A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Kimmi]

I'm going to hold the line on my thinking here. I think that as a team they over achieved last year. I just do not think that our position players are as good as many here believe. Since we have some youngsters, things could change for sure. 93 wins form this group in my opinion was fantastic. Speaks highly for the pitching staff more than anything else. Like you, I was not upset with Farrell being let go and it will be nice to see a fresh face in there. Maybe Alex Cora does know how to deal with younger developing players better than Farrell but if people think that that might happen simply because he is closer in age to members of this team, I think that they are wrong. I hope that it does not work against him.

 

As I've said many times, I think that with the absence of Papi, many of the players tried to do too much. When things didn't go as plan, they would start pressing. They didn't stay within their game. I think most of the players realize that now. I think this is where the comments like 'sometimes it wasn't fun' are coming from. I'm reading today that the players were too focused on day to day stats, which seems to go along with what I'm saying. Perhaps a different manager would have been able to take some of the pressure off of the kids that they seemed to have placed on themselves.

 

I don't think it has anything to do with Cora being closer in age to the players. I am excited about Cora because I think he is a less 'traditional' manager. But as I said, I would have been fine if Farrell had stayed.

[Kimmi]

I am not seeing the "widespread under performance." Betts regressed from an MVP type season. That is to be expected. He still had an okay season. XB was banged up for most of the season, and his season was okay despite that. Hanley was clearly injured, but that is nothing new for him. Hanley playing a full season without injury and performing to his potential has become the oddity in his career. I think this "widespread under performance" to which you refer is a creation in your own mind, and I don't think the coaching staff can help with this type of "under performance" that is due to injury and wear and tear, but maybe they can do something about idiotic base running. That is fixable, and so is throwing to the wrong base on from the OF.

 

You could have written this post without the line I put in bold. In which case, I would have responded to the baseball content of it.

[moonslav59]

How is 9 out of 10 players declining from 2017 to 2018 and 6 of 8 from 2016 to 2018 declining a "creation" of anybody's mind?

 

I'm fine with disagreeing.

 

I'm fine with blaming the loss of Papi, although that does not explain the declines from 2015 to 2 016.

 

But, calling it a "creation of the mind" is indeed, belittling or condescending.

Edited February 17, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

How is 9 out of 10 players declining from 2017 to 2018 and 6 of 8 from 2016 to 2018 declining a "creation" of anybody's mind?

 

I'm fine with disagreeing.

 

I'm fine with blaming the loss of Papi, although that does not explain the declines from 2015 to 2 016.

 

But, calling it a "creation of the mind" is indeed, belittling or condescending.

 

I agree that there were a surprising number of declines. The only thing I would point out is that some of the declines may be traced to injuries (Bogaerts, Hanley) and sample size differences (Benintendi). Also Betts said at one point that he was been pitched to differently and was making some adjustments etc.

[moonslav59]

I agree that there were a surprising number of declines. The only thing I would point out is that some of the declines may be traced to injuries (Bogaerts, Hanley) and sample size differences (Benintendi). Also Betts said at one point that he was been pitched to differently and was making some adjustments etc.

 

Oh, yes, there are reasons for just about everyone who declined.

 

Leon was expected. JBJ was streaky all along. Young was aging. Hot got a concussion.

 

Yes, Bogey & HRam battled a injury. Beni's 2017 sample size was tiny. Betts is really the only one with no obvious excuse, and one guy declining is not a trend or widespread issue.

 

The fact that all these things happened at once is freaky, to say the least. The fact that 6 of 8 declined from their 2016 to 2018 numbers might just mean these guys are just not as good as they promised they might be back in 2015-2016 or 2017.

 

My hope is this has all been a fluke. Maybe Papi's departure had an influence on the 2017 to 2018 declines, but it will be short-lived. I seriously doubt we'll see 9 of 10 players decline again or even stay even in 2018.

[cp176]

As I've said many times, I think that with the absence of Papi, many of the players tried to do too much. When things didn't go as plan, they would start pressing. They didn't stay within their game. I think most of the players realize that now. I think this is where the comments like 'sometimes it wasn't fun' are coming from. I'm reading today that the players were too focused on day to day stats, which seems to go along with what I'm saying. Perhaps a different manager would have been able to take some of the pressure off of the kids that they seemed to have placed on themselves.

 

I don't think it has anything to do with Cora being closer in age to the players. I am excited about Cora because I think he is a less 'traditional' manager. But as I said, I would have been fine if Farrell had stayed.

 

I haven't read a thing about the players being too focused on their everyday stats. I'm sure that we agree that that is not a good thing. I'm really thinking that regardless of how much help the information age might provide, too much information can be a bad thing. I want these guys to just play and forget how everyone else suggests that they should be playing.

[Spudboy]

I think he is projecting stupidity onto others.

 

Big penises rule Champ!

[a700hitter]

You could have written this post without the line I put in bold. In which case, I would have responded to the baseball content of it.

I think you are being overly sensitive. I don't see the "widespread under performance". You see it. I assume that your ideas are formed in your brain/mind. LOL!!

[a700hitter]

I did see widespread under-performance. I don't think using deviation from career norms does justice to how players normally trend upwards as they near prime, stay close to the same during prime and then usually decline after peak prime.

 

Our top 8 players by 2016 PAs declined in OPS in 2017- some by a lot. 9 of 10 returning players with 100+ PAs declined.

 

2016 PA - player-2016>2017 OPS

 

Pre-prime players(20-26):

730 Betts ,897 > .803 (Regression after an MVP Season and Injury)

719 Bogey .802 > .746(Injuries)

184 Vazquez .585

118 Beni .835 > 776 (Not enough AB's in 2016 to call 2017 underperformance)

(Significant decline with 3 of 4 with players usually on the rise) (2 of 4)

 

Prime players (27-29):

636 JBJ .835 > .726

324 Holt .705 >.548 (Injuries and coming off a career year where he made All Star team)

283 Leon .845 > 644 (Over performed in 2016 -- Unreasonable to expect him to repeat)

(Massive declines for all 3 in middle of prime years) (Only 1 of these declines was unforeseeable)

 

Just post-prime (30-32):

698 Pedey .825 >.760 (Injury)

620 HRam .866 > .750 (Injury)

227 Young .850 > .709

(Even among this group of post-prime players, the decline was sharp for all 3. (2 of the 3 were badly injured for most of the season)

What about 2017 compared to 2015:

 

Player-2015>2017 OPS

 

Pre-prime players(20-26):

Betts .820 > .803

Bogey .776 > .746

Swihart .712> .629 in 7 PAs

 

Prime players (27-29):

JBJ .832 > .726

Holt .727 >.548

Leon .439> .644

 

Just Post-prime (30-32):

Pedey .797 >.760

HRam .717

 

We still see 6 of the 8 top PAs players from 2015 have lower PAs in 2017, and 6 of the 8 were pre or mid prime.

 

It might not be a massive decline, but it was significant and more than anything, widespread.

 

See my annotations above in red. Under performance due to injury is not the kind of under performance that can be rectified by coaching as Kimmi was discussing. Almost all of the under performance that was not injury related was attributable to a regression to career norms. Very little of the under performance is not attributable to very good explanation.

[notin]

I have no clue who you are talking about but I really think that you underestimate me. If there are people here who actually believed what I said about blaming the analytical minds to be for real, I will say that they need to check the wattage in their light bulbs. Does that include you? Say it's not so notin ...

 

I did have someone in mind, but it wasn't you...

[notin]

I think you are being overly sensitive. I don't see the "widespread under performance". You see it. I assume that your ideas are formed in your brain/mind. LOL!!

 

Or maybe you're the one projecting your stupidity on to others..

 

[a700hitter]

Or maybe you're the one projecting your stupidity on to others..

 

How is that? I projected nothing onto anyone. I disagreed with her clearly stated opinion.

 

But I have learned to expect you to take every opportunity to be a condescending prick.

[notin]

How is that? I projected nothing onto anyone. I disagreed with her clearly stated opinion.

 

But I have learned to expect you to take every opportunity to be a condescending prick.

 

So you made the exact same comment about me and that wasn't being a condescending prick? How does one get this immunity you have?

[a700hitter]

So you made the exact same comment about me and that wasn't being a condescending prick? How does one get this immunity you have?

Superior intellect, and as Spud would say -- the bigger penis. LOL!!

[notin]

Superior intellect, and as Spud would say -- the bigger penis. LOL!!

 

That would explain it. You clearly envy me for both of those traits. ...

[moonslav59]

See my annotations above in red. Under performance due to injury is not the kind of under performance that can be rectified by coaching as Kimmi was discussing. Almost all of the under performance that was not injury related was attributable to a regression to career norms. Very little of the under performance is not attributable to very good explanation.

 

When a player is nearing prime, you expect improvement not "regression to career norm, especially for young players who struggled out of the gate and then had 1.5+ decent seasons and are 1-3 years from peak prime.

 

Career norm is not an indicator of future performance for a player below peak.

 

Also, you keep mentioning Betts regression from his big year, but it doesn't explain why it was also less than 2015... same with Bogey & JBJ.

 

Look, I get that many under performances were injury related, but we had injuries last year and the year before, and a few of these guys declined two straight years at ages where that is rare.

 

Yes, I did put some of the blame on JF, and maybe that wasn't fair due to all the injuries, but it's not a mind construct to say there was widespread under performance, even if some was injury related.

 

Even, if there was 2:1 odds that each of 10 player would decline, you'd expect at least 2-3 guys to increase their OPS. We saw 1.

 

Leon, HRam & Pedi, yes. Fine to expect a decline, but even with those three, there were decent odds one might have a good year or at least even to 2016.

 

Yes, including Beni with his small 2016 sample size can be ignored, but all of Betts, Bogey and JBJ declining at once was clearly against all odds, when you look at their place on the age curve expectation charts.

 

I'm not a math guy, but if the odds that these guys would do worse were somewhere around this last March, we fell far short of performance expectations:

 

Odds of doing worse:

 

95% Leon (but would it be projected at a 200 point drop?)

70% HRam (...a 116 point drop?)

65% Young (but not a 141 point drop)

60% Pedey (37 point drop was not unreasonable)

50% Holt (a 179 point drop?)

 

40% Betts

40% JBJ

35% Bogey

 

Put all these together and it doesn't come to oh for 8.

 

I'm fine with saying due to injuries, they did not "under perform," and we'd be largely just be arguing semantics, but the fact is all but one guy declined, and it wasn't because they all had big up years or outlier seasons in 2016. Many did worse in 2016 than 2015 and worse in 2017 when compared to 2015 as well.

[a700hitter]

When a player is nearing prime, you expect improvement not "regression to career norm, especially for young players who struggled out of the gate and then had 1.5+ decent seasons and are 1-3 years from peak prime.

 

Career norm is not an indicator of future performance for a player below peak.

 

Also, you keep mentioning Betts regression from his big year, but it doesn't explain why it was also less than 2015... same with Bogey & JBJ.

 

Look, I get that many under performances were injury related, but we had injuries last year and the year before, and a few of these guys declined two straight years at ages where that is rare.

 

Yes, I did put some of the blame on JF, and maybe that wasn't fair due to all the injuries, but it's not a mind construct to say there was widespread under performance, even if some was injury related.

 

Even, if there was 2:1 odds that each of 10 player would decline, you'd expect at least 2-3 guys to increase their OPS. We saw 1.

 

Leon, HRam & Pedi, yes. Fine to expect a decline, but even with those three, there were decent odds one might have a good year or at least even to 2016.

 

Yes, including Beni with his small 2016 sample size can be ignored, but all of Betts, Bogey and JBJ declining at once was clearly against all odds, when you look at their place on the age curve expectation charts.

 

I'm not a math guy, but if the odds that these guys would do worse were somewhere around this last March, we fell far short of performance expectations:

 

Odds of doing worse:

 

95% Leon (but would it be projected at a 200 point drop?)

70% HRam (...a 116 point drop?)

65% Young (but not a 141 point drop)

60% Pedey (37 point drop was not unreasonable)

50% Holt (a 179 point drop?)

 

40% Betts

40% JBJ

35% Bogey

 

Put all these together and it doesn't come to oh for 8.

 

I'm fine with saying due to injuries, they did not "under perform," and we'd be largely just be arguing semantics, but the fact is all but one guy declined, and it wasn't because they all had big up years or outlier seasons in 2016. Many did worse in 2016 than 2015 and worse in 2017 when compared to 2015 as well.

I find very little of the down performances to be inexplicable, and as much as I would like to tie some of it to Farrell, I can't. Almost all of it was injury related-- Betts (hand), Bogaerts (wrist), Pedroia (knee), HanRam (Shoulder), Holt (Concussion), Leon ( a leg injury that he played through but had him hobbled).

[moonslav59]

One more thing...

 

For argument's sake, least assume "career norm"= career OPS before 2017 vs 2017 OPS

 

Career Player (age) 2017

 

.861 HRam (32) .750 massive decline, even for a playre at this age

.811 Pedey (32) .760 pretty steep decline for this age

.748 Young (32) .709 pretty significant decline

(All-in-all, this group declined by more than their age might suggest the do.)

 

.790 Pablo (29) .622 massive decline

.705 Holt (28) .548 massive decline

.681 Leon (27) .644 significant deecline

(Again, for this age group, all excuses aside- a pretty significant decline.)

 

.749 Bogey (23) .746 close to norm

.855 Betts (23) .803 significant decline

.726 JBJ (26) .726 at norm [awful start to early career affected "career norm"]

.602 Vaz (25) .735 massive increase [only 385 PAs before 2017]

(One would not expect an overall career norm or worse years for this age group. You expect improvement.)

 

We got no met expectations for any age group.

[moonslav59]

I find very little of the down performances to be inexplicable, and as much as I would like to tie some of it to Farrell, I can't. Almost all of it was injury related-- Betts (hand), Bogaerts (wrist), Pedroia (knee), HanRam (Shoulder), Holt (Concussion), Leon ( a leg injury that he played through but had him hobbled).

 

Again, I'm not arguing the declines were without excuses, and within the context of your argument with Kimmi, I get your point, but my point is that there was widespread under performance, much due to injury (more than we had in 2016), some due to expected decline by age curve expectations and some not really a wild surprise, but when you look at the fact that 8 of the top returning 8 PAs guys all declined at once, it's "widespread" as widespread can be.

[a700hitter]

Again, I'm not arguing the declines were without excuses, and within the context of your argument with Kimmi, I get your point, but my point is that there was widespread under performance, much due to injury (more than we had in 2016), some due to expected decline by age curve expectations and some not really a wild surprise, but when you look at the fact that 8 of the top returning 8 PAs guys all declined at once, it's "widespread" as widespread can be.

But as much as I would like to, I can't tie any of it to Farrell.

[a700hitter]

Again, I'm not arguing the declines were without excuses, and within the context of your argument with Kimmi, I get your point, but my point is that there was widespread under performance, much due to injury (more than we had in 2016), some due to expected decline by age curve expectations and some not really a wild surprise, but when you look at the fact that 8 of the top returning 8 PAs guys all declined at once, it's "widespread" as widespread can be.

And we got some big over performance from Nunez and Devers was arguably better in his first partial season than was Benitendi in 2016.

[jacksonianmarch]

You are all looking at 2017 as a year of the decline. I think you should probably look at 2016 as the year of the rise. Guys with career high WAR's in 2016: Bogaerts, Bradley Jr., Betts, Leon. Hanley put up his best WAR as a Red Sox in 2016 sandwiched between 2 negatives. Pedey had his best WAR since 2011. And this was all centered around Ortiz having one of the best send-off seasons ever. You remove Ortiz, guys come back down to prior levels or performance and now your team isn't all it was cracked up to be. I still think you need more offense, but I don't know if DD shares that sentiment. I think you might be done unless JD comes back to Boston's offer. I wonder if JD ends up going back to Arizona and signs a Cespedes type deal, shorter term (3 years) with an opt out after year 1.

[Spudboy]

I find very little of the down performances to be inexplicable, and as much as I would like to tie some of it to Farrell, I can't. Almost all of it was injury related-- Betts (hand), Bogaerts (wrist), Pedroia (knee), HanRam (Shoulder), Holt (Concussion), Leon ( a leg injury that he played through but had him hobbled).

 

Don't forget Moreland played through a broken toe.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe some of the declines had to do with other teams taking advantage of our passive hitting philosophy - taking all those first pitch strikes.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh, yes, there are reasons for just about everyone who declined.

 

Leon was expected. JBJ was streaky all along. Young was aging. Hot got a concussion.

 

Yes, Bogey & HRam battled a injury. Beni's 2017 sample size was tiny. Betts is really the only one with no obvious excuse, and one guy declining is not a trend or widespread issue.

 

The fact that all these things happened at once is freaky, to say the least. The fact that 6 of 8 declined from their 2016 to 2018 numbers might just mean these guys are just not as good as they promised they might be back in 2015-2016 or 2017.

 

My hope is this has all been a fluke. Maybe Papi's departure had an influence on the 2017 to 2018 declines, but it will be short-lived. I seriously doubt we'll see 9 of 10 players decline again or even stay even in 2018.

 

Man you really buggered up the years in this post LOL

[oldtimer]

Again, I'm not arguing the declines were without excuses, and within the context of your argument with Kimmi, I get your point, but my point is that there was widespread under performance, much due to injury (more than we had in 2016), some due to expected decline by age curve expectations and some not really a wild surprise, but when you look at the fact that 8 of the top returning 8 PAs guys all declined at once, it's "widespread" as widespread can be.

 

I tend to agree with the point of widespread unnderperformance with the bat even given some injury issues in 2017. Guys like JBJ, Betts and Bogey were examples of guys who have hit better but were in regression in the second half. Maybe Bogey's wrist was involved aand Betts hand, but it doesn't explain taking first pitch strikes down the middle and chasing balls off the plate. We may well see a difference under Cora with these guys and can draw further conclusions about the reasons for the underperformance after we see the performance going forward this year. My eye test tells me it had to do with JF and his coaches.

[cp176]

When a player is nearing prime, you expect improvement not "regression to career norm, especially for young players who struggled out of the gate and then had 1.5+ decent seasons and are 1-3 years from peak prime.

 

Career norm is not an indicator of future performance for a player below peak.

 

Also, you keep mentioning Betts regression from his big year, but it doesn't explain why it was also less than 2015... same with Bogey & JBJ.

 

Look, I get that many under performances were injury related, but we had injuries last year and the year before, and a few of these guys declined two straight years at ages where that is rare.

 

Yes, I did put some of the blame on JF, and maybe that wasn't fair due to all the injuries, but it's not a mind construct to say there was widespread under performance, even if some was injury related.

 

Even, if there was 2:1 odds that each of 10 player would decline, you'd expect at least 2-3 guys to increase their OPS. We saw 1.

 

Leon, HRam & Pedi, yes. Fine to expect a decline, but even with those three, there were decent odds one might have a good year or at least even to 2016.

 

Yes, including Beni with his small 2016 sample size can be ignored, but all of Betts, Bogey and JBJ declining at once was clearly against all odds, when you look at their place on the age curve expectation charts.

 

I'm not a math guy, but if the odds that these guys would do worse were somewhere around this last March, we fell far short of performance expectations:

 

Odds of doing worse:

 

95% Leon (but would it be projected at a 200 point drop?)

70% HRam (...a 116 point drop?)

65% Young (but not a 141 point drop)

60% Pedey (37 point drop was not unreasonable)

50% Holt (a 179 point drop?)

 

40% Betts

40% JBJ

35% Bogey

 

Put all these together and it doesn't come to oh for 8.

 

I'm fine with saying due to injuries, they did not "under perform," and we'd be largely just be arguing semantics, but the fact is all but one guy declined, and it wasn't because they all had big up years or outlier seasons in 2016. Many did worse in 2016 than 2015 and worse in 2017 when compared to 2015 as well.

 

There were a number of the boys who had poorer years last year for whatever the reasons might be. I'm a one year at a time kind of guy. I think that it is great to have lofty expectations but until I see something different, they are what they are. We'll have to take what comes. It is still possible and seems likely even to me that some of these players just aren't as good as some think that they are. You add Nunez and Devers to the mix and a little life got injected into the group. Having Nunez back if healthy and a signing of Martinez might make all of these guys appear better. One thing I do hope for is that our players don't drool over what the analytics are saying with respect to how they should be playing. It is ok for us I guess, but for them I kind of hope that they just go out and play the game as well as they can. If they do, I think that we will be just fine. Block out all of the distractions and just play the game.

[Hitch]

I think this "widespread under performance" to which you refer is a creation in your own mind.

 

I think he is projecting stupidity onto others.

 

 

Condescending.

 

But I have learned to expect you to take every opportunity to be a condescending prick.

 

 

Self-awareness has never been your strongest suit.

[Kimmi]

I agree that there were a surprising number of declines. The only thing I would point out is that some of the declines may be traced to injuries (Bogaerts, Hanley) and sample size differences (Benintendi). Also Betts said at one point that he was been pitched to differently and was making some adjustments etc.

 

Yes, some of the declines could be traced to injury. But even something like the stat I posted about taking first pitches down the middle should be cause for alarm. That type of approach is probably contributing to the underperformance of players, and is that not a coaching issue?

[Kimmi]

 

I haven't read a thing about the players being too focused on their everyday stats. I'm sure that we agree that that is not a good thing. I'm really thinking that regardless of how much help the information age might provide, too much information can be a bad thing. I want these guys to just play and forget how everyone else suggests that they should be playing.

 

Pedroia referenced it in his press conference yesterday, response to a question about Mookie's and Xander's comments that last season wasn't always fun:

 

“I just think, for whatever reason, I think our overall outlook was really result-oriented that day. I think that can wear on you as an everyday player and as a pitcher because baseball is so hard, you fail seven out of 10 times, you’re really good. And I think if you’re really result-oriented that day the day you can go home and get a good night’s rest is if your team wins by 10 and you go 4-for-4 with four home runs and that’s not realistic.

 

“So instead of looking at the big picture, you show up you do your work, you prepare to beat the other pitcher, you prepare defensively and over the course of the year it’s a process. You’re going to have your 0-for-10s, your 0-for-15s, your 0-for-20s but if you prepare the right way and stick to the plan you’re going to be fine and I think that gives your mind ease. If I put in the work it’s going to be right there. And your teammates see you put in the work, they know it’s going to be there so there’s less stress, there’s less, technically, panic. You know if you put the work in and do the right things you’ll be successful. It’ll be there in the end.

 

“So I think we kind of went away from that and it was more ‘hey what are our results today? We’ve got to do good today,’ Bogey’s got to get four hits today. Mookie’s got to live up to huge expectations instead of being who you are and that’s especially in this environment that’s how you have to be. You have to understand you’re going to be bad and you’re going to be great. So just keep working and stay with what makes you get to that point and you’ll be fine.”