A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[sk7326]

There a LOT of teams that can beat one of the playoff teams in 4 games out of 7.

[moonslav59]

My view is that each of the PO teams has strong starting pitching and also strong relief pitching. Each also has very good defense. The point being that I expect games to be low scoring where a couple of hits or conversely errors may be citical in determining the series end results.

 

To me Red Sox pitching ranks behind the Astros and Cleveland, while I haven't seen enough of Oakland to know. To me, the Yankee pitching rates behind the others.

 

As far as defense, I believe our outfield and catcher defense is as good or better than the other teams while our infield tends to lack range and can be slightly error prone. The Yankees infield defense without Gregorious is weaker. They tend to make a lot of errors and if they use Sanchez catching they are bad there too.

 

As far as run scoring we lead BB in that but we can't afford to have many weak spots in the lineup. Players mired in slumps are not suddenly going to come out of them when facing top pitching from PO caliber teams. The only case to me made for going with them is if their defense is enough of a plus to counter the easy out (or double play) they become. I'll be interested to see how Cora handles things, but if it were me calling the shots, I would go with the hot hands. That would be Holt over Kinsler for certain and probably Nunez over Devers. Catcher is that gray area where starting pitching should have their say and the alternative is not that much superior offensively.

 

I think it is wrong to abandon what got us to the best record ever out of fear over a weak spot or two in our lineup. Other teams have more weak links in their line-up.

 

Weakest OPS by position by AL playoff teams:

 

.542 BOS C

.660 BOS 2B

.698 BOS 3B

(We have no other position below .785.)

 

.677 HOU C

.701 HOU SS

.708 HOU CF

.711 HOU LF

 

.693 NYY C

.716 NYY LF

.732 NYY 1B

.736 NYY 2B

 

.650 CLE CF

.666 CLE 2B

.672 CLE C

.722 CLE 1B

.725 CLE RF

 

.611 OAK C

.698 OAK SS

.711 OAK CF

.754 OAK LF

 

Note: No AL playoff team has a catcher OPS above .693. We aren't losing a ton of ground to other AL playoff teams at catcher offense.

 

[moonslav59]

The Guardians have edges all around the infield, at catcher and in the starting rotation.

 

 

We have better 1B offense and defense.

 

We have better Catcher defense, when the whole picture is considered.

 

Our 2B offense is about even, and Kinsler has solidified our 2B defense.

[dgalehouse]

Yeah we all thought Cleveland was the most favorable ALDS opponent two years ago, too.

 

Then they swept us...

 

Does that mean you would rather play the Astros?

[notin]

Does that mean you would rather play the Astros?

 

Actually, I think I might.

 

The Guardians can throw 4 of the top 10 starting pitchers by fWAR at you. The Astros only have 3.

 

It's a tough call. Both rotations overmatch the Sox rotation, even with Sale.

 

The real big difference is the Guardians' bullpen is pretty bad, while the Astros is very good.

 

But in a playoff series, I think I prefer going up against the team not managed by Terry Francona...

[dgalehouse]

I just think the Astros are a better team and more formidable opponent. I think the oddsmakers would agree with that. Of course, it goes without saying that all the postseason teams are dangerous and capable of winning.

[notin]

I just think the Astros are a better team and more formidable opponent. I think the oddsmakers would agree with that. Of course, it goes without saying that all the postseason teams are dangerous and capable of winning.

 

Especially those Francona-lead teams...

[cp176]

There a LOT of teams that can beat one of the playoff teams in 4 games out of 7.

 

this is the truth. pretty sure that all Sox fans do and should feel confident but I think that although wonderful all of this years accomplishments go to the back burner - anything can happen now!

[Slasher9]

Just glad that game 7 will be at Fenway

[cp176]

Just glad that game 7 will be at Fenway

 

I'm with you. That is so true. Not everyone here thinks that home field makes any difference though. Oh well - I sure as hell do and I'm guessing the players do as well.

[kenmeister]

I need to see Chris Sale pitch 7 strong innings in his final start before I get optimistic about our playoff chances. I also would like to see JDM heat up like Mookie did after he got some rest.

[moonslav59]

Especially those Francona-lead teams...

 

If Tito was managing the Sox right now, he'd have been roasted alive for our Pythagorean record differential.

[oldtimer]

I don't know where to put this into a string so guess it will go here. Many of these ideas have been batted around regarding the cliff to be faced in the future and how teams shoould be structured to stay meaningful year after year.

 

Clearly teams should stay withing the luxury cap limit on most years. Penalties are enough to make that a reasonable goal and other teams like Oakland are viable far below the limit.

 

The approach I have heard talked about is developing a core of young players or players in their prime. Keep them under contract for a time which anticipates when the decline might start to become noticeable. The core might be limited to 4 or 5 players and those need to be paid well.

 

Try to develop enough young talent to keep a steady stream of players moving forward onto the team while keeping the payroll manageable. This step can be difficult for teams that have been doing well since they don't get high draft choices. Selection and the development process are both very important factors.

 

Be businesslike when considering contracts to with older players who are past their prime. An example would be the contract given to Pedroia. It was a nice thing to reweard Pedroia for his prior contributions, but didn't make business sense to give a long term contract which will probably not prove benficial to the team.

 

Go for short term contracts at fair market value for experienced players who can fill the team and offer a veteran presence at reasonable cost.

 

Avoid long term contracts for any player over 30 as their decline is imminent, especially pitchers who tend to be fragile. Pay the good ones well but keep the contracts short. Thinking of Price currently and Kimbrel going forward.

 

Free agent evaluation needs to be a high priority and metrics and scouting both use to select those players who can help us. If we see the team has weaknesses an effort can be made to rectify it near the all star break provided there are financial resources available. Bad evaluation in the past have saddled us with Panda and Hanley who really returned much less than the resource extended to them. Those types of contracts can really limit flexibility going forward.

 

Be hard headed and get rid of players and contracts that are underperforming.

 

While we are riding high now, it is hard to keep it going and the team needs a strategy that will keep within the salary structure while continuing to be viable.

[moonslav59]

I don't know where to put this into a string so guess it will go here. Many of these ideas have been batted around regarding the cliff to be faced in the future and how teams shoould be structured to stay meaningful year after year.

 

Clearly teams should stay withing the luxury cap limit on most years. Penalties are enough to make that a reasonable goal and other teams like Oakland are viable far below the limit.

 

The approach I have heard talked about is developing a core of young players or players in their prime. Keep them under contract for a time which anticipates when the decline might start to become noticeable. The core might be limited to 4 or 5 players and those need to be paid well.

 

Try to develop enough young talent to keep a steady stream of players moving forward onto the team while keeping the payroll manageable. This step can be difficult for teams that have been doing well since they don't get high draft choices. Selection and the development process are both very important factors.

 

Be businesslike when considering contracts to with older players who are past their prime. An example would be the contract given to Pedroia. It was a nice thing to reweard Pedroia for his prior contributions, but didn't make business sense to give a long term contract which will probably not prove benficial to the team.

 

Go for short term contracts at fair market value for experienced players who can fill the team and offer a veteran presence at reasonable cost.

 

Avoid long term contracts for any player over 30 as their decline is imminent, especially pitchers who tend to be fragile. Pay the good ones well but keep the contracts short. Thinking of Price currently and Kimbrel going forward.

 

Free agent evaluation needs to be a high priority and metrics and scouting both use to select those players who can help us. If we see the team has weaknesses an effort can be made to rectify it near the all star break provided there are financial resources available. Bad evaluation in the past have saddled us with Panda and Hanley who really returned much less than the resource extended to them. Those types of contracts can really limit flexibility going forward.

 

Be hard headed and get rid of players and contracts that are underperforming.

 

While we are riding high now, it is hard to keep it going and the team needs a strategy that will keep within the salary structure while continuing to be viable.

 

Nice job, oldtimer. Nice job.

[iortiz]

Some GMs should take notes of oldtimer.

[notin]

If Tito was managing the Sox right now, he'd have been roasted alive for our Pythagorean record differential.

 

For being 6 games ahead of the Pythagorean W-L?

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I think the starters will be expected and leveraged quite a bit here ... either Eovaldi or Rodriguez will be among the earlier guys out of the 'pen.

 

Yeah we spoke of that. I see E Rod possibly being the 4th starters and Eovaldi is so inconsistent you just never know which guy will show up. Not exactly a guy I trust with 2 on and none out with Altuve coming up in the 7th. I was big on Wright in this role but his showing against the Mets has cooled me on that. So even if they move Rodgriguez to the pen that's not nearly enough.

[jacksonianmarch]

Eovaldi has thrown 3 times vs the Yanks this year and has given up a .502 OPS. ERod has traditionally done well vs us, but the last two seasons, he hasn’t as our team has gotten very RHH heavy.

[Bellhorn04]

If Tito was managing the Sox right now, he'd have been roasted alive for our Pythagorean record differential.

 

No, beating the Pythagorean is supposed to reflect well on the manager, right?

[Slasher9]

No, beating the Pythagorean is supposed to reflect well on the manager, right?

 

i thought it was just all "luck" tho? managers dont really do anything?

[moonslav59]

No, beating the Pythagorean is supposed to reflect well on the manager, right?

 

Yes, which the Sox have done by 6 games, but Cleveland is 6 under theirs.

[moonslav59]

For being 6 games ahead of the Pythagorean W-L?

 

The Guardians are apparently supposed to be 94-63 but are 88-69.

[notin]

The Guardians are apparently supposed to be 94-63 but are 88-69.

 

I can't believe they didn't coast to 100 in that crappy division. I think part of it for them is they clinched first and have been coasting and playing to not get hurt longer than any other team...

[moonslav59]

I can't believe they didn't coast to 100 in that crappy division. I think part of it for them is they clinched first and have been coasting and playing to not get hurt longer than any other team...

 

True, but my points still stands. The Pythagorean differential between Cora and Tito is a whopping 12 games!

 

(Yet, if you go to the game threads, I bet more than half the posters would gladly take Tito back and replace the bumbling Cora).

[oldtimer]

I can't believe they didn't coast to 100 in that crappy division. I think part of it for them is they clinched first and have been coasting and playing to not get hurt longer than any other team...

 

They seemed to play their A team against us, other than the starters.

[oldtimer]

Yes, which the Sox have done by 6 games, but Cleveland is 6 under theirs.

 

A problem with using the Pythagorean apprach is that it assumes the team has been relatively static in its personnel while earning their record. Certainly the Yankees and Cleveland have made significant changes that may well improve their teams in the PO. We won't be playing the teams that compiled these records. We too have made changes during the year, but I don't think they are as significant.

[moonslav59]

A problem with using the Pythagorean apprach is that it assumes the team has been relatively static in its personnel while earning their record. Certainly the Yankees and Cleveland have made significant changes that may well improve their teams in the PO. We won't be playing the teams that compiled these records. We too have made changes during the year, but I don't think they are as significant.

 

The Astros did have plenty of of key players out hurt, but I'm not sure all of them have returned to last year's form.

 

The addition of Kinsler made a big difference to our IF defense, and Nunez seems to be doing better on D at 3B.

 

Eovaldi was a big pick-up and adding Brasier to the ML roster has been huge.

 

Pearce has slowed a little, but he was a great get, especially in light of Moreland's slump.

 

Getting Sale and Wright back should also help us look better than we did a month or so ago.

[oldtimer]

Poor Baltimore. They have so far to go to be meaningful, but didn't they just beat the Yankees twice?

[notin]

Poor Baltimore. They have so far to go to be meaningful, but didn't they just beat the Yankees twice?

 

Every once in a while, the Baltimore Orioles try to remind people they are still an actual Major League Baseball team.

 

And then it passes...

[kenmeister]

Every once in a while, the Baltimore Orioles try to remind people they are still an actual Major League Baseball team.

 

And then it passes...

 

I don't ever remember seeing one team beat up another so badly as the Sox have the Orioles this year.