A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[jacksonianmarch]

True, but I was wrong about saying Dalbec and Chavis are playing against mostly younger players-- younger "prospects" maybe, but most players are older.

 

It’s all dependent on their skill set and their age at which they were drafted. Some guys are projects, others aren’t. Heck, Judge was drafted in 2013 out of college and didn’t make it to the show until he got a cup of coffee in 16. He was 24 between AA and AAA that year and he broke out to nearly win MVP as a 25 yr old in 17.

[sk7326]

It’s all dependent on their skill set and their age at which they were drafted. Some guys are projects, others aren’t. Heck, Judge was drafted in 2013 out of college and didn’t make it to the show until he got a cup of coffee in 16. He was 24 between AA and AAA that year and he broke out to nearly win MVP as a 25 yr old in 17.

 

Right their ages and such - at least as a metric - don't say much about their outlooks. They are on a fairly normal path.

 

Now for Dalbec, there is clearly more of a project vibe. You usually don't expect a college kid to be at Gulf Coast and Greenville - that is a bit slow. That said, he ripped through Salem and has held his own in Portland aside from striking out a ton.

[Kimmi]

The numbers so far suggest it's possible.

 

But it's a little early to say, isn't it?

 

The guy is an unusual case. He's a 30 year old rookie with 38.1 major league innings under his belt.

 

He has mostly gotten the job done this season, but some of his peripherals give reason to be wary.

[Nick]

I think we need to take chance in couple of areas. Shore up the team at trade deadline. Let all FA go this year if we win it all.

[moonslav59]

I think we need to take chance in couple of areas. Shore up the team at trade deadline. Let all FA go this year if we win it all.

 

If we win, I'd be fine with that idea.

 

I'd look to deal away some players with just one year left...Moreland, Nunez, Thornburg and maybe even Holt.

 

Decide which big names to keep and think about trading one for some young top talent. Trade Porcello. I'm thinking maybe Bogey, but I'm not sure Chatham is a realistic replacement. Since we have no OF depth, I'd keep JBJ, but I could see trading him not Bogey.

 

If we can't or don't want to pay large for Sale, we could trade him, but if we let Porcello go and trade Bogey or JBJ, we can afford Sale..

 

We cans till have a very good team with a core of Betts, JD, Sale, Beni, Bogey or JBJ, Devers & ERod.

 

We could reset and start adding to the core right away and be back in top competition in a pretty short time... (or not).

[oldtimer]

I think we need to take chance in couple of areas. Shore up the team at trade deadline. Let all FA go this year if we win it all.

 

My loook ahead for 2019 does lose a number of our current players. Just can't keep everyone. We may get some pressure from the minors but not much. I see Pearce, Pomeranz and Eovaldi going. We are unlikely to hold onto Kimbrel for a reasonable contract so it may be to the FA market for a replacement. I hope we can keep Sale for a reasonable contract but if not, we will need a quality starter as a replacement.

 

My view of the spring likely to start the 2019 season include a haziness at Catcher and with numerous possibilities in deep relief. Here it is and is just an adjustment to the 2018 roster, which means it is pretty strong.

 

 

Boston Red Sox 2019 Possible Roster?

Position players:

 

1. 1st Base: Moreland (Righties)

2. 1st Base; Swihart (Lefties)

3. 2nd Base; Pedey (with Utility backups)

4. SS; Bogaerts

5. 3rd Base; Devers (Righties)

6. 3rd Base; Nunez; Lefties) plus utility for 2nd

7. LF; Beni

8. CF; JBJ

9. RF; Betts

10. DH; JDM

11/12. C; Leon, Vaz or

11/12. C; Vaz, FA or

11/12. C: Leon, FA

13. Utility; Holt

Pitchers:

Starters:

15. Sale or FA (Can we resign him reasonably)

16. Price

17. Porcello

18. E-Rod

19. Wright

Other Relievers:

20. Closer; FA or Kjmbrel (Can we resign him reasonably?)

21. 8th Bridge; Brasier

22. 7th Bridge; Barnes

23. Left Specialist; Poyner

24. Other Relief; Workman

25 Other Relief; Hembree or

25. Other Reliever; Smith or

25. Other Reliever; Maddox or

25. Other Reliever; Thornburg

 

Think relief pitching will be determined during spring training.

[Nick]

My loook ahead for 2019 does lose a number of our current players. Just can't keep everyone. We may get some pressure from the minors but not much. I see Pearce, Pomeranz and Eovaldi going. We are unlikely to hold onto Kimbrel for a reasonable contract so it may be to the FA market for a replacement. I hope we can keep Sale for a reasonable contract but if not, we will need a quality starter as a replacement.

 

My view of the spring likely to start the 2019 season include a haziness at Catcher and with numerous possibilities in deep relief. Here it is and is just an adjustment to the 2018 roster, which means it is pretty strong.

 

 

Boston Red Sox 2019 Possible Roster?

Position players:

 

1. 1st Base: Moreland (Righties)

2. 1st Base; Swihart (Lefties)

3. 2nd Base; Pedey (with Utility backups)

4. SS; Bogaerts

5. 3rd Base; Devers (Righties)

6. 3rd Base; Nunez; Lefties) plus utility for 2nd

7. LF; Beni

8. CF; JBJ

9. RF; Betts

10. DH; JDM

11/12. C; Leon, Vaz or

11/12. C; Vaz, FA or

11/12. C: Leon, FA

13. Utility; Holt

Pitchers:

Starters:

15. Sale or FA (Can we resign him reasonably)

16. Price

17. Porcello

18. E-Rod

19. Wright

Other Relievers:

20. Closer; FA or Kjmbrel (Can we resign him reasonably?)

21. 8th Bridge; Brasier

22. 7th Bridge; Barnes

23. Left Specialist; Poyner

24. Other Relief; Workman

25 Other Relief; Hembree or

25. Other Reliever; Smith or

25. Other Reliever; Maddox or

25. Other Reliever; Thornburg

 

Think relief pitching will be determined during spring training.

 

We have Sale for another year at $13.5 (club option)

[moonslav59]

My 2019, assuming we win a ring:

 

SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez (Porcello traded)

RP: Cody Allen, Brasier, Barnes, Workman, Hembree, Poyner/Thornburg/Smith

C: Leon, Vaz, Swihart

1B: Devers, Chavis/Ockimey (Moreland traded)

2B: Pedey, Holt (maybe Phillips)

3B: Nunez/Devers (maybe Dalbec/Chavis)

SS: Bogey, Hernandez/Lin

LF: Beni

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

DH JD

 

If we don't win, we keep Porcello, Moreland and maybe Kimbrel on the shortest deal he'll take.

 

 

[moonslav59]

It would be nice to help force the Yanks to pack their bags and head to Oakland for the play-in game...

 

Yanks currently up 1.5 on the A's (2 in loss column)

 

The NL basically has 4 teams battling for 3 slots (NL West & Wild Card)

 

NL West: LAD up 1/2 game on COL

 

Wild Card: MIL up 3 on STL and 3.5 on COL (COL 1/2 behind STL)

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

My 2019, assuming we win a ring:

 

SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez (Porcello traded)

RP: Cody Allen, Brasier, Barnes, Workman, Hembree, Poyner/Thornburg/Smith

C: Leon, Vaz, Swihart

1B: Devers, Chavis/Ockimey (Moreland traded)

2B: Pedey, Holt (maybe Phillips)

3B: Nunez/Devers (maybe Dalbec/Chavis)

SS: Bogey, Hernandez/Lin

LF: Beni

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

DH JD

 

If we don't win, we keep Porcello, Moreland and maybe Kimbrel on the shortest deal he'll take.

 

 

 

I didn't realize we get to keep Sale for another year. Thanks for the clarification.

 

Porcello has been such an inning eater for us that he still has a lot of value. One could argue the salary limits us but to get another starter of equivalent value to us would run to big bucks also.

 

You and I apparenttly agree that we can't afford a Kinsler while Pedey is on the roster. You also are thinking of a utility player as backup. It is a high risk position, but one the FO put us into by resigning Pedey to an extended contract. You remain high on Holt as do I and he has come back strongly from the concussion syndrome that bothered him.

 

 

I believe they will place Devers at third along with Nunez for one more year until Moreland's contract runs out. If that is the case, Moreland could use a right handed backup. It might be Swihart or if in spring training either Chavis, Dalbec or Ockimey show a lot, they have a chance to fill that slot. Swihart, however, gives us flexibility in the outfield and catcher, so his utility and experience might rule in his favor.

 

I believe Kimbrel will get an offer we won't be able to match or want to match. You leave out a little hope for Kimbrel but he would have to grant us a discount. Don't think it will happen, so its out on the market.

 

Finally, I would think this is the year to act on our catching. You put Leon and Vaz up but that leaves us with an extemely weak offensive position. Hard to supplement with pinch hitters for them all of the time. I predict some action in that area for 2019.

[moonslav59]

I didn't realize we get to keep Sale for another year. Thanks for the clarification.

 

Porcello has been such an inning eater for us that he still has a lot of value. One could argue the salary limits us but to get another starter of equivalent value to us would run to big bucks also.

 

You and I apparenttly agree that we can't afford a Kinsler while Pedey is on the roster. You also are thinking of a utility player as backup. It is a high risk position, but one the FO put us into by resigning Pedey to an extended contract. You remain high on Holt as do I and he has come back strongly from the concussion syndrome that bothered him.

 

 

I believe they will place Devers at third along with Nunez for one more year until Moreland's contract runs out. If that is the case, Moreland could use a right handed backup. It might be Swihart or if in spring training either Chavis, Dalbec or Ockimey show a lot, they have a chance to fill that slot. Swihart, however, gives us flexibility in the outfield and catcher, so his utility and experience might rule in his favor.

 

I believe Kimbrel will get an offer we won't be able to match or want to match. You leave out a little hope for Kimbrel but he would have to grant us a discount. Don't think it will happen, so its out on the market.

 

Finally, I would think this is the year to act on our catching. You put Leon and Vaz up but that leaves us with an extemely weak offensive position. Hard to supplement with pinch hitters for them all of the time. I predict some action in that area for 2019.

 

I should have added, I don't think this is what the Sox do. It's just what I'd do.

 

If we want to seriously contend next year, and Henry is fine with spending like a drunken sailor, then yes, I keep Porcello, Kimbrel & Kinsler plus maybe Pearce and look for pen help somehow.

 

A lot may depend on how we finish 2018.

 

I want Leon as my catcher next year with Sale & Price.

[sk7326]

i should have added, i don't think this is what the sox do. It's just what i'd do.

 

If we want to seriously contend next year, and henry is fine with spending like a rich guy with a very high revenue baseball team, then yes, i keep porcello, kimbrel & kinsler plus maybe pearce and look for pen help somehow.

 

A lot may depend on how we finish 2018.

 

I want leon as my catcher next year with sale & price.

 

ftfy

[mvp 78]

ftfy

 

Good stuff right there...

[moonslav59]

Drunken sailors don't spend a lot?

[Bellhorn04]

Drunken sailors don't spend a lot?

 

I believe the implication is that drunken sailors spend more than they can afford to spend, whereas Henry can afford it.

[moonslav59]

I believe the implication is that drunken sailors spend more than they can afford to spend, whereas Henry can afford it.

 

So can the sailor. He doesn't have to pay room and board.

[Bellhorn04]

So can the sailor. He doesn't have to pay room and board.

 

So spending like a drunken sailor isn't a problem then.

[sk7326]

So can the sailor. He doesn't have to pay room and board.

 

I am sorry Henry will have to wait a couple of weeks for another boat.

[moonslav59]

So spending like a drunken sailor isn't a problem then.

 

Not to me. I love it when he spends, except on HRam & Pablito.

 

I'm not sure he'll always want to spend like this year.

[iortiz]

The spending thing is relative. If he spends this way, I can imagine his revenue stream.

[dgalehouse]

The spending thing is relative. If he spends this way, I can imagine his revenue stream.

 

One thing for sure ; the revenue stream increases when the team wins. I don't know what the bottom line shows , but I am pretty sure he is making a profit.

[iortiz]

One thing for sure ; the revenue stream increases when the team wins. I don't know what the bottom line shows , but I am pretty sure he is making a profit.

 

Well considering the price of the tickets and crappy food in Fenway, I bet he is making a good profit.

[Kimmi]

I believe the implication is that drunken sailors spend more than they can afford to spend, whereas Henry can afford it.

 

The implication is not that they spend more than they can afford to spend, it's that drunken sailors don't spend wisely.

[Kimmi]

Farm system, farm system, farm system.

 

'Nuff said.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps the biggest profit these owners make is when they sell the team at an exponential number from their cost at purchase

[Bellhorn04]

The implication is not that they spend more than they can afford to spend, it's that drunken sailors don't spend wisely.

 

I think there's a lot of overlap with those two things. If you're spending more than you can afford, that's usually unwise (unless it's something you're forced to do).

[Bellhorn04]

Perhaps the biggest profit these owners make is when they sell the team at an exponential number from their cost at purchase

 

Absolutely. And it gets more favorable tax treatment, right? (In Canada you're taxed on only 50% of capital gains.)

[moonslav59]

Absolutely. And it gets more favorable tax treatment, right? (In Canada you're taxed on only 50% of capital gains.)

 

You look at all those cheap teams, apparently losing money each year. The owner may have bought the team for a few measly millions and can seel it for 50 times what he paid for it, despite playing cheap the whole time while collecting revenue sharing.

[cp176]

Perhaps the biggest profit these owners make is when they sell the team at an exponential number from their cost at purchase

 

There is no question about this. It is something that has been known for a very long time. I think that JH by not selling this team by now is saying that he might not intend to. He might just enjoy being the owner of the team. They all want to run successful businesses but this isn't where he has made his money. He has money and it is fairly obvious I think how he wants to spend it. You either like his philosophy I guess or you don't. I like it because I like winning. The "drunken sailor" analogy I don't think applies but only because I have not really known any billionaire drunken sailors. The cliff myth will be proven to be a joke.

[OH FOY]

Tampa has the same record as Cleveland, started just a little too late to get hot.