A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

I'll be thrilled with 100 wins, but we're off to a great start.

 

To reach 100, we'd have to go 91-61... a 60% winning pct.

 

Clever. It took me a moment to get it. 60% for a whole season translates to 97 wins, which the Sox have done just twice in the John Henry era.

 

We all know it's a long season and realize that 9-1, while great in itself, doesn't guarantee a great season.

 

Thus your "realistic view" thread is a chance to look at how and why we won those 9 games and to decipher how predictive they are.

 

You have commented on HanRam and others, but to me the most amazing aspect of those 10 games is the pitching and especially the rotation. Even ERod's 3 runs in 3.2 innings (and over 90 pitches) wasn't terrible. And the other 9 starts, including game 1 which we lost, were fantastic--at least, to me. After 10 games we have the 3d best ERA, 2.53, in MLB. When was the last time we did that in the regular season? I'm pretty sure we did that in the 2013 postseason, but usually our pitching lags well behind our hitting.

Edited April 11, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Some pitching splits of note:

 

OPS Against

.641 Home

.569 Away

 

.569 vs RHBs

.658 vs LHBs

 

.565 vs SP'ers

.652 vs RP'ers

 

Speaking of SP'ers....

 

1-0 0.00 Price (14 IP)

1-0 1.06 Sale (17 IP)

1-0 1.50 BJo (6 IP)

1-0 1.59 Velaz (5.2 IP)

2-0 2.84 Porc (12.2 IP)

0-0 7.36 ERod (3.2 IP)

 

Team: 6-0 1.68 (1.034 WHIP)

9.3 K/9

5.08 K/BB

.222 BA against (RP'ers are at .206! But, they have walked too many with 21 in 37 IP.)

 

[moonslav59]

Clever. It took me a moment to get it. 60% for a whole season translates to 97 wins, which the Sox have done just twice in the John Henry era.

 

We all know it's a long season and realize that 9-1, while great in itself, doesn't guarantee a great season.

 

Thus your "realistic view" thread is a chance to look at how and why we won those 9 games and to decipher how predictive they are.

 

You have commented on HanRam and others, but to me the most amazing aspect of those 10 games is the pitching and especially the rotation. Even ERod's 3 runs in 3.2 innings (and over 90 pitches) wasn't terrible. And the other 9 starts, including game 1 which we lost, were fantastic--at least, to me. After 10 games we have the 3d best ERA, 2.53, in MLB. When was the last time we did that in the regular season? I'm pretty sure we did that in the 2013 postseason, but usually our pitching lags well behind our hitting.

 

It kind of shows how small a sample size 10 games is, when after going 9-1, we still have to play 60% ball to reach 100 wins.

 

We have to play .566 the rest of the way to end up at 95 wins. (Our winning % last year was .574).

 

To win 96 games we basically have to equal last year's winning % the rest of the way (.572).

[moonslav59]

Although Hosmer is hitting .854 with the Padres, he's on pace for (160 gms)...

 

0 HRs

 

27 RBIs

 

195 Ks

 

How about Duda?

.699 OPS but he's on pace for...(140 gms)

40 HRs

140 RBIs

160 Ks

 

Moustakas (on pace for 153 games)

.925

34 HRs

129 RBIs

102 Ks

 

LoMo (on pace for 152 games)

.278

0 HRs

38 RBIs

 

Santana (160 gms)

.667

32 HRs

108 RBIs

 

HRam (on pace for 146 games)

.883

16 HRs

176 RBIs

 

[notin]

HanRam is also on pace the play against the Rays and Marlins 128 times....

[kenmeister]

I think this is the most talented Sox team I've seen since 2013, and depending upon how things shake out with regards to the bottom of the rotation and lineup, it could surpass them. Getting Bogaerts and Pomeranz back will help. Getting JBJ hitting will ensure it.

[S5Dewey]

Look, I like this team but let's not lose sight of the fact that we've played two of the supposedly weakest teams in baseball to get 8 of those wins.

 

I know I probably have posted this before because it's one of my personal favorites, but....

 

"Let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet". There's still a long season ahead.

[a700hitter]

Look, I like this team but let's not lose sight of the fact that we've played two of the supposedly weakest teams in baseball to get 8 of those wins.

 

I know I probably have posted this before because it's one of my personal favorites, but....

 

"Let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet". There's still a long season ahead.

Last night was an impressive win.

[kenmeister]

Look, I like this team but let's not lose sight of the fact that we've played two of the supposedly weakest teams in baseball to get 8 of those wins.

 

I know I probably have posted this before because it's one of my personal favorites, but....

 

"Let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet". There's still a long season ahead.

 

In all fairness, I was saying they look awesome prior to the start of the season. Same team brought back that won 93 games two seasons in a row, but improved with a healthy Price and JD Martinez.

[notin]

"Let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet".

 

Harvey Keitel, Pulp Fiction

[moonslav59]

hanram is also on pace the play against the rays and marlins 128 times....

 

lol!

[S5Dewey]

Harvey Keitel, Pulp Fiction

 

One of my all time favorite movies.

[mvp 78]

The Sox have gone 9-1, but let me tell you why you shouldn't be excited about it...

 

- some real jerkfaces

[cp176]

The Sox have gone 9-1, but let me tell you why you shouldn't be excited about it...

 

- some real jerkfaces

 

lol - We should be 10 and 0 right. That should be reason enough to bitch and moan a little right there.

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/984149097367130112

 

Video of Blake playing 2b.

[S5Dewey]

My bad. We're on our way to 150-12 and we should be very excited about that.

 

Sometimes it's hard to tell the jerkfaces from the good guys.

[cp176]

Hey come on everybody - Rest day for Beni I guess and guess who is in left field? I bet you guessed.

[S5Dewey]

Hey come on everybody - Rest day for Beni I guess and guess who is in left field? I bet you guessed.

 

Well, the good news is that JBJ is still in CF so only one position has been weakened, unlike the day JBJ had a rest and Beni was moved to CF to accommodate JDM.

[moonslav59]

Hey come on everybody - Rest day for Beni I guess and guess who is in left field? I bet you guessed.

 

Beni finally looked like he was getting in stride last might, then we choose to sit him.

 

Hmmm....

[a700hitter]

Beni finally looked like he was getting in stride last might, then we choose to sit him.

 

Hmmm....

That's what the data says to do.

[Kimmi]

Beni finally looked like he was getting in stride last might, then we choose to sit him.

 

Hmmm....

 

Cora said that he has his players off days mapped out like 4 games in advance. This was Beni's off day and Cora isn't deviating from his plan, for now. Maybe later in the season.

[Jasonbay44]

The team literally just had three off days and is already starting two backups due to injuries..

[harmony]

The team literally just had three off days and is already starting two backups due to injuries..

Could be worse.

 

On Wednesday the Seattle Mariners started four backups due to injuries* despite four off-days already this season.

 

* Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino, Ryon Healy and Ben Gamel are out with injuries

[Jasonbay44]

Could be worse.

 

On Wednesday the Seattle Mariners started four backups due to injuries* despite four off-days already this season.

 

* Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino, Ryon Healy and Ben Gamel are out with injuries

Yeah, but Benintendi was benched when healthy, at least the Mariners players were injured.

[moonslav59]

Cora said that he has his players off days mapped out like 4 games in advance. This was Beni's off day and Cora isn't deviating from his plan, for now. Maybe later in the season.

 

I have to say, I disagree with such a plan. I can see, if a player is looking tired, yes. I get the theory of resting guys BEFORE they look tired, but Beni is young, we've already had several days off, we're playing the damn Yankees, and Beni was just showing signs of finding the groove.

 

Not PH'ing Swihart (or maybe even Beni) and going with Leon was sad.

 

Again, I'm not pretending to know more than Cora or DD. I still love the Cora signing. I think there's much more positive with Cora than these few negative things I disagree with, but I think sitting Beni was a mistake. PH'ing Leon over Swihart was another.

[oldtimer]

I have to say, I disagree with such a plan. I can see, if a player is looking tired, yes. I get the theory of resting guys BEFORE they look tired, but Beni is young, we've already had several days off, we're playing the damn Yankees, and Beni was just showing signs of finding the groove.

 

Not PH'ing Swihart (or maybe even Beni) and going with Leon was sad.

 

Again, I'm not pretending to know more than Cora or DD. I still love the Cora signing. I think there's much more positive with Cora than these few negative things I disagree with, but I think sitting Beni was a mistake. PH'ing Leon over Swihart was another.

 

Certainly a different approach from what I would expect. The real problem last night was pitching though.

[Emp9]

I have to say, I disagree with such a plan. I can see, if a player is looking tired, yes. I get the theory of resting guys BEFORE they look tired, but Beni is young, we've already had several days off, we're playing the damn Yankees, and Beni was just showing signs of finding the groove.

 

Not PH'ing Swihart (or maybe even Beni) and going with Leon was sad.

 

Again, I'm not pretending to know more than Cora or DD. I still love the Cora signing. I think there's much more positive with Cora than these few negative things I disagree with, but I think sitting Beni was a mistake. PH'ing Leon over Swihart was another.

 

Agreed. I was incredulous when Leon stepped to the plate with Beni and Swihart available.

[Bellhorn04]

Not PH'ing Swihart (or maybe even Beni) and going with Leon was sad.

 

Strange that you would say that, especially since you're always looking at L/R splits and with all your comments about how much Beni has struggled against lefties.

 

Career OPS vs. LHP:

 

Leon 733

Swihart 659

Beni 566

[mvp 78]

Strange that you would say that, especially since you're always looking at L/R splits and with all your comments about how much Beni has struggled against lefties.

 

Career OPS vs. LHP:

 

Leon 733

Swihart 659

Beni 566

 

This post is ruthless.

[moonslav59]

Certainly a different approach from what I would expect. The real problem last night was pitching though.

 

If you are going to "plan 4-5 days ahead" on giving guys a day of rest, why plan on giving Beni a day off vs a RHP (Tanaka)?

 

Plan on giving him a day off vs a lefty!