Martinez vs Hosmer vs Santana

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It is a terrible move. Moreland is a meh player, and it creates a logjam if we get the big bat that is really needed. If he signs J.D., Bradley probably has to go.

 

I thought this at first too. But, (1) it doesn't make sense to move sideways--improve the lineup (Martinez) while weakening the OF defense (trading Bradley) and I'm sure Dombrowski can figure this out. (2) It doesn't make sense to move sideways while holding on to a guy (Hanley) who has no role on the team beyond 2018 (the Red Sox are not letting the option vest). Hanley's days as a Red Sox are clearly numbered.

 

Hanley played himself into a backup role last season. He is getting older, can't stay healthy, his skills have declined, and he isn't much of a factor at the plate anymore (95 OPS+ last year). He isn't going to be the starting DH as that would likely mean his option would vest and the Red Sox don't want that to happen. The only question for Hanley is: does he stick around this year as a bench player and get a few ABs at first base (when Moreland sits against a lefty) and a few ABs at DH?

[moonslav59]

I thought this at first too. But, (1) it doesn't make sense to move sideways--improve the lineup (Martinez) while weakening the OF defense (trading Bradley) and I'm sure Dombrowski can figure this out. (2) It doesn't make sense to move sideways while holding on to a guy (Hanley) who has no role on the team beyond 2018 (the Red Sox are not letting the option vest). Hanley's days as a Red Sox are clearly numbered.

 

Hanley played himself into a backup role last season. He is getting older, can't stay healthy, his skills have declined, and he isn't much of a factor at the plate anymore (95 OPS+ last year). He isn't going to be the starting DH as that would likely mean his option would vest and the Red Sox don't want that to happen. The only question for Hanley is: does he stick around this year as a bench player and get a few ABs at first base (when Moreland sits against a lefty) and a few ABs at DH?

 

HRam batted 4th and 5th all year. How is that "playing himself into a back-up role last season?"

 

I'm hopeful the surgery helps. Not having to play 1B vs RHPs should help him stay healthier, but that vesting option would have had a better chance of not happening had we made HRam play 1B FT- sink or swim.

 

If we trade HRam to save $5-7M and sign JD, it makes sense. Otherwise, I don't get the reasoning.

[Hitch]

Because while he batted 4th or 5th he batted and performed very poorly. Was that not obvious?

[mvp 78]

It is a terrible move. Moreland is a meh player, and it creates a logjam if we get the big bat that is really needed. If he signs J.D., Bradley probably has to go. J.D. can't DH because that will be the spot for the untradeable Hanley. I would have been in favor of Bradley going if it brought back Abreu, but that isn't going to happen now. i know that you think that our current crew will improve enough without adding a bat. I think you are dead wrong. Even if they improve, they will not improve enough to keep up with the Yankees who just added a huge piece with Stanton. It is a HR hitters game, and we don't have a bopper.

 

There's no log jam. If they sign JD, Hanley is being waived.

[S5Dewey]

HRam batted 4th and 5th all year. How is that "playing himself into a back-up role last season?"

 

I'm hopeful the surgery helps. Not having to play 1B vs RHPs should help him stay healthier, but that vesting option would have had a better chance of not happening had we made HRam play 1B FT- sink or swim.

 

If we trade HRam to save $5-7M and sign JD, it makes sense. Otherwise, I don't get the reasoning.

 

That .250 BA and .750 OPS last year pretty much played him into a backup role. However, I'm willing to be optimistic and say that his shoulder problems were the cause of it and give him a chance at 1B in ST. If he can play the position and post an OPS of ~.850 he'll get enough AB's to vest and that's fine with me. If he can't he can platoon with Moreland and not vest.

 

Your premise that we can trade Hanley and save $5 - $7M after signing JD is (IMO) pretty unrealistic. The only way that happens is if we get someone who's willing to take on all of Hanley's contract and even *I* am not that optimistic!

[mvp 78]

HRam batted 4th and 5th all year. How is that "playing himself into a back-up role last season?"

 

I'm hopeful the surgery helps. Not having to play 1B vs RHPs should help him stay healthier, but that vesting option would have had a better chance of not happening had we made HRam play 1B FT- sink or swim.

 

If we trade HRam to save $5-7M and sign JD, it makes sense. Otherwise, I don't get the reasoning.

 

Batted 4th and 5th all year??? http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS

 

Seems like he definitely played himself into a 7 spot in the order towards the end of the season when he was either 6th or later 10 times after August 28.

[moonslav59]

Batted 4th and 5th all year??? http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS

 

Seems like he definitely played himself into a 7 spot in the order towards the end of the season when he was either 6th or later 10 times after August 28.

 

You're right: once they started batting Devers 5th, HRam was demoted more often than I remember.

 

Here's the season totals by power slots:

4th

43% HRam (This should not happen in 2018)

30% Moreland (Ditto)

11% Betts

11% Beni

4% Others

 

5th

29% Moreland (I hope we don't see anything near this in 2018.)

22% HRam

10% Bradley

10% Young

9% Devers

8% Beni

5% Bogey

8% Others

 

4-5 slots:

65% HRam

59%

 

HRam batted 7th or 8th 5% of the season- mostly near the end.

57% up 4th

28% up 5th

9% up 6th

 

Note: HRam batted 7th in 6 of 7 games near the start of September, but he never batted below 6th after after Sept 3rd, except to PH.

 

 

[fxkatt]

At best, Hanley will bat only against lefties this coming season... some perhaps as DH and some as 1b. This is his best scenario, and given the Yankee moves, it has to be the only one unless we are bypassing this season for next.

 

As to where he hit last season, he often hit 4 or 5 because there was a huge power shortage. The main thing is: he did not hit like a 4 or 5 guy. In fact that 5 position for the Sox has been a critical problem for the Sox for a long long time. No one, it seems, can hold onto that slot, once it is given him. It seems like the 1 and 5 positions are endlessly problematic for the Sox.

[a700hitter]

There's no log jam. If they sign JD, Hanley is being waived.

Do you think that is a possibility? If he goes elsewhere and his option vests, won't we be on the hook for 2 years/$40 million?

[Bellhorn04]

Do you think that is a possibility? If he goes elsewhere and his option vests, won't we be on the hook for 2 years/$40 million?

 

Speier says if Hanley is released the Sox are off the hook for the option.

[Carpin]

Speier says if Hanley is released the Sox are off the hook for the option.

 

If somehow the Sox fall out of the race they should just cut Hanley before the vesting option is activated.

[a700hitter]

Speier says if Hanley is released the Sox are off the hook for the option.

So the Red Sox are only be on the hook for $20 million in 2018. If they sign JD and cut Hanley, that would be great imo. DD has had to eat an awful lot of bad contracts that he inherited— Pablo ($54 million), Hanley ($23 million) and Craig ($12 million)—that’s almost $90 million in parting gifts. That is ridiculous. And we still have Rusney Castillo rotting away in the minors for another 3 years. Edited December 22, 2017 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

At best, Hanley will bat only against lefties this coming season... some perhaps as DH and some as 1b. This is his best scenario, and given the Yankee moves, it has to be the only one unless we are bypassing this season for next.

 

As to where he hit last season, he often hit 4 or 5 because there was a huge power shortage. The main thing is: he did not hit like a 4 or 5 guy. In fact that 5 position for the Sox has been a critical problem for the Sox for a long long time. No one, it seems, can hold onto that slot, once it is given him. It seems like the 1 and 5 positions are endlessly problematic for the Sox.

 

While just about every returning player declined this year, except for Vaz, our 4-5 slots were incredibly awful. In a way, it was predictable. The players we put in those slots were not equipped to handle those roles.

 

4 slot: .240 27 93 (.322 OBP/.745 OPS)

 

5 slot: .219 18 71 (.303 OBP/..667 OPS)

 

(The 6 slot .750 & 7 slot .693 didn't help either.)

 

The 4 slot

316 PA HRam .747

219 PA Moreland .691 (much worse than HRam)

 

The 5 slot

201 PA Moreland .764

157 PA HRam .773

 

In both slots, HRam was better. Yes, Moreland hurt his toe and could be better next year, but HRam's surgery could make a difference as well. I guess I'm just not really all that convinced that giving Moreland the bulk of the platoon PAs at 1B will give us the best results.

 

However, the split numbers to support the platoon idea.

 

Moreland vs RHPs/LHPs

career: .779/.675

2017: .784/.684

 

HRam vs RHPs/LHPs

career: .838/.897

2017: .769/.679

2016: 1.097/.796

 

For those who base most of their positions on the most recent season, HRam was actually better vs RHPs than LHPs and pretty close to Moreland's numbers vs righties.

 

If we sign JD to DH and platoon Moreland and HRam at 1b, I'd be fine with the MM signing. If HRam is doing well next year, he can DH when JD plays in the OF. He still won't get the vest, which is good.

 

[Michigan adam]

I don't release Hanley unless he becomes a big malcontent. I try to get the most I can out of his $20m by "platooning him" at 1B and DH, behind JD and Moreland. There are enough AB's to make that worth while and not too many to let his option vest. Certainly we get more out of hanley's bat then the replacement level fill in we would use. Option 2 is he gets injured, and that is not all bad either...option 3 is a release but I hate to pay people to make other teams better...

[Bellhorn04]

I don't release Hanley unless he becomes a big malcontent. I try to get the most I can out of his $20m by "platooning him" at 1B and DH, behind JD and Moreland. There are enough AB's to make that worth while and not too many to let his option vest. Certainly we get more out of hanley's bat then the replacement level fill in we would use. Option 2 is he gets injured, and that is not all bad either...option 3 is a release but I hate to pay people to make other teams better...

 

Yeah, true, if we release him some other team can pick him up for minimum wage...it'd probably be an AL East team, and we'd be paying Hanley to hit against us about 75 times this year!

[Kimmi]

You can't separate the good moves from the bad moves. Ben and Theo should have put their foot down if they were against the bad moves. Neither have come out after the fact and said "I didn't want to do that." Theo just said he felt had to feed the monster and gave in to it.

 

Sure you can. I do it all the time.

 

There is only so much that you can put your foot down if you are not the boss. In the end, the bosses are going to do what they want to do.

 

Theo went as far as quitting once before because of philosophical differences with Larry. He didn't say "I didn't want to do that" in so many words, but he did state very clearly that there were differences in opinion between building a team to put fans in the seats versus building a team to win.

[Kimmi]

Selling tickets plays into the choice-making.

 

It would be one thing to find out Ben was insisting on signing Scherzer instead of HRam & Pablo. It's another to find out he didn't want to spend big on any FA that winter, but he was told, he had to.

 

Selling tickets should not play into the choice making. Winning for both the short and long terms is what should factor into the decision making. Selling tickets will naturally follow. It's the splashy, ticket selling moves that end up biting the team.

[Kimmi]

When I've looked into it, almost everyone on TS hated or didn't understand the Pablo signing.

 

I didn't like the move, but I understood the rationale behind it.

[Bellhorn04]

Selling tickets should not play into the choice making. Winning for both the short and long terms is what should factor into the decision making. Selling tickets will naturally follow. It's the splashy, ticket selling moves that end up biting the team.

 

With limited exceptions, like signing Manny Ramirez.

[Kimmi]

It is a terrible move. Moreland is a meh player, and it creates a logjam if we get the big bat that is really needed. If he signs J.D., Bradley probably has to go. J.D. can't DH because that will be the spot for the untradeable Hanley. I would have been in favor of Bradley going if it brought back Abreu, but that isn't going to happen now. i know that you think that our current crew will improve enough without adding a bat. I think you are dead wrong. Even if they improve, they will not improve enough to keep up with the Yankees who just added a huge piece with Stanton. It is a HR hitters game, and we don't have a bopper.

 

If Jackie is traded, I think that move would have been done independently of whether Moreland was acquired or not.

 

Moreland was signed for two reasons: to add insurance for Hanley and to increase leverage against Boras. No, Moreland is not a game changer, but neither is Hosmer. Moreland is solid, will likely improve over last year if healthy, and is reasonably priced.

 

I am advocating that Dombrowski improve our team through adding a #2 starter rather than adding a big bat.

[Kimmi]

There's no log jam. If they sign JD, Hanley is being waived.

 

There's no log jam even if Hanley is not waived.

[Kimmi]

I don't release Hanley unless he becomes a big malcontent. I try to get the most I can out of his $20m by "platooning him" at 1B and DH, behind JD and Moreland. There are enough AB's to make that worth while and not too many to let his option vest. Certainly we get more out of hanley's bat then the replacement level fill in we would use. Option 2 is he gets injured, and that is not all bad either...option 3 is a release but I hate to pay people to make other teams better...

 

I agree. I would not release Hanley. If he's healthy, he could be a big bat for us, at least against lefties. There will be enough at bats to go around.

[mvp 78]

There's no log jam even if Hanley is not waived.

 

I agree with this too.

[Hitch]

So the Red Sox are only be on the hook for $20 million in 2018. If they sign JD and cut Hanley, that would be great imo. DD has had to eat an awful lot of bad contracts that he inherited— Pablo ($54 million), Hanley ($23 million) and Craig ($12 million)—that’s almost $90 million in parting gifts. That is ridiculous. And we still have Rusney Castillo rotting away in the minors for another 3 years.

 

There's no reason to cut him yet. Bring in JD, see if Hanley can find some form and earn at least part of his contract. And stop him getting to the vesting option. That's the smart plan ahead. If he plays up or sinks, then cut him.

[moonslav59]

Moreland was signed for two reasons: to add insurance for Hanley and to increase leverage against Boras. No, Moreland is not a game changer, but neither is Hosmer. Moreland is solid, will likely improve over last year if healthy, and is reasonably priced.

 

Other than how Moreland played in the short sample size before his toe injury, I see no further evidence to support a better overall 2018.

 

If we wanted to purchase insurance, I'd have signed Nunez over Moreland. We know Pedey is out and Nunez can back up several other positions as well.

[moonslav59]

There's no reason to cut him yet....

 

Yes, sometimes shoulder surgery actually helps a player get better.

[OH FOY]

Dombrowski is playing it right Martinez, none of the big market teams are after him. They all want to stay under the Luxury Tax for next years, bonanza of Free Agents. Yanks, Dodgers, Cubs, and Giants, don't look in a hurry for him. That only leaves the Sox.

[cp176]

Moreland was signed for two reasons: to add insurance for Hanley and to increase leverage against Boras. No, Moreland is not a game changer, but neither is Hosmer. Moreland is solid, will likely improve over last year if healthy, and is reasonably priced.

 

Other than how Moreland played in the short sample size before his toe injury, I see no further evidence to support a better overall 2018.

 

If we wanted to purchase insurance, I'd have signed Nunez over Moreland. We know Pedey is out and Nunez can back up several other positions as well.

 

Moreland gives me the impression of a guy who is happy to have a great paying job. he is a good first baseman and can hit for some power. Moreland I don't think comes with the tag that he is going to play everyday. If he earns it, he might though. If ramirez comes out healthy and hitting this spring why would anyone want to just release him? Martinez bat added with Ramirez bat (if productive) will give us what we need and still allow us to pursue the pitching that everybody here seems to think that we desperately need. Moreland might or might not play a very important role on this team. Any decisions with the respect to Ramirez, I think should wait until we see what we got.

[Hitch]

Moreland was signed for two reasons: to add insurance for Hanley and to increase leverage against Boras. No, Moreland is not a game changer, but neither is Hosmer. Moreland is solid, will likely improve over last year if healthy, and is reasonably priced.

 

Other than how Moreland played in the short sample size before his toe injury, I see no further evidence to support a better overall 2018.

 

If we wanted to purchase insurance, I'd have signed Nunez over Moreland. We know Pedey is out and Nunez can back up several other positions as well.

 

But we have players who can play 2nd base and several other positions. Nunez wouldn't play 1st.

 

That said if Nunez is healthy I'd love to have him back if we can make the salary work and trade Holt.

[Hitch]

Yes, sometimes shoulder surgery actually helps a player get better.

 

He needs to be kept on a very tight leash, however.