2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[harmony]

I don't think so. 42 wins, 36 losses, 16 no-decisions.

My error.

 

The Red Sox have won 57.4 percent of Rick Porcello's 94 starts with Boston.

[iortiz]

Rick Porcello has won 57.4 percent of his 94 starts with the Red Sox:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01-pitch.shtml

 

because he won 22 games in 2016 —a fluke year. In 2017 and 2015 he won 19 and LOST 32!

 

If you think Porcello is a Cy Young caliber pitcher, be my guest. He's not going to post 22 Ws again.

 

If he posts what his career suggests —W/L 53%— I will not be pleased but it will be a huge improvement considering what he delivered in 2015 and 2017.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd be quite happy if Porcello gives us another 195 innings, with an ERA of 4.25 or less.

[OH FOY]

Porcello relies on the Offense.

6-60 when scoring 0-2 runs

31-34 when scoring 3-5 runs.

81-4 when scoring 6+ runs.

Absolutely nothing special with him, good to get innings, and every 5th day. And hope the Offense is on that day.

[mvp 78]

Porcello relies on the Offense.

6-60 when scoring 0-2 runs

31-34 when scoring 3-5 runs.

81-4 when scoring 6+ runs.

Absolutely nothing special with him, good to get innings, and every 5th day. And hope the Offense is on that day.

 

How are those numbers different for other pitchers? Do other pitchers have winning records when the team only scores 0-2 runs?

[moonslav59]

Porcello relies on the Offense.

6-60 when scoring 0-2 runs

31-34 when scoring 3-5 runs.

81-4 when scoring 6+ runs.

Absolutely nothing special with him, good to get innings, and every 5th day. And hope the Offense is on that day.

 

Is this much different from other Sox pitchers not named Sale.

[harmony]

There is something to be said for durability. A player can have all the talent in the world and it does no good if he can't get on the fIeld. ...

The 200 innings that Rick Porcello typically tosses are 200 innings that must be covered by a pitcher or pitchers.

 

If Eduardo Rodriguez can pitch 150 of those innings (which the left-hander has not done the last two seasons), that still leaves 50 innings to be pitched by another pitcher or pitchers. The pitcher who makes up the innings difference between Porcello and Rodriguez is a pitcher who otherwise was not good enough to make the 25-man roster. More importantly, that supplemental pitcher takes up another slot on the 25-man roster, limiting the team's options.

 

That's what makes an innings-eater so valuable. No one is suggesting Porcello is a perennial Cy Young candidate but to date the right-hander has (inconsistently) lived up to his four-year, $82.5 million contract.

[moonslav59]

The 200 innings that Rick Porcello typically tosses are 200 innings that must be covered by a pitcher or pitchers.

 

If Eduardo Rodriguez can pitch 150 of those innings (which the left-hander has not done the last two seasons), that still leaves 50 innings to be pitched by another pitcher or pitchers. The pitcher who makes up the innings difference between Porcello and Rodriguez is a pitcher who otherwise was not good enough to make the 25-man roster. More importantly, that supplemental pitcher takes up another slot on the 25-man roster, limiting the team's options.

 

That's what makes an innings-eater so valuable. No one is suggesting Porcello is a perennial Cy Young candidate but to date the right-hander has (inconsistently) lived up to his four-year, $82.5 million contract.

 

ERod will not replace Porcello's IP. He will replace Wright/Johnson/Velazquez...

 

Porcello has the potential to be a solid #2 type starter or a #5 starter, but he likely will be like a #4 or maybe a 3.

[mvp 78]

ERod will not replace Porcello's IP. He will replace Wright/Johnson/Velazquez...

 

Porcello has the potential to be a solid #2 type starter or a #5 starter, but he likely will be like a #4 or maybe a 3.

 

If he's a "3" he's probably worth his contract.

 

Considering his nice ST beard, I may be on the Porcello train this year.

[harmony]

ERod will not replace Porcello's IP. He will replace Wright/Johnson/Velazquez...

 

Porcello has the potential to be a solid #2 type starter or a #5 starter, but he likely will be like a #4 or maybe a 3.

I was merely comparing the value of a 200-inning pitcher such as Rick Porcello and any 150-inning pitcher. The difference costs a team in terms of salary and roster slots.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm hoping for a good year for Rick. But I think even he would tell you that 2 out of his 3 seasons with us have been disappointing ones. His durability is certainly a big plus though.

[Spudboy]

I like Big Dick Rick.

[moonslav59]

I was merely comparing the value of a 200-inning pitcher such as Rick Porcello and any 150-inning pitcher. The difference costs a team in terms of salary and roster slots.

 

Okay.

 

Good point.

[iortiz]

I've been saying this for a long time. The key for Porcello is his HR/FB%. If he is around 9.5%, you will see a solid No. 2 pitcher in the rotation. If he can't keep the ball in the park and keeps posting those horrendous 14+% HR/FB% (which will be an up-hill battle in the ALE for him), he will suck again.

 

i.e. If his sinker doesn't sink, he will be in trouble. His fastball is a blank check. Only 30% of his pitches last year were sinkers, while in 2016 the percentage was 40, when he against odds won the Cy Young —although his BABIP/LOB% were the lowest/highest of his career (269/74). The lucky dragons taxed him in 2017.

 

IMHO and as I said before... the coaching staff can't do much to improve this guy since the talent simply isn't there.

 

Hopefully and at least the lucky dragons (BABIP/LOB) favor him again this year, like they did in 2016.

[Kimmi]

Don't bite Kimmi

 

LOL Too late.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi ,Porkchop is a career 5 era who melts like velveta with any sign of trouble ...his contract is horrrrrrific and should be jettisoned the minute someone is willing to pay half .A 10 million dollar cushion from that trade would get you Lance Lynn,Cobb or Arietta ....Heck if we go right up against the tax with getting rid of Matt Damon I mean Holt on top of that trade ? We can get Lynn and Cobb....I prefer Arietta ....

 

Oh come on, Porcello is not nearly as bad as you make him out to be.

 

Expect a rebound this year. Not to the 2016 level, but definitely much better than 2017.

[Kimmi]

WAR has always struggled with starters. It seems to reward durability over productivity. A guy who can go 6IP a start and take the bump 33 times a season will always get high WAR marks regardless of effectiveness. Porcello was an innings eater last year, but to say he was worth 2 wins above replacement because he was durable really demeans the basis of a replacement level player.

 

I disagree. I don't think WAR puts too much value on innings pitched. I think many fans don't give enough value to innings pitched. The ability to pitch make 33 starts @ 6 IP per start is quite valuable in and of itself.

[Kimmi]

My error.

 

The Red Sox have won 57.4 percent of Rick Porcello's 94 starts with Boston.

 

To add to that, Porcello had 3 cheap wins last season (wins in non quality starts) but had 9 tough losses (losses in quality starts).

[Kimmi]

The 200 innings that Rick Porcello typically tosses are 200 innings that must be covered by a pitcher or pitchers.

 

If Eduardo Rodriguez can pitch 150 of those innings (which the left-hander has not done the last two seasons), that still leaves 50 innings to be pitched by another pitcher or pitchers. The pitcher who makes up the innings difference between Porcello and Rodriguez is a pitcher who otherwise was not good enough to make the 25-man roster. More importantly, that supplemental pitcher takes up another slot on the 25-man roster, limiting the team's options.

 

That's what makes an innings-eater so valuable. No one is suggesting Porcello is a perennial Cy Young candidate but to date the right-hander has (inconsistently) lived up to his four-year, $82.5 million contract.

 

Very well said.

[moonslav59]

To add to that, Porcello had 3 cheap wins last season (wins in non quality starts) but had 9 tough losses (losses in quality starts).

 

I did not know this.

 

Do you have the same info on our other starters?

[sk7326]

WAR has always struggled with starters. It seems to reward durability over productivity. A guy who can go 6IP a start and take the bump 33 times a season will always get high WAR marks regardless of effectiveness. Porcello was an innings eater last year, but to say he was worth 2 wins above replacement because he was durable really demeans the basis of a replacement level player.

 

WAR is a counting stat ultimately - so durability has to matter. Replacement value by definition is an up and down guy basically - the idea is a team of replacement players would probably win 45-50 games. The idea that Porcello's production last year was a win or two better than 33 starts of a 4A guy seems totally reasonable.

 

WAR's problem with pitchers is much different - how do you split the credit for results on batted balls? Fangraphs and BBRef have clearly two different philosophies (and the 30 organizations have their own which differ from that). Porcello had 2.0 fWAR and -0.2 bWAR, and the spread is almost entirely due to this.

 

Slight digression - neither version is "wrong" ... but it's good to have both so you see how a guy is evaluated based on multiple premises and criteria.

[moonslav59]

WAR is a counting stat ultimately - so durability has to matter. Replacement value by definition is an up and down guy basically - the idea is a team of replacement players would probably win 45-50 games. The idea that Porcello's production last year was a win or two better than 33 starts of a 4A guy seems totally reasonable.

 

WAR's problem with pitchers is much different - how do you split the credit for results on batted balls? Fangraphs and BBRef have clearly two different philosophies (and the 30 organizations have their own which differ from that). Porcello had 2.0 fWAR and -0.2 bWAR, and the spread is almost entirely due to this.

 

Slight digression - neither version is "wrong" ... but it's good to have both so you see how a guy is evaluated based on multiple premises and criteria.

 

Well put, and probably taking the average WAR between the two is most accurate most of the time.

[Kimmi]

I did not know this.

 

Do you have the same info on our other starters?

 

FYI, these stats can be found at Baseball Reference. On the pitcher's stat page, click on 'Advanced Stats' under Finders & Advanced Stats.

 

Then scroll down to "Starting Pitching". These stats are listed as Wchp (cheap wins) and Ltuf (tough losses).

 

Here is the info for the other starters, cheap wins / tough losses:

 

Sale: 2/3

 

Pom: 4/0

 

Erod: 0/0

 

Fister: 0/2

 

Price: 1/1

[moonslav59]

FYI, these stats can be found at Baseball Reference. On the pitcher's stat page, click on 'Advanced Stats' under Finders & Advanced Stats.

 

Then scroll down to "Starting Pitching". These stats are listed as Wchp (cheap wins) and Ltuf (tough losses).

 

Here is the info for the other starters, cheap wins / tough losses:

 

Sale: 2/3

 

Pom: 4/0

 

Erod: 0/0

 

Fister: 0/2

 

Price: 1/1

 

So, basically Porcello got 30% of the cheap wins but 60% of the tough loses.

[oldtimer]

FYI, these stats can be found at Baseball Reference. On the pitcher's stat page, click on 'Advanced Stats' under Finders & Advanced Stats.

 

Then scroll down to "Starting Pitching". These stats are listed as Wchp (cheap wins) and Ltuf (tough losses).

 

Here is the info for the other starters, cheap wins / tough losses:

 

Sale: 2/3

 

Pom: 4/0

 

Erod: 0/0

 

Fister: 0/2

 

Price: 1/1

 

I wonder what the definitions of cheap wins and tough losses are. I will go back and look to see if they are defined. I would expect that a team that was 10th in runs scored and 27th in HR's would have a lot of tough losses.

 

I looked the definitions up and they are as follows:

 

First determine the starting pitcher's Game Score as follows:

Start with 50.

Add 1 point for each out recorded by the starting pitcher.

Add 2 points for each inning the pitcher completes after the fourth inning.

Add 1 point for each strikeout.

Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.

Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.

Subtract 2 points for an unearned run.

Subtract 1 point for each walk.

If the starting pitcher scores over 50 and loses, it's a Tough Loss. If he wins with a game score under 50, it's a Cheap Win.

Edited March 2, 2018 by oldtimer
added info

[notin]

So, basically Porcello got 30% of the cheap wins but 60% of the tough loses.

 

Also in 2016, Porcello had 3 tough losses in only 4 total losses. Only 3 of his wins were considered cheap...

[a700hitter]

Cheap losses or not. Porcello has stunk onn2 out of 3 season. If wins don’t mean anything , certainly cheap losses mean less. Porcello was a HR batting practice pitcher last year. I would have considered bringing him to HR Derby as my personal pitcher.

[moonslav59]

I'm not defending Porcello's 2017 season, and I agreed on IP being too highly valued in one WAR calculations, but his win-loss record was not aided by good luck. His W_L record should have been better, despite his less than decent season.

[iortiz]

Cheap losses or not. Porcello has stunk onn2 out of 3 season. If wins don’t mean anything , certainly cheap losses mean less. Porcello was a HR batting practice pitcher last year. I would have considered bringing him to HR Derby as my personal pitcher.

 

LOL!

 

It doesn't matter how hard they try to sugar coat it, Porcello has sucked in 2 out of 3 seasons in Boston Red Sox uniform, and he has sucked in 6 out of his 8 career seasons. He is not a good pitcher by any means.

 

Also, I wonder whether his prime has already passed or he is in decline. Some said that his prime started in 2015 when he joined the Red Sox.

 

Said that, hopefully he makes the adjustments and at least post something 9.5% HR/FB% otherwise he will be in trouble again.

[moonslav59]

LOL!

 

It doesn't matter how hard they try to sugar coat it, Porcello has sucked in 2 out of 3 seasons in Boston Red Sox uniform, and he has sucked in 6 out of his 8 career seasons. He is not a good pitcher by any means.

 

Also, I wonder whether his prime has already passed or he is in decline. Some said that his prime started in 2015 when he joined the Red Sox.

 

Said that, hopefully he makes the adjustments and at least post something 9.5% HR/FB% otherwise he will be in trouble again.

 

It doesn't matter how hard you try to bash Porcello, he's been very good in 2 out of 4 seasons. He's been decent or better in 6 of 8 seasons.