A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox will welcome reliever Tyler Thornburg back to the hill for the first time since he underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. A bullpen session is just one of many steps back, of course, and Thornburg still has some hurdles to clear. He has yet to pitch competitively for the Boston organization (excepting brief spring action last year) since coming over in a trade in advance of the 2017 season.

[notin]

Dombrowski needs to go dumpster diving.

 

If only someone had thought of that every week once a week since November...

[mvp 78]

Pitcher w Leon/ w Swi

 

Miley .738/.756

Porc .934/.766

ERod .377/.662

Wrght .368/.719

 

Buch .627/ n/a

RHill .410/ na

 

Now compare the wide disparities from year to year for Leon working with certain pitchers... Your numbers are just noise.

[notin]

Now compare the wide disparities from year to year for Leon working with certain pitchers... Your numbers are just noise.

 

Tend to agree. Wright's OPSA differed by about 500 points in those two years with Leon...

Edited February 28, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

Now compare the wide disparities from year to year for Leon working with certain pitchers... Your numbers are just noise.

 

Year after year, Leon does better with more pitchers than Vaz or Swihart. I guess you want to chalk it up as luck.

 

Yes, pitchers have up and down years. Yes, it's not always the catcher's fault, if they do badly. Yes, luck and timing plays a role.

 

3 years of similar outcomes are not something to just ignore.

 

I provided the data for 3 years. Call it noise, if you want, but when the seven returning pitchers who had 60+ PAs with both Leon and Vaz all did better with Leon, and 5 or 6 did way better, I'm not DFA'ing Leon, until I see Vaz has improved in this area.

 

Swihart has a long way to go to get even with Vaz, let alone Leon in this area.

 

[moonslav59]

Still hoping for a SP'er signing to a minor league deal.

[devildavid]

I'm with you Moon. Mark me down as a Leon fan.

 

Me three.

[Jack Flap]

Still hoping for a SP'er signing to a minor league deal.

 

Same here. I wish we'd done more for the bullpen, too. If Hanley proves healthy and able to play first base the way he did in 2016, we may find ourselves wishing Moreland's $6.5 million this year had been spent on a reliever or two instead.

[Emp9]

Same here. I wish we'd done more for the bullpen, too. If Hanley proves healthy and able to play first base the way he did in 2016, we may find ourselves wishing Moreland's $6.5 million this year had been spent on a reliever or two instead.

 

I really thought we go w/ HanRam/Travis at 1B and leave room to sign JD. Who knows? Maybe Moreland is a good clubhouse guy and the team really liked him? If he has an injury free season he’s good for 20+ HRs and good defense. If our budget wasn’t so tight, I’d have like the Moreland signing way more than I do presently.

[moonslav59]

I really thought we go w/ HanRam/Travis at 1B and leave room to sign JD. Who knows? Maybe Moreland is a good clubhouse guy and the team really liked him? If he has an injury free season he’s good for 20+ HRs and good defense. If our budget wasn’t so tight, I’d have like the Moreland signing way more than I do presently.

 

Moreland was a bad signing and a waste of $6.5M a year x 2.

 

We could have signed a pitcher and had more room for Swihart, Nunez and others.

 

(Or, we could have signed Morrison.)

[mvp 78]

Moreland was a bad signing and a waste of $6.5M a year x 2.

 

We could have signed a pitcher and had more room for Swihart, Nunez and others.

 

(Or, we could have signed Morrison.)

 

Duda was just signed at 1/3.5. I can't say Moreland's deal is horrible though. If they had someone that could take over at 1b (Shaw), then they wouldn't have needed to sign him for 2 years.

[moonslav59]

Duda was just signed at 1/3.5. I can't say Moreland's deal is horrible though. If they had someone that could take over at 1b (Shaw), then they wouldn't have needed to sign him for 2 years.

 

Wow, half the money and years as Moreland.

[moonslav59]

All these bargain deals makes the HRam signing look even worse.

[Bellhorn04]

All these bargain deals makes the HRam signing look even worse.

 

I don't see how. That was over 3 years ago.

[moonslav59]

I don't see how. That was over 3 years ago.

 

We could have a better hitter for $3-5M.

 

We couldn't say that 3 years ago.

 

That's what changed.

[jacksonianmarch]

The CBA was different when Hanley signed. I think MLB pitched what was supposed to be a sweetheart deal to MLBPA and convinced them that all teams will try to win, etc, etc, etc. but once the big teams reloaded through the farm and avoided the big penalties to reset their lux tax, it left the middle level players without homes. This will continue without some easing from the MLB. The s***** part in all this is the fact that we are going to see another work stoppage. The owners are absolutely raking it in with NYY and LAD re-setting while still being super teams. The fact that there are 3 stacked teams in the NL and 4 in the AL has led everyone else to either try for a token wild card spot or rebuild. It’s the perfect storm and the free agents of this year are feeling it

[Kimmi]

Who are some half-way decent journeymen vets still left looking for a minor league deal?

 

Clay Buchholz? Honestly, I have no clue.

[Kimmi]

If only someone had thought of that every week once a week since November...

 

Notin for GM!

[Kimmi]

Moreland was a bad signing and a waste of $6.5M a year x 2.

 

We could have signed a pitcher and had more room for Swihart, Nunez and others.

 

(Or, we could have signed Morrison.)

 

I don't think Moreland was a bad signing. I am glad that he was re-signed and am happy to have him on the team.

 

That said, with the way that free agent contracts have gone this year, Dombrowski probably could have gotten him for a lot cheaper if he had waited out the market like he did with JD. It's the risk you take though, not knowing how the market will play out.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think Moreland was a bad signing. I am glad that he was re-signed and am happy to have him on the team.

 

That said, with the way that free agent contracts have gone this year, Dombrowski probably could have gotten him for a lot cheaper if he had waited out the market like he did with JD. It's the risk you take though, not knowing how the market will play out.

 

Exactly. GM's do not have crystal balls.

[moonslav59]

The CBA was different when Hanley signed. I think MLB pitched what was supposed to be a sweetheart deal to MLBPA and convinced them that all teams will try to win, etc, etc, etc. but once the big teams reloaded through the farm and avoided the big penalties to reset their lux tax, it left the middle level players without homes. This will continue without some easing from the MLB. The s***** part in all this is the fact that we are going to see another work stoppage. The owners are absolutely raking it in with NYY and LAD re-setting while still being super teams. The fact that there are 3 stacked teams in the NL and 4 in the AL has led everyone else to either try for a token wild card spot or rebuild. It’s the perfect storm and the free agents of this year are feeling it

 

I get the reasons why, but watching these good hitter sign for peanuts is making me dislike the HRam (and Pablo) signing more and more.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Moreland was a bad signing. I am glad that he was re-signed and am happy to have him on the team.

 

That said, with the way that free agent contracts have gone this year, Dombrowski probably could have gotten him for a lot cheaper if he had waited out the market like he did with JD. It's the risk you take though, not knowing how the market will play out.

 

Same thing happened last year with EE and others.

 

Two years now. Will he hold off next year?

[notin]

Same thing happened last year with EE and others.

 

Two years now. Will he hold off next year?

 

Although EE could have had a better deal if he took his offer from Toronto...

[moonslav59]

I'm dying to see how little Moose gets.

[moonslav59]

A couple of stories from MLBTR...

 

Veteran Red Sox star Dustin Pedroia had a bit more done to his knee than had previous been known, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. In addition to cartilage restoration work, Pedroia underwent a microfracture procedure to his tibia. Regardless, it seems that the hard-nosed veteran is progressing well given that he has now advanced to taking batting practice. Meanwhile, fellow infielder Marco Hernandez is still six weeks away from resuming baseball activities, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. Hernandez underwent shoulder surgery last May and only just had screws removed, but at least he now seems to be in sight of returning to the field.

 

In other Red Sox coverage, Bradford discusses new signee J.D. Martinez’s unique relationship with his personal hitting coach. As it turns out, new Boston hitting coach Tim Hyers is well acquainted with Martinez’s guru Robert Van Scoyoc, who’ll be allowed to continue consulting with Martinez even though he has been hired by the Diamondbacks. It’s a deep and interesting look at how Martinez’s unique approach will fit with the organization.

[Nick]

Keith Moreland signing was insurance move.

 

Quit being Monday morning quarterbacks. DD wanted to bring back last year's team as the 'floor'. Nunez deal took longer because of his health. Note that Sox was in constanct contact with Nunez camp.

 

It was better to approach JD Martinez deal with the team pretty well set.

 

If Moreland's presence keep s Hanley from vesting then basically we signed Moreland for nothing.

[Bellhorn04]

Same thing happened last year with EE and others.

 

Two years now. Will he hold off next year?

 

As you know, last year we might have signed EE if it wasn't for the mandate to reset the tax rate.

[Bellhorn04]

Clay Buchholz? Honestly, I have no clue.

 

There's also Jake Peavy.

 

I would go with Buchholz and Peavy, for old times' sake.

[jacksonianmarch]

I get the reasons why, but watching these good hitter sign for peanuts is making me dislike the HRam (and Pablo) signing more and more.

 

It also shows you the power of the Yankee and Dodger spectre. It was out there early that the Yankees were staying under the cap. Once they got Stanton before the winter meetings, they were out on nearly everyone else. The Dodgers, shortly after the winter meetings, make their salary shifting deal and make it clear that they are out. The Giants then make a series of deals for players under contract and push them to the cap. Once the really big markets are out and Boston is one of the only ones left, they can modestly outbid other teams and have their picks of the litter.

 

The cap is a very big penalty. If you’re over the cap and sign a QO player the following year, you lose INTL bonus money and an extra pick in the draft. The lost INTL bonus money attacks the team’s base, meaning that it also severely impacts the 85% extra they can deal from. You lose $1 mil in INTL funds from a large market budget of $4.5 mil and the penalty in actuality takes you from an $8.325 mil budget down to a $6.475 budget. That’s either one top 5 signing or upwards of 8-10 near 6 figure bonuses on INTL players (and these are the ones NY and LA hit on for some reason). The extra 5th round pick loss is another $320,000 loss to your draft pool which also hits the 5% overage on that money as well and takes your 5th rounder away also. They need to re-do this because now only the truly elite, game changing players will get big money while the second tier guys will have to settle for sub arbitration level contracts on short terms

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, I guarantee that most of these guys got initial offers elsewhere. Tyler Chatwood was the only one with enough sense to take one. He’s likely to be the second highest paid starter on the market this year.