A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[mvp 78]

I really don't think Cora or the team want Barnes to be the 8th inning guy on a consistent basis. If we're lucky, by the end of the year we'll have Thornburg, Smith and Kelly pitching well and they'll be getting those 8th inning gigs ahead of Barnes.

 

I have to say, I'm disappointed in Smith this year. I hope he turns it around.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I have to say, I'm disappointed in Smith this year. I hope he turns it around.

 

It is a small sample size, but since April 30: Smith 4 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 0 BB.

 

If Smith can emerge as a shutdown 8th inning guy, you have your closer next year. I don't want the Red Sox to invest 80-90 million in Kimbrel, who will probably be expecting Chapman-like money.

[Spudboy]

Major league leaders in SLG:

 

Betts .803

Trout .681

Machado .629

 

OPS:

 

Betts 1.244

Trout 1.134

Machado 1.068

 

Betts is a small Griffy Jr.

[Bellhorn04]

It is a small sample size, but since April 30: Smith 4 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 0 BB.

 

He's definitely looked better. You can tell Cora is still cautious about using him too much though. That could change.

[moonslav59]

I have to say, I'm disappointed in Smith this year. I hope he turns it around.

 

Me, too.

 

Worst case scenario, he makes a big error to eliminate us. Imagine how that might affect a 20 year-old.

 

He seems to have enough of the "right stuff" to not let it get him too far down, if it happens.

[Bellhorn04]

Me, too.

 

Worst case scenario, he makes a big error to eliminate us. Imagine how that might affect a 20 year-old.

 

He seems to have enough of the "right stuff" to not let it get him too far down, if it happens.

 

You Mister Magoo'd that one, mvp was talking about C. Smith.

[Spudboy]

You Mister Magoo'd that one, mvp was talking about C. Smith.

 

In the best case Ontario.

[mvp 78]

Pedey hopes for AAA rehab starts early next week.

[User Name]

That might be, but it lists Devers as the 4th ranked 3rd baseman in the majors; if so, then every 3rd sacker in the big leagues absolutely blows as a fielder.

 

And I repeat, how can a stat be considered seriously if if differs so greatly from site to site.

 

Because they use a different formula. This takes 30 seconds to figure out if you're actually interested in understanding instead of criticizing the stat.

[Larry Cook]

This team is dying. That locker room is screaming for a leader.

 

Unfortunately all we have are zombies!

[moonslav59]

This team is dying. That locker room is screaming for a leader.

 

Unfortunately all we have are zombies!

 

It's amazing how two people can see exactly the opposite thing.

[notin]

It's amazing how two people can see exactly the opposite thing.

 

As far away from the situation as we all are, I'm surprised any of us can see anything at all...

[Hitch]

This team is dying. That locker room is screaming for a leader.

 

Unfortunately all we have are zombies!

 

We certainly have started the season very poorly...

[oldtimer]

This team is dying. That locker room is screaming for a leader.

 

Unfortunately all we have are zombies!

 

The team has been on the road and playing virtually every day and with a particularly tough series against the Yankees followed by an arrival in Toronto at 4 AM. Clearly many of the players were tired for last night's game. In particular, Hanley looked bad at bat and to some degree so did Beni. It was a shame to see such a fine effort by Sale go unrewarded. After what appeared to be a move by the Sox to prevent the Jays from stealing signs, Sale looked great and went a full 9 innings with one problem. I told my wife, that this game smells of a loss about the 5th inning. Opportunities to score were squandered and it was just a matter of time before we gave something up as we just weren't scoring.

 

I really didn't understand why Hanley couldn't score on the long double off the top of the wall which bounced away from the outfielder. Couldn't have been running hard the whole time.

 

I wonder why Beni is hitting so many balls foul to the left. It's like he is late on almost all his swings. It looks like he could make a minor change and hit more balls up the middle or to right field.

 

At any rate, we are a tired team and I hope that they get decent rest before game two and that the sign stealing will be handled from out one this time and that some of our hitters get it going today.

[S5Dewey]

That might be, but it lists Devers as the 4th ranked 3rd baseman in the majors; if so, then every 3rd sacker in the big leagues absolutely blows as a fielder.

 

And I repeat, how can a stat be considered seriously if if differs so greatly from site to site.

 

You don't want to go there. This is a battle I've been fighting for years here. I have no issue with two different sources trying to use statistics to determine who the better players are but when those two different sources use different methods and then label it the same it does nothing but cause confusion.

 

BTW, if anyone is interested here's what Bill James has to say about WAR - and he even mentions "clutch" too!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/11/20/bill-james-who-spurred-baseballs-analytics-revolution-is-waging-a-mini-war-on-war/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6ace3a6a0562

[Slasher9]

You don't want to go there. This is a battle I've been fighting for years here. I have no issue with two different sources trying to use statistics to determine who the better players are but when those two different sources use different methods and then label it the same it does nothing but cause confusion.

 

BTW, if anyone is interested here's what Bill James has to say about WAR - and he even mentions "clutch" too!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/11/20/bill-james-who-spurred-baseballs-analytics-revolution-is-waging-a-mini-war-on-war/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6ace3a6a0562

 

Good stuff.

[jad]

This team is dying. That locker room is screaming for a leader.

 

Unfortunately all we have are zombies!

 

Totally agree. ... Of course, the RS also have the best record in baseball. So maybe this is the way to go.

[Bellhorn04]

You don't want to go there. This is a battle I've been fighting for years here. I have no issue with two different sources trying to use statistics to determine who the better players are but when those two different sources use different methods and then label it the same it does nothing but cause confusion.

 

BTW, if anyone is interested here's what Bill James has to say about WAR - and he even mentions "clutch" too!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/11/20/bill-james-who-spurred-baseballs-analytics-revolution-is-waging-a-mini-war-on-war/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6ace3a6a0562

 

This is really interesting. Deserves a thread of its own.

[Bellhorn04]

This team is dying. That locker room is screaming for a leader.

 

Unfortunately all we have are zombies!

 

Please don't start with the zombie s*** again.

 

Stick with the prospect reports, you're good with those.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It is a small sample size, but since April 30: Smith 4 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 0 BB.

 

If Smith can emerge as a shutdown 8th inning guy, you have your closer next year. I don't want the Red Sox to invest 80-90 million in Kimbrel, who will probably be expecting Chapman-like money.

 

Another awesome inning from Smith. Since April 30: 5 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks, 0 BB. The ERA is now below 4.00.

 

I would play Holt over Nunez at 2b at this point. If Holt can hit, say, .280 and play better 2b defense, he deserves to start over Nunez who isn't hitting and is a shaky defender.

[Maxbialystock]

Good stuff.

 

All Bill James says is that WAR isn't a perfect stat, and everybody knew that. The article does point out that the MVP lately, since 2012, has the highest WAR from fangraphs. I like WAR, but I don't think it's perfect and would never follow it slavishly as the MVP voters seem to be doing.

 

And what I like about WAR is that it at least tries to combine all the attributes--offense and defense and baserunning--of a lineup player. I also like Ken Pomeroy's NCAA basketball statistics because they are pretty good. But Pomeroy is always tinkering with them based on new information and insights. One hopes that fangraphs has the same approach because combining attributes is tricky business.

 

On talksox, for example, we have a strong contingent of folks who believe that defense, especially "up the middle defense," which basically means catcher, 2b, SS, and CF, is so important that offensive skills at those positions are secondary if the defensive skills are roughly gold glove (or what gold glove should be).

 

Me, I'm pretty much the opposite. I think "weak bat, good glove" is automatically a utility guy, with the possible exception of catcher. I say that, not so much because Leon and Vazquez ain't hitting much these days, but because Saltamacchia was the polar opposite--good bat, weak glove. He was our starting catcher in the wildly successful 2013 season, and the Sox flat let him go the next year by not making him a qualifying offer.

[Bellhorn04]

I say that, not so much because Leon and Vazquez ain't hitting much these days, but because Saltamacchia was the polar opposite--good bat, weak glove. He was our starting catcher in the wildly successful 2013 season, and the Sox flat let him go the next year by not making him a qualifying offer.

 

Farrell gave up on Salty in the 2013 World Series and went with Ross the final 3 games, all of them wins.

[moonslav59]

I'm not going to say that history has a way of repeating itself, but for those who choose to judge this team based on just its last 19 games (9-10 record), you might want to look this over:

 

2004 Red Sox Champions

16-14 in May

11-14 in June

14-12 in July

That's 3 straight months of .500 ball.

 

We had one stretch where we went 16-17. An overlapping stretch saw us go 11-17! That was from May 31st to July 2nd. Shortly after that, we had a 5 game winning streak followed by a 3-8 stretch. We also lost 5 of 7 in September.

 

We swept the World Series!

 

Year after year, teams hit hard times. It's totally natural and should be expected. Why it always seems so shocking to some always surprises me. Too many knee-jerk reactions based on what people saw in just one game, one week or even one or 2 months. Baseball is a 162 game season for a reason. It's not like basketball or football where the better team almost always wins. To me, that's one part of the game that makes it great. To others, it seems it's just a source of frustration that turns to negativity, sometime brutal, personal and unrelenting.

 

I'm not asking people to change their personalities or outlooks, but I can't help but feel like it gets pretty ridiculous at times.

 

 

Want another example? How about 2007?

We went 37-37 from May 11th to July 31st. That's nearly half a season of .500 ball. We swept the World Series.

 

We took four of six in the 2013 World Series, despite going 15-16 from April 30th to May 31st. Again, a longer stretch of struggles than the one we are going through now. in 2013, we lost 6 of 9 near the end of July, We lost 6 of 8 in August and ended the season going 5-6. I remember there were nay-sayers in all those seasons, and I can understand feeling like the team does not look like a champion at various times of the season. I get it. That's natural, too.

 

Then, there are the teams in history that seem to do everything right just about all season long, then lose in the playoffs. I won't even go there other than to say that in-season judgements are often not true in October (Dodgers 2017).

 

My point is that it seems futile to try and definitively judge a team based on 20, 30 or even 60 game sample size, at times. Baseball is a "long look" sport that seems to spook the "Now, Now, Now generation".

 

Sit back, chill out and enjoy the season. It's going to be a great one!

Edited May 12, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Farrell gave up on Salty in the 2013 World Series and went with Ross the final 3 games, all of them wins.

 

Here's another example:

 

In 2009, Tito benched VTek in favor of a known better hitting catcher (VMart) for every playoff game and we got swept.

 

Our SP'ers allow these runs per IP:

 

3 in 6.0 Lester (4 BB & 4H)

4 in 6.2 Beckett (1BB & 5H)

2 ER in 5.0 Buchholz (1BB & 6H)

 

Totals:

7 ER in 17.2 IP by our starters (3.56), but the pen brought us to 16 ER in 25 IP overall (5.76 ERA).

 

Note: Swihart is not known to be a better hitter than anybody.

[Maxbialystock]

Farrell gave up on Salty in the 2013 World Series and went with Ross the final 3 games, all of them wins.

 

Yes, indeed. I remember it well.

[Maxbialystock]

Here's another example:

 

In 2009, Tito benched VTek in favor of a known better hitting catcher (VMart) for every playoff game and we got swept.

 

Our SP'ers allow these runs per IP:

 

3 in 6.0 Lester (4 BB & 4H)

4 in 6.2 Beckett (1BB & 5H)

2 ER in 5.0 Buchholz (1BB & 6H)

 

Totals:

7 ER in 17.2 IP by our starters (3.56), but the pen brought us to 16 ER in 25 IP overall (5.76 ERA).

 

Note: Swihart is not known to be a better hitter than anybody.

 

That last is sad but true. What we know is that he is a good athlete and somewhat versatile. But I honestly don't see a fit for him on this Sox team. I believe the people most against him catching are the pitchers. His I think two starts were as DH, which speaks volumes. On top of which, his manager is a guy who loves to use his bench to the degree that many talksoxer's have complained he does that way too much.

[moonslav59]

That last is sad but true. What we know is that he is a good athlete and somewhat versatile. But I honestly don't see a fit for him on this Sox team. I believe the people most against him catching are the pitchers. His I think two starts were as DH, which speaks volumes. On top of which, his manager is a guy who loves to use his bench to the degree that many talksoxer's have complained he does that way too much.

 

Yes, and the fact that Cora loves to use his bench and has barely used Swihart speaks volumes.

[notin]

All Bill James says is that WAR isn't a perfect stat, and everybody knew that. The article does point out that the MVP lately, since 2012, has the highest WAR from fangraphs. I like WAR, but I don't think it's perfect and would never follow it slavishly as the MVP voters seem to be doing.

 

And what I like about WAR is that it at least tries to combine all the attributes--offense and defense and baserunning--of a lineup player. I also like Ken Pomeroy's NCAA basketball statistics because they are pretty good. But Pomeroy is always tinkering with them based on new information and insights. One hopes that fangraphs has the same approach because combining attributes is tricky business.

 

On talksox, for example, we have a strong contingent of folks who believe that defense, especially "up the middle defense," which basically means catcher, 2b, SS, and CF, is so important that offensive skills at those positions are secondary if the defensive skills are roughly gold glove (or what gold glove should be).

 

Me, I'm pretty much the opposite. I think "weak bat, good glove" is automatically a utility guy, with the possible exception of catcher. I say that, not so much because Leon and Vazquez ain't hitting much these days, but because Saltamacchia was the polar opposite--good bat, weak glove. He was our starting catcher in the wildly successful 2013 season, and the Sox flat let him go the next year by not making him a qualifying offer.

 

What stat is perfect? What method of player evaluation is perfect?

 

James himself has had his own all-encompassing stats, like Win Shares, which eventually lead to the pre-cursors of WAR, VORP and WARP.

 

If the only criticism of WAR is that it isn't perfect, tell me what metric is...

[Bellhorn04]

What stat is perfect? What method of player evaluation is perfect?

 

James himself has had his own all-encompassing stats, like Win Shares, which eventually lead to the pre-cursors of WAR, VORP and WARP.

 

If the only criticism of WAR is that it isn't perfect, tell me what metric is...

 

Did you read James's actual comments though? Some of them were a little surprising. He was highly critical of choosing the MVP based on WAR alone and not looking at the situational hitting stats. He said that Altuve should have easily won the MVP over Judge because Altuve's numbers in high-leverage situations were so much better, and that he therefore contributed more directly to wins.

 

James also scoffed at the value of Pythagorean record and suggested that the difference between the Yankees Pythagorean record and their actual record demonstrated that they were not good in close games-seemingly discounting the randomness aspect.

 

That's the way I read it, anyway.

[moonslav59]

Did you read James's actual comments though? Some of them were a little surprising. He was highly critical of choosing the MVP based on WAR alone and not looking at the situational hitting stats. He said that Altuve should have easily won the MVP over Judge because Altuve's numbers in high-leverage situations were so much better, and that he therefore contributed more directly to wins.

 

James also scoffed at the value of Pythagorean record and suggested that the difference between the Yankees Pythagorean record and their actual record demonstrated that they were not good in close games-seemingly discounting the randomness aspect.

 

That's the way I read it, anyway.

 

I'm not so sure the MVP has been chosen based on WAR or mostly because of WAR.

 

It really shouldn't be a surprise that the WAR leader is judged to be the MVP almost all the time. It could have happened, even if the WAR numbers were somehow kept sectret until after the voting took place.

 

While hitting in the clutch and high leverage situations should be considered, I actually think it has been considered. Voters remember who got a lot of "big hits" when needed most and that is part of being the most valuable.

 

Altuve got 27 first place votes to Judge's 2. Jose Ramirez got 1.

 

Altuve's bWAR was 8.3 to 8.1 over Judge, suggesting the vote could have been closer. The fWAR had Judge ahead 8.2 to 7.6.

 

I like WAR a lot, but it is not perfect. I do think Altuve should have won the MVP.