A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Spudboy]

Deal.

 

So what is at stake here?

[Bellhorn04]

So what is at stake here?

 

Nothing, except 'told you so' rights.

[moonslav59]

East Notes: JDM, Red Sox

By Connor Byrne | March 3, 2018 at 11:04pm CDT

 

Newly signed Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez figures to spend most of his time at designated hitter, though the team is planning how to set up its outfield when he does factor in as a defender. “At home he’ll play left field and if somehow he plays somewhere on the road here, he’ll play right field,” manager Alex Cora told Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald and other reporters Saturday. Cora went on to reveal that right fielder Mookie Betts could move to center during road games in which Martinez plays the field. Of course, it’s unclear how often this will come up for Boston, which already has an excellent outfield trio of Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. (center) and Andrew Benintendi (left). Unlike those three, Martinez has struggled of late in the field, where he has posted minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-24.9 Ultimate Zone Rating since 2016.

[moonslav59]

Here is a look at our 40 man roster by age:

 

My top 25 in RED

 

34

Pedey

HRam

 

33

Wright

 

32

Price

Moreland

 

30

Nunez

Martinez

 

29

Kimbrel

Kelly

Holt

Elias

Workman

Thornburg

Pomeranz

Velazquez

Porcello

Hembree

Leon (3/13)

Sale (3/30)

 

28

Scott

Smith

 

27

JBJ

Barnes

Vazquez

Marrero

Johnson

 

26

Maddox

 

25

Swihart

Jerez

Shepherd

Hernandez

Bogaerts

Betts

 

24

Buttrey

ERod

Beeks

Travis

Lin

 

23

Benintendi

 

21

Devers

 

[sk7326]

I don't like any part of the deal.

 

I wouldn't have wanted him at $19M/1 or $38M/2 years. He's a zero WAR player every other year and now sucks on defense. There's very little upside, despite his age.

 

Morrison & Duda will have better seasons at a fraction of the cost and years.

 

I'm sticking with my 25% money and 50% length, which comes to $36M/4. Maybe I'd go as far as $40M/4.

 

To be fair, his defense sucks by UZR numbers - which is significantly less useful to grade 1B ... even so you are right in the bigger picture

[moonslav59]

To be fair, his defense sucks by UZR numbers - which is significantly less useful to grade 1B ... even so you are right in the bigger picture

 

He sucks by DRS, too.

 

+3 in 2013

+3 in 2014

+1 in 2015

-6 in 2016

-7 in 2017

 

 

 

He looks okay according to the Fielding Bible vote totals, but he's still getting worse...

 

41 in 2013 (7th)

16 in 2014 (13th)

31 in 2015 (8th)

12 in 2016 (11th)

17 in 2017 (10th)

[OH FOY]

Duda is HR producer, but not a run producer. HR's to RBI's ratio not good, tells me doesn't hit well with Runners on. .250 hitter at best, Hosmer has a higher ceiling. You don't like Hosmer, that's fine I do.

[moonslav59]

Duda is HR producer, but not a run producer. HR's to RBI's ratio not good, tells me doesn't hit well with Runners on. .250 hitter at best, Hosmer has a higher ceiling. You don't like Hosmer, that's fine I do.

 

First of all, RBIs depend a lot on how often men are in base or in scoring position when you come up to bat. Second, Hosmer is worse than Duda....

 

Duda is a .796 career OPS guy.

 

He has 405 RBI in 2665 ABs (.152 per AB)

 

He's .805 with RISP, which is higher than otherwise. (257 RBI in 642 ABs 0r .40 per AB). He's .869 with 2 outs & RISP.

 

He's .789 with runners on base, which is just below his career OPS.

 

 

Hosmer is a career .781 OPS guy.

 

He has 566 RBIs in 4393 ABs, which is .128 RBI per AB- significantly worse than Duda.

 

Hosmer is .814 with RISP, which is also better than otherwise and slightly better than Duda. He's .818 with men on base, which is also better than Duda, but with less HRs, he gets about the same RBIs per AB...

 

 

RISP RBI/AB

.415 Hosmer

.401 Duda

 

Men on base RBI/AB

.278 Hosmer

.277 Duda

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Last 4 years...

 

RBI per AB

.139 L Duda (252/1813)

.137 Hosmer (349/2552)

 

OPS with RISP

.888 Duda

.865 Hosmer

 

RBI/AB with RISP

.442 Hosmer 261/590

.434 L Duda154/355

Edited March 4, 2018 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

He sucks by DRS, too.

 

+3 in 2013

+3 in 2014

+1 in 2015

-6 in 2016

-7 in 2017

 

 

 

He looks okay according to the Fielding Bible vote totals, but he's still getting worse...

 

41 in 2013 (7th)

16 in 2014 (13th)

31 in 2015 (8th)

12 in 2016 (11th)

17 in 2017 (10th)

 

Yes - he sucks by measures which aren't very useful for 1B considering that UZR/DRS does not really account for catching the ball, which is the vast majority of the 1B gig.

[moonslav59]

Yes - he sucks by measures which aren't very useful for 1B considering that UZR/DRS does not really account for catching the ball, which is the vast majority of the 1B gig.

 

DRS does account for catching the ball.

 

UZR/150 does, too, but they do put a lot of emphasis on the amount of plays made out of possible plays possible, which isn't a bad thing for any defender to be judged by.

 

UZR shows Hosmer is a plus on ErrR (over 3.0 for 3 straight years), so his bad numbers would be worse without that factoring in. He's a big minus on range (-11.2 and -4.4 the last 2 years). He's minus on DPR (-0.3 and -0.2)

 

On Inside Edge Fielding, he's made less than 60%

of "likely plays" in 2 of his last 3 seasons (78% career). On "even plays", he's been horrible over the last 2 years:

 

14.3% in 2016

20.0% in 2017

 

These are plays most 1Bmen make 40-60% of the time.

Edited March 4, 2018 by moonslav59

[harmony]

I would not have signed Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144 million contract, but this board's Hosmer hate is over the top.

 

The Padres sought leadership for a young club with long-range potential.

 

BTW, Hosmer stroked a three-run homer today ... I hope to see Hosmer play on Thursday against the Cubs.

Edited March 4, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I would not have signed Eric Hsomer to an eight-year, $144 million contract, but this board's Hosmer hate is over the top.

 

The Padres sought leadership for a young club with long-range potential.

 

BTW, Hosmer stroked a three-run homer today ... I hope to see Hosmer play on Thursday against the Cubs.

 

I don't hate players who suck for other teams.

[Kimmi]

I would not have signed Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144 million contract, but this board's Hosmer hate is over the top.

 

The Padres sought leadership for a young club with long-range potential.

 

BTW, Hosmer stroked a three-run homer today ... I hope to see Hosmer play on Thursday against the Cubs.

 

I would agree Harmony. Hosmer certainly was not worth an 8 year contract, but on a shorter team deal, I think he'd be a good addition.

[harmony]

I don't hate players who suck for other teams.

Steamer, last year's most accurate of the widely available projections, projects 2018 WAR of 2.4 in 624 plate appearances for Eric Hosmer and 2.4 in 544 plate appearances for J.D. Martinez:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3516&position=1B

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6184&position=OF

 

Other services give the 30-year-old Martinez a substantial edge over the 28-year-old Hosmer in projected 2018 WAR but each player's nine-figure contract carries significant risks.

[moonslav59]

Steamer, last year's most accurate of the widely available projections, projects 2018 WAR of 2.4 in 624 plate appearances for Eric Hosmer and 2.4 in 544 plate appearances for J.D. Martinez:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3516&position=1B

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6184&position=OF

 

Other services give the 30-year-old Martinez a substantial edge over the 28-year-old Hosmer in projected 2018 WAR but each player's nine-figure contract carries significant risks.

 

So, you think Hosmer and JD are equal?

[moonslav59]

Steamer, last year's most accurate of the widely available projections, projects 2018 WAR of 2.4 in 624 plate appearances for Eric Hosmer and 2.4 in 544 plate appearances for J.D. Martinez:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3516&position=1B

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6184&position=OF

 

Other services give the 30-year-old Martinez a substantial edge over the 28-year-old Hosmer in projected 2018 WAR but each player's nine-figure contract carries significant risks.

 

So, Steamer projects an .827 OPS for Hosmer. His first back-to-back .800 OPS (actually .762+) seasons of his career.

 

They project a .910 OPS for JD.

 

I guess they value s***** defense much more than I do.

[Hugh2]

...

[notin]

So, Steamer projects an .827 OPS for Hosmer. His first back-to-back .800 OPS (actually .762+) seasons of his career.

 

They project a .910 OPS for JD.

 

I guess they value s***** defense much more than I do.

 

Holder's defense isn't s*****. He doesn't deserve those Gold Gloves but he csn play the position to the level of an average first baseman. That undoubtedly adds to his fWAR projection, and since Martinez is expected to DH most of the time, he's probably getting zero love from the glove. ..

[harmony]

So, you think Hosmer and JD are equal?

J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer present a wide range of potential outcomes, including the possibility that Hosmer will outproduce Martinez.

 

Perhaps not highly likely, but within the realm of possibility. We'll have a better idea in three years or so.

 

Martinez has been hyped as the primary Red Sox target since before the onset of the offseason. Hosmer has been the offseason's piñata because, as stated at MLB Trade Rumors, "Every year one free agent is particularly polarizing, and this winter it’s Hosmer."

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

Nevertheless, MLB Trade Rumors projected Martinez and Hosmer with similar contracts. Their ultimate contracts are hard to compare but one could contend that Hosmer got the better deal, perhaps because Hosmer has played in 478 games over the last three seasons while Martinez has played in only 397 games over that period.

 

Many long-term contracts represent poor investments but I hope Martinez works out for the Red Sox and Hosmer for the Padres.

[moonslav59]

Holder's defense isn't s*****. He doesn't deserve those Gold Gloves but he csn play the position to the level of an average first baseman. That undoubtedly adds to his fWAR projection, and since Martinez is expected to DH most of the time, he's probably getting zero love from the glove. ..

 

WAR actually subtracts value for being a DH.

 

Hosmer has been s*****. He used to be decent, but over the last 2 years he has categorically sucked.

 

I know UZR/150 and DRS are nit the best defensive measures for 1Bmen, but to finish 25th out of 30 in UZR/150 and 30th out of 30 in DRS tells an accurate enough picture of his defensive deterioration.

 

He sucks on defense.

[moonslav59]

J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer present a wide range of potential outcomes, including the possibility that Hosmer will outproduce Martinez.

 

Perhaps not highly likely, but within the realm of possibility. We'll have a better idea in three years or so.

 

Martinez has been hyped as the primary Red Sox target since before the onset of the offseason. Hosmer has been the offseason's piñata because, as stated at MLB Trade Rumors, "Every year one free agent is particularly polarizing, and this winter it’s Hosmer."

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

Nevertheless, MLB Trade Rumors projected Martinez and Hosmer with similar contracts. Their ultimate contracts are hard to compare but one could contend that Hosmer got the better deal, perhaps because Hosmer has played in 478 games over the last three seasons while Martinez has played in only 397 games over that period.

 

Many long-term contracts represent poor investments but I hope Martinez works out for the Red Sox and Hosmer for the Padres.

 

You didn't answer my question, and Steamer itself projects a hug disparity in OPS between the two.

[harmony]

You didn't answer my question, and Steamer itself projects a hug disparity in OPS between the two.

J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer are not equal in terms of OPS but a narrow focus on OPS is not particularly helpful in assessing overall value.

 

It's interesting that FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron listed Hosmer as the No. 1 free agent landmine:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-free-agent-landmines/

 

... before Cameron took a job in the San Diego Padres analytics department:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-one-i-never-thought-i-would-write/

Edited March 5, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer are not equal in terms of OPS but a narrow focus on OPS is not particularly helpful in assessing overall value.

 

It's interesting that FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron listed Hosmer as the No. 1 free agent landmine:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-free-agent-landmines/

 

... before Cameron took a job in the San Diego Padres analytics department:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-one-i-never-thought-i-would-write/

 

So, will you ever answer which one you think will have the better year and contract term?

 

You don't have to use OPS or Steamer. I'm just wondering who you think is the better player and who will end up being the best signing overall.

[harmony]

So, will you ever answer which one you think will have the better year and contract term?

 

You don't have to use OPS or Steamer. I'm just wondering who you think is the better player and who will end up being the best signing overall.

J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer represent similar value in relation to their respective contracts.

 

Or not. No one should care about my opinion.

 

Martinez is a better fit for the Red Sox because of the perceived need for a big bat while Hosmer is a better fit for the Padres because of his age, health and reported leadership skills.

 

Hosmer is no stranger to joining a downtrodden franchise. The Royals had averaged 97.4 losses a season in the seven years before Hosmer's arrival and suffered 91 and 90 losses in Hosmer's first two seasons in Kansas City. The Royals have since made to trips to the World Series, winning the title in 2015. Perhaps Hosmer can lead a similar renaissance in San Diego.

 

Or not.

 

I hope Martinez and Hosmer live up to their contracts but I'll be pulling for Hosmer because the Padres are my favorite National League team.

[moonslav59]

J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer represent similar value in relation to their respective contracts.

 

Or not. No one should care about my opinion.

 

Martinez is a better fit for the Red Sox because of the perceived need for a big bat while Hosmer is a better fit for the Padres because of his age, health and reported leadership skills.

 

Hosmer is no stranger to joining a downtrodden franchise. The Royals had averaged 97.4 losses a season in the seven years before Hosmer's arrival and suffered 91 and 90 losses in Hosmer's first two seasons in Kansas City. The Royals have since made to trips to the World Series, winning the title in 2015. Perhaps Hosmer can lead a similar renaissance in San Diego.

 

Or not.

 

I hope Martinez and Hosmer live up to their contracts but I'll be pulling for Hosmer because the Padres are my favorite National League team.

 

I value your opinion. I know you rely on WAR and projected WAR for much of your positions, but I was wondering about your opinion.

 

Put it this way, if you were a Sox or Padre fan, would you be happier as a Sox fan signing JD to his deal or as a Padre fan signing Hosmer?

[harmony]

I value your opinion. I know you rely on WAR and projected WAR for much of your positions, but I was wondering about your opinion.

 

Put it this way, if you were a Sox or Padre fan, would you be happier as a Sox fan signing JD to his deal or as a Padre fan signing Hosmer?

Close call but I would be happier as a Padre fan with the Eric Hosmer signing because his physical apparently did not require nearly a week of contract negotiations to cover injury concerns.

 

Again, I hope the contracts work out for all sides.

[moonslav59]

Close call but I would be happier as a Padre fan with the Eric Hosmer signing because his physical apparently did not require nearly a week of contract negotiations to cover injury concerns.

 

Again, I hope the contracts work out for all sides.

 

So, you'll take the guy who is decent half the seasons but stays healthy every season.

[harmony]

So, you'll take the guy who is decent half the seasons but stays healthy every season.

Let's revisit the issue in one year, two years and three years.

[moonslav59]

Let's revisit the issue in one year, two years and three years.

 

I'm sure nobody will let me forget my position, if Hosmer goes on to do well.

 

I guess I'll never understand what so many people see in a 1Bman who sucks every other year and is barely decent the rest of the time, and whose one redeeming skill, defense, has now become a big negative.

 

His clubhouse leadership must be off-the-charts great!

 

I realize JD is a gamble, but it's a shorter gamble, and he's not had an off year for 4 years. Hosmer's had 2.