2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[notin]

Of those, I would choose Brentz and Swihart. Castillo's salary gets in the way.

 

Castillo is certainly the safest of the bunch, at l;east per the defensive metrics on his limited play. But the salary is a huge issue, otherwise he might be the fourth outfielder this year.

 

The Dodgers could certainly use him, but would they insist on sending back Kemp? That could be a deal breaker for me...

[Bellhorn04]

With the Klller B's, the Sox don't anticipate needing outfielders for a couple seasons. So it looks like most of their prospects are further down...

 

Although JBJ seems like a realistic candidate to be traded at some point.

[mvp 78]

And Brentz and Barfield are probably more problem than solution in that department.

 

How so?

[notin]

How so?

 

 

Brentz is a 29yo with 5 years in AAA and is a DFA candidate. Barfield is a 29yo minor league journeyman whose not even on the 40 man roster. If these are the best power hitting prospects we have, that is a big problem.

 

(They aren't. Chavis is.)

[notin]

Although JBJ seems like a realistic candidate to be traded at some point.

 

Certainly possible.

 

Although that they kept him when offered Puig does speak as to what they think of his value...

[mvp 78]

Brentz is a 29yo with 5 years in AAA and is a DFA candidate. Barfield is a 29yo minor league journeyman whose not even on the 40 man roster. If these are the best power hitting prospects we have, that is a big problem.

 

(They aren't. Chavis is.)

 

But how are THEY a problem?

[notin]

But how are THEY a problem?

 

They're not the problem per se. That they are among the best we have is the problem, and they are certainly not the solution...

[mvp 78]

They're not the problem per se. That they are among the best we have is the problem, and they are certainly not the solution...

 

I see. That makes more sense to me.

[moonslav59]

Nunez's 38-game sample with the Red Sox last year probably is not representative.

 

Of course, but his recent 3 year 106 wRC+ pulls a lot more weight than his career number and ZIP projections to me.

[moonslav59]

Although JBJ seems like a realistic candidate to be traded at some point.

 

We could sign JD, then watch HRam catch on fire and decide to trade JBJ mid season.

[OH FOY]

Don't need JD, Sox can easily get the 40 HRS, from good seasons from Hanley, Bogey, and full season with Devers.

I expect 30+ HRS from Devers this year, not joking either. Made for Fenway, and that Power Swing for Left Field.

Edited February 16, 2018 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

Don't need JD, Sox can easily get the 40 HRS, from good seasons from Hanley, Bogey, and full season with Devers.

I expect 30+ HRS from Devers this year, not joking either. Made for Fenway, and that Power Swing for Left Field.

 

I'm expecing 40+ from Devers. I'm thinking .375/42/130.

[moonslav59]

I'm expecing 40+ from Devers. I'm thinking .375/42/130.

 

I wouldn't be surprised, but the kid is young and still a bit raw. He may need a few stretches of adjustment and counter adjustment along the way.

 

[OH FOY]

Here's another place where we lost Powah, Hernandez, Lin, Rutledge, Marrero, and Holt had 502 at bats and had a total of 4 HRS. Nunez, had 165 at bats and had 8 HRS, this should help a bit. Has nice swing for Fenway.

[moonslav59]

Here's another place where we lost Powah, Hernandez, Lin, Rutledge, Marrero, and Holt had 502 at bats and had a total of 4 HRS. Nunez, had 165 at bats and had 8 HRS, this should help a bit. Has nice swing for Fenway.

 

Yes, and we should also see more PAs from Devers than Pablo's 4 in 108 PAs and some of the guys you mentioned with Nunez.

 

Also, say bye-bye to these guys....

 

Chris Young 7 in 276

Rajai Davis 0 in 38 PAs

Steve Selsky 0 in 9

 

and likely see less PAs from...

 

Sandy Leon 7 in 301 (more than Vaz but almost 100 point lower OPS)

Pedey 7 in 463

 

On the pitching side, we lose...

 

90.1 Fister 4.88

43.2 Abad 3.30

41.1 Boyer 4.35

27.0 Reed 3.33

9.0 RRoss 7.00

8.1 Kendrick 12.96

 

That's over 210 IP, some good, but some not so good.

 

Maybe less from ERod (4.19) & Hembree (3.63).

 

Maybe more from Smith, Thornburg, Workman, Scott, Maddox and Johnson/Velazquez.

 

[cp176]

Brentz and Barfield may not be answers to a power shortage but when you need power and they have hit for power considering them a problem is just ridiculous. I'll disagree with anyone when they start preaching that 29 and 30 year olds are old. If they are outhitting younger players, maybe they have earned the job. it isn't about age. It is about production.

[harmony]

I'm expecing 40+ from Devers. I'm thinking .375/42/130.

Bill James and PECIOTA project Rafael Devers with 30 home runs (the former in 571 at-bats and the latter behind a pay wall that shields projected plate appearances).

 

Marcel projects Devers with 13 home runs in 320 plate appearances, FanGraphs Depth Charts 21 home runs in 574 plate appearances, Steamer 19 home runs in 514 plate appearances and ZiPS 27 home runs in 611 plate appearances.

[notin]

Brentz and Barfield may not be answers to a power shortage but when you need power and they have hit for power considering them a problem is just ridiculous. I'll disagree with anyone when they start preaching that 29 and 30 year olds are old. If they are outhitting younger players, maybe they have earned the job. it isn't about age. It is about production.

 

Well, yes and no.

 

If they are the best options (which they are not; Chavis is.) They might get a shot.

 

But someone has to go to make room for Nunez. Probably Marrero. If the Sox ign Martinez or LoMo, someone else hasto go. Barfield won't be the guy, since he isn't on the 40-man. But Brentz is a strong candidate. At which point his power is irrelevant.

 

If you think they need Brentz, who else do you think should go? Bear in mind, options are an important part of it, since Brentz is either in Boston or gone. The same thing cannot be said about Holt or Hernandez or Lin or many of the pitchers on the 40-man.

 

And since Barfield isn't on the 40-man roster, who do you think should go to accommodate him when he is needed?

Edited February 16, 2018 by notin

[sk7326]

I thought Nunez was the best Red Sox hitter last year before the injury. He is definely a plus for the team, if healthy.

 

He is a contact hitter - and if it's hard it works ... but he has little history of power and he doesn't walk. He is not good defensively - but has value because he can play a bunch of positions.

[notin]

He is a contact hitter - and if it's hard it works ... but he has little history of power and he doesn't walk. He is not good defensively - but has value because he can play a bunch of positions.

 

And he was fun as hell last year...

[moonslav59]

Well, yes and no.

 

If they are the best options (which they are not; Chavis is.) They might get a shot.

 

But someone has to go to make room for Nunez. Probably Marrero. If the Sox ign Martinez or LoMo, someone else hasto go. Barfield won't be the guy, since he isn't on the 40-man. But Brentz is a strong candidate. At which point his power is irrelevant.

 

If you think they need Brentz, who else do you think should go? Bear in mind, options are an important part of it, since Brentz is either in Boston or gone. The same thing cannot be said about Holt or Hernandez or Lin or many of the pitchers on the 40-man...

 

I've always agreed with you on Brentz. He's a long shot, at best.

 

However, even if we sign JD, we have very little OF depth, especially, if Nunez is needed at 2B, 3B or SS. The 40 man roster has just 4 OF'ers right now: Betts, Beni, JBj and Brentz. Yes, Holt, Swihart, Lin and maybe a couple others can play in the OF, but we really only have 4 legitimate OF'ers.

 

If we sign JD, we might DFA or trade Holt, Swihart, Jerez or Elias and keep Bryce.

 

(Again, I'd be fine with trading or DFA'ing Brentz.)

[cp176]

Well, yes and no.

 

If they are the best options (which they are not; Chavis is.) They might get a shot.

 

But someone has to go to make room for Nunez. Probably Marrero. If the Sox ign Martinez or LoMo, someone else hasto go. Barfield won't be the guy, since he isn't on the 40-man. But Brentz is a strong candidate. At which point his power is irrelevant.

 

If you think they need Brentz, who else do you think should go? Bear in mind, options are an important part of it, since Brentz is either in Boston or gone. The same thing cannot be said about Holt or Hernandez or Lin or many of the pitchers on the 40-man...

 

I'm really not advocating for either one of them. The point that I am making is that if you have a needed skill - such as the ability to whack the ball out of the park - an organization is not going to hurry to let you go. Brentz very well might fall victim to the numbers game based on who gets signed. There was a time that I truly felt that Marrero was our ss of the future - not now. He has really shown very little at the plate. If Brentz is kept, obviously he is going to get his chance. 29 or 30 is not a factor if either one of these two guys hits for power better than anyone else that we have in the minors. I really don't know who the best option is. I don't think anyone should be saying that Chavis is for sure a better option at this point than either Brentz or Barfileld. Barfield was invited to camp this spring for a reason. The Red Sox don't really know how or if he fits but they at least want to see if his vision and his ability to hit big time are for real.

[cp176]

I'll also add that if Brentz is released it should be obvious that someone is going to grab him quickly. I would not be surprised at all if he becomes a productive ml hitter with plenty of pop. I will be pulling for him to finally get a real chance with either us or more likely someone else.

[notin]

I've always agreed with you on Brentz. He's a long shot, at best.

 

However, even if we sign JD, we have very little OF depth, especially, if Nunez is needed at 2B, 3B or SS. The 40 man roster has just 4 OF'ers right now: Betts, Beni, JBj and Brentz. Yes, Holt, Swihart, Lin and maybe a couple others can play in the OF, but we really only have 4 legitimate OF'ers.

 

If we sign JD, we might DFA or trade Holt, Swihart, Jerez or Elias and keep Bryce.

 

(Again, I'd be fine with trading or DFA'ing Brentz.)

 

 

Elias might be one guy. But OTOH, maybe the feeling is we need LHRP. At the very least, pitching is one area where there is no such thing as too much depth.

 

Trades are possible, but the easiest way to get room is simply DFA someone...

[cp176]

I agree with this.

 

I'm on your wave length most of the time and that should make you nervous since I am an old guy not getting younger. Which could only mean ...

[moonslav59]

He is a contact hitter - and if it's hard it works ... but he has little history of power and he doesn't walk. He is not good defensively - but has value because he can play a bunch of positions.

 

Nunez is certainly no power hitter, but look here....

 

2015-2017

 

ISO

.147 Nunez

.128 Bogey

.127 Pedey

.100 Holt

 

SLG

.457 HRam

.456 JBJ

.449 Moreland

.443 Nunez

.443 Morrison

.430 Pedey

.424 Bogey

.359 Holt (only 15 MLB have more PAs and a lower SLG% than Holt)

 

 

 

[notin]

I'm really not advocating for either one of them. The point that I am making is that if you have a needed skill - such as the ability to whack the ball out of the park - an organization is not going to hurry to let you go. Brentz very well might fall victim to the numbers game based on who gets signed. There was a time that I truly felt that Marrero was our ss of the future - not now. He has really shown very little at the plate. If Brentz is kept, obviously he is going to get his chance. 29 or 30 is not a factor if either one of these two guys hits for power better than anyone else that we have in the minors. I really don't know who the best option is. I don't think anyone should be saying that Chavis is for sure a better option at this point than either Brentz or Barfileld. Barfield was invited to camp this spring for a reason. The Red Sox don't really know how or if he fits but they at least want to see if his vision and his ability to hit big time are for real.

 

Bear in mind Brentz and Barfield have a skill of hitting minor league pitching out of the park. And both of them took a long time to develop that skill. The jump to MLB is much more difficult, and if they take as long to learn to hit MLB pitching as both did to learn to hit AAA pitching (a skill Barfield still doesn't have), both will be in their mid-30's.

 

These are two ships that have sailed. Barfield might be invited to camp, but his chances of making the team are not much better than mine...

[moonslav59]

I'll also add that if Brentz is released it should be obvious that someone is going to grab him quickly. I would not be surprised at all if he becomes a productive ml hitter with plenty of pop. I will be pulling for him to finally get a real chance with either us or more likely someone else.

 

My guess is he'd go to Oakland and hit 21 Hrs in 375 PAs (mostly on the road).

[moonslav59]

Bear in mind Brentz and Barfield have a skill of hitting minor league pitching out of the park. And both of them took a long time to develop that skill. The jump to MLB is much more difficult, and if they take as long to learn to hit MLB pitching as both did to learn to hit AAA pitching (a skill Barfield still doesn't have), both will be in their mid-30's.

 

These are two ships that have sailed. Barfield might be invited to camp, but his chances of making the team are not much better than mine...

 

Has any 28-29 year old ever been in the minors at those ages and gone on to hit 25+ HRs in the bigs?

 

Second question, how rare is it?

[notin]

I'll also add that if Brentz is released it should be obvious that someone is going to grab him quickly. I would not be surprised at all if he becomes a productive ml hitter with plenty of pop. I will be pulling for him to finally get a real chance with either us or more likely someone else.

 

He might not be grabbed so quickly, since he has no options left. He will possibly et a minor league deal, but considering there are still better outfielders on the market, it might not be as quick as you think.

 

I'd also bet against him as a productive hitter, outside of maybe a little BABIP-fueled hot streak, which will be followed by prolonged unproductivity... (Is that a word?)