A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

If you think Holt hitting .711 like 2014 and .727 like 2015 would be a 2+ WAR player this year (playing FT), with his defense the way it is now, then I'll have to disagree.

 

I realize my opinion differs from others, and I'm not pretending to know more than anyone else here, but here's how I see Holt's position on any long term injury depth chart: (Note: if someone gets hurt long term the job might be shared, but the player I put ahead of Holt, should in my opinion, get more time.)

 

1B: HRam> Moreland> Swihart> Call up Travis, then Holt

2B: Pedroia> Nunez> Hernandez, Lin or Holt

3B: Devers> Nunez> Hernandez, Lin, Swihart or Holt

SS: Bogaerts> Nunez> Lin> Hernandez or Holt

LF: Beni> Nunez or JMart> Swihart or Moreland, then Holt

CF & RF: Move Beni to CF and put in LF: Nunez or JMart> Swihart or Moreland, then Holt

 

I see Holt no better than tied for 3rd slot at 2B and 3B and no better than the 4th slot at other positions. Paying $2.2M for that is not a very good idea, IMO.

 

a) If Holt gets back up to speed why would his defense be significantly worse than it was in 14-15? He didn't have a knee injury, he had concussion/vertigo.

The opinions of Dombrowski, Cora et al will always matter to me about 200% than anyone here. They've got infinitely more info than we do.

[moonslav59]

a) If Holt gets back up to speed why would his defense be significantly worse than it was in 14-15? He didn't have a knee injury, he had concussion/vertigo.

The opinions of Dombrowski, Cora et al will always matter to me about 200% than anyone here. They've got infinitely more info than we do.

 

His defense was getting worse before the concussion and was never very good to begin with.

 

fangraphs had is defense listed as such:

 

2014: +0.8

2015: -2.4

2016: -4.1

2017: -2.4

So far in 2018, -0.1 (this is a cumulative number). His UZR/150 at 2B this year is -32.5, but it is a tiny sample size.

 

Like I said, it's just my opinion, and it certainly is possible for Holt to repeat his 2014 or 2015 season as he nears age 30, but I don't see it happening. I don't think the weight gain will help improve his defense. He looks slower to me as well.

 

His fangraphs base running numbers look like this:

 

+4.8 2014

+5.2 2015 (He was a very good runner back then)

+3.1 2016

-2.2 2017

-1.1 2018 (again, this is cumulative and looks like a horrible start)

-

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have managed an American League-leading 12-2 record without left-hander Drew Pomeranz, who’s on the DL with a forearm flexor strain. But Pomeranz is nearing his 2018 debut, according to Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. The 29-year-old made a Double-A rehab start Friday, and his next outing will be the Red Sox, according to manager Alex Cora. Pomeranz will take the hill either Thursday against the Angels or Friday versus the Athletics. This could be the last season in Boston for Pomeranz, who’s scheduled to hit free agency next winter.

[moonslav59]

Here's something interesting I found on soxprospects.com

 

League wide #MLB swing & miss %

2018 25.4%

2017 24.5%

2016 23.8%

2015 23.2%

2014 22.7%

2013 22.4%

2012 22.2%

2011 21.1%

2010 21%

2009 20.6%

2008 20.4%

2007 20.1%

2006 19.8%

2005 19.4%

[Hugh2]

Here's something interesting I found on soxprospects.com

 

League wide #MLB swing & miss %

2018 25.4%

2017 24.5%

2016 23.8%

2015 23.2%

2014 22.7%

2013 22.4%

2012 22.2%

2011 21.1%

2010 21%

2009 20.6%

2008 20.4%

2007 20.1%

2006 19.8%

2005 19.4%

 

I think this just goes to show that teams are more and more viewing the strikeout as just another out.

[harmony]

Bring Marrero back!

 

LOL

Deven Marrero suffered a tough break Saturday evening:

 

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2018/04/14/arizona-diamondbacks-deven-marrero-loses-home-run-after-passing-baserunner/518254002/

[Nick]

I think this just goes to show that teams are more and more viewing the strikeout as just another out.

 

I used to hope that Jason Veritek would strike out with less than two outs with runners on base so he wouldn't hit into rally killing double play.

[Nick]

a) If Holt gets back up to speed why would his defense be significantly worse than it was in 14-15? He didn't have a knee injury, he had concussion/vertigo.

The opinions of Dombrowski, Cora et al will always matter to me about 200% than anyone here. They've got infinitely more info than we do.

 

Well, 24 out of 25 isn't too bad.

[moonslav59]

Deven Marrero suffered a tough break Saturday evening:

 

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2018/04/14/arizona-diamondbacks-deven-marrero-loses-home-run-after-passing-baserunner/518254002/

 

Yeah, I saw that! Weird play!

[moonslav59]

a) If Holt gets back up to speed why would his defense be significantly worse than it was in 14-15?

 

Cause he got fat, maybe?

[Bellhorn04]

Cause he got fat, maybe?

 

Possibly, yes. I'm not sure he's exactly fat though. He's definitely bigger.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS leaders

 

1.238 Lin (14 PAs)

1.111 XB

1.059 Betts

.955 HRam

.844 Swihart (10 PAs)

.829 Beni

.824 JMart

.814 Nunez

.811 Moreland (30 PAs)

.721 Devers

.552 JBJ

.510 Holt (29 PAs)

.512 Vaz

.333 Leon (18 PAs)

 

We have 7 guys with 9 or more rbi:

15 HRam

13 JMart

10 Betts & Devers

9 XB & Beni

(61 MLB players have 9 or more rbis- we have 7 of them! BTW, AGon has 9 rbi.)

 

 

14 by all the rest combined (Nunez with 6)

 

WHIP

0.76 Porcello

0.86 Kimbrel

0.95 Sale

1.00 Price & Hembree

1.20 Kelly

1.24 Velazquez

1.29 Poyner

1.30 Johnson

1.33 Walden

1.35 Barnes

1.49 ERod

2.14 Smith

 

ERA-

0 Kimbrel

29 Sale

44 Porcello

57 Price

61 Poyner

65 Johnson

79 Velazquez

89 ERod

97 Barnes

108 Hembree

119 Walden

129 Kelly

184 Smith

 

Team Leaders in ERA-

70 BOS & HOU

71 NYM

76 CLE

77 MN

81 AZ

...24th NYY at 117

 

Runs scored

103 LAA

89 BOS

87 Pitt

...7th NYY at 77

 

Sox are 3rd in team OPS at .795, while NYY are 7th at .755.

 

We're 23rd in HRs, but nobody seems to care about that anymore.

 

[Nick]

Sox OPS leaders

 

1.238 Lin (14 PAs)

1.111 XB

1.059 Betts

.955 HRam

.844 Swihart (10 PAs)

.829 Beni

.824 JMart

.814 Nunez

.811 Moreland (30 PAs)

.721 Devers

.552 JBJ

.510 Holt (29 PAs)

.512 Vaz

.333 Leon (18 PAs)

 

We have 7 guys with 9 or more rbi:

15 HRam

13 JMart

10 Betts & Devers

9 XB & Beni

(61 MLB players have 9 or more rbis- we have 7 of them! BTW, AGon has 9 rbi.)

 

 

14 by all the rest combined (Nunez with 6)

 

WHIP

0.76 Porcello

0.86 Kimbrel

0.95 Sale

1.00 Price & Hembree

1.20 Kelly

1.24 Velazquez

1.29 Poyner

1.30 Johnson

1.33 Walden

1.35 Barnes

1.49 ERod

2.14 Smith

 

ERA-

0 Kimbrel

29 Sale

44 Porcello

57 Price

61 Poyner

65 Johnson

79 Velazquez

89 ERod

97 Barnes

108 Hembree

119 Walden

129 Kelly

184 Smith

 

Team Leaders in ERA-

70 BOS & HOU

71 NYM

76 CLE

77 MN

81 AZ

...24th NYY at 117

 

Runs scored

103 LAA

89 BOS

87 Pitt

...7th NYY at 77

 

Sox are 3rd in team OPS at .795, while NYY are 7th at .755.

 

We're 23rd in HRs, but nobody seems to care about that anymore.

 

 

I would love to see Swihart get little more playing time this year behind the plate. Who is that kid at the top of OPS?

[oldtimer]

Sox OPS leaders

 

1.238 Lin (14 PAs)

1.111 XB

1.059 Betts

.955 HRam

.844 Swihart (10 PAs)

.829 Beni

.824 JMart

.814 Nunez

.811 Moreland (30 PAs)

.721 Devers

.552 JBJ

.510 Holt (29 PAs)

.512 Vaz

.333 Leon (18 PAs)

 

We have 7 guys with 9 or more rbi:

15 HRam

13 JMart

10 Betts & Devers

9 XB & Beni

(61 MLB players have 9 or more rbis- we have 7 of them! BTW, AGon has 9 rbi.)

 

 

14 by all the rest combined (Nunez with 6)

 

WHIP

0.76 Porcello

0.86 Kimbrel

0.95 Sale

1.00 Price & Hembree

1.20 Kelly

1.24 Velazquez

1.29 Poyner

1.30 Johnson

1.33 Walden

1.35 Barnes

1.49 ERod

2.14 Smith

 

ERA-

0 Kimbrel

29 Sale

44 Porcello

57 Price

61 Poyner

65 Johnson

79 Velazquez

89 ERod

97 Barnes

108 Hembree

119 Walden

129 Kelly

184 Smith

 

Team Leaders in ERA-

70 BOS & HOU

71 NYM

76 CLE

77 MN

81 AZ

...24th NYY at 117

 

Runs scored

103 LAA

89 BOS

87 Pitt

...7th NYY at 77

 

Sox are 3rd in team OPS at .795, while NYY are 7th at .755.

 

We're 23rd in HRs, but nobody seems to care about that anymore.

 

 

Those numbers have been accomplished with our hot hitter Bogaerts out for a week, Betts out for a couple days and with us playing a large number of the games under very cold conditions. A number of balls would have left the park in warmer conditions, so the HR's may look better after the weather warms up. Great start to the season and at least some of it can be attributed to Cora and his approach of getting our hitters to be more aggressive and perhaps part attributable to recovery from injury. Great start to the season.

[moonslav59]

I would love to see Swihart get little more playing time this year behind the plate. Who is that kid at the top of OPS?

 

Makes you wonder, if Lin is some sort of superman.

 

.802 career MLB OPS in 80 PAs.

 

.627 AAA (162 PAs)

 

.635 AA (789 PAs)

 

Of course, the small sample size explains it, but he looks like he has a nice swing.

[sk7326]

Sox OPS leaders

 

1.238 Lin (14 PAs)

1.111 XB

1.059 Betts

.955 HRam

.844 Swihart (10 PAs)

.829 Beni

.824 JMart

.814 Nunez

.811 Moreland (30 PAs)

.721 Devers

.552 JBJ

.510 Holt (29 PAs)

.512 Vaz

.333 Leon (18 PAs)

 

We have 7 guys with 9 or more rbi:

15 HRam

13 JMart

10 Betts & Devers

9 XB & Beni

(61 MLB players have 9 or more rbis- we have 7 of them! BTW, AGon has 9 rbi.)

 

 

14 by all the rest combined (Nunez with 6)

 

WHIP

0.76 Porcello

0.86 Kimbrel

0.95 Sale

1.00 Price & Hembree

1.20 Kelly

1.24 Velazquez

1.29 Poyner

1.30 Johnson

1.33 Walden

1.35 Barnes

1.49 ERod

2.14 Smith

 

ERA-

0 Kimbrel

29 Sale

44 Porcello

57 Price

61 Poyner

65 Johnson

79 Velazquez

89 ERod

97 Barnes

108 Hembree

119 Walden

129 Kelly

184 Smith

 

Team Leaders in ERA-

70 BOS & HOU

71 NYM

76 CLE

77 MN

81 AZ

...24th NYY at 117

 

Runs scored

103 LAA

89 BOS

87 Pitt

...7th NYY at 77

 

Sox are 3rd in team OPS at .795, while NYY are 7th at .755.

 

We're 23rd in HRs, but nobody seems to care about that anymore.

 

 

Right now their 22.9% line drive rate would have been 2nd in the majors over a full season last year. It does seem they are hitting the ball harder. Ultimately this is all sample size and some close game luck. But it's still cool - and it's money in the bank.

[Slasher9]

Lin = Balco

[Kimmi]

Makes you wonder, if Lin is some sort of superman.

 

.802 career MLB OPS in 80 PAs.

 

.627 AAA (162 PAs)

 

.635 AA (789 PAs)

 

Of course, the small sample size explains it, but he looks like he has a nice swing.

 

Maybe with Lin, his improvement is for real?

 

Red Sox Stats

‏ @redsoxstats

23m23 minutes ago

 

Tzu-Wei Lin started hitting the ball in the air last year and became a legit prospect. Air 2015-18: 39%, 39%, 52%, 11 of 14 (79%)

 

19 of his 50 statcast batted balls the last 2 years have been hit 95+ mph. Same as Betts and Moreland, better than Benintendi, Bogaerts, etc.

[oldtimer]

I wonder what our starting lineup will be against Otani? I hope Betts and Nunez will be available and Vaz will catch. My guess is we will start:

 

Betts

Beni

Hanley

JDM

Devers

Nunez

Vaz

Lin

JBJ

 

With Otani throwing 100 mph and also with a nasty breaking pitch it will challenge our guys. Look forward to the match, but being on the west coast, it probably won't be televised even though it is the most interesting game with the two American League teams with the best records.

[Maxbialystock]

I wonder what our starting lineup will be against Otani? I hope Betts and Nunez will be available and Vaz will catch. My guess is we will start:

 

Betts

Beni

Hanley

JDM

Devers

Nunez

Vaz

Lin

JBJ

 

With Otani throwing 100 mph and also with a nasty breaking pitch it will challenge our guys. Look forward to the match, but being on the west coast, it probably won't be televised even though it is the most interesting game with the two American League teams with the best records.

 

Agree: pretty tough combo, which is exactly what has made Kimbrel so effective. Not a bad lineup. The mlb channel will carry one of two games--depending on what market you are closest to--tomorrow night late. One is us at LA, and the other is Houston at Seattle.

[Spudboy]

Maybe with Lin, his improvement is for real?

 

Red Sox Stats

‏ @redsoxstats

23m23 minutes ago

 

Tzu-Wei Lin started hitting the ball in the air last year and became a legit prospect. Air 2015-18: 39%, 39%, 52%, 11 of 14 (79%)

 

19 of his 50 statcast batted balls the last 2 years have been hit 95+ mph. Same as Betts and Moreland, better than Benintendi, Bogaerts, etc.

 

Oh yes. Lets forget that he batted .118 in hist last 10 games of MLB in 2017.

 

I get that many here hate Holt and are just overjoyed that Lin has come up and immediately hit well. It all fits so well with the euphoria of a 13-2 start.

 

I hope that the kid continues to do well but I am not convinced that he has a MLB bat. Not yet, anyway.

[moonslav59]

Team records vs Sox and vs rest of the league:

 

Miami vs BOS 0-2

Miami vs rest 4-9

 

TBR vs BOS 1-6

TBR vs rest 2-6

 

BAL vs BOS 0-3

BAL vs rest 5-8

 

NYY vs BOS 1-2

NYY vs rest 6-5

[Maxbialystock]

Team records vs Sox and vs rest of the league:

 

Miami vs BOS 0-2

Miami vs rest 4-9

 

TBR vs BOS 1-6

TBR vs rest 2-6

 

BAL vs BOS 0-3

BAL vs rest 5-8

 

NYY vs BOS 1-2

NYY vs rest 6-5

 

Nicely done.

[moonslav59]

Nicely done.

 

.378 winning % vs everyone else.

.133 winning % vs Sox

[moonslav59]

Best records in MLB, so far....

 

.867 BOS 13-2

.857 NYM 12-2

.812 LAA 13-3

 

.733 AZ 11-4

.733 PIT 11-4

 

.643 PHI 9-5

.643 TOR 9-5

.636 MN 7-4

.625 HOU 10-6

.615 SEA 8-5

 

T15th - 17th NYY at .500 and 7-7

[S5Dewey]

I see there are three teams over .800 and five teams over .725. Is this unusual at the beginning of the season, or do I just not usually pay close attention to other divisions this early in the year?

[oldtimer]

Oh yes. Lets forget that he batted .118 in hist last 10 games of MLB in 2017.

 

I get that many here hate Holt and are just overjoyed that Lin has come up and immediately hit well. It all fits so well with the euphoria of a 13-2 start.

 

I hope that the kid continues to do well but I am not convinced that he has a MLB bat. Not yet, anyway.

 

And Holt does.

[Hitch]

Best records in MLB, so far....

 

.867 BOS 13-2

.857 NYM 12-2

.812 LAA 13-3

 

.733 AZ 11-4

.733 PIT 11-4

 

.643 PHI 9-5

.643 TOR 9-5

.636 MN 7-4

.625 HOU 10-6

.615 SEA 8-5

 

T15th - 17th NYY at .500 and 7-7

 

Yanks are 8-7, no?

[moonslav59]

Yanks are 8-7, no?

 

I guess Baseball Reference has been slow to update.

[Maxbialystock]

And Holt does.

 

Holt's career OPS is .687. It was over .700 in 2014, 2015, and 2016 and .548 last year in 64 games and 140 at bats. This year it's .518 in 9 games and 24 at bats. His WAR this year is -.4.