A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[iortiz]

Before tonight, here are the ERA- leaders in the AL:

 

100+IP

 

45 Sale

49 Snell

51 Bauer

66 Verlander

66 G Cole (4 ER in 6 IP tonight)

67 Kluber

73 Fiers

74 Morton

76 Clevinger

76 Severino

78 ERod

79 Price

82 Carrasco

83 Gibson

 

26. Porcello 95

 

We're missing 2 of the top 11 ERA- pitchers in the AL and still have a big lead.

 

Wait till they come back!

 

E-Rod should be our No. 3. Porcello is a box of chocolates, you don’t know what you’re going to get..

[moonslav59]

E-Rod should be our No. 3. Porcello is a box of chocolates, you don’t know what you’re going to get..

 

Totally agree

 

In ERod starts we're 16-3

 

It's plain to see

 

to you and me

 

 

[oldtimer]

Before tonight, here are the ERA- leaders in the AL:

 

100+IP

 

45 Sale

49 Snell

51 Bauer

66 Verlander

66 G Cole (4 ER in 6 IP tonight)

67 Kluber

73 Fiers

74 Morton

76 Clevinger

76 Severino

78 ERod

79 Price

82 Carrasco

83 Gibson

 

26. Porcello 95

 

We're missing 2 of the top 11 ERA- pitchers in the AL and still have a big lead.

 

Wait till they come back!

 

 

I'm waiting for two of our big hitters to come back as well. Betts and Beni.

[moonslav59]

I'm waiting for two of our big hitters to come back as well. Betts and Beni.

 

Both are too damn good to have extended slumps.

[vegasbob]

Small Sample Alert : Over the past 6 contests the group of Betts, Beni, Pearce and Leon have BA's ranging from .200 to .091, with OPS's from .604 to .348. I agree that Mookie and Andy will get over it. Pearce and Leon are of more concern. We will need Pearce as a credible PH'er/sub for Moreland. Leon is likely just worn out. Vazquez's return should help distribute the load, with Swihart looking for opportunities to stay active.

[OH FOY]

Pretty sure Wright and Vazquez starting tonight in Pawtucket. Just got E-Mail from Club they are suppose to, if I want tickets. Edited August 28, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Small Sample Alert : Over the past 6 contests the group of Betts, Beni, Pearce and Leon have BA's ranging from .200 to .091, with OPS's from .604 to .348. I agree that Mookie and Andy will get over it. Pearce and Leon are of more concern. We will need Pearce as a credible PH'er/sub for Moreland. Leon is likely just worn out. Vazquez's return should help distribute the load, with Swihart looking for opportunities to stay active.

 

Yes, players will get more rest in September.

 

Pearce has always been very good vs LHPs, so there is no reason to think he won't continue doing that once he's over this lull.

 

It's easy to focus on our weak areas, especially when looking at recent small sample sizes, but look around the league. This happens and is happening to every team... more so to other teams.

 

[moonslav59]

Pretty sure Wright and Vazquez starting tonight in Pawtucket. Just got E-Mail from Club they are suppose to.

 

Just curious, who sent the email?

[OH FOY]

Pawtucket they send E-Mails for those who go to the games, and get tickets on line. Just a perk I guess.

[OH FOY]

Devers is suppose to Rehab Wed. and Thursday it says.

[Maxbialystock]

Totally agree

 

In ERod starts we're 16-3

 

It's plain to see

 

to you and me

 

 

 

I agree as well. Our three best starters this season are all lefties: Sale, Price, and ERod. Every time I look at the ALDS and ALCS schedules, I conclude we will actually need 4 starters. Right now I think Porcello, but need to see Wright pitch in September. This year he was pretty darn good when the knuckler was working.

[moonslav59]

Devers is suppose to Rehab Wed. and Thursday it says.

 

He's been out a while now. I thought it was just minor.

[moonslav59]

I agree as well. Our three best starters this season are all lefties: Sale, Price, and ERod. Every time I look at the ALDS and ALCS schedules, I conclude we will actually need 4 starters. Right now I think Porcello, but need to see Wright pitch in September. This year he was pretty darn good when the knuckler was working.

 

Porcello is still as good or better than most playoff teams' 4th starter.

[dgalehouse]

To the naysayers and worriers : A good pennant race is fun. The Red Sox vs Yankees rivalry is fun. The Yankees are no longer the big bully on the block. That ended fourteen years ago. There is nothing to fear. The Sox have the better team. Relax , stop fretting and enjoy the fun. Please.

[sk7326]

He's been out a while now. I thought it was just minor.

 

it is clear the Red Sox are slow-walking some of these injuries ... it's a spoil of having 90 wins before the end of August

[cp176]

To the naysayers and worriers : A good pennant race is fun. The Red Sox vs Yankees rivalry is fun. The Yankees are no longer the big bully on the block. That ended fourteen years ago. There is nothing to fear. The Sox have the better team. Relax , stop fretting and enjoy the fun. Please.

 

All very true but naysaying and worrying really are big parts of who many of us are. I am fairly sure that this team is and will be just fine but I do worry about losing momentum as we move forward. Understand that I get the fact that there is little to no significance placed on positive momentum by many here because it can't be measured. Works for me though - i don't believe that it is soley about talent particularly at the highest level.

[moonslav59]

All very true but naysaying and worrying really are big parts of who many of us are. I am fairly sure that this team is and will be just fine but I do worry about losing momentum as we move forward. Understand that I get the fact that there is little to no significance placed on positive momentum by many here because it can't be measured. Works for me though - i don't believe that it is soley about talent particularly at the highest level.

 

I believe in momentum, but I think it is too early, in a way, to get hot.

 

I'd like to see us win about 57-60% of our games until the final week or so, then go to 80% through October. I'm thinking it's too much to hope for 80% over our final 30 games plus the playoffs.

[notin]

The one thing I don't care about is getting 117 wins. In fact, I don't want the Sox to set that record. As a sports fan, the biggest disappointment for me was watching the Patriots go 18-0 and then lose the Super Bowl. I also saw the Mariners win 116 and even make the World Series, and I absolutely do not want to see the Sox in the same situation...

[cp176]

I believe in momentum, but I think it is too early, in a way, to get hot.

 

I'd like to see us win about 57-60% of our games until the final week or so, then go to 80% through October. I'm thinking it's too much to hope for 80% over our final 30 games plus the playoffs.

 

I'm thinking that I agree with you. Momentum is a curious thing. I believe in making sure that your players are rested too but too much time off can sometimes be just as harmful as too little time off. Oh - also once again I'll say that the playoff season has become much too long for me. I'm easily bored I guess lol

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking that I agree with you. Momentum is a curious thing. I believe in making sure that your players are rested too but too much time off can sometimes be just as harmful as too little time off. Oh - also once again I'll say that the playoff season has become much too long for me. I'm easily bored I guess lol

 

I think we have 5 days off between game 162 and the first playoff game.

 

I'm not sure we need to rest anyone down the stretch, except maybe Sale- just don't wear anybody down.

[vegasbob]

It may be time to consider that Sale's shoulder bursitis is on its way to becoming chronic, and not curable in the permanent sense, as with arthritis. The test will be to see if it is debilitating to the point he cannot pitch or can do so once a month. We have him through next year but if his labrum/bursa becomes chronic, it will be a great loss to the Sale family if he can't cash in on a 5 year $150 miilion deal, after 2019 season.

 

For our sake and the team's, I hope his condition is not chronic , but chances are that it is already. previous season Sept/Oct fades may not have just been tiring out, but cumulative wear and tear from his hard, whiplike motion. Just give us a big postseason this year , Chris.

[moonslav59]

It may be time to consider that Sale's shoulder bursitis is on its way to becoming chronic, and not curable in the permanent sense, as with arthritis. The test will be to see if it is debilitating to the point he cannot pitch or can do so once a month. We have him through next year but if his labrum/bursa becomes chronic, it will be a great loss to the Sale family if he can't cash in on a 5 year $150 miilion deal, after 2019 season.

 

For our sake and the team's, I hope his condition is not chronic , but chances are that it is already. previous season Sept/Oct fades may not have just been tiring out, but cumulative wear and tear from his hard, whiplike motion. Just give us a big postseason this year , Chris.

 

You could be right, but it could also be the team is just being extra cautious.

 

One good sign was how well he pitched in the one game after coming back after the first DL stint.

 

I hear you, though. It is a concern, for sure.

[a700hitter]

You could be right, but it could also be the team is just being extra cautious.

 

One good sign was how well he pitched in the one game after coming back after the first DL stint.

 

I hear you, though. It is a concern, for sure.

Is it just a coincidence that his shoulder flared up shortly after he tinkered with his mechanics and gained 4-5 mph on his fastball?

[moonslav59]

Is it just a coincidence that his shoulder flared up shortly after he tinkered with his mechanics and gained 4-5 mph on his fastball?

 

I don't see that in his velocity charts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

 

Am I missing something?

[a700hitter]

I don't see that in his velocity charts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

 

Am I missing something?

Maybe it wasn't 4-5 mph,but he started hitting 100 mph regularly. I don't recall seeing him hit 100 much if at all in the past.

 

Edit: I see an increase in those charts.

Edited August 28, 2018 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

Maybe it wasn't 4-5 mph,but he started hitting 100 mph regularly. I don't recall seeing him hit 100 much if at all in the past.

 

Edit: I see an increase in those charts.

 

I do, too, but I assumed you meant a sudden uptick right before going on the DL.

 

Hid 4 starts before his first DL stint this year does show his highest speed, or at least 4 of his highest 5 or 6), but it looks like just by 1-2 mph average.

 

It does look he hit the highest speeds ever in 3 of his 7 starts..maybe by 2-4 mph over previous year highs.

 

(I wasn't trying to doubt put down your point. It makes more sense now after going back and looking again.)

[Kimmi]

I believe in momentum, but I think it is too early, in a way, to get hot.

 

I'd like to see us win about 57-60% of our games until the final week or so, then go to 80% through October. I'm thinking it's too much to hope for 80% over our final 30 games plus the playoffs.

 

Momentum is another one of those myth type things.

 

Momentum does not hold any predictive ability for the postseason, for the next series, for the next game, or even for the next inning.

 

Momentum does exist in the descriptive sense, but not in the predictive sense.

[S5Dewey]

There are too many variables for anything to be 100% predictable in baseball but if the Sox were on a winning streak and playing a team on a losing streak I'd bet on the Sox. I'd lose my bet occasionally but IMO I'd win more than I'd lose.

[Kimmi]

There are too many variables for anything to be 100% predictable in baseball but if the Sox were on a winning streak and playing a team on a losing streak I'd bet on the Sox. I'd lose my bet occasionally but IMO I'd win more than I'd lose.

 

If you were talking about the Sox versus the Orioles, that would be a good bet. But that has to do with the difference in talent, not in momentum.

 

If you were talking about the Sox versus the Yankees, or any two teams who are somewhat fairly matched, you would lose that bet as often as you'd win it.

[S5Dewey]

If you were talking about the Sox versus the Orioles, that would be a good bet. But that has to do with the difference in talent, not in momentum.

 

If you were talking about the Sox versus the Yankees, or any two teams who are somewhat fairly matched, you would lose that bet as often as you'd win it.

 

We will differ on that.