A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[kenmeister]

Dombrowski said that once Devers returns, they will go with a 12 man pitching staff.

 

The question is, who gets the boot out of the bullpen?

 

Joe Kelly?

[vegasbob]

Velocity is useless with zero command, think Joe Kelly.

 

Pomeranz has terrible command of everything.

 

Drew's post game quote reveals a lot of this guy's mentality as a competitor. Essentially he said that he'd rather walk 4 batters and hit 2 guys, than give up a wall ball double. What he means is that his "stuff" isn't good enough to get guys out by challenging them. That may be the only thing he gets right.

[dgalehouse]

Workman was brought back up when Sale went on the DL

 

When Sale returns , Workman goes back down. Someone else still has to go when Devers returns. If not Velazquez , then who ? Brasier ?

[Spudboy]

We tend to agree on quite a lot.

 

Anything that's not advanced stat related.

 

We actually agree on most of the advanced stat stuff too.

 

I am just not a big fan of WAR and UZR/UZR150.

 

Or as Alex Cora says "UZL or whatever".

[Spudboy]

Workman was brought back up when Sale went on the DL

 

Yup. Hence the yo-yo.

 

I like what Workman can bring. I have since 2013.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Sucks we open the Yankees series with Johnson and not Chris Sale. But it's a smart move and it will help keep his innings down so I understand the precaution.

[Kimmi]

Workman was brought back up when Sale went on the DL

 

Ah. Then he is likely the one who gets sent back down.

[Kimmi]

Joe Kelly?

 

That's a possibility since he has options, but I don't think he'll get sent down.

 

I think the Sox want him to get back to his earlier form.

[mvp 78]

Ah. Then he is likely the one who gets sent back down.

 

Most likely unless someone else gets injured or really falters.

[moonslav59]

When Sale returns , Workman goes back down. Someone else still has to go when Devers returns. If not Velazquez , then who ? Brasier ?

 

Maybe Holt, since Nunez & Swihart have no options remaining.

 

How about a phantom DL for Nunez or trade him and get back under the tax line?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

When Sale returns , Workman goes back down. Someone else still has to go when Devers returns. If not Velazquez , then who ? Brasier ?

 

Either Velazquez or Brasier. Alternatively, if Pomeranz continues to suck, he probably goes back on the DL.

[dgalehouse]

Maybe Holt, since Nunez & Swihart have no options remaining.

 

How about a phantom DL for Nunez or trade him and get back under the tax line?

 

Dombrowski had said they would go with a four man bench and twelve pitchers.

[moonslav59]

What's our 100% healthy 25 man roster (no Pedey)?

 

lock:

Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod

Kimbel, Barnes

 

Near lock:

Eovaldi, Johnson

Velazquez, Hembree (no options)

 

Bubble:

Pomeranz, Kelly, Brasier, Workman::

 

Lock:

Vazquez

Bubble:

Leon, Swihart

 

Lock:

Moreland, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, JD

Near Lock:

Pearce, Kinsler, Nunez, Holt

 

Edited August 2, 2018 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

What's our 100% healthy 25 man roster (no Pedey)?

 

lock:

Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod

Kimbel, Barnes

 

Near lock:

Eovaldi, Johnson

Velazquez, Hembree (no options)

 

Bubble:

Pomeranz, Kelly, Brasier, Workman::

 

Lock:

Vazquez

Bubble:

Leon, Swihart

 

Lock:

Moreland, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, JD

Near Lock:

Pearce, Kinsler, Nunez, Holt

 

 

You preface it with being 100% healthy and there is a ways to go for that and possibly includes additional injuries.

 

If we play along and assume 2 catchers will be involve. Swihart is very likely to be first in line if he keeps hitting anywhere near where he is now. In my opinion that leaves a pick between Vaz and Leon for the 2nd. Either is servicable. I think Kinsler will make it along with Nunez. Depending whose hitting remains acceptable either Holt or Pearce will be selected from.

 

I think they will keep Brasier and Kelly, provided Kelly gets form back.

 

That's 24 of the 25 so one of Pom, Workman, Pearce/Holr, Leon would fill the roster in. If we go 12 deep in pitching then Workman and Pom get left out and possibly Leon.

 

A lot can happen in the interim and we have to see how people perform down the stretch.

[oldtimer]

You preface it with being 100% healthy and there is a ways to go for that and possibly includes additional injuries.

 

If we play along and assume 2 catchers will be involve. Swihart is very likely to be first in line if he keeps hitting anywhere near where he is now. In my opinion that leaves a pick between Vaz and Leon for the 2nd. Either is servicable. I think Kinsler will make it along with Nunez. Depending whose hitting remains acceptable either Holt or Pearce will be selected from.

 

I think they will keep Brasier and Kelly, provided Kelly gets form back.

 

That's 24 of the 25 so one of Pom, Workman, Pearce/Holr, Leon would fill the roster in. If we go 12 deep in pitching then Workman and Pom get left out and possibly Leon.

 

A lot can happen in the interim and we have to see how people perform down the stretch.

 

It just occurred to me that Thornburg was left off the list. He certainly is one of our strong relievers at this point and will make the team ahead of several others.

[Larry Cook]

It just occurred to me that Thornburg was left off the list. He certainly is one of our strong relievers at this point and will make the team ahead of several others.

 

Since Thornburg changed his delivery, his ball is now moving through the strike zone.

 

He is starting to remind me of the guy I thought we were trading for.

[Bellhorn04]

What's our 100% healthy 25 man roster (no Pedey)?

 

lock:

Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod

Kimbel, Barnes

 

Near lock:

Eovaldi, Johnson

Velazquez, Hembree (no options)

 

Bubble:

Pomeranz, Kelly, Brasier, Workman::

 

Lock:

Vazquez

Bubble:

Leon, Swihart

 

Lock:

Moreland, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, JD

Near Lock:

Pearce, Kinsler, Nunez, Holt

 

 

Where's Thornburg?

[vegasbob]

Where's Thornburg?

 

Including Thornburg, there are 29 guys on the list for 25 seats. Which 4 go to start the playoffs, based on current record/trends: Pomeranz ; Johnson; Leon/Vazquez is a toss up , preference to Leon; Nunez , although that's kicking a guy who played to his best ability all year. Devers would be a bubble boy also based on results but I'm sure they'll keep him out there.

[a700hitter]

Including Thornburg, there are 29 guys on the list for 25 seats. Which 4 go to start the playoffs, based on current record/trends: Pomeranz ; Johnson; Leon/Vazquez is a toss up , preference to Leon; Nunez , although that's kicking a guy who played to his best ability all year. Devers would be a bubble boy also based on results but I'm sure they'll keep him out there.

Are you counting Workman in the 29? He would be a candidate to go. Also, there is probably no spot for Swihart on a playoff roster if Vasquez is back.

[oldtimer]

Including Thornburg, there are 29 guys on the list for 25 seats. Which 4 go to start the playoffs, based on current record/trends: Pomeranz ; Johnson; Leon/Vazquez is a toss up , preference to Leon; Nunez , although that's kicking a guy who played to his best ability all year. Devers would be a bubble boy also based on results but I'm sure they'll keep him out there.

 

It's typical to go with 12 pitchers. Including Thornburg, there were 15 listed. Drop any 3. Do we need 3 catchers? Maybe not since 2 do not hit well at all. So drop 1. Keep the rest. An alternative is keep Swihart as a utility guy, backup catcher and backup DH and keep 3 catchers getting rid of one of the near lock utility guys. Hard to drop Kinsler as he is our best defensive second baseman and Nunez is our best backup at 3rd.

 

All this may become moot due to injuries or poor performance during the next period before the playoff. Fun ot speculate though.

[FredLynn]

Are you counting Workman in the 29? He would be a candidate to go. Also, there is probably no spot for Swihart on a playoff roster if Vasquez is back.

 

If Swihart continues to perform then would submit that there is no room for VASQUEZ on the roster.

[moonslav59]

Where's Thornburg?

 

I forgot Wright, too.

[moonslav59]

Updated...

 

What's our 100% healthy 25 man roster (no Pedey)?

 

Lock:

Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod

Kimbel, Barnes

 

Near lock:

Eovaldi, Wright, Johnson

Velazquez, Hembree (no options), Thornburg, Kelly

 

Bubble:

Pomeranz, Brasier, Workman

 

Lock:

Vazquez

Bubble:

Leon, Swihart

 

Lock:

Moreland, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, JD

Near Lock:

Pearce, Kinsler, Nunez, Holt

 

14 Locks

11 Near Locks

5 Bubles (Leon/Swihart and Pom/Brasier/Workman)

 

Since we need 2 catchers, a "near lock" has to be moved to "Bubble". Who could that be?

 

Wright/Kelly/Thornburg/Hembree?

 

Holt/Nunez?

 

Edited August 2, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If Swihart continues to perform then would submit that there is no room for VASQUEZ on the roster.

 

Sorry, but I feel this is extremely absurd.

 

If anything, Leon would be traded or phantom DL'd, or Swihart would be traded.

 

Vaz is the starting catcher until Swihart shows he can do well for months and months- not a 32 PA stretch spread over 30 days.

[mvp 78]

Sorry, but I feel this is extremely absurd.

 

If anything, Leon would be traded or phantom DL'd, or Swihart would be traded.

 

Vaz is the starting catcher until Swihart shows he can do well for months and months- not a 32 PA stretch spread over 30 days.

 

Well, Vaz won't be able to come off from the DL until September. At that point, we'll know more about Swihart. Rosters will expand and they can carry 3 catchers. If Swihart is still playing well and calling a good game, either Leon or Vazquez won't make the postseason roster. Vaz has the edge due to his contract, but maybe Cora just likes Leon better?

[moonslav59]

Well, Vaz won't be able to come off from the DL until September. At that point, we'll know more about Swihart. Rosters will expand and they can carry 3 catchers. If Swihart is still playing well and calling a good game, either Leon or Vazquez won't make the postseason roster. Vaz has the edge due to his contract, but maybe Cora just likes Leon better?

 

Vaz is our number one catcher, and I doubt another month of good/great hitting by Swihart changes that.

 

I seriously doubt managers and GMs put as much stock in recent small sample size trends as some do here.

 

I'm not saying bench a hot hand, but Vaz hit .735 last year over 345 PAs and hit .860 in the month before his injury this year. That was a 60 PA sample size- nearly double Swihart's recent binge.

 

How is it that some posters discount Vaz's recent 60 PA sample size in favor of a 32 PA recent sample size?

 

(Also, Sandy hit .845 over the whole 2016 season in 283 PAs).

[mvp 78]

Vaz is our number one catcher, and I doubt another month of good/great hitting by Swihart changes that.

 

I seriously doubt managers and GMs put as much stock in recent small sample size trends as some do here.

 

I'm not saying bench a hot hand, but Vaz hit .735 last year over 345 PAs and hit .860 in the month before his injury this year. That was a 60 PA sample size- nearly double Swihart's recent binge.

 

How is it that some posters discount Vaz's recent 60 PA sample size in favor of a 32 PA recent sample size?

 

(Also, Sandy hit .845 over the whole 2016 season in 283 PAs).

 

It's not all about hitting. Vaz has sucked behind the plate this year. This can't be denied. 35 in dWAR. 69 in fWAR (nice).

[Hitch]

I would say that Leon is our No1 catcher from here on out this season. The battle to join him is between Vas and Swilhart.

[mvp 78]

@ByChrisMason

 

Devers is progressing well. Already ran the bases at 75 percent and he’s going to hit outside today.

[oldtimer]

@ByChrisMason

 

Devers is progressing well. Already ran the bases at 75 percent and he’s going to hit outside today.

 

His listed weight is bothersome. Shedding a few might help avoid more injuries and give him better range. At 21 you might be able to get away with carrying extra but for how long. If 237 is what he weighs now, it is heavy for a 6' ball player.