A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Sometimes our perceptions are different than reality. Clearly the catchers have had a miserable 2nd half. Beni has hit the ball but not with as much authority and Moreland has been slumping. Be good to see the guys heat up at the right time. Be interesting to see what our homer rate has been as a team over the 2nd half versus the first. Seems like it has dropped. Beni for instance is 2 for 16 in the 2nd half and others also have marked differences.

 

HRs

 

1st half: 92 in 3065 ABs (.030)

 

2nd half: 76 in 2604 ABs (.291)

 

About 1 HR less per 110 ABs.

 

92/3445 PAs (.0267)

76/2893 PAs (.0263)

 

One less HR every 250 PAs.

 

Edited September 20, 2018 by moonslav59

[Slasher9]

HRs

 

1st half: 92 in 3065 ABs (.030)

 

2nd half: 76 in 2604 ABs (.291)

 

About 1 HR less per 110 ABs.

 

92/3445 PAs (.0267)

76/2893 PAs (.0263)

 

One less HR every 250 PAs.

 

 

i think your numbers are off. i am showing a total of 189 so far this season.

[BillyWilliams]

i think your numbers are off. i am showing a total of 189 so far this season.

 

Yes, espn has them listed currently 7th in the AL with 189 HR's

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/league/al/sort/homeRuns/order/true

[Bellhorn04]

HRs

 

1st half: 92 in 3065 ABs (.030)

 

2nd half: 76 in 2604 ABs (.291)

 

About 1 HR less per 110 ABs.

 

92/3445 PAs (.0267)

76/2893 PAs (.0263)

 

One less HR every 250 PAs.

 

 

Those are 2017 numbers.

 

Stats provided by Mister Magoo LOL

[BillyWilliams]

those are 2017 numbers.

 

Stats provided by mister magoo lol

 

lol

[moonslav59]

i think your numbers are off. i am showing a total of 189 so far this season.

 

I'm losing it, slash. I had 2017 up for some reason.

 

Here are the 2018 numbers for HRs:

 

by ABs

1st: 134/3415 (.039)

2nd: 55/1835 (.030)

That's 1 more HR about every 110 ABs

 

by PAs

1st: 134/3808 (.035)

2nd: 55/2065 (.027)

 

That's one more HR every 125 PAs.

 

We have been walking more...

 

BBs per PA

1st half 324/3808 (.085)

2nd half: 194/2065 (.094)

 

[oldtimer]

I'm losing it, slash. I had 2017 up for some reason.

 

Here are the 2018 numbers for HRs:

 

by ABs

1st: 134/3415 (.039)

2nd: 55/1835 (.030)

That's 1 more HR about every 110 ABs

 

by PAs

1st: 134/3808 (.035)

2nd: 55/2065 (.027)

 

That's one more HR every 125 PAs.

 

We have been walking more...

 

BBs per PA

1st half 324/3808 (.085)

2nd half: 194/2065 (.094)

 

 

Looking at the MLBB projections, they have the following: A total of 11 HR's thru the end of the regular season.

 

2 each for Mookie and JDM

1 each for Bogie, Beni, Kinsler, Pearse, Moreland, Devers amd Bradley

 

It would have been nice for us to exploit the short right field at Yankee stadium, but we have faced tough pitching so far so no dice.

 

The Yankees look more like the NY Giants at the plate. They go from large to huge. Tough for a lefty to pitch to them, especially when trying to hit the outside corner on a righty.

[OH FOY]

Sox are 80-20 when they hit at least One HR. 23-29 without a HR. Looking like last years Offense. Edited September 20, 2018 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Sox are 80-20 when they hit at least One HR. 23-29 without a HR. Looking like last years Offense. These are the stats you want Wins and Losses. Too much Einstein mode around here.

 

Except last year the Sox were dead last in the AL in home runs by a wide margin. This year, they're seventh and one good inning away from sixth...

[OH FOY]

Except last year the Sox were dead last in the AL in home runs by a wide margin. This year, they're seventh and one good inning away from sixth...

 

You think team last year in same spot, was 60 games over .500? Team, that finished 7th in HRS? I'll check.

[OH FOY]

Except last year the Sox were dead last in the AL in home runs by a wide margin. This year, they're seventh and one good inning away from sixth...

 

Actually what it tells me is the importance of JD Martinez.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm losing it, slash. I had 2017 up for some reason.

 

Here are the 2018 numbers for HRs:

 

by ABs

1st: 134/3415 (.039)

2nd: 55/1835 (.030)

That's 1 more HR about every 110 ABs

 

by PAs

1st: 134/3808 (.035)

2nd: 55/2065 (.027)

 

That's one more HR every 125 PAs.

 

Another way to look at it:

 

1st half: 1.37 HR per game

2nd half: 1.02 HR per game

 

It's a 34% difference.

[moonslav59]

Another way to look at it:

 

1st half: 1.37 HR per game

2nd half: 1.02 HR per game

 

It's a 34% difference.

 

It's a big difference, but we've proven we can still win without HRs.

 

We are at .648 in the second half (35-19) and we were at .698 in the first half.

 

A 5% differential is big, but I still like our 65% winning percent in the second half.

 

For reference, our .648 number in the second half compares to these full season numbers:

 

.590 in 1986

.593 in 2007

.594 in 1975

.599 in 2013

.605 in 2004

.607 in 1978

 

[moonslav59]

Future contract notes:

 

Sale's 2019 option is $15M not $13.5 due to finishing in the top 5 in Cy Young in the past.

 

Nunez saw his 2019 option go up from $4M to $5M by reaching 400 PAs this year.

 

Moreland probably won't make the $25K he gets for reaching 500 PAs. He has 435 now.

 

Price may opt out after this year.

 

JD may opt out after next year with $2.5M buyout. or after 2020 (no buyout).

[BillyWilliams]

Future contract notes:

 

Sale's 2019 option is $15M not $13.5 due to finishing in the top 5 in Cy Young in the past.

 

Nunez saw his 2019 option go up from $4M to $5M by reaching 400 PAs this year.

 

Moreland probably won't make the $25K he gets for reaching 500 PAs. He has 435 now.

 

Price may opt out after this year.

 

JD may opt out after next year with $2.5M buyout. or after 2020 (no buyout).

 

Even with price pitching better as of late, I still doubt very much that he opts out.

 

Obviously if jd continues to put up monster numbers, there is a chance he could opt out, but I would think it might depend on what the market for bats is that offseason.

[moonslav59]

Even with price pitching better as of late, I still doubt very much that he opts out.

 

Obviously if jd continues to put up monster numbers, there is a chance he could opt out, but I would think it might depend on what the market for bats is that offseason.

 

I agree. I'd put Price's chances of opting out at less than 1%.

 

I'm not sure about JD. He'll be 2 years older and looking more and more like a DH/4th OF'er type.

 

I also think we can probably afford to give JD a bump is salary to keep him here, if we choose to do so.

 

[Carpin]

Future contract notes:

 

Sale's 2019 option is $15M not $13.5 due to finishing in the top 5 in Cy Young in the past.

 

Nunez saw his 2019 option go up from $4M to $5M by reaching 400 PAs this year.

 

Moreland probably won't make the $25K he gets for reaching 500 PAs. He has 435 now.

 

Price may opt out after this year.

 

JD may opt out after next year with $2.5M buyout. or after 2020 (no buyout).

 

Price is not opting out unless he has a huge postseason, no way he gets a contract similar to the one he has in the open market

[moonslav59]

Price is not opting out unless he has a huge postseason, no way he gets a contract similar to the one he has in the open market

 

He could go 5-0 0.00 and he ain't opting out.

[notin]

He could go 5-0 0.00 and he ain't opting out.

 

The only way he opts out is if he really wants to leave. But even then, his agent (whom he did hire for career advice) would strongly recommend against it....

[moonslav59]

The only way he opts out is if he really wants to leave. But even then, his agent (whom he did hire for career advice) would strongly recommend against it....

 

He won't need his agent to know to stay.

[Station 13]

Didn't Price recently said he won't be opting out?

[a700hitter]

Didn't Price recently said he won't be opting out?

Yes, he did. He said he came to Boston to be on a winning team, so he will not be going to another team with less of a chance of winning.

 

Edit: The hope of him opting out was ridiculously illogical. If he was playing well enough for him to opt out, it meant that he was playing for us at or below market value.

Edited September 20, 2018 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

Didn't Price recently said he won't be opting out?

 

Yes, but it's what GMs want to hear. It could be posturing, but I think he was sincere.

 

It rings of truth.

[moonslav59]

Here's a look at the AL Playoff SP'ers (fWAR used):

(Ranked among only 5 playoff team pitchers. In theory, 5 teams x 5 SP'er makes the sample size 25 pitchers)

BOS

1. Sale 6.2

12. Price 2.9

15. Porcello 2.6

17. ERod 2.2

22. Eovaldi 1.6

HOU

2. Verlander 6.0

4. G Cole 5.7

9. Keuchel 3.5

11. Morton 2.9

16.. McCullers 2.3 (to the pen)

CLE

3. Bauer 6.0 (Injured)

6. Kluber 4.9

7. Carrasco 4.9

8. Clevinger 4.3

14. Bieber 2.6

NYY

5. Severino 5.5

10. Happ 3.0

13. Tanaka 2.7

18. Lynn 2.5

19. Sabathia 2.1

23. Gray 1.6

OAK

20. Cahil 1.9

21. Manaea 1.8(injured)

24. Anderson 1.0

25. Montas 0.9

26. Jackson 0.8

 

 

[S5Dewey]

Here's a look at the AL Playoff SP'ers (fWAR used):

(Ranked among only 5 playoff team pitchers. In theory, 5 teams x 5 SP'er makes the sample size 25 pitchers)

BOS

1. Sale 6.2

12. Price 2.9

15. Porcello 2.6

17. ERod 2.2

22. Eovaldi 1.6

HOU

2. Verlander 6.0

4. G Cole 5.7

9. Keuchel 3.5

11. Morton 2.9

16.. McCullers 2.3 (to the pen)

CLE

3. Bauer 6.0 (Injured)

6. Kluber 4.9

7. Carrasco 4.9

8. Clevinger 4.3

14. Bieber 2.6

NYY

5. Severino 5.5

10. Happ 3.0

13. Tanaka 2.7

18. Lynn 2.5

19. Sabathia 2.1

23. Gray 1.6

OAK

20. Cahil 1.9

21. Manaea 1.8(injured)

24. Anderson 1.0

25. Montas 0.9

26. Jackson 0.8

 

 

 

I see and appreciate what you're doing there but it raises a point. Those WARs are against a cross-section of hitters, essentially an average of all teams and hitters. It may not be realistic to think that, for example, Justin Verlander will perform as well against Mookie, JDM, & Co. as they do against the average teams.

 

I like our offense better than anyone else's (except maybe the Y's in YS) so I'm optimistic.

 

Another reason I'm optimistic is because of all the late inning scoring the Sox have done. It just may be that the Sox (like everyone else) will have trouble with other team's top pitchers but they can clean up against their bullpens. IMO it will be incumbent on our starters not to be shutdown guys but rather to keep the team in the game. The offense will take care of the rest later in the game. But shutdown is good too.

[OH FOY]

Houston really hits Lefties good, something to think about going forward.

[Maxbialystock]

Price still has 4 years on an insane contract of over $30M year. In the first three years (almost) of his contract, he has been worth about 1/2 of that $30M+/year.

 

So how did the subject of his opting out even come up?

 

To me that would be like Pablo and HanRam wiring DD and asking him to please discontinue those monthly salary checks because they feel they haven't earned them.

[moonslav59]

I see and appreciate what you're doing there but it raises a point. Those WARs are against a cross-section of hitters, essentially an average of all teams and hitters. It may not be realistic to think that, for example, Justin Verlander will perform as well against Mookie, JDM, & Co. as they do against the average teams.

 

I like our offense better than anyone else's (except maybe the Y's in YS) so I'm optimistic.

 

Another reason I'm optimistic is because of all the late inning scoring the Sox have done. It just may be that the Sox (like everyone else) will have trouble with other team's top pitchers but they can clean up against their bullpens. IMO it will be incumbent on our starters not to be shutdown guys but rather to keep the team in the game. The offense will take care of the rest later in the game. But shutdown is good too.

 

Well, our pitchers never had to face our hitters, so maybe their WAR would be worse, if they did.

 

I like our top 3-4 starters as much as anyone else's.

 

I like our line-up more than anyone else's.

 

I like our defense more than any other AL playoff team's.

 

We are second in SBs.

 

I like our chances more than anyone else's to win it all, but those chances are still well below 50%.

[sk7326]

Right - I love this team. But it's baseball - and no baseball team is a good bet vs the field.

[moonslav59]

Right - I love this team. But it's baseball - and no baseball team is a good bet vs the field.

 

Ever.