A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Boy, do I agree with you and have to wonder what moonslav is thinking. If he's right, opposing managers preparing their teams for the next game against us would be saying something like this: "Guys, I know Sale is on the mound, but, without JBJ in CF, we will have no problem scoring runs. Just don't hit the ball to right field, and Benintendi or JD Martinez will let it drop in or go over their heads or whatever. This is a real break for us, and we need to capitalize."

 

Certainly, I do not think the increase in runs allowed is due to JBJ being benched... maybe a run or two.

 

I was trying to point out that we are not allowing all that many more now than in our first few games. Talk of our staff being in decline is just not something I am seeing.

 

Out of our last 11 games, we've let up ....

 

0-3 runs 5 times

4-5 runs 5 times

9 runs 1 time

 

[moonslav59]

But why? That team won 97 games and then went 11-5 in the playoffs. They never lost more than 3 games in a row all season.

 

True, but we lost 9 of 11 at one point and went 15-16 from April 30th to May 31st that championship season.

 

Did we look like a championship team during that period?

 

Do we look any worse now than we did then?

 

The Sox went 11-16 from June 28th to July 31st during the 2007 championship season.

 

Same thing about that team.

 

Most championship teams play like crap for stretches here and there- sometimes stretches that last 1-3 months.

[mvp 78]

JBJ didn't play last Friday in Toronto; Sale went 9, struck out 15 and walked no one. Was he nibbling that night as well?

 

I think he just didn't have his good stuff last night; no pitcher has it every game.

 

SSS alert!

[harmony]

Oakland starter Dave Mengden, who has stymied the Red Sox twice this season, talks about pitching to Sox hitters:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daniel-mengden-on-pitching-to-red-sox-hitters/

[Kimmi]

I do understand the somewhat philosophical point that August and October are more memorable than May, but May is where we are right now. It is a fact that we had a big lead over the Yankees and are now 1/2 game back of them.

I like moonslav's point that the bottom third of the order, bad as it is, is on a par with other good batting orders. But I already thought the hitting was pretty good. The Sox are 2d in MLB in runs scored.

 

My concern now is with the pitching. The rotation and bullpen are both struggling. Last year we didn't have Price and did have other issues, but the team ERA was still 4th best in MLB. Early this season with Johnson and Velazquez in the rotation, the team ERA was under 3 and 2d best in MLB.

 

Right now with Sale, Price, Porcello, Pom, and ERod all healthy and the bullpen fairly healthy, the ERA is 9th best in MLB. Whatever our guys are throwing, other teams seem to like it.

 

Or the other way to look at that is that the Yankees went 17-1 in an 18 game stretch while we scuffled at .500, and we are only 1/2 game back on them. It's all good Max. The Red Sox are fine.

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure the runs are due to JBJ sitting. How many extra balls would he have gotten to? 2? 3 at best? I don't it's even that many.

 

It's not just about how many extra balls JBJ would have gotten to over Beni. The LF defense is also weakened when JBJ sits.

 

Red Sox Stats

‏ @redsoxstats

42m42 minutes ago

 

With JBJ sitting the outfield defense is taking major blows. Based on statcast data Martinez ranks 152nd/181 in outs above average while Benny in CF a disaster, he ranks 179th/181 already at a -6. Betts is 6th best. Things get even worse as you add in arms.

[Bellhorn04]

Or the other way to look at that is that the Yankees went 17-1 in an 18 game stretch while we scuffled at .500, and we are only 1/2 game back on them. It's all good Max. The Red Sox are fine.

 

Kimmi! I was afraid you'd left us.

[Kimmi]

I don't know about you but I saw Chris Sale nibbling a hell of a lot more in yesterdays start without having JBj over his left shoulder. in fact he nibble so much he was barely able to get through 5 ip. thankfully our "good" bullpen showed up last night. hey, but if your happy with Chris Sale nibbling and only going 5 innings then...yeah...I guess your right....what is moon thinking.....

 

I happen to agree with completely about the importance of JBJ's defense, but I think Sale's nibbling has more to do with Vazquez being behind the plate instead of Leon. If I were Cora, I'd pair Sale up with Leon every time out.

[Kimmi]

SSS alert!

 

Just for you:

 

Red Sox Stats

‏ @redsoxstats

53m53 minutes ago

 

Devers is hitting 150/150/225 with 14 K and 0 BB in his last 11 games as his plate discipline has gone full Sandoval, swinging at 55% of the pitches he sees outside the strike zone.

 

But on a bright note, his defense isn't hurting us as much as some think:

 

Devers ranks 9th/25 third basemen with a league average 0 defensive runs saved (tie w/ Kris Bryant). 8 men have reached because of his errors, 6 have reached because of Beltre errors, 6 for Bregman, 5 for Longora, etc. Devers' range more than makes up for that correctable flaw.

[Kimmi]

Oakland starter Dave Mengden, who has stymied the Red Sox twice this season, talks about pitching to Sox hitters:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daniel-mengden-on-pitching-to-red-sox-hitters/

 

If I were Mengden, I wouldn't be giving away all my secrets about how I plan to attack hitters. Not that the Red Sox play the Athletics again this year, but still.

 

And IMO, that 'stache has to go.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi! I was afraid you'd left us.

 

Nah, somebody has to bring some normalcy to this place.

[moonslav59]

It's not just about how many extra balls JBJ would have gotten to over Beni. The LF defense is also weakened when JBJ sits.

 

Red Sox Stats

‏ @redsoxstats

42m42 minutes ago

 

With JBJ sitting the outfield defense is taking major blows. Based on statcast data Martinez ranks 152nd/181 in outs above average while Benny in CF a disaster, he ranks 179th/181 already at a -6. Betts is 6th best. Things get even worse as you add in arms.

 

Agreed, but then again, our 1B defense is improved.

[Bellhorn04]

Got no answer for you. I loved that team too. Guess I just can't be taken seriously!

 

You're an enigma, cp, that's what you are.

[Spudboy]

Just for you:

 

Red Sox Stats

‏ @redsoxstats

53m53 minutes ago

 

Devers is hitting 150/150/225 with 14 K and 0 BB in his last 11 games as his plate discipline has gone full Sandoval, swinging at 55% of the pitches he sees outside the strike zone.

 

But on a bright note, his defense isn't hurting us as much as some think:

 

Devers ranks 9th/25 third basemen with a league average 0 defensive runs saved (tie w/ Kris Bryant). 8 men have reached because of his errors, 6 have reached because of Beltre errors, 6 for Bregman, 5 for Longora, etc. Devers' range more than makes up for that correctable flaw.

 

Boom.

[notin]

If I were Mengden, I wouldn't be giving away all my secrets about how I plan to attack hitters. Not that the Red Sox play the Athletics again this year, but still.

 

And IMO, that 'stache has to go.

 

Do we really know he is telling the truth? I wouldn't trust anyone with a mustache reminiscent of a cartoon super villain...

[FredLynn]

It's not just about how many extra balls JBJ would have gotten to over Beni. The LF defense is also weakened when JBJ sits.

 

Red Sox Stats

‏ @redsoxstats

42m42 minutes ago

 

With JBJ sitting the outfield defense is taking major blows. Based on statcast data Martinez ranks 152nd/181 in outs above average while Benny in CF a disaster, he ranks 179th/181 already at a -6. Betts is 6th best. Things get even worse as you add in arms.

 

Of course its true that the OF defense suffers with JBJ on the bench. But our offense suffers even more with him in the lineup. He is as close as it comes to an automatic out. If our catchers were hitting we could tolerate his incompetence offensively, but we cannot afford two black holes in the lineup every day.

[notin]

Of course its true that the OF defense suffers with JBJ on the bench. But our offense suffers even more with him in the lineup. He is as close as it comes to an automatic out. If our catchers were hitting we could tolerate his incompetence offensively, but we cannot afford two black holes in the lineup every day.

 

Why not?

 

I've seen a lot of comments on this like it's a fact. But the Sox are 30-14 overall and 23-10 (.696) with 2 black holes in the starting lineup...

Edited May 18, 2018 by notin

[jacksonianmarch]

Why not?

 

I've seen a lot of comments on this like it's a fact. But the Sox are 30-14 overall and 23-10 (.696) with 2 black holes in the starting lineup...

 

You can carry 2 black holes, but you need to continue to get superhuman performances from the other 7. Your lineup can hum with 5 guys hitting at or above their career norms, assuming you have a good lineup at baseline. Once you start slipping into a minus territory with more guys slumping than hitting, you start to slump as a team. When you have 2 black holes, you need to have 5 of 7 riding high or else you'll struggle. For now, you've had Xander, Betts, JD, Hanley and Moreland flying high with Devers starting off well and being replaced by Beni in the positive territory. You continue to get 5 or 6 guys hitting at or better than their expectations, you'll be fine. But if JD and Betts slump at the same time, your lineup is going to fail

[moonslav59]

You can carry 2 black holes, but you need to continue to get superhuman performances from the other 7.

 

Actually, you don't. many championship teams have won with 2 or 3 black holes and not even one superman hitter.

 

You can win with pitching & defense and timely hitting with no superman or even 4-5 very good hitters (see KC).

 

You can win with a balanced 6-7 good hitters and decent pitching.

[oldtimer]

You can carry 2 black holes, but you need to continue to get superhuman performances from the other 7. Your lineup can hum with 5 guys hitting at or above their career norms, assuming you have a good lineup at baseline. Once you start slipping into a minus territory with more guys slumping than hitting, you start to slump as a team. When you have 2 black holes, you need to have 5 of 7 riding high or else you'll struggle. For now, you've had Xander, Betts, JD, Hanley and Moreland flying high with Devers starting off well and being replaced by Beni in the positive territory. You continue to get 5 or 6 guys hitting at or better than their expectations, you'll be fine. But if JD and Betts slump at the same time, your lineup is going to fail

 

I tend to agree with this. We haven't got much from Nunez as yet, but he is certainly capable of hitting better and Pedey will be back soon. Our lineup should get a boost from that. Hard to keep going all year, what with injuries and slumps to some that may be key now. Better to attempt to improve where we have nearly black holes. The optimist in me thinks Devers can and will do better and Vaz can come out of the terrible slump and at least be close to an average hitter for a catcher. JBJ just hasn't got the job done and at his experience level, it is hard to see him having much of a contribution to the offense. The mantra that I subscribe to is continuous improvement is the goal.

[notin]

You can carry 2 black holes, but you need to continue to get superhuman performances from the other 7. Your lineup can hum with 5 guys hitting at or above their career norms, assuming you have a good lineup at baseline. Once you start slipping into a minus territory with more guys slumping than hitting, you start to slump as a team. When you have 2 black holes, you need to have 5 of 7 riding high or else you'll struggle. For now, you've had Xander, Betts, JD, Hanley and Moreland flying high with Devers starting off well and being replaced by Beni in the positive territory. You continue to get 5 or 6 guys hitting at or better than their expectations, you'll be fine. But if JD and Betts slump at the same time, your lineup is going to fail

 

There's no magic formula to win a title.

 

For a long time, I kept seeing people say "You need an ace to win a title." But then KC won a World Series without an ace. When this was pointed out, the ace-supportes invariably sad "That's different. They had a killer bullpen."

 

Well that's the entire point. If you don't excel in one area, you can make up for it with better play in others. Pitching, defense, etc.

 

And really, weak hitting from the 8 and 9 spots in the lineup is fairly commonplace. How many championship teams had solid hitters in spots 1 through 9?

 

The only team in MLB history with a .300 hitter at every position was the 1930 Cardinals. And they didn't win the World Series...

[Maxbialystock]

You can carry 2 black holes, but you need to continue to get superhuman performances from the other 7. Your lineup can hum with 5 guys hitting at or above their career norms, assuming you have a good lineup at baseline. Once you start slipping into a minus territory with more guys slumping than hitting, you start to slump as a team. When you have 2 black holes, you need to have 5 of 7 riding high or else you'll struggle. For now, you've had Xander, Betts, JD, Hanley and Moreland flying high with Devers starting off well and being replaced by Beni in the positive territory. You continue to get 5 or 6 guys hitting at or better than their expectations, you'll be fine. But if JD and Betts slump at the same time, your lineup is going to fail

 

Meh. Black hole or not, this lineup is doing about as well as your guys. I don't disagree Betts and JDM could drop back, but at the same time think it's foolish to assume the black hole will stay that way. Leon and Vazquez have both hit in the past. Moreland is available to replace JBJ in the lineup. And Pedroia is due back this month.

 

So I'm not worried about the hitting, but am about the pitching, and there moonslav says I'm wrong--so I hope he is right. Overall, I expect this to be a real horse race, underscored by the fact that the teams have split 6 games and the Sox looked tougher in their losses than the Yankees did in theirs. The Sox had a real shot at winning games 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium, which happened when they were in one of their big winning streaks.

[moonslav59]

There's no magic formula to win a title.

 

For a long time, I kept seeing people say "You need an ace to win a title." But then KC won a World Series without an ace. When this was pointed out, the ace-supportes invariably sad "That's different. They had a killer bullpen."

 

Well that's the entire point. If you don't excel in one area, you can make up for it with better play in others. Pitching, defense, etc.

 

And really, weak hitting from the 8 and 9 spots in the lineup is fairly commonplace. How many championship teams had solid hitters in spots 1 through 9?

 

The only team in MLB history with a .300 hitter at every position was the 1930 Cardinals. And they didn't win the World Series...

 

The thing is, the Royals didn't even have decent starters in several slots, and they had weak hitting.

 

Imagine if the current Sox had these numbers, and someone said we'd win it all this year....

 

KC Royals top 9 hitters (265+ PAs)

5 hitters between .809 and .847 (pretty good, but no superman and no 2 guys above .840)

.706

.640

.614

.552

 

Nobody with more than 22 HRs.

 

Two guys with more than 82 RBI.

 

Now, look at their top 6 SP'ers 81+ IP):

3.58 Volquez

4.08 Ventura

6.10 Guthrie

4.35 Duffy

3.18 Young

4.76 Cueto

 

This fits no model for winning championships. It's also hard to call it a fluke, as this team made it to the WS the previous season.

 

The 2014 team had even more startling numbers:

 

No top 9 PA player had an OPS above .783!

Only one of their top 15 PA hitters was above .751.

Only 2 of the top 12 were above .716!!!!

Imagine a Sox team with those numbers!

 

Their starting pitching was much better with 4 of their top 5 starters having an ERA below 3.72.

 

[moonslav59]

Meh. Black hole or not, this lineup is doing about as well as your guys. I don't disagree Betts and JDM could drop back, but at the same time think it's foolish to assume the black hole will stay that way. Leon and Vazquez have both hit in the past. Moreland is available to replace JBJ in the lineup. And Pedroia is due back this month.

 

So I'm not worried about the hitting, but am about the pitching, and there moonslav says I'm wrong--so I hope he is right. Overall, I expect this to be a real horse race, underscored by the fact that the teams have split 6 games and the Sox looked tougher in their losses than the Yankees did in theirs. The Sox had a real shot at winning games 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium, which happened when they were in one of their big winning streaks.

 

The Yanks have 3 of their top 8 players by PA total with an OPS below .685. Two are below .647 and their 8th place guys is at .557.

 

They have had black holes, too.

[Maxbialystock]

The Yanks have 3 of their top 8 players by PA total with an OPS below .685. Two are below .647 and their 8th place guys is at .557.

 

They have had black holes, too.

 

I just looked their individual OWAR's (offensive wins above replacement) for their 9 best hitters: the total for those 9 is 7.7. The total for the Sox 9 best is 9.1.

[moonslav59]

I just looked their individual OWAR's (offensive wins above replacement) for their 9 best hitters: the total for those 9 is 7.7. The total for the Sox 9 best is 9.1.

 

...and we should have Pedey coming back soon and Bogey rising up the team PA rankings as he returned from time on the DL.

 

Maybe Moreland (over 1.000) squeezes his way into the top 9.

 

Holt's at #11 and has an .834 OPS.

 

Sure, the Yanks have Torres (.865) at #10 and #11 Torreyes at .786, but our hitters have stacked up nicely with the Yanks.

 

Our team OPS are nearly identical.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Great to see Mr Tingles (did I do that right?) have a great outing. His velocity was up and that sets up everything for him. So pissed Machado took him deep, he was so close.

 

As for the 2 black holes I am kind of surprised people are defending that. Sure teams can and have won that way but why on Earth would you try? Mooreland is hitting way over his head and will fall back at some point, it's very possible that the guys at the top who have carried this team can fall back as well. Is anyone convinced the New Hanley will continue for 4+ months? And even if none of the above happens it's crazy for any team, even one in first place, to have 2 automatic outs in the lineup. I was happy JBJ scored that run by outrunning a good throw, hoped that would give him a jump start. But 2 pop outs later it was business as usual.

Edited May 18, 2018 by Yaz Fan Since '67

[jad]

Great to see Mr Tingles (did I do that right?) have a great outing. His velocity was up and that sets up everything for him. So pissed Machado took him deep, he was so close.

 

As for the 2 black holes I am kind of surprised people are defending that. Sure teams can and have won that way but why on Earth would you try? Mooreland is hitting way over his head and will fall back at some point, it's very possible that the guys at the top who have carried this team can fall back as well. Is anyone convinced the New Hanley will continue for 4+ months? And even if none of the above happens it's crazy for any team, even one in first place, to have 2 automatic outs in the lineup. I was happy JBJ scored that run by outrunning a good throw, hoped that would give him a jump start. But 2 pop outs later it was business as usual.

 

OK. But exactly what do you recommend they do about it? Any players you acquire (and could you get any as good as, say,Nunez [remember how he virtually carried the team last year], Hanley [how's he doing this year?], and JBJ? [capable of extraordinary hot streaks]). Anyone you get is going to be as subject to slumps as these are. Hitters like Martinez are not out there just waiting to be picked up on the waiver wire, or traded for unproductive, streaky players.

[moonslav59]

Great to see Mr Tingles (did I do that right?) have a great outing. His velocity was up and that sets up everything for him. So pissed Machado took him deep, he was so close.

 

As for the 2 black holes I am kind of surprised people are defending that. Sure teams can and have won that way but why on Earth would you try? Mooreland is hitting way over his head and will fall back at some point, it's very possible that the guys at the top who have carried this team can fall back as well. Is anyone convinced the New Hanley will continue for 4+ months? And even if none of the above happens it's crazy for any team, even one in first place, to have 2 automatic outs in the lineup. I was happy JBJ scored that run by outrunning a good throw, hoped that would give him a jump start. But 2 pop outs later it was business as usual.

 

Of course, I'd rather us not have 2 black holes in our line-up, and I'm not against trying to fix the problems, if it's still there in a month or two.

 

I do not think JBJ and our catchers will continue hitting between .440 and .550 for the rest of the season, so the problem may solve itself at some point, maybe even starting tonight.

 

We can fix the JBJ offense problem by hurting our defense and playing JD or Nunez in the OF. Pedey's return should minimize Nunez's performance to date. That leave just our catchers. I'm not "defending" thier .440 OPS, but I do feel their defense and rapport with our staff makes up for a big chunk of the negative we have gotten on offense. If they're still at .445 on July 31st, one, I'll be surprised and two, I may be convinced we need a change by then.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Of course, I'd rather us not have 2 black holes in our line-up, and I'm not against trying to fix the problems, if it's still there in a month or two.

 

I do not think JBJ and our catchers will continue hitting between .440 and .550 for the rest of the season, so the problem may solve itself at some point, maybe even starting tonight.

 

We can fix the JBJ offense problem by hurting our defense and playing JD or Nunez in the OF. Pedey's return should minimize Nunez's performance to date. That leave just our catchers. I'm not "defending" thier .440 OPS, but I do feel their defense and rapport with our staff makes up for a big chunk of the negative we have gotten on offense. If they're still at .445 on July 31st, one, I'll be surprised and two, I may be convinced we need a change by then.

 

As I have said I don't feel JBJ's defense takes away enough hits to justify his automatic out in the lineup. He may get hot but how long will that take? I think a lineup with JD in left and Bennitendi in center with a different bat in the 8 spot will work out better.