2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[mvp 78]

I guess I'm going on the possible wrong assumption that if DD thinks Holt is worth $2M, so will some other GM.

 

(I know I might be wrong, as I thought we overpaid for him.)

 

According to fangraphs, he was worth $37M for 2014 - 2015.

[Bellhorn04]

So since DD's off-season so far has been to re-sign Nunez and Moreland, can we assume Fernando Abad is next?

 

I was thinking Blaine Boyer.

[mvp 78]

So since DD's off-season so far has been to re-sign Nunez and Moreland, can we assume Fernando Abad is next?

 

Wouldn't be a terrible move. 636 OPS vs LHB. He was decent last year.

[mvp 78]

I was thinking Blaine Boyer.

 

Signed with the Royals.

[notin]

I'm not saying you'd get anything substantial for either of them, but you could help fill out your AA roster. Crappy players get traded all the time. I think Marrero would be very useful to an NL team that needs a backup IF with a good glove. Holt was a 2 win player in 14 and 15. He's a good buy low candidate for a team that has room for him.

 

I like Marrero and think he could have been useful in Boston if they needed a utility infielder. But if I was a GM and needed one, I probably have a similar player already in my organization. And if I wanted Marrero, I know he is definitely going to get DFA'd at some point this off-season, if not this week when Nunez signs, then very likely when the Sox sign Martinez or Morrison or whoever. No rush to trade for him. At the very least, I would wait and see if he gets DFA'd to make room for Nunez.

 

The downside to trading for (or claiming) Marrero is then he has to be on the 25 man roster. However, if he clears waivers, he is free to sign a minor league free agent deal, giving his new team a little more roster freedom...

[notin]

Wouldn't be a terrible move. 636 OPS vs LHB. He was decent last year.

 

Not a terrible move. Just a terribly unimaginative one...

[notin]

According to fangraphs, he was worth $37M for 2014 - 2015.

 

But as he wasn't a free agent, that's not a fair comparison...

[mvp 78]

Not a terrible move. Just a terribly unimaginative one...

 

Signing JDM isn't very imaginative either.

[mvp 78]

But as he wasn't a free agent, that's not a fair comparison...

 

It's a fine comparison. Moon said he wasn't worth $2M. He was clearly worth well more than that at one point. If he's gotten past his vertigo/concussion issues, he could be a solid get.

[notin]

It's a fine comparison. Moon said he wasn't worth $2M. He was clearly worth well more than that at one point. If he's gotten past his vertigo/concussion issues, he could be a solid get.

 

But is he worth the gamble that hr is over them? We've all seen vertigo (Esasky) and concussions (Bay, Morneau) derail careers before.

 

Sure some GM might want him, but for what?

[sk7326]

i wonder if this is a sign they decided to move on from martinez?

 

 

i can't understand why they didnt do this long ago.

 

Not at all - Nunez did not have a hot market because he's not a starter. I mean, his value is almost entirely in BABIP ... and he can play a bunch of positions. (none of them well, but for a utility bench guy, this is not a problem) Signing him is a good move. In the land of 12-13 man pitching staffs, you need your bench players to be super versatile positionally.

[harmony]

How about wRC+ from 2015-2017:

109 Morrison, JBJ

107 Bogey

106 Nunez, HRam

100 Moreland

88 Holt

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Eduardo Nunez with a 2018 wRC+ of 102:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6848&position=3B/SS

 

... while ZiPS is bearish with a projected 2018 wRC+ of 93:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

Nunez's 38-game sample with the Red Sox last year probably is not representative.

[sk7326]

Basically you look at the position players entering the season:

 

Starters: Vasquez, Moreland, Nunez, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Ramirez

Bench Catcher: Leon

 

So if you start with a 12 or 13 man pitching staff ... you are basically down to 2 or 3 players. If we assume a FA signing of some kind (JD, Lomo, whomever) that gets you down to 1 or 2.

 

So you are looking at, what Brentz, Holt, Castillo, Swihart for 2 spots maybe?

[notin]

Basically you look at the position players entering the season:

 

Starters: Vasquez, Moreland, Nunez, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Ramirez

Bench Catcher: Leon

 

So if you start with a 12 or 13 man pitching staff ... you are basically down to 2 or 3 players. If we assume a FA signing of some kind (JD, Lomo, whomever) that gets you down to 1 or 2.

 

So you are looking at, what Brentz, Holt, Castillo, Swihart for 2 spots maybe?

 

The Sox have been running with a 4 man bench for a couple seasons now.

 

If they do sign LoMo or JD, that puts Hanley on the bench. Leon grabs a second, as you said. The last two spots are from the cast of Brentz, Marrero, Holt, Heranadez, and Swihart.

 

Now if the Sox do sign LoMo/JD, two players will have to be DFA'd or placed on the 60 day DL. Very likely Brentz and Marrero are those two players (or Hanley, but that seems lees likely and less wise). That leaves the last two bench spots to Swihart (out of options) and eith Holt or Hernandez, both of whom have options. I do expect Holt to be that last guy...

[cp176]

I'd DFA Brentz first but it will probably be Marrero.

 

Of course if Martinez ever signs or the Sox get someone else, the other one (Brentz?) will get DFA'd then...

 

I really don't think that the Sox can afford to allow any potential power hitters to get away. That would include Bryce Brentz as well as a very interesting Jeremy Barfield

[sk7326]

The Sox have been running with a 4 man bench for a couple seasons now.

 

If they do sign LoMo or JD, that puts Hanley on the bench. Leon grabs a second, as you said. The last two spots are from the cast of Brentz, Marrero, Holt, Heranadez, and Swihart.

 

Now if the Sox do sign LoMo/JD, two players will have to be DFA'd or placed on the 60 day DL. Very likely Brentz and Marrero are those two players (or Hanley, but that seems lees likely and less wise). That leaves the last two bench spots to Swihart (out of options) and eith Holt or Hernandez, both of whom have options. I do expect Holt to be that last guy...

 

I could see that as a steady state ... (11 pitchers). But will they break camp that way or start with 12?

[notin]

I really don't think that the Sox can afford to allow any potential power hitters to get away. That would include Bryce Brentz as well as a very interesting Jeremy Barfield

 

Guys like Brentz and Barfield can be found in any organization at any time. Both of these guys turn 30 during or right after the season. "Potential" is not really a good way to describe them any more. Brentz is only like 15 months younger than JD Martinez (and only a few days younger than Porcello). Barfield is less than a year younger than Martinez. They have reached the limits of their potential.

 

Both guys made it all the way to AAA. That's no small accomplishment, despite it never being recognized as such. But that is probably about it for them, save maybe catching on as a bench player somewhere...

[notin]

I could see that as a steady state ... (11 pitchers). But will they break camp that way or start with 12?

 

Despite the off/on nature of the typical April schedule, I think 12. 5 starters, with limited starts from Wright. And 7 relievers.

[mvp 78]

I really don't think that the Sox can afford to allow any potential power hitters to get away. That would include Bryce Brentz as well as a very interesting Jeremy Barfield

 

I agree with this.

[mvp 78]

Guys like Brentz and Barfield can be found in any organization at any time. Both of these guys turn 30 during or right after the season. "Potential" is not really a good way to describe them any more. Brentz is only like 15 months younger than JD Martinez (and only a few days younger than Porcello). Barfield is less than a year younger than Martinez. They have reached the limits of their potential.

 

Both guys made it all the way to AAA. That's no small accomplishment, despite it never being recognized as such. But that is probably about it for them, save maybe catching on as a bench player somewhere...

 

You can say that, but the Sox have struggled to develop power recently.

[cp176]

Guys like Brentz and Barfield can be found in any organization at any time. Both of these guys turn 30 during or right after the season. "Potential" is not really a good way to describe them any more. Brentz is only like 15 months younger than JD Martinez (and only a few days younger than Porcello). Barfield is less than a year younger than Martinez. They have reached the limits of their potential.

 

Both guys made it all the way to AAA. That's no small accomplishment, despite it never being recognized as such. But that is probably about it for them, save maybe catching on as a bench player somewhere...

 

In Brentz's case I would lean toward agreement with you but no way would I with respect to Barfield. I do not agree with you at all with respect to him. I also would be kind of surprised if every organization could point to two guys who enjoyed that kind of power success last year. It is the common sense logical route to say that they are both too old and have already reached their potential limits. Every now and then, someone throws a wrench into the works. The Red Sox certainly haven't given up on Barfield.

[mvp 78]

The Sox have been running with a 4 man bench for a couple seasons now.

 

If they do sign LoMo or JD, that puts Hanley on the bench. Leon grabs a second, as you said. The last two spots are from the cast of Brentz, Marrero, Holt, Heranadez, and Swihart.

 

Now if the Sox do sign LoMo/JD, two players will have to be DFA'd or placed on the 60 day DL. Very likely Brentz and Marrero are those two players (or Hanley, but that seems lees likely and less wise). That leaves the last two bench spots to Swihart (out of options) and eith Holt or Hernandez, both of whom have options. I do expect Holt to be that last guy...

 

Less wise to save $20M next year?

[oldtimer]

Not at all - Nunez did not have a hot market because he's not a starter. I mean, his value is almost entirely in BABIP ... and he can play a bunch of positions. (none of them well, but for a utility bench guy, this is not a problem) Signing him is a good move. In the land of 12-13 man pitching staffs, you need your bench players to be super versatile positionally.

 

I thought Nunez was the best Red Sox hitter last year before the injury. He is definely a plus for the team, if healthy.

[notin]

You can say that, but the Sox have struggled to develop power recently.

 

And Brentz and Barfield are probably more problem than solution in that department.

 

The primary reason that they have struggled to develop power is the drafting strategy of taking "up the middle" players in the early rounds. You get more MLB players that way, but not necessarily the same level of impact. But no arguing that it did bring about a lot of success for the team...

[oldtimer]

Basically you look at the position players entering the season:

 

Starters: Vasquez, Moreland, Nunez, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Ramirez

Bench Catcher: Leon

 

So if you start with a 12 or 13 man pitching staff ... you are basically down to 2 or 3 players. If we assume a FA signing of some kind (JD, Lomo, whomever) that gets you down to 1 or 2.

 

So you are looking at, what Brentz, Holt, Castillo, Swihart for 2 spots maybe?

 

Of those, I would choose Brentz and Swihart. Castillo's salary gets in the way.

[oldtimer]

The Sox have been running with a 4 man bench for a couple seasons now.

 

If they do sign LoMo or JD, that puts Hanley on the bench. Leon grabs a second, as you said. The last two spots are from the cast of Brentz, Marrero, Holt, Heranadez, and Swihart.

 

Now if the Sox do sign LoMo/JD, two players will have to be DFA'd or placed on the 60 day DL. Very likely Brentz and Marrero are those two players (or Hanley, but that seems lees likely and less wise). That leaves the last two bench spots to Swihart (out of options) and eith Holt or Hernandez, both of whom have options. I do expect Holt to be that last guy...

 

If Swihart can catch and hit, then Leon may go mid season. Some team always needs a good defensive catcher.

[oldtimer]

And Brentz and Barfield are probably more problem than solution in that department.

 

The primary reason that they have struggled to develop power is the drafting strategy of taking "up the middle" players in the early rounds. You get more MLB players that way, but not necessarily the same level of impact. But no arguing that it did bring about a lot of success for the team...

 

They have Brannen in the wings as a possible replacement for JBJ. The fielding is there but the hitting willl be a question mark as for any very young player.

[notin]

In Brentz's case I would lean toward agreement with you but no way would I with respect to Barfield. I do not agree with you at all with respect to him. I also would be kind of surprised if every organization could point to two guys who enjoyed that kind of power success last year. It is the common sense logical route to say that they are both too old and have already reached their potential limits. Every now and then, someone throws a wrench into the works. The Red Sox certainly haven't given up on Barfield.

 

 

The So haven't given up on Barfield because he was willing to sign a minor league deal for low money and because, with Benintendi, Betts and Bradley, the Sox do not anticipate the need for any new outfielders for a few years. So they can dedicate the upper minors to organizational fillers rather that player development at that position. If the Sox needed a corner OF and had a prospect working his way up, they would bench Barfield to play him in a second.

 

He did hit 27 HR's at age 29 last year in a league where the average was was like 22 years old. He's not a power prospect. Or any type of prospect. He's not only not on the 40-man roster, it would take a score of injuries to get him there.

 

At this point in his life, Jeremy Barfield is probably playing because he loves the game and, as he is from a baseball family (dad Jesse had a good career in Toronto and brother Josh reached the majors in SD), it's really what he knows best. Good for him. But his future is very limited, and he does know it (hence his joke on Twitter about the Sox not getting Otani not mattering, since they still had him)...

[notin]

They have Brannen in the wings as a possible replacement for JBJ. The fielding is there but the hitting willl be a question mark as for any very young player.

 

With the Klller B's, the Sox don't anticipate needing outfielders for a couple seasons. So it looks like most of their prospects are further down...

[notin]

If Swihart can catch and hit, then Leon may go mid season. Some team always needs a good defensive catcher.

 

That is possible, but certainly not immediate. By mid-season there could be several new faces on the roster