A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Kimmi]

In a rare on-the-record comment about the J.D. Martinez situation, two weeks ago Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said: ""We are in active negotiations with J.D. Martinez. ... It takes two to make a deal."

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/01/boston_red_soxs_tom_werner_we.html

 

... which suggests certain interest on one side and uncertain interest on the other.

 

While it's certainly possible that JD does not want to play in Boston, I take that comment to be more about JD being unsatisfied with the current offer rather than being disinterested.

[Kimmi]

and that is all about greed - when you are talking about astronomical figures like they are asking for, it defines greed. I could care less also about what an owner makes. Good luck to these morons for trying to be as capitalistic as they can be. It is what we do. I'd like to say that sometimes you win but sometimes you lose but if these fools sign for 5 or 10 million dollars less than what they want, they still don't lose. Even though I am very pleased to see the Sox seemingly holding the line, I still wish that they would head in a different direction.

 

I wish there were more players who would leave money on the table and take a lesser contract for one reason or another. Maybe because they don't want to uproot their family. Maybe because they were born and raised in a city and want to play for their hometown. Or whatever reason. It is disheartening that it's almost always just about the money.

 

Then, so often it seems like the player who just went after the biggest contract ends up unhappy.

 

Are they really going to miss $10 million when they are making $125 million?

[Kimmi]

I certainly get what you're saying.

 

I'm not ready to think of Martinez as a bad guy yet.

 

I tend to think he's relying on the advice of Boras.

 

To me it's not much different than if you're trying to sell your house.

 

You've got an offer in hand for $350,000 but your agent is convinced that if you wait a little longer you'll get an offer for $360,000 or $375,000. The agent has a good track record of being right. What do you do?

 

Most people would probably listen to the agent. They wouldn't want to kick themselves later for getting less money for the house than they could have.

 

I think there's a fine line between greed and just wanting to get the best deal you can. Maybe it's just human nature.

 

Good point. I still find it disheartening though.

[Kimmi]

My opinion that Dempster was a dope to walk away from $13 million. He is a hero to John Henry. His wife divorced him shortly thereafter. I wonder if she cited stupidity in the divorce papers.

 

I, OTOH, have all the respect in the world for Dempster.

[Kimmi]

He wants his money. It'll be his biggest chance of his lifetime to earn a huge payday. I can't blame him for waiting until the end.

 

I don't think he's a bad guy either. I do think he needs to come to grips with the reality of what the market will bear, though.

[Kimmi]

Kudos to Dempster for setting his priorities correctly, whatever they were-obviously the top priority was not money, nor should it ever be unless you are starving or homeless.

 

He obviously didn't need the money. Sometimes, there are more important things.

[Kimmi]

Goal for 2018 without JD

 

Get into the playoffs with healthy starting rotation....I'll take my chances with Sale, Price, Pom and Porcello/E Rod

 

Get out of Hanley contract for 2019....save $22M

Find a replacement for Kimbrel for 2019 (Carson Smith?)....save $13M

Trade and find a replacement for Porcello for 2019 (Wright?)....save $20M

Find a replacement for J Kelly for 2019....save $3.8M

 

that's total savings of $58.8M, get rid of Holt and we're close to $61M.

 

Immediate action will be to sign Pomeranz. He's already making $8.5M, luxury tax limit goes up by $9M. So from my perspective we already have slotted $17.5M for Pom.

 

Assuming we sign Pom or someone comparable for $20-22M, I think we can still compete and get into the playoffs in 2019. Yeah some of that $60M in savings will be eaten up by higher arbitration numbers, but we still should have enough to sign one impact bat for 2020 or save money for Sale for 2020.

 

I'll go out on the limb and anoint Michael Chavis as a starter for 2019, savings some money.

 

I do not get the eagerness to trade Porcello.

[a700hitter]

Or he went home to fix his marriage and it didn't work out. It's his life. He tried to do what was best for him. Maybe a last ditch effort to save his personal life was more important than $6.5M?

I am yet to hear of an instance where quitting one's job and sacrificing a career has saved a marriage. It didn't work for another Ryan too -- Sandberg. He walked away from $14 million/2 years to save his marriage. She filed divorce papers 3 weeks after he retired. He came back to play the following season for $1.5 million. Two Cubbies named Ryan neck and neck in the dope contest

[a700hitter]

I do not get the eagerness to trade Porcello.

I didn't get the eagerness to give him the 4 year extension.

 

We should have traded him last off season when his value was high.

[Kimmi]

I didn't get the eagerness to give him the 4 year extension.

 

We should have traded him last off season when his value was high.

 

I have said it before, and I'll say it again. I'd do that extension over again any day of the week.

[a700hitter]

I have said it before, and I'll say it again. I'd do that extension over again any day of the week.

i guess that you just can’t get enough of 15 and 17 loss seasons with ERAs closer to 5 than 4 and leading the league in HRs for $21 million/season. Don’t sign me up, and you are fired as the GM.

[a700hitter]

[h=2]Price's elbow feeling good heading into camp[/h]

David Price is healthy ahead of Red Sox camp

WWW.MLB.COM

---

BOSTON -- Eight days before the official start of Spring Training, David Price has some good news for Red Sox fans.His left elbow, which limited him to 11 starts last season, is feeling strong.Price was among several Red Sox players who has been working out at the team's Spring Training

[moonslav59]

i guess that you just can’t get enough of 15 and 17 loss seasons with ERAs closer to 5 than 4 and leading the league in HRs for $21 million/season. Don’t sign me up, and you are fired as the GM.

 

Seasons?

 

How many seasons has Porcello made $21M and lost 15 to 17 games?

[a700hitter]

Seasons?

 

How many seasons has Porcello made $21M and lost 15 to 17 games?

He did that twice, but that rich extension didn't kick in until after the first of those awful seasons which make the extension more absurd.

[Spudboy]

That extension was premature.

[Nick]

I do not get the eagerness to trade Porcello.

 

got to cut cost somewhere.

 

Yep, it would be great to keep everyone and sign JD this winter, throw in Nunez, then sign Machado next year. But that's unrealistic.

 

You have to make choices. Do you extend Pom and keep Porcello if he has a trade value?

 

Aren't you the one advocating for using young players? Why not go with Wright if he's healthy? He eats up innings as well as the next guy. His ERA can't be any worse than Porcello's.

Edited February 7, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Since the extension...

 

33-21 3.86

 

7.2 WAR (13th in MLB)

 

426 IP (4th in MLB)

 

1.69 BB/9 (4th in MLB)

 

1.19 WHIP (22nd in MLB)

 

88 ERA- (25th in MLB)

 

1 great season- one not so great.

 

2 more to go.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Since the extension...

 

33-21 3.86

 

7.2 WAR (13th in MLB)

 

426 IP (4th in MLB)

 

1.69 BB/9 (4th in MLB)

 

1.19 WHIP (22nd in MLB)

 

88 ERA- (25th in MLB)

 

1 great season- one not so great.

 

2 more to go.

 

 

 

When the sinker is sinking; he is a cy young type pitcher.

 

When the sinker is not sinking; he is the meatball king! Serving up more meatballs than all the Olive Garden restaurants put together.

 

I think we need to keep him and take the gamble that he fixes the sinker!

[moonslav59]

Trading Porcello opens salary budget space, but then we need a SP'er.

 

That will be costly in dollars and/or players if by trade.

.

I suppose we could trade Porcello and maybe force HRam with him for prospects. Sign JD and LoMo (or Nunez, if we can't dump HRam). Trade JBJ & Johnson for a SP'er (Salazar?).

[Nick]

Trading Porcello opens salary budget space, but then we need a SP'er.

 

That will be costly in dollars and/or players if by trade.

.

I suppose we could trade Porcello and maybe force HRam with him for prospects. Sign JD and LoMo (or Nunez, if we can't dump HRam). Trade JBJ & Johnson for a SP'er (Salazar?).

 

so bottom line, going rate for Porcello's performance last year is $20M? good to know.

[Bellhorn04]

so bottom line, going rate for Porcello's performance last year is $20M? good to know.

 

According to FanGraphs, Porcello had a 2.0 WAR and was worth 16.3 million last year.

 

According to Baseball-Reference, Porcello had a -0.2 WAR and was worth, well, less than nothing last year.

 

Little wonder that WAR for pitchers can be a head-scratcher.

[mvp 78]

According to FanGraphs, Porcello had a 2.0 WAR and was worth 16.3 million last year.

 

According to Baseball-Reference, Porcello had a -0.2 WAR and was worth, well, less than nothing last year.

 

Little wonder that WAR for pitchers can be a head-scratcher.

 

I think Fangraphs WAR is heavily influenced by innings pitched. 200+ innings is great, but when attached to a 4.60 FIP... Not so hot.

[moonslav59]

so bottom line, going rate for Porcello's performance last year is $20M? good to know.

 

No GM in MLB places value on a player based solely on last year's performance.

 

Even if Porcello's "true value" is somewhere around $14-16M, and we trade him, in order to "save" about $5M, is signing Cobb or Lynn for $14-16M a year really an upgrade? Maybe. Maybe not.

 

If the $5M "saved" helps us sign Nunez or LoMo, then maybe it's worth it, but it's hard to tell.

 

In theory, trading Porcello and replacing him, in kind, at a lower cost makes sense, but in reality, it's not an easy thing to do.

 

Why wouldn't the team trading for Porcello just sign Lynn or Cobb themselves?

[Bellhorn04]

I keep Porcello. He's an innings-eater and he can pitch better than he did last year. He just has to do it. We have a new pitching coach so let's hope that helps.

[moonslav59]

I keep Porcello. He's an innings-eater and he can pitch better than he did last year. He just has to do it. We have a new pitching coach so let's hope that helps.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic, and if I had to bet, I'd put my money on Porcello improving on his 2017 numbers significantly.

[notin]

He did that twice, but that rich extension didn't kick in until after the first of those awful seasons which make the extension more absurd.

 

Except that the first year of that extension was a year he won the Cy Young. So he's only had the one bad year since it kicked in.

 

He got the extension primarily because he's very young for a pitcher looking at free agency. He's only a few days older than Bryce Brentz, whom many think still deserves a chance. That he settled for 4 years when he could have gotten 6 or 7 on the open market and probably well over $120million did mean the extension made sense. Jason Heyward got a crazy expensive long contract primarily based on age around that time...

[Nick]

No GM in MLB places value on a player based solely on last year's performance.

 

Even if Porcello's "true value" is somewhere around $14-16M, and we trade him, in order to "save" about $5M, is signing Cobb or Lynn for $14-16M a year really an upgrade? Maybe. Maybe not.

 

If the $5M "saved" helps us sign Nunez or LoMo, then maybe it's worth it, but it's hard to tell.

 

In theory, trading Porcello and replacing him, in kind, at a lower cost makes sense, but in reality, it's not an easy thing to do.

 

Why wouldn't the team trading for Porcello just sign Lynn or Cobb themselves?

 

Machado + Wright > Porcello + Xander

 

It's all about choices. Why in the hell would I trade Porcello to sign another $20M pitcher? My topic was on cutting cost.

 

Hanley's vesting option, get rid of it

Porcello, looks to me like our #5 pitcher, replace him with Wright or someone else.

Kimbrel, wants long term deal, PASS ON HIM AS FA

Holt, good riddance,

 

That saves us $60M so we can add an impact bat for 2019 (Machado?). IT'S ABOUT CHOICES, MOON. YOU CAN'T HAVE IT ALL. THERE IS A BUDGET SOMEWHERE.

[notin]

I'd rather have Porcello for two years than Lynn or Cobb for 4. Not only are Lynn and Cobb both older, but both have had TJ surgery in the past two seasons. Data to date suggests TJ surgery lasts about 600 innings, so both are at risk for another surgery and missed season during a 4 year deal. Also both carry QO penalties.

 

So Lynn and Cobb might get you one extra season over the next four, and one fully paid season with very few IP. And cost draft picks, not helping a very depleted farm that would be needed to replace them.

 

And Lynn's last season appears to have been carried by some BABIP luck.

 

Just keep the cheaper, healthier and shorter term Porcello over these two...

[mvp 78]

Except that the first year of that extension was a year he won the Cy Young. So he's only had the one bad year since it kicked in.

 

He got the extension primarily because he's very young for a pitcher looking at free agency. He's only a few days older than Bryce Brentz, whom many think still deserves a chance. That he settled for 4 years when he could have gotten 6 or 7 on the open market and probably well over $120million did mean the extension made sense. Jason Heyward got a crazy expensive long contract primarily based on age around that time...

 

Bryce Brentz deserves a chance as the 25th man on the roster making MLB minimum. Porcello is overpaid and underperforming. Hard to equate the two situations.

[moonslav59]

Machado + Wright > Porcello + Xander

 

It's all about choices. Why in the hell would I trade Porcello to sign another $20M pitcher? My topic was on cutting cost.

 

Hanley's vesting option, get rid of it

Porcello, looks to me like our #5 pitcher, replace him with Wright or someone else.

Kimbrel, wants long term deal, PASS ON HIM AS FA

Holt, good riddance,

 

That saves us $60M so we can add an impact bat for 2019 (Machado?). IT'S ABOUT CHOICES, MOON. YOU CAN'T HAVE IT ALL. THERE IS A BUDGET SOMEWHERE.

 

By the time Macho becomes a FA, Porcello & Bogey will have one year left, so it's not so simple as swapping contract costs for Porcello & Bogey.

 

Yes, the money in 2019 will be about even, and I'd much rather have Machado & Wright than Porcello & Bogey, but 2020 and beyond will be very costly.

 

Yes, there will be some money, but much will be eaten by rising arb costs of Betts, JBJ, Vaz, ERod and others.

 

I'm certainly interested in Machado, and I'd be willing to pass on JD, if it meant we got Machado.

 

The other part of your suggestion, is what could we get by trading Bogey & Porcello after 2018? Probably something very special to add to Machado's gain.

 

(I'm not against the idea.)