A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[dannycater]

Bravo Mr. Leon...says a lot about what we've been saying how important he's been behind the plate.

From 108 Stitches

CATCHER IS WELL-RECEIVED: The numbers really do tell the story with Sandy Leon. His 3.01 catcher ERA leads all of baseball, and since 2016 is the best in the bigs as well.

[oldtimer]

I see your point. 6 feet in peak health and conditioning is probably 180.

 

Might help him and lengthen his bb career. He is naturally stocky so 205 or 210 would be maybe a norm he should shoot for.

[moonslav59]

Might help him and lengthen his bb career. He is naturally stocky so 205 or 210 would be maybe a norm he should shoot for.

 

Agreed.

 

I still think he ends up at 1B sooner than many think.

[OH FOY]

After seeing Devers in the Minors last year, and tooting his horn all season, and saying stay patient with the kid. I now think Devers don't get it. To me, he's turning into a lazy ballplayer, both Defensively and on Offense too. And it starts with the head. That throw the other day was atrocious, and showed me no improvement. His looping swing, didn't see that either in the Minors. His HR against Chapman, was the swing I saw, its gone. Somebody giving him bad advice? His Power to Left Field is unreal, hardly see that anymore. Looks lost at the plate all the time. This time of season going into Play-offs cannot afford learning curves now. This is the Majors, losses are now important. This isn't the Minors, where it doesn't matter. He better wake up. Brooks Robinson was one of the slowest guys you ever saw, but his feet at 3rd were unmatched, even when he was old, and didn't have the strongest arms. Everything with him was hands and feet, and brain.

 

This coming from the huge Devers supporter.

For the record I predicted before the season 30+ HRS, close to 100 RBI's and a .280+ avg. Not even close. Errors I expected at the beginning, but steady progress as season went on. Wrong on that too.

Edited August 18, 2018 by OH FOY!

[oldtimer]

After seeing Devers in the Minors last year, and tooting his horn all season, and saying stay patient with the kid. I now think Devers don't get it. To me, he's turning into a lazy ballplayer, both Defensively and on Offense too. And it starts with the head. That throw the other day was atrocious, and showed me no improvement. His looping swing, didn't see that either in the Minors. His HR against Chapman, was the swing I saw, its gone. Somebody giving him bad advice? His Power to Left Field is unreal, hardly see that anymore. Looks lost at the plate all the time. This time of season going into Play-offs cannot afford learning curves now. This is the Majors, losses are now important. This isn't the Minors, where it doesn't matter. He better wake up. Brooks Robinson was one of the slowest guys you ever saw, but his feet at 3rd were unmatched, even when he was old, and didn't have the strongest arms. Everything with him was hands and feet, and brain.

 

This coming from the huge Devers supporter.

 

I agree with a lot of what you say but we have to remember that the kid is only 21. He could well understand that he has to work hard on his deficiencies or wind up out of the 3rd base position. Probably would go to first, but only stay there if he gets his hitting straightened out. One thing I noticed that bothered me just after making a his last game changing error, he had a mouthful of sunflower seeds he was chewing on and spitting out while playing. I would think that would be just another distraction. My view is Raphael needs some tough love, first to get him to get into better shape (something best for him and that he should do if he doesn't want to become another Panda) and 2 is to work on pitch recognition and swing mechanics. That is much harder for him to do and to some extent is innate. I hope he makes it but I do agree with Moon that he is likely to wind up at 1st base.

[OH FOY]

Devers needs to go to Dance class, get his feet going. Get lighter on them. In other words work to get better. Nothing is easy, in trying to be good. Edited August 18, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Kimmi]

The kid is 6 feet tall and weighs 237 pounds according to the red sox data. He is a candidate for hamstring injuries. He needs to consider conditioning as a priority if he is to attain his best form and stay off of the DL. Clearly people will quesion if this is truly an injury or an excuse to get him down to work on his defense and hitting. Both need help, along with his conditioning.

 

Cora commented last night that they are happy with Devers' weight and that the weight is not the reason for the hamstring injuries. I don't think I'm buying that one.

[Kimmi]

After seeing Devers in the Minors last year, and tooting his horn all season, and saying stay patient with the kid. I now think Devers don't get it. To me, he's turning into a lazy ballplayer, both Defensively and on Offense too. And it starts with the head. That throw the other day was atrocious, and showed me no improvement. His looping swing, didn't see that either in the Minors. His HR against Chapman, was the swing I saw, its gone. Somebody giving him bad advice? His Power to Left Field is unreal, hardly see that anymore. Looks lost at the plate all the time. This time of season going into Play-offs cannot afford learning curves now. This is the Majors, losses are now important. This isn't the Minors, where it doesn't matter. He better wake up. Brooks Robinson was one of the slowest guys you ever saw, but his feet at 3rd were unmatched, even when he was old, and didn't have the strongest arms. Everything with him was hands and feet, and brain.

 

This coming from the huge Devers supporter.

For the record I predicted before the season 30+ HRS, close to 100 RBI's and a .280+ avg. Not even close. Errors I expected at the beginning, but steady progress as season went on. Wrong on that too.

 

By all accounts, Devers is a very hard worker. Mike Lowell had some very nice praise for Devers when working with him during spring training.

 

The defense hasn't come along as quickly as we'd like, and the hitting seems to have taken a step in the wrong direction, but I really do think we need to have patience with him. He's so young. He has shown that he can hit at every level. The pitchers have adjusted to him and now he needs to adjust back.

 

As far as defense goes, Adrian Beltre made 29 errors in his first full season with the Dodgers. Once again, Devers is very young. Patience.

[dannycater]

The fact is that Nunez or Holt can play third with Kinsler at 2b. Devers can play, not play in the postseason. I'm not going to worry about him because he is young, which sometimes can be a benefit in a postseason game (except for Schiraldi), but he's got so many issues it seems from swinging at balls high in strike zone with 2 strikes to making throws. Sox have lots of options so it's not like you have to play him.

[dannycater]

Devers should be given an ultimatum by Cora--here's your audition once you come back from 10 day DL. You start playing like the Devers we saw last year, really pick up your play, or you sit in the postseason except for pinch hitting or situational things.

[moonslav59]

Pablo was a plus defender before he came to Boston.

 

Devers seems to have plus range. That's not his problem, unless he gains more weight or continues having hammy issues.

 

I'd like to see him lose 10-15 1bs.

 

He's struggling. All players struggle, and it should be expected that a 21 year old who rocketed through the minors will struggle more than the average player. I am far, far away from giving up on Devers, but it has always worried me that a team on a championship run would force a kid to learn-on-the-go right smack in the middle of the hottest media spotlight in MLB. I think Devers is tough enough to overcome being blamed for making a playoff series blowing error, and I hope to God that never happens, but it concerns me a whole lot that it might happen, and he might now recover.

 

What choice do we have now? I'd have less faith in Nunez at 3B. He's equally bad on defense and is having an equally mediocre offensive season. Holt? Maybe, but I wouldn't view him as an overall upgrade.

 

I think we are stuck with Devers, and although Moreland has had a very nice season, maybe some posters who poo-poo'd my sign Mosse rants can at least see the reasoning behind my suggestion (not that Moose is lighting up the league).

[dannycater]

Sox lineup allows for guys based on defense because Betts, Beni, JD, Bogie, and the 2-headed monster of Moreland-Pearce exist. Bradley, Leon, Kinsler--all terrific defenders, if they hit it's gravy...that leaves 3rd base--Devers?? and frankly again you got Holt and Nunez and both are clutch players--guys who have had big hit after big hit in big situations and little ones too. In 13 they had depth guys-and these 2 fit the bill. Sox don't have to worry about offense...period....and don't have to sacrifice defense either.

[dannycater]

I give both Holt and Devers more credit than a lot of you guys do. Defensively they are not great, but they are good enough. Holt made a play at 2nd that was phenomenal the other day, falling back and somehow getting rid of the ball for the force play. Nunez is better at 3rd than 2nd.

[moonslav59]

I give both Holt and Devers more credit than a lot of you guys do. Defensively they are not great, but they are good enough. Holt made a play at 2nd that was phenomenal the other day, falling back and somehow getting rid of the ball for the force play. Nunez is better at 3rd than 2nd.

 

Better than horrific can still be pretty bad.

 

The issue with Devers is just his arm. I'm not down-playing the problem, but is range is fine right now.

[OH FOY]

Range and setting your feet, for accurate strong throws, is his problem. Side to side is one thing, then setting yourself up to throw is another. Also coming in on ball, to make smart decision, to throw another. Looks out of control on this. Most 3rd baseman don't have much range, usually ball is hit too hard for this. Positioning, and reflexes important. Good hands, very important, along with your footwork. Shortstop needs the range. You let a Single in the hole it happens, you let balls down the line, that's what you don't want. Edited August 18, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

I think we are stuck with Devers, and although Moreland has had a very nice season, maybe some posters who poo-poo'd my sign Mosse rants can at least see the reasoning behind my suggestion (not that Moose is lighting up the league).

 

I'm afraid any credit you might have gotten for your Moose rants has been undermined by your LoMo and Duda rants.

[notin]

I'm afraid any credit you might have gotten for your Moose rants has been undermined by your LoMo and Duda rants.

 

I wasn’t wild about Moreland as the option, either. But then none of Duda, LoMo, or Moustakas really excited me much either. Although to be honest, I think they all excited me more than Moreland...

[Nick]

Question for Kimmi

 

We can shed $47M from our payroll by letting go Hanley (done), Kimbrel, Pom and Kelly. Throw in additional $9M in cap increase. We have Sale, Price, Porcello and E Rod. #5 options are Wright, Johnson and Valazquez.

 

Do we have enough talent to get to the 2019 trade deadline as a contender and then look for additional reinforcement?

[moonslav59]

I wasn’t wild about Moreland as the option, either. But then none of Duda, LoMo, or Moustakas really excited me much either. Although to be honest, I think they all excited me more than Moreland...

 

I was certainly higher on Moose than LoMo or Duda, because I was worried about Devers and his learning curve under a hot spotlight at 3B. Duda and LoMo cannot play 3B.

 

None have really done well this year, but Moose has been better than the other two.

 

I'm sure glad we didn't get hosed with Hosmer.

[moonslav59]

Question for Kimmi

 

We can shed $47M from our payroll by letting go Hanley (done), Kimbrel, Pom and Kelly. Throw in additional $9M in cap increase. We have Sale, Price, Porcello and E Rod. #5 options are Wright, Johnson and Valazquez.

 

Do we have enough talent to get to the 2019 trade deadline as a contender and then look for additional reinforcement?

 

I'll give my two cents, if you don't mind.

 

$47M +$9M= $56M

 

We're about $41M over the luxury tax limit now.

 

That leaves $15M, if we want to reset (not likely, unless maybe if we win a ring this fall).

 

We could spend $55M and straddle the maxline again in 2019, if we make a strong drive for a (another) ring.

 

Other spending adjustments this winter:

 

+$1M Sale option(plus another $1M, if he wins the Cy Young)

+ ~26M in arbs raises:

Betts $10.5M > ~$18.5M (2 of 3 arbs)

Bogey $7M> ~$13M (3 of 3)

J B J $$6M> ~$9M (3 of 4)

ERod $2.4M>~$6.4M (2 of 4)

Holt $2.2M> ~$3.2M (3 of 3)

Thornburg $2M> ~$2.5M (3 of 3)

S Leon $2M> ~$2.5M (3 of 4)

Barnes $606K> ~$1.6M (1 of 3)

Wright $1.1M> ~$1.6M (2 of 3)

Hembree $582K>~$1M (1 of 3)

Swihart $564K> ~$1M (1 of 3)

Smith $850K> ~$1M (2 of 3)

 

That's about $27M total, before we even try to fill any slots left vacant by departing free agents. We'd be $12M over the luxury tax (year 2 consecutive) and $27M from the max line.

 

In house possibilities?

 

Kimbrel- Thornburg, Smith, Kelly, Barnes (Houck/Feltman)

(Then we'd need to fill another set-up role, if one moves to closer)

Kelly- Everyone else moves up one notch (Barnes, Thornburg, Smith, Hembree, Brasier, Workman...

Pom- Wright, Johnson or Velazquez

Eovaldi- (same as above)

Pearce- Travis/Ockimey/Dalbec/Chavis (Devers to 1B?)

Kinsler- Pedey/Nunez/Holt/MHernandez (Lin/Quiroz)

 

[Nick]

I was certainly higher on Moose than LoMo or Duda, because I was worried about Devers and his learning curve under a hot spotlight at 3B. Duda and LoMo cannot play 3B.

 

None have really done well this year, but Moose has been better than the other two.

 

I'm sure glad we didn't get hosed with Hosmer.

 

Is it possible that Devers' power numbers will explode as Ramirez' has? Devers looks to be more of traditional power hitter than Ramirez. I think we just live with him. Give him occasional time off when he's slumping. Devers has four more years to get to age 25.

[moonslav59]

Is it possible that Devers' power numbers will explode as Ramirez' has? Devers looks to be more of traditional power hitter than Ramirez. I think we just live with him. Give him occasional time off when he's slumping. Devers has four more years to get to age 25.

 

I'm far from giving up on Devers, especially his bat.

 

I just see him as moving to 1B sooner than most.

 

I guess DD saw Nunez as the insurance at 3B (and 2B). the problem is, Nunez is not really better on defense at 3B than Devers is.

 

Better arm- worse range and reflexes.

[a700hitter]

Pablo was a plus defender before he came to Boston.

 

...

I think you meant to say that Pablo was a Plus Size Defender.

[moonslav59]

I think you meant to say that Pablo was a Plus Size Defender.

 

That too.

 

UZR/150 2008-2014

 

+2.3

 

(+6.0 in 2014)

[Kimmi]

Question for Kimmi

 

We can shed $47M from our payroll by letting go Hanley (done), Kimbrel, Pom and Kelly. Throw in additional $9M in cap increase. We have Sale, Price, Porcello and E Rod. #5 options are Wright, Johnson and Valazquez.

 

Do we have enough talent to get to the 2019 trade deadline as a contender and then look for additional reinforcement?

 

Yes. IMO, we are good for 2019, as our team is remaining mostly intact.

 

We'll lose Pom, but how much did he really help us this year? With good health, our rotation is good to go. I would look for some of those dumpster dive depth pieces that everyone here loves so much.

 

I don't think finding quality bullpen arms should be a problem.

 

I guess our biggest need or question mark will be what to do about 2B. I think Pedroia will be back, but I also thought he would be back this year. Either way, the Sox need to have a viable back up plan in place. Perhaps we can make do with Holt, Nunez, Hernandez? again until the trade deadline like we did this year.

 

Short answer: Yes, the Sox will be a strong contender next year.

[Kimmi]

That too.

 

UZR/150 2008-2014

 

+2.3

 

(+6.0 in 2014)

 

Pablo was a very good player until he signed with the Red Sox. Was he worth signing for that 5 year contract? No.

 

But should he have been a solid 3B for us for at least 3 years? Yes.

 

His drop off was one of epic proportions.

[moonslav59]

Yes. IMO, we are good for 2019, as our team is remaining mostly intact.

 

We'll lose Pom, but how much did he really help us this year? With good health, our rotation is good to go. I would look for some of those dumpster dive depth pieces that everyone here loves so much.

 

I don't think finding quality bullpen arms should be a problem.

 

I guess our biggest need or question mark will be what to do about 2B. I think Pedroia will be back, but I also thought he would be back this year. Either way, the Sox need to have a viable back up plan in place. Perhaps we can make do with Holt, Nunez, Hernandez? again until the trade deadline like we did this year.

 

Short answer: Yes, the Sox will be a strong contender next year.

 

Losing Kimbrel & Kelly makes getting a top RP'er a higher priority than 2B, where we will have Nunez, Holt, Hernandez, Lin and maybe Quiroz in the mix.

 

While this pen might not be bad, it probably won't be top 10 or 15:

 

Thornburg

Smith

Barnes

Braiser

Hembree

Workman

2 from Wright/Johnson/Velazquez (assuming the rotation is 100% healthy)

Scott/Poyner/Walden/Maddox

Haley/Shawaryn/Cuevas/Shepherd/D Hernandez

Houck/Feltman/Lakins

 

[oldtimer]

Yes. IMO, we are good for 2019, as our team is remaining mostly intact.

 

We'll lose Pom, but how much did he really help us this year? With good health, our rotation is good to go. I would look for some of those dumpster dive depth pieces that everyone here loves so much.

 

I don't think finding quality bullpen arms should be a problem.

 

I guess our biggest need or question mark will be what to do about 2B. I think Pedroia will be back, but I also thought he would be back this year. Either way, the Sox need to have a viable back up plan in place. Perhaps we can make do with Holt, Nunez, Hernandez? again until the trade deadline like we did this year.

 

Short answer: Yes, the Sox will be a strong contender next year.

 

Like you, I think we will have a question mark at 2nd base with Pedroia on the payroll but far from certain to be on the roster. I see us looking for a younger player who can be our 2nd baseman of the future. There may also be a need at 3rd base. The problem of moving Devers to first next year is that we also have Moreland signed and we don't need two left handed first baseman on the same team. Presumably, after minor knee surgery Moreland will be good to go for another season. We probably will keep Devers at 3rd for another season and hope that he shows significant impprovement in his fielding, his hitting and also his physical conditioning. After that he may find himself at 1st.

 

I think Pom is gone next season. Panda's salary is off the books after that and one major burden is off the books.

[moonslav59]

Replacing what Pom has given us this year will be easy. It's addition by subtraction.

 

Replacing Kimbrel, Kelly, Eovaldi & Pearce will be harder.

 

Yes, 2B is a concern, but I would not be surprised, if we wait to do anything at 2B until we see how Pedey and Nunez are doing healthwise. Maybe make a deadline deal.

[Bellhorn04]

Replacing Kimbrel, Kelly, Eovaldi & Pearce will be harder.

 

Kelly has tumbled to the point that replacing him shouldn't be a big deal either.