A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[notin]

Marcel projects Xander Bogaerts at .292/.354/.433/.786 with 13 home runs in 589 plate appearances:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml

 

ZiPS projects Bogaerts at .285/.347/.434/.781 with 16 home runs in 673 plate appearances:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

All pretty close. But the WAPM is historically the most accurate.

[Kimmi]

The WAPM has spoken!

 

A better season, albeit not a freakish breakout.

 

.276/.357/.447 (.804 OPS) with 18 HRs for Bogaerts.

 

(Worth pointing out the WAPM does better for mid season hot streaks.)

 

 

Steamer is projecting .290/.353/.445 with 16HRs. I don't like it when I'm that close to Steamer...

 

Sounds reasonable to me.

 

I really think that being selectively aggressive will help his offense.

 

That, plus being healthy.

[moonslav59]

These are all the Sox players with 100+ PAs each season and were under age 29 each year...

 

2015-2016-2017

 

Betts .820-.897-.803

 

J.B.J. .832-.835-.726

 

Bogey .776-.802-.746

 

Holt .727-.705-.548

 

Beni n/a- .835-.776

 

Not one had a better 2017 season than 2016 or 2015.

Edited February 19, 2018 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

What if 2016 was the rise and 2017 is more who they will be going forward?

 

Of course that's always possible, but not what is expected, considering that those guys are still reaching their prime, age wise.

[Kimmi]

Bell, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. I don't think Betts is going to be top 2 in MVP voting every year. I don't anticipate JBJ is a 5 WAR player going forward. But they are capable of more than what they did in 2017

 

That's exactly what my point was a a few posts ago. I don't think any of us are expecting career years from these guys, just that they should be better than they were last year. That said, it wouldn't be surprising if one or two of them had breakout years.

[Kimmi]

These are all the Sox players with 100+ PAs each season and was under age 29 each year...

 

2015-2016-2017

 

Betts .820-.897-.803

 

J.B.J. .832-.835-.726

 

Bogey .776-.802-.746

 

Holt .727-.705-.548

 

Beni n/a- .835-.776

 

Not one had a better 2017 season than 2016 or 2015.

 

Exactly.

 

It's not just wishful thinking with these guys. Improvement should be expected.

[cp176]

These are all the Sox players with 100+ PAs each season and were under age 29 each year...

 

2015-2016-2017

 

Betts .820-.897-.803

 

J.B.J. .832-.835-.726

 

Bogey .776-.802-.746

 

Holt .727-.705-.548

 

Beni n/a- .835-.776

 

Not one had a better 2017 season than 2016 or 2015.

 

I'm not arguing with your statistics and I certainly hope that all of these guys improve this year. I just don't think that it is a given that they will. I think that Betts likely falls somewhere between the high and the low if he has a good season. I don't know really what to expect out of JBJ and I doubt that anyone else does either. I expect a healthy Bogaerts to be better than last year. Holt I don't really care about and as for Beni who knows - hope for the best. Once again though signing Nunez, having Devers for a full season, hopefully signing Martinez and having a healthy Price on the mound are the players that will make the biggest differences on this team IMO. Obviously Betts once again is a key figure for us. I just think that with the four pivotal players that I mentioned for this team maybe some of the pressure to perform to career whatevers will be lessoned on the rest of the troops and as result they will be able to relax and just play the game. i hope that none of them really gives a crap about all of the predictions being made as to how everybody thinks that they will perform. Day to day - pitch by pitch - inning by inning - block out the ******** jibber jabber and just play this simple game. Don't try to make this an intellectual endeavor.

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

It's not just wishful thinking with these guys. Improvement should be expected.

 

...and it's easy to look at these guys one-by-one and find legitimate reasons for a decline. Injuries and whatever.

 

Betts did better at age 22 and 23 than 24.

 

Bogey did better at 22 and 23 than 24.

 

JBJ did better at 25 and 26 than 27.

 

Holt did better at 27 and 28 than 29 (not uncommon).

 

Beni did better at age 21 than 22.

 

By themselves, it's no big deal.

 

In totality, it's a rare happening.

 

It was very unexpected that all these guys declined at once, and although many did not decline much from their 2015 numbers, they all did worse.

 

Could it be that all these guys had an outlier season or two early in their career, and really are not as good as we came to believe? Of course, it's possible, but JBJ is 27 now (peak prime), Betts is 25 (still on the upswing of age curve charts) and so is Bogey. Beni will be 23 and could be expected to improve.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I'm not arguing with your statistics and I certainly hope that all of these guys improve this year. I just don't think that it is a given that they will. I think that Betts likely falls somewhere between the high and the low if he has a good season. I don't know really what to expect out of JBJ and I doubt that anyone else does either. I expect a healthy Bogaerts to be better than last year. Holt I don't really care about and as for Beni who knows - hope for the best. Once again though signing Nunez, having Devers for a full season, hopefully signing Martinez and having a healthy Price on the mound are the players that will make the biggest differences on this team IMO. Obviously Betts once again is a key figure for us. I just think that with the four pivotal players that I mentioned for this team maybe some of the pressure to perform to career whatevers will be lessoned on the rest of the troops and as result they will be able to relax and just play the game. i hope that none of them really gives a crap about all of the predictions being made as to how everybody thinks that they will perform. Day to day - pitch by pitch - inning by inning - block out the ******** jibber jabber and just play this simple game. Don't try to make this an intellectual endeavor.

 

Well, if Betts falls somewhere between 2015 and 2017, or better yet, 2015 and 2016, he'll improve.

 

Same with Bogey and JBJ. I agree, projecting JBJ is a tough one, him being so streaky and all. Yes, projecting Beni is hard at such an early age. He may still have adjusting and counter adjusting to do, before reaching his stride.

 

In totality, I expect these guys to improve on their 2017 numbers, but I'll also not be at all surprised if they improve on their 2016 aggregate numbers as well.

[cp176]

Well, if Betts falls somewhere between 2015 and 2017, or better yet, 2015 and 2016, he'll improve.

 

Same with Bogey and JBJ. I agree, projecting JBJ is a tough one, him being so streaky and all. Yes, projecting Beni is hard at such an early age. He may still have adjusting and counter adjusting to do, before reaching his stride.

 

In totality, I expect these guys to improve on their 2017 numbers, but I'll also not be at all surprised if they improve on their 2016 aggregate numbers as well.

 

I guess my primary point was (is) that if they improve as a group wonderful but the other guys I mentioned in addition to a better better version of Betts will be where the biggest positive difference will be made.

[dgalehouse]

I guess any team , or any business for that matter , could say that things are looking promising if all , or most , of our employees can perform better this year than they did last year. Hey , sometimes it happens.

[dgalehouse]

Marcel projects Xander Bogaerts at .292/.354/.433/.786 with 13 home runs in 589 plate appearances:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml

 

ZiPS projects Bogaerts at .285/.347/.434/.781 with 16 home runs in 673 plate appearances:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

Harm , Any word from Marcel on the Mariners chances of finishing better than third in the AL West this year ?

[harmony]

Harm , Any word from Marcel on the Mariners chances of finishing better than third in the AL West this year ?

I don't know about Marcel but the FanGraphs WAR projections give the Mariners only a slim chance:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=11

 

The Mariners probably have a better chance than the Red Sox of exceeding expectations. I'm looking forward to heading down to Spring Training in a few weeks.

[moonslav59]

I guess my primary point was (is) that if they improve as a group wonderful but the other guys I mentioned in addition to a better better version of Betts will be where the biggest positive difference will be made.

 

Yes, I agree.

 

500-650 PAs from JD replacing...

276 from Young (.709)

150-200 from HRam (.750)

50-100 from Moreland (.769)

47 from RDavis & S Selsky

 

300-350 more PAs from Devers replacing....

75-125 Marrero (.593)

118 from Rutledge (.558)

108 from Pablo (.622)

 

 

250-350 more PAs from Nunez replacing...

50-100 Marrero (.593)

50-100 B Holt (.548)

66 Lin (.709)

60 Marco (.628)

 

 

100-200 more PAs from Vazquez replacing...

100-200 from Leon (.644)

 

 

 

[Larry Cook]

I want to go back to leadership and pedroia for a second. There is an article on the NESN site that basically says pedroia wants others to step up and be the leaders of the team. Ok probably best for the team if that happens, don’t know who could fill that role. But that is pedrioa’s perrogative.

 

Then I read the lindy’s baseball preview issue and it has an unnamed scout talking about how pedroia owns the locker room and Cora needs to get pedroia in his corner so as to not wind up like Farrell who did not have pedroia in his corner.

 

And in my mind, the conclusion I get as that we have a totally dysfunctional locker room centered around pedrioa. I got a player who does not want to be a leader controlling the fates of the manager. This is not anyway to run a railroad. Somebody needs to step up and stop the madness.

 

What am I missing here?

[oldtimer]

Changing the subject. With the Hoz signing the door should be open for JDM to sign this week and the FA logjam to break. It has been crumbling of late. Hope we get JDM but if we don't life will go on.

[Bellhorn04]

I want to go back to leadership and pedroia for a second. There is an article on the NESN site that basically says pedroia wants others to step up and be the leaders of the team. Ok probably best for the team if that happens, don’t know who could fill that role. But that is pedrioa’s perrogative.

 

Then I read the lindy’s baseball preview issue and it has an unnamed scout talking about how pedroia owns the locker room and Cora needs to get pedroia in his corner so as to not wind up like Farrell who did not have pedroia in his corner.

 

And in my mind, the conclusion I get as that we have a totally dysfunctional locker room centered around pedrioa. I got a player who does not want to be a leader controlling the fates of the manager. This is not anyway to run a railroad. Somebody needs to step up and stop the madness.

 

What am I missing here?

 

To me it sounds like you're relying pretty heavily on the word of an unnamed scout in Lindy’s Baseball Preview issue.

 

Bottom line:

 

1) In spite of this colossal dysfunction some people are attributing to the 2017 team, they won the division.

2) If Cora is the good manager we're hoping he is, he'll figure out all this stuff.

[cp176]

I don't think that the dysfunction was colossal by any means but there sure looked as though there was some. If Cora becomes the manager that we hope that he becomes, trying to get a player in his corner will not be a priority for him. it will happen naturally if he is good at his job.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think that the dysfunction was colossal by any means but there sure looked as though there was some. If Cora becomes the manager that we hope that he becomes, trying to get a player in his corner will not be a priority for him. it will happen naturally if he is good at his job.

 

I agree there was dysfunction. There were incidents, that's for sure. And I don't mean to crucify Farrell, but when there were incidents he seemed to have no idea what to do but keep his mouth shut and act like nothing was going on.

[cp176]

I agree there was dysfunction. There were incidents, that's for sure. And I don't mean to crucify Farrell, but when there were incidents he seemed to have no idea what to do but keep his mouth shut and act like nothing was going on.

 

It does look like you could be right but I don't know what was going on in there. I do know that it bothered me. One thing that I will say about Farrell is that his reaction to Pomeranz's little fit in the dugout seemed to turn the big lefties season around. Personally I can say that I really don't know who was leading the way and who represented the distractions. Reading what some of these guys have said this spring has made me aware that all things were not great and that things could be different in a good way this year. Oh well, it seems that for the majority of fans these issues don't really matter as long as the team wins. Sometimes I wish that they didn't matter so much to me.

[Bellhorn04]

It does look like you could be right but I don't know what was going on in there. I do know that it bothered me. One thing that I will say about Farrell is that his reaction to Pomeranz's little fit in the dugout seemed to turn the big lefties season around. Personally I can say that I really don't know who was leading the way and who represented the distractions. Reading what some of these guys have said this spring has made me aware that all things were not great and that things could be different in a good way this year. Oh well, it seems that for the majority of fans these issues don't really matter as long as the team wins. Sometimes I wish that they didn't matter so much to me.

 

Yes that's a fair point about Pomeranz. Farrell kind of gave him the 'my way or the highway' talk is what it looked like. Maybe Farrell had no problem laying down the law with younger players, but didn't know what to do if it was a veteran player like Price causing a problem.

[cp176]

Yes that's a fair point about Pomeranz. Farrell kind of gave him the 'my way or the highway' talk is what it looked like. Maybe Farrell had no problem laying down the law with younger players, but didn't know what to do if it was a veteran player like Price causing a problem.

 

That probably is quite likely. He might have known what he wanted to do with his veterans but a wealthy talented athlete under contract I bet could be tough to deal with.

[sk7326]

I agree there was dysfunction. There were incidents, that's for sure. And I don't mean to crucify Farrell, but when there were incidents he seemed to have no idea what to do but keep his mouth shut and act like nothing was going on.

 

This was the weird thing about last year. There was dysfunction seemingly. It did not read as a fun place to work. It wore some on the kids and veterans (for different reasons). At the same time, the team still won ... and the guys showed a LOT of grit and toughness. They overcame a lot of adversity to pull together a pretty successful season ... unfortunately a non-negligible chunk of that adversity was self-inflicted. Farrell has to have check marks in both columns in that way.

[moonslav59]

I always thought JF was a great pitching coach, and our pitchers did over perform last year, especially the pen.

 

He and his staff sucked with everyday players. All but Vazquez declined or "under performed".

 

Many did worse than 2015 numbers as well.

[sk7326]

I always thought JF was a great pitching coach, and our pitchers did over perform last year, especially the pen.

 

He and his staff sucked with everyday players. All but Vazquez declined or "under performed".

 

Many did worse than 2015 numbers as well.

 

But then - you had terrific production from Bogaerts, Betts in 2016 ... a year which also counts on his record. You also have amazing seasons from Victorino and Mike Carp in 2013. The problem with the evaluation is that all of it counts.

 

I am okay with him being replaced with Cora - I am very high on Cora. But it is absolutely possible to do worse.

 

I cite last year as a weird case where nobody over-performed their expectation (except for Vasquez and Devers) ... which usually you get in good seasons. But - aside from Bogaerts (who had injury problems) nobody was BAD either. Everybody was kind of in the middle of the expected range of outcomes (Betts was a dropoff from 2016, but STILL a fringy MVP level season) . Since so much of the core was young, you wish there was a leap from somewhere ... but there is nothing that precludes that from happening this year.

[a700hitter]

The WAPM has spoken!

 

A better season, albeit not a freakish breakout.

 

.276/.357/.447 (.804 OPS) with 18 HRs for Bogaerts.

 

(Worth pointing out the WAPM does better for mid season hot streaks.)

 

 

Steamer is projecting .290/.353/.445 with 16HRs. I don't like it when I'm that close to Steamer...

That is an improvement over his injury plagued 2017, but it is certainly not a breakout.

[cp176]

I always thought JF was a great pitching coach, and our pitchers did over perform last year, especially the pen.

 

He and his staff sucked with everyday players. All but Vazquez declined or "under performed".

 

Many did worse than 2015 numbers as well.

 

Saying that he and his coaching staff sucked with everyday players is just a little too extreme for me. I wish Alex Cora well and maybe they will win a game or two more but John Farrell and his coaching whether you like them or not did not suck. I shudder to think what will happen to Cora and his staff if this incredible high number of what you and a few others say under performed so dramatically last year don't show an equal amount of improvement this year. I think that it would be a good thing for everybody if this concept of extreme under performance was allowed to just kind of fade away. Maybe we will find out that last year was really closer to what Betts and Bradley really are and maybe we won't. I'm not willing to grant membership into the under performing society to any player who played through injury. Crap happens - it is a new year and the under performance drum has been beaten to death. It is now all about this year not last year or the year before. Like I said before, Alex Cora may be very successful but it won't be because he has some secret baseball formula that no one has ever seen before.

[Spudboy]

I agree there was dysfunction. There were incidents, that's for sure. And I don't mean to crucify Farrell, but when there were incidents he seemed to have no idea what to do but keep his mouth shut and act like nothing was going on.

 

Hmm. I can't disagree but I saw an interview during the Price / Eck flare-up where Farrell said that what was going on was being handled internally.

 

If that was the case then it is not so much his failure to do something but just an example of how he was doing something that may not have been known by the press and public.

 

Who the f*** knows?

 

Onward to Cora.

[cp176]

Hmm. I can't disagree but I saw an interview during the Price / Eck flare-up where Farrell said that what was going on was being handled internally.

 

If that was the case then it is not so much his failure to do something but just an example of how he was doing something that may not have been known by the press and public.

 

Who the f*** knows?

 

Onward to Cora.

 

I agree with you and I don't blame them one f***ing bit for keeping things in house and away from both the public and the press. Look what happens here. Like the style or not, that is one of the things I like about the Pats. We just don't need to know everything that is going on.

[Spudboy]

I agree with you and I don't blame them one f***ing bit for keeping things in house and away from both the public and the press. Look what happens here. Like the style or not, that is one of the things I like about the Pats. We just don't need to know everything that is going on.

 

Yup.