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2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

Northern Star

By Northern Star
in Boston Red Sox Talk

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notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Has any 28-29 year old ever been in the minors at those ages and gone on to hit 25+ HRs in the bigs?

 

Second question, how rare is it?

 

Even Daubach was younger and never hit that many home runs...

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cp176 Salem RidgeYaks

cp176

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Bear in mind Brentz and Barfield have a skill of hitting minor league pitching out of the park. And both of them took a long time to develop that skill. The jump to MLB is much more difficult, and if they take as long to learn to hit MLB pitching as both did to learn to hit AAA pitching (a skill Barfield still doesn't have), both will be in their mid-30's.

 

These are two ships that have sailed. Barfield might be invited to camp, but his chances of making the team are not much better than mine...

 

I do not agree with you that their ships have sailed. I'm pretty sure notin (lol) that I understand that there is difference between minor league and major league pitching. I admit that they are both long shots. I'm really not sure that Chavis is going to be a better option either though. Now as for your chance of making this team being equal to that of Barfield's, I get the fact that you have a high opinion of yourself (that's a joke notin) but I guess I would have to bet on Barfield's being a little better than yours and I don't even know you.

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Has any 28-29 year old ever been in the minors at those ages and gone on to hit 25+ HRs in the bigs?

 

Second question, how rare is it?

 

I can't think of any. Evan Gattis and Josh Hamilton debuted at age 26 and both went on to hit many home runs. But both also missed minor league time to spend some time in drug rehabs...

sk7326 FCL Red Sox

sk7326

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Nunez is certainly no power hitter, but look here....

 

2015-2017

 

ISO

.147 Nunez

.128 Bogey

.127 Pedey

.100 Holt

 

SLG

.457 HRam

.456 JBJ

.449 Moreland

.443 Nunez

.443 Morrison

.430 Pedey

.424 Bogey

.359 Holt (only 15 MLB have more PAs and a lower SLG% than Holt)

 

 

 

 

nunez is a quality utility guy ... and it is good we have him.

cp176 Salem RidgeYaks

cp176

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
My guess is he'd go to Oakland and hit 21 Hrs in 375 PAs (mostly on the road).

 

 

I would consider that productive and maybe to good to just let go.

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I do not agree with you that their ships have sailed. I'm pretty sure notin (lol) that I understand that there is difference between minor league and major league pitching. I admit that they are both long shots. I'm really not sure that Chavis is going to be a better option either though. Now as for your chance of making this team being equal to that of Barfield's, I get the fact that you have a high opinion of yourself (that's a joke notin) but I guess I would have to bet on Barfield's being a little better than yours and I don't even know you.

 

I said his chances were only slightly better. I'm at a flat 0%. He's around 1%, plus or minus.

 

So we're close...

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I would consider that productive and maybe to good to just let go.

 

I would bet well under that total. He only exceeded 21 HRs in the minors one time above A ball. And that was in his sixth season in AAA...

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
Has any 28-29 year old ever been in the minors at those ages and gone on to hit 25+ HRs in the bigs?

 

Second question, how rare is it?

 

After some mild research, the best rookie to start his career at age 29 or later (not counting Negro League or players who played in foreign leagues such as Japan and Cuba) was George Watkins.

 

In his age 30 season, Watkins came up for the Cardinals and hit .373/.415/.621 for an OPS of 1.036. He did only hit 17 home runs, which would be his career high.

Watkins played for 7 seasons in the majors. But he also did not start his minor league career until age 25 for reasons I don't know.

 

So he never managed the 21HR estimate for Brentz.

 

How rare is it? Watkins debuted in 1930. 88 years ago, when bosoxmal was in first grade...

Edited by notin
Bellhorn04 MVP

Bellhorn04

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
The only thing about Barfield is that they tried to convert him to a pitcher for a couple of years and that may have set him back quite a bit with the hitting. (Yes, I read the article on him by Speier in the Globe.)
FredLynn Greenville Drive

FredLynn

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
He is a contact hitter - and if it's hard it works ... but he has little history of power and he doesn't walk. He is not good defensively - but has value because he can play a bunch of positions.

 

He is also a "gamer"....he wanted to get out there and play despite obviously having a serious knee issue. Other guys won't play if they have a hangnail. I like the signing, though I don't expect him to perform as well as he did last year for us.

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The only thing about Barfield is that they tried to convert him to a pitcher for a couple of years and that may have set him back quite a bit with the hitting. (Yes, I read the article on him by Speier in the Globe.)

 

Even if he was just 27, it does seem to greatly reduce his chances.

 

And it's not like they tried to convert him to a pitcher because his hitting was already perfect. Chances are that move was made because they had more faith in his arm than his bat....

Bellhorn04 MVP

Bellhorn04

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Even if he was just 27, it does seem to greatly reduce his chances.

 

And it's not like they tried to convert him to a pitcher because his hitting was already perfect. Chances are that move was made because they had more faith in his arm than his bat....

 

No, they made a grave error in judgment and now it's been rectified!

 

C'mon man, stop being such a party pooper...:cool:

harmony FCL Red Sox

harmony

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Has any 28-29 year old ever been in the minors at those ages and gone on to hit 25+ HRs in the bigs?

 

Second question, how rare is it?

Kyle Jensen hit 30 home runs as a 28-year-old outfielder/first baseman at Triple A Reno in 2016 and after short stint in Japan is a nearly 30-year-old nonroster invitee of the San Francisco Giants:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=jensen001kyl

 

https://aroundthefoghorn.com/2018/02/11/san-francisco-giants-2018-non-roster-invites/

 

Jorge Vazquez hit 32 home runs as a 29-year-old corner infielder for Triple A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2011 but never played at the MLB level:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=vazque002jor

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
The only thing about Barfield is that they tried to convert him to a pitcher for a couple of years and that may have set him back quite a bit with the hitting. (Yes, I read the article on him by Speier in the Globe.)

 

Also got LASIK 2 years ago.

cp176 Salem RidgeYaks

cp176

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Also got LASIK 2 years ago.

 

He says that this year really was the first time that he was able to see. I'm really pulling for him and I don't care what notin says.

Spudboy Boston Red Sox

Spudboy

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I really don't think that the Sox can afford to allow any potential power hitters to get away. That would include Bryce Brentz as well as a very interesting Jeremy Barfield

 

I agree. Both are kind of old to be breaking in but Brentz has earned a look and Barfield may get one soon as well.

Kimmi Boston Red Sox

Kimmi

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Actually, this move likely ends the JD Martinez saga. I also think this satisfies the Hanley issue as well. For the beginning of the season, Hanley is a regular, Nunez moves to 2b and all is honkey dorey. When Pedroia returns, I think Nunez plays a lot of 3b, supplanting Devers to the DH role and relegating Hanley to platoon DH duties

 

How so? I don't see how signing Nunez has any affect on whether we sign JD or not. Nunez is more of a depth signing than anything.

Kimmi Boston Red Sox

Kimmi

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I'd get rid of Holt.

 

I'm not in as big a hurry to get rid of Holt as many people here are. I'd like to see what he can do if he is fully healed from his concussion.

Kimmi Boston Red Sox

Kimmi

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I've always agreed with you on Brentz. He's a long shot, at best.

 

However, even if we sign JD, we have very little OF depth, especially, if Nunez is needed at 2B, 3B or SS. The 40 man roster has just 4 OF'ers right now: Betts, Beni, JBj and Brentz. Yes, Holt, Swihart, Lin and maybe a couple others can play in the OF, but we really only have 4 legitimate OF'ers.

 

If we sign JD, we might DFA or trade Holt, Swihart, Jerez or Elias and keep Bryce.

 

(Again, I'd be fine with trading or DFA'ing Brentz.)

 

I really think it's going to come down to an options thing. I think Brentz deserves a chance, but being without options, he is likely on the short list to be DFA'd.

Kimmi Boston Red Sox

Kimmi

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
He is also a "gamer"....he wanted to get out there and play despite obviously having a serious knee issue. Other guys won't play if they have a hangnail. I like the signing, though I don't expect him to perform as well as he did last year for us.

 

By all accounts, he also a great clubhouse presence, which apparently, the Sox are in need of.

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

I set the search at 1967 on and 28+ years old rookies and found this....

 

HR

21 Garret Jones in only 358 PAs 2009

20 Ryan Schimpf in only 330 PAs in 2016

20 Orestes Destrade in 637 in 1993

 

At 27...

37 Abreu in 2014

26 Willingham in 2006

23 Justin Bour in 2015

21 Brian Daubauch in 1999 (only 420 PAs)

 

It's rarer than I thought.

 

Natick to NC First Round Pick

Natick to NC

Verified Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
Why does Bryce have to fit in a bubble ? Why can't he succeed given his hit tool? I'm sorry I've watched this kid turn around damn good pitching.I believe he has 5 years atleast in him and wouldn't be shocked if he rakes in Oakland or somewhere else .I wouldn't just DFA this player I would package him to the As or elsewhere ....Bryce Brentz has figured somethings out late but he did it and to not even acknowledge that is sad .The truth is Holt should be DFA already .Holt looks like Matt Damon ,for that alone he should be shipped out for a bucket of slim jims I'm kidding about Holt ...great guy but time to go . Edited by Natick to NC

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