Red Sox To Sign J.D. Martinez

[fxkatt]

One thing we needn't concern ourselves with this season is JD's embitterment at being low-balled. He's got the best to two worlds: 25 mill for two years here, and then a chance for even more. The only loser, if any, could be the Sox and that's only if somehow he loses it in his second year and for the rest of his playing years, and decided to stay and collect 20 mill per. But the latter is very unlikely since he'll be playing for keeps in that 2nd year.

[Hitch]

I really feel DD has played this off-season to perfection. He's brought in Moreland to keep down Hanley's at bats. Brought back a lightening rod of a player for us last year, for next to nothing. And brought in the power we needed for a much lower price than expected.

 

All this while not losing a single prospect or needing to trade one of our starters.

 

And in an atmosphere of people losing those minds over perceived inaction.

 

Great off season so far.

[vjcsmoke]

The Red Sox finally got their man! I'm ok with the opt out clause. After 2 years, the market will be different, new players will become available, and even farm prospects might become legit big league options.

All in all, not too shabby 5 years 110 for an aav of 22m. And JD gets paid more richly up front. Win-Win for both sides.

 

I'm satisfied with the look of the Red Sox offense for 2018.

 

Now what do we do about our relief situation?

[moonslav59]

I don’t see Pedroia playing more than 5 games a week, so Nunez, Bradley, Beny, and Devers sit once or twice a week. The crunch is made worse by the fact that we need to find playing time for 11 full time players. I don’t think that either Moreland or Hanley will take well to a strict platoon.

 

The worst part about the 11 in need of playing time is that 2 basically play only 1B/DH (Moreland & HRam) and JD should only DH to maximize his PAs and minimize his injury chances. HRam & Moreland might be the two guys I'd rather have Nunez, Beni and JBJ play instead of.

 

Of course, Vaz is likely the worst bat of the 11, but who is 10th?

 

It's probably best to look at the splits and think about platoons or pseudo platoons.

 

Career numbers by Sox players (2015-2017 in parenthesis):

 

vs RHPs

 

.838 Beni

.838 (.767) HRam

.836 (.920) JDM

.833 (.836) Betts

.792 (.787) Pedroia

.779 (.782) Moreland

.747 (.790) Nunez

.743 Devers (only 183 PAs)

.736 (.808) JBJ

.726 (.754) Bogey

 

1) Devers should not be platooned, and his 2017 reverse splits were probably a fluke.

 

2) Bogey should be moved down in the order vs RHPs and rest only vs RHPs.

 

3) HRam has been worse than Moreland vs RHPs since 2015, but it's close, so we could see HRam vs LH'd starters and some RH'd starters- enough to be close to a 50-50 split with Moreland, but since HRam can DH when JDM plays the OF, they should both get over 400 PAs.

 

vs LHPs:

1.074 Devers(57 PAs)

.921 (1.021) JDM

.897 (.843) HRam

.859 (.862) Betts

.850 (.847) Pedroia

.826 (.853) Bogey

.723 (.754) JBJ

.710 (.732) Nunez

.625 (.716) Moreland

.583 Beni(needs to be watched closely)

 

1) I do not want Beni to platoon. He's too young to not give a chance with LHPs, but we need to watch closely and act accordingly, if necessary.

 

2) Moreland should never start vs LHPs.

 

3) Nunez should siut vs LHPs.

 

4) JBJ should only rest vs LHP and maybe could sit more than just when needing rest.

 

So, vs RHPs, I'd rest players this often:

 

(Assuming we face 5 RH'd starters and 2 LH'd starters per week)

HRam 2 of 7 days (vs RHPs)

Nunez 2 of 7 (v L or R)

Bogey 1 of 7 (v R)

Moreland 2 of 7 (v L)

[moonslav59]

I really feel DD has played this off-season to perfection. He's brought in Moreland to keep down Hanley's at bats. Brought back a lightening rod of a player for us last year, for next to nothing. And brought in the power we needed for a much lower price than expected.

 

All this while not losing a single prospect or needing to trade one of our starters.

 

And in an atmosphere of people losing those minds over perceived inaction.

 

Great off season so far.

 

Just a week ago, DD was getting roasted.

 

Now look.

[Nick]

You were right on Middlebrooks

 

Crazy: No homegrown Sox starter (except Clay and Jon) has logged more than 450 career innings since 2006.

 

That's pretty unbelievable. Epitome of development failure.

[bosoxmal]

It was probably a lock all along.

 

All the rest was just rigmarole.

 

And conversation.

[cp176]

The worst part about the 11 in need of playing time is that 2 basically play only 1B/DH (Moreland & HRam) and JD should only DH to maximize his PAs and minimize his injury chances. HRam & Moreland might be the two guys I'd rather have Nunez, Beni and JBJ play instead of.

 

Of course, Vaz is likely the worst bat of the 11, but who is 10th?

 

It's probably best to look at the splits and think about platoons or pseudo platoons.

 

Career numbers by Sox players (2015-2017 in parenthesis):

 

vs RHPs

 

.838 Beni

.838 (.767) HRam

.836 (.920) JDM

.833 (.836) Betts

.792 (.787) Pedroia

.779 (.782) Moreland

.747 (.790) Nunez

.743 Devers (only 183 PAs)

.736 (.808) JBJ

.726 (.754) Bogey

 

1) Devers should not be platooned, and his 2017 reverse splits were probably a fluke.

 

2) Bogey should be moved down in the order vs RHPs and rest only vs RHPs.

 

3) HRam has been worse than Moreland vs RHPs since 2015, but it's close, so we could see HRam vs LH'd starters and some RH'd starters- enough to be close to a 50-50 split with Moreland, but since HRam can DH when JDM plays the OF, they should both get over 400 PAs.

 

vs LHPs:

1.074 Devers(57 PAs)

.921 (1.021) JDM

.897 (.843) HRam

.859 (.862) Betts

.850 (.847) Pedroia

.826 (.853) Bogey

.723 (.754) JBJ

.710 (.732) Nunez

.625 (.716) Moreland

.583 Beni(needs to be watched closely)

 

1) I do not want Beni to platoon. He's too young to not give a chance with LHPs, but we need to watch closely and act accordingly, if necessary.

 

2) Moreland should never start vs LHPs.

 

3) Nunez should siut vs LHPs.

 

4) JBJ should only rest vs LHP and maybe could sit more than just when needing rest.

 

So, vs RHPs, I'd rest players this often:

 

(Assuming we face 5 RH'd starters and 2 LH'd starters per week)

HRam 2 of 7 days (vs RHPs)

Nunez 2 of 7 (v L or R)

Bogey 1 of 7 (v R)

Moreland 2 of 7 (v L)

 

I'm thinking that JD will find some time in left field. I'm not of the opinion that he is as bad an outfielder as statistical evidence seems to make him out to be. Hanley's playing time will absolutely be dictated by his health as well how he produces. If he is healthy and hits, he will play. Moreland will still get his at bats. He can field the position and has a little pop in that bat. This is a great problem for Cora to have. Personally, now it makes no difference to me where Betts bats in our lineup but I would really like to see Martinez, Ramirez, and Devers lined right up. This potential lineup has got to look devastating to any opponent. Particularly when you consider what our pitching staff could also look like. Jacksonian whatever was absolutely right. My dreams for this team have come true and I am all aboard this train. Now that some of the pressure to produce bigly at the plate has been eliminated, some of these guys that some here feel grossly under achieved last year may very well surprise us all.

[Kimmi]

So we are all happy that JD was signed for much less than was being talked about. 5/110 is easier to swallow than 5/25, 6/150 or even worse.

 

Yeah the front loaded deal with two opt outs seems preferable.

 

But what happens if he is injured or does not perform to expectations and he does not choose to opt out? Does everyone think the last 3 years at $60. mil will be such a great deal then?

 

He will be 31 this season. He will be 33 and 34 in the opt out years. If he is not getting it done years 34, 35, and 36 will be more of the same dead money s*** we have now with Fatboy and Hanley.

 

I am not a fan of long term contracts, but as long term contracts go, this one is bearable for me. You are absolutely right that if JD does not hit, we could have more dead money on our hands. There's definitely that risk, which is why long term contracts should not become the norm.

 

I still prefer the Mitch Moreland type signings, but I'm very happy that we have JD.

[Kimmi]

A Moreland-Ramirez platoon could be one of the most productive 1B positions in the league ... Moreland has never hit lefties. You might give Ramirez more at-bats than a simple L/R platoon.

 

Now I could see Holt not starting the season to give some flexibility early.

 

This was the plan initially when Moreland was signed, then Ramirez' injury kept him from being able to play in the field. If Hanley is healthy, I agree that we could see a lot of production from a 1B platoon.

[Kimmi]

I'm taking Cora's word for it ...

 

Betts RF

Beni LF

Nunez 2B (didn't he have the highest OPS last year?)

JD DH

Devers 3B

Xander SS

Mitch 1B

Vaz C

JBJ CF

 

I think the line up looks pretty good no matter how you slice it up.

[Kimmi]

One thing we needn't concern ourselves with this season is JD's embitterment at being low-balled. He's got the best to two worlds: 25 mill for two years here, and then a chance for even more. The only loser, if any, could be the Sox and that's only if somehow he loses it in his second year and for the rest of his playing years, and decided to stay and collect 20 mill per. But the latter is very unlikely since he'll be playing for keeps in that 2nd year.

 

I agree. I think the front load and the 2 opt outs should make JD feel like he got a good deal. He should not feel like he was disrespected in any way regarding his contract.

[Kimmi]

I really feel DD has played this off-season to perfection. He's brought in Moreland to keep down Hanley's at bats. Brought back a lightening rod of a player for us last year, for next to nothing. And brought in the power we needed for a much lower price than expected.

 

All this while not losing a single prospect or needing to trade one of our starters.

 

And in an atmosphere of people losing those minds over perceived inaction.

 

Great off season so far.

 

I have been a tough critic of Dombrowski, but I have to agree that he did a very nice job this offseason.

[Kimmi]

I'm thinking that JD will find some time in left field. I'm not of the opinion that he is as bad an outfielder as statistical evidence seems to make him out to be. Hanley's playing time will absolutely be dictated by his health as well how he produces. If he is healthy and hits, he will play. Moreland will still get his at bats. He can field the position and has a little pop in that bat. This is a great problem for Cora to have. Personally, now it makes no difference to me where Betts bats in our lineup but I would really like to see Martinez, Ramirez, and Devers lined right up. This potential lineup has got to look devastating to any opponent. Particularly when you consider what our pitching staff could also look like. Jacksonian whatever was absolutely right. My dreams for this team have come true and I am all aboard this train. Now that some of the pressure to produce bigly at the plate has been eliminated, some of these guys that some here feel grossly under achieved last year may very well surprise us all.

 

I think there are enough at bats to go around and keep everyone well rested. Moreland was not supposed to be an everyday player when he was signed. I think he will be okay with a lesser role than what he had last year. JD will become our 4th outfielder along with being our primary DH.

 

Cora will figure it out.

[moonslav59]

That's pretty unbelievable. Epitome of development failure.

 

Makes one wonder, if we are the only MLB team like this.

 

BTW, great point, but here are other SP'ers from the Sox system that had 450+ IP after 2006 (maybe he meant logged 450+ with the Sox):

 

Anibal Sanchez 1593 IP after 20016

 

Derek Lowe (1319 IP)

 

Jorge de la Rosa (1311 IP)

 

Justin Masterson (1083)

 

Carl Pavano (751 IP)

 

There may be more.

 

 

[MADSTORK]

I have been a tough critic of Dombrowski, but I have to agree that he did a very nice job this offseason.

 

Define very nice job?

 

Starting Rotation is a huge question mark after Sale. Bullpen is very questionable with 2 Pitchers returning from Injury and the Three Stooges (Kelly Barnes Hembree) still on the roster.

 

Best of seven series vs the yanks and your throwing 3 left handed starters at the moment vs murderers row...

 

Still much work to be done by way of trade (Ramirez) to lower payroll and possibly go after Cobb or Arrieta to offset the left handed dominate rotation.

 

I believe it will take until after the trade deadline to see how well of a job DD has done this season...

[moonslav59]

Define very nice job?

 

Starting Rotation is a huge question mark after Sale. Bullpen is very questionable with 2 Pitchers returning from Injury and the Three Stooges (Kelly Barnes Hembree) still on the roster.

 

Best of seven series vs the yanks and your throwing 3 left handed starters at the moment vs murderers row...

 

Still much work to be done by way of trade (Ramirez) to lower payroll and possibly go after Cobb or Arrieta to offset the left handed dominate rotation.

 

I believe it will take until after the trade deadline to see how well of a job DD has done this season...

 

How is Price a concern but not Sonny Gray? Or, other Yankee DL wonders?

 

Our pen turned into a strength last year, and now we have Smith and Thornburg returning and Workman & Maddox all year.

 

Kelly & Barnes are not bad and will now be our 4-7 RP'ers instead of 2-3.

[fxkatt]

There are starting pitcher question marks on both the Yanks and the Sox. Pitching, whether starting or relief, always tends to be questionable. But I think we may have a starting pitcher edge, and possibly an edge in the bull pen too (tho that Robertson addition is potent) But we cannot match their murderer's row which goes on and on whereas ours stops almost as quickly as it starts (at least judging from last year's offense)

[cp176]

There are starting pitcher question marks on both the Yanks and the Sox. Pitching, whether starting or relief, always tends to be questionable. But I think we may have a starting pitcher edge, and possibly an edge in the bull pen too (tho that Robertson addition is potent) But we cannot match their murderer's row which goes on and on whereas ours stops almost as quickly as it starts (at least judging from last year's offense)

 

It a new year! I would not want to have to pitch to this new and improved Red Sox lineup and our starting pitching could very well wind up being the best in the league.

[Nick]

Define very nice job?

 

Starting Rotation is a huge question mark after Sale. Bullpen is very questionable with 2 Pitchers returning from Injury and the Three Stooges (Kelly Barnes Hembree) still on the roster.

 

Best of seven series vs the yanks and your throwing 3 left handed starters at the moment vs murderers row...

 

Still much work to be done by way of trade (Ramirez) to lower payroll and possibly go after Cobb or Arrieta to offset the left handed dominate rotation.

 

I believe it will take until after the trade deadline to see how well of a job DD has done this season...

 

What would you propose to do with our lefthanders? Trade Price, Sale, Pom or E Rod? Just so you can have a balance?

[harmony]

It a new year! I would not want to have to pitch to this new and improved Red Sox lineup and our starting pitching could very well wind up being the best in the league.

Deja vu.

 

http://insider.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=9159

 

Just kiddin'

[Natick to NC]

Sonny gray is a 50 50 DL waiting to happen and if they are counting on CC to replicate what he did last year .......not happening ...The rotation goes to Boston and I don't think it's that close but the pen is a push all depends how thorny holds up ...to me Thorny is a key to a special year for this team .The Redsox will scare the living crap out of everyone this year and that includes the Yankees ....Get out to a fast start and never look back .

[notin]

There are starting pitcher question marks on both the Yanks and the Sox. Pitching, whether starting or relief, always tends to be questionable. But I think we may have a starting pitcher edge, and possibly an edge in the bull pen too (tho that Robertson addition is potent) But we cannot match their murderer's row which goes on and on whereas ours stops almost as quickly as it starts (at least judging from last year's offense)

 

I think the Yankees have an advantage in the bullpen, but the Sox front five is far better than theirs. Mostly because I lack faith in Sonny Gray.

 

Their lineup is scarier, but don't underestimate Boston. While they were a distant 15th out of 15 in home runs in the AL last year, they were still sixth in runs scored. Add in a legitimate 35 home run bat, and this offense did get much better overall...

[notin]

What would you propose to do with our lefthanders? Trade Price, Sale, Pom or E Rod? Just so you can have a balance?

 

Does it really matter that Chris Sale is left-handed? Right-handed hitters, even the best ones, don't likely think they'll have it easier....

[Natick to NC]

I want home field throughout the playoffs period ..hammer down

[harmony]

Sonny gray is a 50 50 DL waiting to happen and if they are counting on CC to replicate what he did last year .......not happening ...The rotation goes to Boston and I don't think it's that close but the pen is a push all depends how thorny holds up ...to me Thorny is a key to a special year for this team .The Redsox will scare the living crap out of everyone this year and that includes the Yankees ....Get out to a fast start and never look back .

FanGraphs projects 2018 starting pitching WAR of 16.4 for the Yankees and 15.9 for the Red Sox:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=9#SP

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#SP

 

With Yankees holding a healthy 7.4-to-3.9 edge in relief pitching WAR.

 

The Red Sox and Yankees are projected with a hitting WAR of 28.0 and 27.1, respectively.

[Spudboy]

Sonny gray is a 50 50 DL waiting to happen and if they are counting on CC to replicate what he did last year .......not happening ...The rotation goes to Boston and I don't think it's that close but the pen is a push all depends how thorny holds up ...to me Thorny is a key to a special year for this team .The Redsox will scare the living crap out of everyone this year and that includes the Yankees ....Get out to a fast start and never look back .

 

I give you one "A" for enthusiasm.

[Spudboy]

I want home field throughout the playoffs period ..hammer down

 

104 wins minimum.

 

Get 'er done.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sonny gray is a 50 50 DL waiting to happen and if they are counting on CC to replicate what he did last year .......not happening ...The rotation goes to Boston and I don't think it's that close but the pen is a push all depends how thorny holds up ...to me Thorny is a key to a special year for this team .The Redsox will scare the living crap out of everyone this year and that includes the Yankees ....Get out to a fast start and never look back .

 

YES SOME GOOD SOX-YANKEE BANTER! The f***ing thaw has occurred.

 

The sox have the rotation? Really? You've got a bona fide ace, I'll give you that one. Sale is a true ace. Last year, so was Severino. Clearly, Sale has the better track record, but Severino can hold his own against Sale and doesn't have the mileage on his tread like Sale does. This is advantage Boston, but if Sevy replicates 2017, then it will be more a wash than anything else

 

Your number 2 going into the season has to be Price. Well, Price was on the shelf with a "tear" in his elbow that never got fixed. He looked healthy come playoffs last yr but you haven't seen him stretched out and under workload since 2016, and btw, he was a #3 starter in 2016. Our number 2 starter is Tanaka. His first half was awful last year, his second half was his typical production. He was absolute nails in the playoffs. Both #2's have ace upside. Both have recent arm issues. Both have performance issues of late. Claiming victory here for either side is premature

 

The number 3's are Gray and Pomeranz. Pomeranz had himself a whale of a 2017, for a 5 inning pitcher. He averaged 5.4IP/start. He's been a 3WAR pitcher the last 2 seasons due to his high K rates, but a #3 that hands the ball to the pen in the middle of the 6th on average is a problem. Not to mention, Pomeranz has his injury history as well. Sonny Gray is another former ace who came off an injury plagued 2016 to post very strong numbers in 2017. Both guys had similar WAR's. Gray has proven he can be an ace before. To give anyone an advantage here is premature at best.

 

The number 4's are Sabathia and Porcello. Sabathia showed a resurgent fastball (up 1mph from 2016 and up 2.1mph from 2014) and secondary stuff to post a strong, albeit injury shortened 2017. CC showed in the post season that he can shoulder the load in big games as well. He is an old guy and who knows if he can perform as well as last year. Porcello posted nearly an exact same WAR to Sabathia's from a year ago. Porcello has more durability for sure, but production has been the issue. His HR rate was nearly 1.7 per 9IP and hence his 4.65ERA was actually spot on with his peripherals. While you can count on Porcello taking the bump every time his name is called, you can count on a mediocre to below average performance in doing so. Yes, he won a CY 2 yrs ago, but his CY was sandwiched between 2 pretty rough seasons. Sabathia has at least performed better in the time he has taken the hill. Either way, same WAR, production vs durability. This is a wash

 

The number 5's are Jordan Montgomery and E-Rod. Montgomery was a revelation with NYY last season, carrying over solid production using a mix of good but not spectacular stuff with solid deception and location to post a near 3 WAR in 29 starts. He is very Andy Pettitte like. Girardi also didn't trust him much to get beyond the 5th, so his 5.4IP/start mirrors your #3 above, not due to high pitch counts, but more due to a lack of trust. Either way, a near 3 WAR out of a rookie #5 starter is great. E-Rod posted a 2.1WAR in his 24 starts and if he was healthy, this would be another wash. Since he isn't healthy at this juncture, this looks to be the one square advantage the Yankees have at this point in the 1-5.

 

The only real sox advantage is Sale vs Sevy and that isn't very big. The only Yanks advantage is JMont vs ERod and that is mostly health. But where we make our hay is our depth. We can roll out top prospect after prospect after prospect in the rotation in the event of injury or ineffectiveness. The sox have Brian Johnson, who has proven to be more a AAAA arm and Steven Wright, who has hit more wives than pitching mounds over the last 9 months. In the end, I think this is a far more evenly matched rotation than sox fans care to realize and one that could shift strongly in the Yankees favor should the depths be challenged.

[Emp9]

Wow. Libel much?