A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

That and not going with the cold hand.

 

Moreland may be heating up too? 4 hits and 3 walks in his last 3 games.

[moonslav59]

Moreland may be heating up too? 4 hits and 3 walks in his last 3 games.

 

I'd like to feel optimistic with Moreland, but it's hard.

[vegasbob]

Final Sox OPS Numbers

1.078 Betts

1.031 JDM

.901 Pearce

.883 Bogey

.830 Beni

.774 Holt

.758 Moreland

.731 Devers

.717 JBJ

.677 Nunez

.613 Swihart

.604 Kinsler

.540 Vaz

.511 Leon

 

2nd Half

1.021 JDM

.995 Betts

.872 Bogey

.832 Pearce

.827 JBJ

.809 Holt

.781 Devers

.736 Nunez

.727 Beni

.706 Swihart

.604 Kinsler

.600 Moreland

.499 Vaz

.330 Leon

 

Past 30 Days

1.268 Lin (24 PAs)

1.123 Holt

1.120 Betts

.987 Bogey

.898 JDM

.828 Pearce

.826 JBJ

.807 Devers

 

To all the doom & gloomers who also just look at most recent numbers, isn't have 9 guys over .807 supposed to be encouraging?

 

.713 Swihart

.707 Nunez

.667 Beni

.604 Moreland

.510 Kinsler

.499 Vaz

.139 Leon

 

 

 

Great list for comparisons. Looking at both the second half and 30 day list, the standout name to me is Benintendi and his place among peers. Moreland's story is not good by any measure but I think the expectations for Beni are much higher than Morelands. Beni did carry his BA well but with rare displays of power. The two primary catchers are pitiful and should be limited to bunting.

 

JBJr certainly climbed out of a dark deep hole over the second half and is an asset hitting #9

[Bellhorn04]

I'd like to feel optimistic with Moreland, but it's hard.

 

It's a small quibble, but you don't seem to be practicing what you preach when you tell others not to be heavily influenced by small samples and recent results.

 

Over their careers, Moreland has been a better hitter than Holt and a better first baseman as well.

[moonslav59]

It's a small quibble, but you don't seem to be practicing what you preach when you tell others not to be heavily influenced by small samples and recent results.

 

Over their careers, Moreland has been a better hitter than Holt and a better first baseman as well.

 

I'm talking recent 4 month sample size.

 

I'm talking a .600 second half OPS this year, .736 last year and .713 career.

 

Plus, I didn't say I'd definitely bench him. Holt has hardly played 1B all year, and Pearce has a long record of not doing well vs righties.

 

I'd probbaly start Moreland, but I'd bat him 7th behind JBJ and in front of Kinsler and our catcher.

 

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

 

This year's quest to make Bogaerts more aggressive was a success. He had a +12% change in swinging at pitches in the zone and +20% change at swinging at middle-middle pitches.

 

His average launch angle went from 8° to 13°, Hard Hit% from 32% to 42%, and 6 Barrels to 41.

[OH FOY]

@redsoxstats

 

This year's quest to make Bogaerts more aggressive was a success. He had a +12% change in swinging at pitches in the zone and +20% change at swinging at middle-middle pitches.

 

His average launch angle went from 8° to 13°, Hard Hit% from 32% to 42%, and 6 Barrels to 41.

 

Good stuff, X-Man is going to be very important in the Play-offs, if teams try to take the bat out of JD's hands. Benni is going to have step up too.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

 

This year's quest to make Bogaerts more aggressive was a success. He had a +12% change in swinging at pitches in the zone and +20% change at swinging at middle-middle pitches.

 

His average launch angle went from 8° to 13°, Hard Hit% from 32% to 42%, and 6 Barrels to 41.

 

I'm impressed with the jump growth on offense from Bogey. We really needed upticks from a few of our players after 2017's near total downturns. (Only Vaz went up last year.)

 

It's also nice to see JBJ put together a solid 4 months after having a month where he hit the ball hard with little success. I think this has been his longest stretch of consistently good hitting.

 

If Beni can bounce back, we're looking at 5 solid hitters (Betts, JD, Bogey, Beni & JBJ) and some good supporting hitters like Pearce, Devers and Holt to go along with those 5. Maybe Moreland, Kinsler and a catcher can contribute here and there, too.

 

[mvp 78]

@MikeSilvermanBB

 

You and I never saw a Red Sox regular-season team as good as this one.

They won exactly 2 out of every 3 games they played.

They never lost more than 3 in a row.

They won 108 times.

Before the playoffs begin, stop and smell the roses they brought you.

[moonslav59]

@MikeSilvermanBB

 

You and I never saw a Red Sox regular-season team as good as this one.

They won exactly 2 out of every 3 games they played.

They never lost more than 3 in a row.

They won 108 times.

Before the playoffs begin, stop and smell the roses they brought you.

 

Never losing 4 in a row is amazing!

 

5 positions with an OPS over .825 and only 2 below .711.

 

5 batting slots over .796 and only 2 below .684.

 

.854 OPS in High Leverage.

 

Pitching?

 

Home and Away Opps against both between .695 and .703.

 

.649 OPS against in High Leverage.

[Bellhorn04]

Never losing 4 in a row is amazing!

 

It is amazing, what may be more amazing is that they also did this in 2013.

[moonslav59]

It is amazing, what may be more amazing is that they also did this in 2013.

 

Let's hope things end the same way.

[oldtimer]

Let's hope things end the same way.

 

The first two PO games are moving along with the Brewers beating the Cubs 3 to 1 and now the Dodgers ahead of the Rockies 4 to 0 in the 6th. PO games tend to be lower scoring with pitching more of a factor. Our pitchig needs to hold up in the PO's to give us a shot at moving ahead. Our offense is very solid so pitching is the make or break for us.

[oldtimer]

Great list for comparisons. Looking at both the second half and 30 day list, the standout name to me is Benintendi and his place among peers. Moreland's story is not good by any measure but I think the expectations for Beni are much higher than Morelands. Beni did carry his BA well but with rare displays of power. The two primary catchers are pitiful and should be limited to bunting.

 

JBJr certainly climbed out of a dark deep hole over the second half and is an asset hitting #9

 

There were several stories about how Benintendi bulked up in the offseason because he said he tended to lose weight over the long grind. He worked with weights so put on muscle to get to 185 or 190 pounds (depending on which you believe) on his 5'10" frame (also mentioned as generous). So, he had packed on weight and strength sufficient to up his power, and by what I have seen, he still looks stockier than he did last year. The point is that there are reasons to believe he would hit for more power this year.

 

So what happened that his power tailed off since the AS break? I have attributed it to his reluctance or inability to pull the ball. Many ball he fouls to the left field side and he hits there or to center. Much less often will he pull the ball and in a place like Yankee stadium it would be made for him. The kid has a pretty swing and makes a lot of contact and for this year we have to be satisfied having a table setter, which he has done fairly well.

[moonslav59]

There were several stories about how Benintendi bulked up in the offseason because he said he tended to lose weight over the long grind. He worked with weights so put on muscle to get to 185 or 190 pounds (depending on which you believe) on his 5'10" frame (also mentioned as generous). So, he had packed on weight and strength sufficient to up his power, and by what I have seen, he still looks stockier than he did last year. The point is that there are reasons to believe he would hit for more power this year.

 

So what happened that his power tailed off since the AS break? I have attributed it to his reluctance or inability to pull the ball. Many ball he fouls to the left field side and he hits there or to center. Much less often will he pull the ball and in a place like Yankee stadium it would be made for him. The kid has a pretty swing and makes a lot of contact and for this year we have to be satisfied having a table setter, which he has done fairly well.

 

Sometimes players just go through tough stretches. Maybe he failed to adjust to something pitchers found out about him.

 

Maybe, he just stopped pulling balls he should have pulled.

 

Maybe he has an injury that has been kept quiet.

 

Maybe, maybe...

 

Maybe he busts out of the slump this October.

[S5Dewey]

There were several stories about how Benintendi bulked up in the offseason because he said he tended to lose weight over the long grind. He worked with weights so put on muscle to get to 185 or 190 pounds (depending on which you believe) on his 5'10" frame (also mentioned as generous). So, he had packed on weight and strength sufficient to up his power, and by what I have seen, he still looks stockier than he did last year. The point is that there are reasons to believe he would hit for more power this year.

 

So what happened that his power tailed off since the AS break? I have attributed it to his reluctance or inability to pull the ball. Many ball he fouls to the left field side and he hits there or to center. Much less often will he pull the ball and in a place like Yankee stadium it would be made for him. The kid has a pretty swing and makes a lot of contact and for this year we have to be satisfied having a table setter, which he has done fairly well.

 

It could be that he's just plain tired. It's been a long season since February with a lot of baseball being played and it's very possible that he hasn't learned how to pace himself . IMO it's very possible that these few days off will give him a chance to rest and rejuvinate himself. We'll see.

[Larry Cook]

It could be that he's just plain tired. It's been a long season since February with a lot of baseball being played and it's very possible that he hasn't learned how to pace himself . IMO it's very possible that these few days off will give him a chance to rest and rejuvinate himself. We'll see.

 

Or the rest throws his timing out of whack and he becomes an automatic out!

[Bellhorn04]

Or the rest throws his timing out of whack and he becomes an automatic out!

 

Kind of hard to say whose side you're really on sometimes.

[moonslav59]

Kind of hard to say whose side you're really on sometimes.

 

The pessimism is never-ending.

[cp176]

Larry very well might be right regardless of whether he comes off as being particularly pessimistic from time to time. No one can have the right answer to the Benintendi question. I would have to say fellas that if Larry sounds pessimistic with that comment then our "cliff dwellers" do cast a very dark shadow on our future despite all of the figures and statistical evidence they have to support their stand. It is all just a guess. No one knows what the future might hold. I'm solidly on the optimistic side of that coin. Benintendi has been and will be just fine and that there really is no impending cliff.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not sure how anyone can be pessimistic on Beni. The kid rakes. He just put up a 4.3WAR while being negative on the defensive side. I think people saw him coming up and thought he'd be a big time power hitter, but his calling card was his hitting skill, not his raw power. He might be a 20-25HR guy forever, but if he reaches base at a .360 clip, hits .290 and adds in 20 or so stolen bases, he will be a 4-5 win player every single year. He also just turned 24, which is the standard age that most players debut.

[moonslav59]

Not sure how anyone can be pessimistic on Beni. The kid rakes. He just put up a 4.3WAR while being negative on the defensive side. I think people saw him coming up and thought he'd be a big time power hitter, but his calling card was his hitting skill, not his raw power. He might be a 20-25HR guy forever, but if he reaches base at a .360 clip, hits .290 and adds in 20 or so stolen bases, he will be a 4-5 win player every single year. He also just turned 24, which is the standard age that most players debut.

 

I think he'll average around .300 to .310 over the next 8 years. I can see his OBP nearing .390-.400.

 

15-25 HRs seems about right.

[oldtimer]

I think he'll average around .300 to .310 over the next 8 years. I can see his OBP nearing .390-.400.

 

15-25 HRs seems about right.

 

If he and/or the coaching staff feel he needs to make further adjustments to get back some of his power, he should not attempt to do that going into the playoffs. He can contribute a lot by being a table setter and a guy with a good on base percentage. The time to experiment is the off season and spring training.

[S5Dewey]

If he and/or the coaching staff feel he needs to make further adjustments to get back some of his power, he should not attempt to do that going into the playoffs. He can contribute a lot by being a table setter and a guy with a good on base percentage. The time to experiment is the off season and spring training.

 

Your lips to Cora's ears, OT!

[jacksonianmarch]

I think he'll average around .300 to .310 over the next 8 years. I can see his OBP nearing .390-.400.

 

15-25 HRs seems about right.

 

He's an interesting guy for sure. He brings a lot to the table. I also wonder if his defensive metrics are hurt by playing LF in Fenway. He reminds me of a young Markakis sans the defensive reputation.

[sk7326]

He's an interesting guy for sure. He brings a lot to the table. I also wonder if his defensive metrics are hurt by playing LF in Fenway. He reminds me of a young Markakis sans the defensive reputation.

 

Yes on the defense. I don't know a LF who has played at Fenway (for Boston) who has NOT had crappy defensive metrics. I've posited UZR has issues with odd-shaped outfields ... and there is none odder than LF in Fenway. (just so many fewer chances to make plays for LF)

[mvp 78]

Yes on the defense. I don't know a LF who has played at Fenway (for Boston) who has NOT had crappy defensive metrics. I've posited UZR has issues with odd-shaped outfields ... and there is none odder than LF in Fenway. (just so many fewer chances to make plays for LF)

 

His UZR in LF is 5.8. His UZR in CF is -11.7. Him playing CF every so often is a bigger drag on his dWAR than Fenway's wall.

[moonslav59]

His UZR in LF is 5.8. His UZR in CF is -11.7. Him playing CF every so often is a bigger drag on his dWAR than Fenway's wall.

 

A big head's up for those who want us to trade JBJ and move beni to CF.

[sk7326]

A big head's up for those who want us to trade JBJ and move beni to CF.

 

He wouldn't be the guy to move ...

[OH FOY]

Bradley got to have a good Post Season Offensively, he's got to flip that Line-up, and be on base as much as possible, so teams will have to Pitch to Betts. This is an important Post-Season for Bradley, with the bat. Cannot have repeat of last 2 Post-Seasons with him. Very important part of this line-up this Post-Season, need him bad with the bat. Edited October 2, 2018 by OH FOY!