A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[jacksonianmarch]

Young pitchers build confidence from good outings. As much as the experience of pitching to JD can help them, coming out of a start with good numbers and positive vibes is just as important. Rodon was coming off a big injury and isn’t established yet, so getting a bit deeper with limited ER could help his confidence

[notin]

Young pitchers build confidence from good outings. As much as the experience of pitching to JD can help them, coming out of a start with good numbers and positive vibes is just as important. Rodon was coming off a big injury and isn’t established yet, so getting a bit deeper with limited ER could help his confidence

 

But are they prioritizing his confidence or just seeing how he pitches?

 

This isn't a team that is strategizing how to win. They want their young guys throwing well. If Rodon retires Martinez, wouldn't that bolster his confidence? And if he fails, big deal. The guy is crushing everyone anyway.

 

Teams more concerned with winning will pitch around Martinez. But right now, the Sox are not playing those teams. ..

[moonslav59]

Ever the optimist. Our catchers should hit better than the awful .450 start. Still not good though.

There's no reason to have expected a continued .450 OPS from our catchers. Even .600 would be a low expectation, but the difference between .450 and .600 is huge. It makes a big difference.There's no reason to view the recent .722 last 30-day OPS as a fluke.

I'll take .650 and be thrilled with our catchers. .722 would be gravy the rest of the way. It's the 11th best 30-day OPS in MLB.

It baffles me how so many Sox fans jump on bad short sample size numbers, but won't view positive ones with the same force.

 

Our catchers are not a weak point on this team, even if they hit .600 the rest of the way. It's more likely they hit between .650 and .725, IMO.

 

JBJ is going to hit .700+ . Think you are smoking something on that one.

I said .600 and "hopefully .700". JBJ has been streaky his whole career, and almost always has a very hot stretch every season that brings his OPS over .700 or even over .840. Why don't you explain why you think this season will be so much different than others? One could argue those who think JBJ will break the mold are the ones smoking something.

 

Bogey is better this year and if they can keep him in a good spot in the lineup the hope is he won't fade in the second half again this year.

Bogey clearly was playing hurt last year. if he stays healthy, IMO, he ends up over .800 easily.

 

Beni does look for real.

Glad you agree.

 

Moreland will get his extra base hits but I don't expect him to keep up at his current level.

I don't either, but I also expect those players not performing to expectations to do better and make up for those returning to earth. I do think there is a chance Moreland still ends up with a career best season- perhaps ending up over .800 or even .850.

 

Nunez is a pro and will be a solid contributor but Pedey is an unknown. Will he play in a significant number of games.

Maybe Holt takes up the slack. I'm not predicting it, but I should be allowed to be hopeful.

 

Devers looks like he will struggle this year. He needs to make adjustments at the plate and to date he has been slow to do so. He may need a threat of being sent down to realize he needs to change.

He's made adjustments at every level as he was fast-tracked up the minor league ladder. This one may take more time than others, but I'm confident he will come to life at some point this year. I was very fearful of him having to go through a learning curve during a championship run, and that's why I wanted us to sign Moose, but I never expected or thought demoting him was in the cards.

Maybe he ends up in AAA at some point, but I doubt it.

 

Holt is a pro but is always going to be a fill in.

That's all we need from him.

 

Swihart shows little sign of contributing.

3 for his last 21. Why the different criteria for him than Vaz, Leon & JBJ, who actually have been contributing to the team over the last month?

 

Yes, at times I am optimistic. I think it's hard not to be, when you consider we have played .677 ball, despite a bunch of missed time with player injuries.

 

We currently have Betts, Pedey, Pom, Thornburg, Smith, Maddox, Poyner and Walden on the DL. Bogey has missed time. Prcie has missed starts. ERod missed starts. Others have missed time and have played hurt.

 

Sure, we may flop again in the playoffs this year, but this is not the same team as last year or the one before.

 

We have the starting pitching.

We have the best closer in MLB and a deep pen.

Our defense has gotten better.

We are near the lead in runs scored.

 

You call this optimism: I call it realism.

[moonslav59]

My suggestion to moonslav is that he change the name of this thread because it's clearly no longer "A Realistic view of 2018" but rather "A Pessimistic bordering despairing Look at 2018" or maybe "A Realistic View of 2018 Sox Hitting Because We All Know Pitching is Unimportant."

 

Despite the gloom and doom on this thread, the Sox still the second best hitting in MLB and should improve when Mookie returns. That is fantastic! But not to TalkSoxers. Nosiree. We prefer to dwell on the failures.

 

And the pitching? With Pom on the DL, the Sox probably have the second best rotation (after Houston) in MLB with Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and Wright. So I have to ask: why isn't that both a good thing and something to be celebrated?

 

I read this after my most recent post.

 

You said it better than I.

 

The gloom & doomers are farther from reality than we are.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

At some point Moreland should be expected to return to who he is. His history shows that he is simply not a player who can be counted on to maintain a .955 OPS when his career has shown him to be more in the .750 territory. That has to be considered, they need the bottom to pick up that slack because I feel it's coming.

[moonslav59]

At some point Moreland should be expected to return to who he is. His history shows that he is simply not a player who can be counted on to maintain a .955 OPS when his career has shown him to be more in the .750 territory. That has to be considered' date=' they need the bottom to pick up that slack because I feel it's coming.[/quote']

 

Why not expect that JBJ, Nunez, Vaz, Leon & Devers will return to their norm (or recent 2-4 year norms) just as Moreland does to his?

 

On Moreland, everybody knows my feelings on his signing, and it's rare that a 32 year old has a career year, but he was doing very well last year before his injury, so maybe this is not so much a fluke as we think. of course, .950 is not something I expect him to continue, but he did go .812 in 2015 and was at .820 on July 4th last year.

 

It's not too far-fetched to think he might hit .800 the rest of the way- which might be all we need, if others start returning to their norms with upticks.

[harmony]

Over the past 30 days the Red Sox rank 13th out of 30 teams in catcher fWAR.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=3&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Edited June 10, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Over the past 30 days the Red Sox rank 13th out of 30 teams in catcher fWAR.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=3&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

What get me is that the same people who condemn on small sample sizes, disappear or find new small bad sample sizes to harp on when things start turning around to the good.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Why not expect that JBJ, Nunez, Vaz, Leon & Devers will return to their norm (or recent 2-4 year norms) just as Moreland does to his?

 

On Moreland, everybody knows my feelings on his signing, and it's rare that a 32 year old has a career year, but he was doing very well last year before his injury, so maybe this is not so much a fluke as we think. of course, .950 is not something I expect him to continue, but he did go .812 in 2015 and was at .820 on July 4th last year.

 

It's not too far-fetched to think he might hit .800 the rest of the way- which might be all we need, if others start returning to their norms with upticks.

 

Oh I agree. When I say the bottom of the order needs to pick up the slack from Moreland's inevitable regression to the norm I mean those guys have to hit as expected. And if he drops to .820 or so that' a big drop off from where he is now and that lost production needs to be found elsewhere. The obvious place for that is at the bottom of the order.

[moonslav59]

Oh I agree. When I say the bottom of the order needs to pick up the slack from Moreland's inevitable regression to the norm I mean those guys have to hit as expected. And if he drops to .820 or so that' a big drop off from where he is now and that lost production needs to be found elsewhere. The obvious place for that is at the bottom of the order.

 

Yes, and if Moreland ends up at .820, it would mean he would have to hit about ,720 the rest of the way. He may not do that. He could hit .780 the rest of the way and we see JBJ have a hot streak and Vaz and/or Nunez hit like 2017, or Leon like 2016, or Holt like 2018.

 

I'm done with Swihart.

[dgalehouse]

I read this after my most recent post.

 

You said it better than I.

 

The gloom & doomers are farther from reality than we are.

 

I think some fans have never completely recovered from the many disappointments and heartbreak of the pre 2004 years. The negativity and pessimism is too deeply ingrained in them , and nothing can totally change that. No matter how good the team may be , they will always be worried , unhappy and waiting for the other shoe to drop.

[moonslav59]

I think some fans have never completely recovered from the many disappointments and heartbreak of the pre 2004 years. The negativity and pessimism is too deeply ingrained in them , and nothing can totally change that. No matter how good the team may be , they will always be worried , unhappy and waiting for the other shoe to drop.

 

Agreed, and I was highly frustrated for over 4 decades of being a Sox fan.

 

Some of the bigger naysayers on this site seem to be younger.

[Bellhorn04]

I think some fans have never completely recovered from the many disappointments and heartbreak of the pre 2004 years. The negativity and pessimism is too deeply ingrained in them , and nothing can totally change that. No matter how good the team may be , they will always be worried , unhappy and waiting for the other shoe to drop.

 

I don't disagree. But I also think the pessimism has something to do with the nature of being a baseball fan. In baseball you are guaranteed to lose a lot of games no matter what. Some fans never seem to learn how to accept or handle this.

[SoxnCycles]

I don't disagree. But I also think the pessimism has something to do with the nature of being a baseball fan. In baseball you are guaranteed to lose a lot of games no matter what. Some fans never seem to learn how to accept or handle this.

 

Nailed it.

[moonslav59]

Last year, our line-up was pretty balanced 1 to 9, at least compared to most teams. Our issue was that we didn't have anybody having great seasons.

 

This year, we added JD, and several other hitters are having great seasons. At the same time, those who "balanced" our line-up last season are mostly off to poor starts, although a few have good numbers over the last 4-5 weeks.

 

When Betts returns, our line-up will be lengthened a little bit, but we will still need at least two of these guys returning to their career norm, their recent 2-3 year norm or their 2017 numbers, in the case of Vaz:

 

2B: Nunez, Pedey or Holt (Is Hernandez due back this year?)

 

3B: Devers, Nunez or Holt

 

CF/OF: JBJ, Nunez or Holt (Swihart)

 

C: Vaz, Leon or Swihart

 

There are 9 names here, and we need 2-3 to step up. Those might seem like long odds when you look at each player one-by-one, but when you put a lot of small odds together, they actually indicate someone will come through.

 

Holt has already done okay. Vaz, Leon and JBJ have shown faint signs of coming to life. Our biggest need seems to come from Pedey or Nunez.

 

 

[moonslav59]

AGon released by the Mets. Man, he fell fast and hard- mostly injury-related.

 

Another example of a long term, big dollar contract not working out.

 

Thanks, Ben for dumping him and CC just in time.

 

Of course, he wasn't a complete bust. He had several good seasons after the signing, but it sure ended badly.

[mvp 78]

AGon released by the Mets. Man, he fell fast and hard- mostly injury-related.

 

Another example of a long term, big dollar contract not working out.

 

Thanks, Ben for dumping him and CC just in time.

 

Of course, he wasn't a complete bust. He had several good seasons after the signing, but it sure ended badly.

 

It almost always ends badly unless you're Big Papi.

[moonslav59]

It almost always ends badly unless you're Big Papi.

 

...and he never signed a long term deal.

[moonslav59]

ERs allowed recently...

 

9 IP 2 ER (Porcello, Barnes, Hembree)

9 IP 0 ER (Wright, Velazquez, Workman)

9 IP 1 ER (ERod, Hembree, Barnes, Workman, Poyner)

9 IP 7 ER (Beeks, Johnson, Velazquez)

9 IP 1 ER (Sale, Hembree)

9 IP 2 ER (Price, Kelly, Barnes, Kimbrel)

9 IP 4 ER (Porcello, Hembree, Workman, Barnes)

12 IP 0 ER (Wright, Kelly, Johnsonm Workman, Hembree, Kimbrel)

 

66 IP 17 ER

 

2.32 ERA

 

Take away the Beeks game:

 

57 IP 10 ERs

 

1.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

Red Sox Scoring during last 8 games:

9

6

7

2

0

4

2

2

 

The last 5 games the scoring has been down and its a good thing our pitching was as good as it has been. With so little out of the bottom of the lineup and with Mookie just now getting back, it was probable that some of our bigger hitters would go through off periods. Moreland has been of late and JDM can't be a hero every night. Lets hope Mookie can get a good feel of ML pitching with a few more reps. The good news is Beni and Bogey still were productive last night.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

AGon released by the Mets. Man, he fell fast and hard- mostly injury-related.

 

Another example of a long term, big dollar contract not working out.

 

Thanks, Ben for dumping him and CC just in time.

 

Of course, he wasn't a complete bust. He had several good seasons after the signing, but it sure ended badly.

 

Unless I'm mistaken it appears as if his big contract expired in 2016, at that time he was still productive.

[Bellhorn04]

Unless I'm mistaken it appears as if his big contract expired in 2016' date=' at that time he was still productive.[/quote']

 

No, his contract didn't expire until this year. Atlanta is actually paying him the $22 million this year. They got him and Scott Kazmir when they traded Matt Kemp to the Dodgers. The Dodgers made out OK there since Kemp is having a good season.

[Dojji]

Red Sox Scoring during last 8 games:

9

6

7

2

0

4

2

2

 

The last 5 games the scoring has been down and its a good thing our pitching was as good as it has been. With so little out of the bottom of the lineup and with Mookie just now getting back, it was probable that some of our bigger hitters would go through off periods. Moreland has been of late and JDM can't be a hero every night. Lets hope Mookie can get a good feel of ML pitching with a few more reps. The good news is Beni and Bogey still were productive last night.

 

There's going to be times when the pitching has to carry the offense, and times when the offense has to carry the pitching. This is actually normal.

[jad]

AGon released by the Mets. Man, he fell fast and hard- mostly injury-related.

 

Another example of a long term, big dollar contract not working out.

 

Thanks, Ben for dumping him and CC just in time.

 

Of course, he wasn't a complete bust. He had several good seasons after the signing, but it sure ended badly.

 

I never did understand the vilification of Gonzalez, who was always a consistent hitter and performed exactly as he could have been expected to do while in Boston (well, I did understand it, but that had to do with the racist history of RS and their fans, not anything Agon did on the field ...)

[Bellhorn04]

I never did understand the vilification of Gonzalez, who was always a consistent hitter and performed exactly as he could have been expected to do while in Boston (well, I did understand it, but that had to do with the racist history of RS and their fans, not anything Agon did on the field ...)

 

I'm not so sure AGon was 'vilified'.

 

He had the misfortune of having his first season with the team end in one of the worst collapses in baseball history.

 

He said a few things that rubbed people the wrong way.

 

As for his play, he did disappoint in one regard. People were expecting a 40 home run slugger but his power seemed to have been diminished by his shoulder surgery.

[jad]

I'm not so sure AGon was 'vilified'.

 

He had the misfortune of having his first season with the team end in one of the worst collapses in baseball history.

 

He said a few things that rubbed people the wrong way.

 

As for his play, he did disappoint in one regard. People were expecting a 40 home run slugger but his power seemed to have been diminished by his shoulder surgery.

 

Well yes, I do agree with that, but that was like 'expecting' Crawford to be an MVP and hitting .300, or expecting JD Drew to have hall-of-fame years, rather than just perform as he always had performed. AG hit his customary .290/.300, no? (The phrase I heard consistently was 'he didn't fit in', and I'm pretty sure I know what the sub-text of that is when used in this area.) . I also think that he gets lumped in with Crawford, simply bec. they got rid of the contracts at the same time, but there's really no comparison as to performance.

[oldtimer]

I never did understand the vilification of Gonzalez, who was always a consistent hitter and performed exactly as he could have been expected to do while in Boston (well, I did understand it, but that had to do with the racist history of RS and their fans, not anything Agon did on the field ...)

 

Today we have people throwing around racism comments where they don't apply. During his time with the Sox they were past the Yawkey days. One or two fans in a 36,000 group of fans using racist comments does not make the crowd racist and I wouldn't at all be surprised if similar fans shouting hateful comments can be found in any of the ML parks.

[Bellhorn04]

Well yes, I do agree with that, but that was like 'expecting' Crawford to be an MVP and hitting .300, or expecting JD Drew to have hall-of-fame years, rather than just perform as he always had performed. AG hit his customary .290/.300, no? (The phrase I heard consistently was 'he didn't fit in', and I'm pretty sure I know what the sub-text of that is when used in this area.) . I also think that he gets lumped in with Crawford, simply bec. they got rid of the contracts at the same time, but there's really no comparison as to performance.

 

If we're going to look at a racist component, though, since you mentioned JD Drew, there was a good-looking white guy who took a pounding for his disappointing numbers and his supposed issues in the character area.

[illinoisredsox]

Well yes, I do agree with that, but that was like 'expecting' Crawford to be an MVP and hitting .300, or expecting JD Drew to have hall-of-fame years, rather than just perform as he always had performed. AG hit his customary .290/.300, no? (The phrase I heard consistently was 'he didn't fit in', and I'm pretty sure I know what the sub-text of that is when used in this area.) . I also think that he gets lumped in with Crawford, simply bec. they got rid of the contracts at the same time, but there's really no comparison as to performance.

.

 

So if you know the sub-text, how come David Ortiz and Pedro Martinez are beloved by Red Sox fans? Or Luis Tiant?

[jad]

I think there's an obvious reason why the charge is often made. Now mind you, I don't think Boston is in the same league as, say, the football team from Washington, and obviously things are improving since the days of Pumpsie Green. But it was the last baseball team to integrate, and that legacy is still with us, just as it is in D.C. I spend a lot of time in LA, and hear fans hurl invective about the Dodgers all the time (less so now that that a-hole McCourt is out of the picture), but I never hear that particular accusation; so it's not as if the charge is just tossed about at random.