A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Kimmi]

I don't know where to put this into a string so guess it will go here. Many of these ideas have been batted around regarding the cliff to be faced in the future and how teams shoould be structured to stay meaningful year after year.

 

Clearly teams should stay withing the luxury cap limit on most years. Penalties are enough to make that a reasonable goal and other teams like Oakland are viable far below the limit.

 

The approach I have heard talked about is developing a core of young players or players in their prime. Keep them under contract for a time which anticipates when the decline might start to become noticeable. The core might be limited to 4 or 5 players and those need to be paid well.

 

Try to develop enough young talent to keep a steady stream of players moving forward onto the team while keeping the payroll manageable. This step can be difficult for teams that have been doing well since they don't get high draft choices. Selection and the development process are both very important factors.

 

Be businesslike when considering contracts to with older players who are past their prime. An example would be the contract given to Pedroia. It was a nice thing to reweard Pedroia for his prior contributions, but didn't make business sense to give a long term contract which will probably not prove benficial to the team.

 

Go for short term contracts at fair market value for experienced players who can fill the team and offer a veteran presence at reasonable cost.

 

Avoid long term contracts for any player over 30 as their decline is imminent, especially pitchers who tend to be fragile. Pay the good ones well but keep the contracts short. Thinking of Price currently and Kimbrel going forward.

 

Free agent evaluation needs to be a high priority and metrics and scouting both use to select those players who can help us. If we see the team has weaknesses an effort can be made to rectify it near the all star break provided there are financial resources available. Bad evaluation in the past have saddled us with Panda and Hanley who really returned much less than the resource extended to them. Those types of contracts can really limit flexibility going forward.

 

Be hard headed and get rid of players and contracts that are underperforming.

 

While we are riding high now, it is hard to keep it going and the team needs a strategy that will keep within the salary structure while continuing to be viable.

 

I am on board with most of this plan.

[sk7326]

I don't know where to put this into a string so guess it will go here. Many of these ideas have been batted around regarding the cliff to be faced in the future and how teams shoould be structured to stay meaningful year after year.

 

Clearly teams should stay withing the luxury cap limit on most years. Penalties are enough to make that a reasonable goal and other teams like Oakland are viable far below the limit.

 

The approach I have heard talked about is developing a core of young players or players in their prime. Keep them under contract for a time which anticipates when the decline might start to become noticeable. The core might be limited to 4 or 5 players and those need to be paid well.

 

Try to develop enough young talent to keep a steady stream of players moving forward onto the team while keeping the payroll manageable. This step can be difficult for teams that have been doing well since they don't get high draft choices. Selection and the development process are both very important factors.

 

Be businesslike when considering contracts to with older players who are past their prime. An example would be the contract given to Pedroia. It was a nice thing to reweard Pedroia for his prior contributions, but didn't make business sense to give a long term contract which will probably not prove benficial to the team.

 

Go for short term contracts at fair market value for experienced players who can fill the team and offer a veteran presence at reasonable cost.

 

Avoid long term contracts for any player over 30 as their decline is imminent, especially pitchers who tend to be fragile. Pay the good ones well but keep the contracts short. Thinking of Price currently and Kimbrel going forward.

 

Free agent evaluation needs to be a high priority and metrics and scouting both use to select those players who can help us. If we see the team has weaknesses an effort can be made to rectify it near the all star break provided there are financial resources available. Bad evaluation in the past have saddled us with Panda and Hanley who really returned much less than the resource extended to them. Those types of contracts can really limit flexibility going forward.

 

Be hard headed and get rid of players and contracts that are underperforming.

 

While we are riding high now, it is hard to keep it going and the team needs a strategy that will keep within the salary structure while continuing to be viable.

 

Not THAT clearly - there are significant monetary penalties. That is an ownership question. The baseball penalties are pretty much nil.

 

You want to develop good players because it's cheaper. You want to have options with your core. Mostly, try not to be stupid - but do something that fits your situation. Boston is a large market team - and has different options available than Oakland. There is no reason to pretend that's not true.

[moonslav59]

Have we finally found a way to get great pitching prospects?

 

 

...the Mets will lose their international scouting director Chris Becerra, who is expected to take a job with the Red Sox.

[oldtimer]

What in the world happened to our pitching today and night?

 

Price wasn't himself, or at least who he was in the second half.

 

Sales velocity and command was subpar.

 

Barnes had velocity but poor command.

 

Kimbrel was wild.

 

It seems like something crazy must have happened with the pitching staff. Hope it doesn't carry over into the PO's. We'll get another look against the Yankees.

[moonslav59]

What in the world happened to our pitching today and night?

 

Price wasn't himself, or at least who he was in the second half.

 

Sales velocity and command was subpar.

 

Barnes had velocity but poor command.

 

Kimbrel was wild.

 

It seems like something crazy must have happened with the pitching staff. Hope it doesn't carry over into the PO's. We'll get another look against the Yankees.

 

I was happy to see Sale get 92 pitches, and I'm not worried about him all that much.

 

I think Price is going to be fine, especially pitching at home vs the Yanks or anywhere vs the A's.

 

Barnes is rusty. I'm hopeful he recovers fully from his injury.

 

Kimbrel is, sadly, not the 2017 Kimbrel. He's still damn good- top 3 in my book.

[Bellhorn04]

With regard to Sale, I think any ideas that he was being phantom DL'd simply to reduce his innings have been put to rest.

[moonslav59]

With regard to Sale, I think any ideas that he was being phantom DL'd simply to reduce his innings have been put to rest.

 

The length of time on the DL might have been highly influenced by our clinching on August 5th.

[oldtimer]

The length of time on the DL might have been highly influenced by our clinching on August 5th.

 

Cora has managed to get our pitching staff a lot of rest, so in my mind he has done what has been necessary to bring the staff into the PO's in their best form. Sadly, the performance of 4 of our key guys yesterday was worse than sub par. There is time for them to recover and for us to compete, we need them. Any wanting to give pitchers long term contracts should be reminded of their frailty by what we see in games like these. Some guys continue to pitch well and have long careers, like Lester, who we unwisely let walk, but by and large pitchers are fragile.

[notin]

What in the world happened to our pitching today and night?

 

Price wasn't himself, or at least who he was in the second half.

 

Sales velocity and command was subpar.

 

Barnes had velocity but poor command.

 

Kimbrel was wild.

 

It seems like something crazy must have happened with the pitching staff. Hope it doesn't carry over into the PO's. We'll get another look against the Yankees.

 

Sale and Barnes have both had extended DL absences and presumably a bit of rust. That doesn't mean both will return to form in the post-season, but certainly does mean they needed to get some work in to get back into game form. As these games are meaningless to the Sox, I don't put any weight in their performances...

[BillyWilliams]

I don't know where to put this into a string so guess it will go here. Many of these ideas have been batted around regarding the cliff to be faced in the future and how teams shoould be structured to stay meaningful year after year.

 

Clearly teams should stay withing the luxury cap limit on most years. Penalties are enough to make that a reasonable goal and other teams like Oakland are viable far below the limit.

 

The approach I have heard talked about is developing a core of young players or players in their prime. Keep them under contract for a time which anticipates when the decline might start to become noticeable. The core might be limited to 4 or 5 players and those need to be paid well.

 

Try to develop enough young talent to keep a steady stream of players moving forward onto the team while keeping the payroll manageable. This step can be difficult for teams that have been doing well since they don't get high draft choices. Selection and the development process are both very important factors.

 

Be businesslike when considering contracts to with older players who are past their prime. An example would be the contract given to Pedroia. It was a nice thing to reweard Pedroia for his prior contributions, but didn't make business sense to give a long term contract which will probably not prove benficial to the team.

 

Go for short term contracts at fair market value for experienced players who can fill the team and offer a veteran presence at reasonable cost.

 

Avoid long term contracts for any player over 30 as their decline is imminent, especially pitchers who tend to be fragile. Pay the good ones well but keep the contracts short. Thinking of Price currently and Kimbrel going forward.

 

Free agent evaluation needs to be a high priority and metrics and scouting both use to select those players who can help us. If we see the team has weaknesses an effort can be made to rectify it near the all star break provided there are financial resources available. Bad evaluation in the past have saddled us with Panda and Hanley who really returned much less than the resource extended to them. Those types of contracts can really limit flexibility going forward.

 

Be hard headed and get rid of players and contracts that are underperforming.

 

While we are riding high now, it is hard to keep it going and the team needs a strategy that will keep within the salary structure while continuing to be viable.

 

Would you like a pet unicorn as well?

[Bellhorn04]

The length of time on the DL might have been highly influenced by our clinching on August 5th.

 

Maybe, but there's no way he's 100%.

 

Hopefully he's 90%, at least.

[S5Dewey]

Sale and Barnes have both had extended DL absences and presumably a bit of rust. That doesn't mean both will return to form in the post-season, but certainly does mean they needed to get some work in to get back into game form. As these games are meaningless to the Sox, I don't put any weight in their performances...

 

I agree. These players aren't as motivated as they might be were the games meaningful.

[notin]

I agree. These players aren't as motivated as they might be were the games meaningful.

 

I'd say they are being wise an cautious. No point throwing out your elbow at the end of September when October is so close...

[moonslav59]

Maybe, but there's no way he's 100%.

 

Hopefully he's 90%, at least.

 

The game after his first DL stint was perhaps his best this year.

 

I am confident he can be at 100% by game 1.

[S5Dewey]

I'd say they are being wise an cautious. No point throwing out your elbow at the end of September when October is so close...

 

I agree to some extent. But there's also no point in throwing out your elbow in June (or September) when you could be looking at a potential multi-million dollar contract. That's two good reasons not to be motivated in September.

[notin]

I agree to some extent. But there's also no point in throwing out your elbow in June (or September) when you could be looking at a potential multi-million dollar contract. That's two good reasons not to be motivated in September.

 

Well, that depends what has been clinched. The Cubs and Brewers are probably both still pretty motivated.

 

And I would suspect some of the most motivated players are the AAA call ups who want to put on a show so they can be considered options for jobs next year that don't involve bus rides...

[FredLynn]

Maybe, but there's no way he's 100%.

 

Hopefully he's 90%, at least.

 

Not with a FB under 90mph.

 

Here is what Sale said to the media after the game. Its clear he wasn't just holding back and saving his velocity for the playoffs:

""Obviously I'm not where I want to be," is what Sale told the media after the game.

 

Then he talked about not creating the torque he creates when he is at his best, and his manager talked about how Sale's hips weren't firing, and said there would be a bullpen session this week.

 

"Hopefully he can fix it," is what Cora said."

Edited September 27, 2018 by FredLynn

[moonslav59]

Not with a FB under 90mph.

 

Here is what Sale said to the media after the game. Its clear he wasn't just holding back and saving his velocity for the playoffs:

""Obviously I'm not where I want to be," is what Sale told the media after the game.

 

Then he talked about not creating the torque he creates when he is at his best, and his manager talked about how Sale's hips weren't firing, and said there would be a bullpen session this week.

 

"Hopefully he can fix it," is what Cora said."

 

It's all a smoke screen.

 

Sale is going to blow the Yankees away in game 1.

 

Book it.

 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Not with a FB under 90mph.

 

Here is what Sale said to the media after the game. Its clear he wasn't just holding back and saving his velocity for the playoffs:

""Obviously I'm not where I want to be," is what Sale told the media after the game.

 

Then he talked about not creating the torque he creates when he is at his best, and his manager talked about how Sale's hips weren't firing, and said there would be a bullpen session this week.

 

"Hopefully he can fix it," is what Cora said."

 

Yeah I was not expecting that last night, very very concerning.

[harmony]

It's all a smoke screen.

 

Sale is going to blow the Yankees away in game 1.

 

Book it.

 

Is that in reference to the two-game series April 16-17, 2019?

 

Boston Red Sox Schedule | Boston Red Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

That may be the next time the Red Sox meet the Yankees ... or not.

[moonslav59]

Is that in reference to the two-game series April 16-17, 2019?

 

Boston Red Sox Schedule | Boston Red Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

That may be the next time the Red Sox meet the Yankees ... or not.

 

The "smoke screen" I'm talking about is the quotes made after the game.

 

I think it's all pretend.

 

Sale will be lights out in game 1 of the playoffs.

 

[kenmeister]

The "smoke screen" I'm talking about is the quotes made after the game.

 

I think it's all pretend.

 

Sale will be lights out in game 1 of the playoffs.

 

 

I don't share your enthusiasm. I think he has real shoulder issues. But I hope you're right!

[moonslav59]

I don't share your enthusiasm. I think he has real shoulder issues. But I hope you're right!

 

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic.

 

I think his game back after his first DL was his best all year. That gives me reason to hope it never was anything major.

 

I think he would have 180+ IP right now, if we were fighting for a playoff slot.

 

I don't fault anyone for being concerned or very concerned.

 

I do think 92 pitches was nice to see. He now has about 10 days off. I'm sure he'll pitch a simulated game or something in between.

 

 

I will end with this, if he was at 100%, wouldn't this be a nice smoke screen to throw out there?

 

[BillyWilliams]

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic.

 

I think his game back after his first DL was his best all year. That gives me reason to hope it never was anything major.

 

I think he would have 180+ IP right now, if we were fighting for a playoff slot.

 

I don't fault anyone for being concerned or very concerned.

 

I do think 92 pitches was nice to see. He now has about 10 days off. I'm sure he'll pitch a simulated game or something in between.

 

 

I will end with this, if he was at 100%, wouldn't this be a nice smoke screen to throw out there?

 

 

That I highly doubt

[moonslav59]

That I highly doubt

 

If Sale was the Patriots QB, then maybe....

[Kimmi]

It's all a smoke screen.

 

Sale is going to blow the Athletics away in game 1.

 

Book it.

 

 

I fixed that for you, but that's what I was going to say.

 

This team has the other playoff contenders right where we want them.

[moonslav59]

I fixed that for you, but that's what I was going to say.

 

This team has the other playoff contenders right where we want them.

 

I hope you're right.

[Slasher9]

Sale is fine. They saved enough bullets in his arm for a nice October run. Good job by Cora managing his innings this season.

[moonslav59]

No game tonight, so a look at 2019...(before any trades or signings/re-signings)

 

Corrected....

 

(in Luxury Tax Dollars)

$31.0M Price

$22.0M Martinez

$20.6M Porcello

$18.5M Sandoval

$15.1M Pedroia

$15M Sale

$6.5M Moreland

$5.0M Nunez

$4.5M Vazquez

($138M Sub Total)

 

Arb Estimates

$18M Betts (2 of 3 arbs)

$12M Bogaerts (3/4)

$9M Bradley (3/4)

$6M Rodriguez (2/4)

$4M Holt (3/3)

$2.5M Wright (2/3)

$2.5M Leon (3/4)

$1.5M Barnes (1/3)

$1.0M Hembree (1/3)

$1.0M Swihart (1/4)

($58M Sub Total)

 

$196M Total for 17 Roster Slots

 

Bubble/Non Tender Arbs?

$2.5M Thornburg (3/3)

$1.0M C Smith (2/3)

 

$10.5M the other twenty-three players on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M player benefits

 

$221M Total

 

2019 CB Tax Threshold: $206M

 

If we want to straddle the $40M line again, we might have $25M to spend and these major holes to plug:

 

1. Closer

2. Set Up man

3. Set Up man

4. 2B and/or 3B

5. Possible: C, RP, SP, 4th OF

 

 

Edited September 28, 2018 by moonslav59

[Slasher9]

the Orioles are 60.5 GB of the Sox with 3 games to go. has any team ever finished 60+ games behind the division winner in the history of the game?

going to poke around BR to see if i can find another...