2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[notin]

what is that?

 

A player who goes off just before free agency. ..

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s a contract year hero, but either way.

 

The sox are at $207 mil. They don’t like the market for Bradley, especially since he’s been on the market since late November and no deals were made. JD essentially finishes the offseason if you get him as no team will go over the final threshold. Boras is effectively eliminating contingency plans as one by one, they are signing and he’s still waiting. The sox need a bat at DH, either someone to platoon with Hanley or someone to supplant Hanley. I wonder how long DD waits before he signs either LoMo or Duda and walks away?

[Jack Flap]

It’s a contract year hero, but either way.

 

The sox are at $207 mil. They don’t like the market for Bradley, especially since he’s been on the market since late November and no deals were made. JD essentially finishes the offseason if you get him as no team will go over the final threshold. Boras is effectively eliminating contingency plans as one by one, they are signing and he’s still waiting. The sox need a bat at DH, either someone to platoon with Hanley or someone to supplant Hanley. I wonder how long DD waits before he signs either LoMo or Duda and walks away?

 

It may be true that the market for Jackie isn't great (all the more reason to keep him, IMO), but I don't know why we'd pull the trigger on a trade without a deal for Martinez or another outfield replacement in place.

 

I'd be okay with Morrison/Duda if the price for JDM remains unreasonable...and then hopefully spending some of the $150 million or so we just saved on pitching.

[Jack Flap]

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/84917/what-moves-should-mlbs-super-seven-teams-make-next

 

David Schoenfield is speaking my language here:

 

What they should do next: Bringing back Moreland isn’t the sexy move, but I’d much rather have him at two years and $13 million than Eric Hosmer at $160 million. Consider the past three seasons:

 

Moreland: .252/.319/.449, 4.9 WAR

 

Hosmer: .294/.359/.463, 8.7 WAR

 

Moreland isn’t as good as Hosmer, but Hosmer isn’t so much better that the asking price warrants signing him. That leaves the Red Sox still needing a big bat, and it seems inevitable that J.D. Martinez ends up in Boston. I would not, however, trade Jackie Bradley Jr. to clear room in left field by shifting Andrew Benintendi to center. Between Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez, Moreland and Hanley Ramirez, there are plenty of at-bats to go around as you rotate six players into five positions. Plus, considering that Ramirez has been below average with the bat two of the past three seasons, he might not warrant regular playing time anyway.

[Kimmi]

The fangraph's value page is highly skeptical.

 

Longoria signed for long term security at a discount rate.

 

Skeptical how? Deals like Longoria's are not included in the calculation. The dollar amount per WAR is an accurate calculation of how much teams spent in free agency on each marginal win, that is, each win above replacement.

[Kimmi]

It remains to be seen if it can continue to be done indefinitely. There have been changes that have been geared to create more and more parity.

 

The only possible advantages a team can have are money and smarts. We've got the money. We took a big hit in the smarts department when Theo left. I'm interested to see if he can keep the Cubs a contender for a long time, especially as his core of Bryant and Rizzo get more expensive.

 

Well, I don't think it can continue to be done without a strong farm system. Regardless of the large payroll, the farm system is the biggest key. You have to have those cost controlled players and you have to have ways to fill some of the holes through trade. And no, that doesn't mean making a trade like the Kimbrel trade.

[Kimmi]

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/84917/what-moves-should-mlbs-super-seven-teams-make-next

 

David Schoenfield is speaking my language here:

 

He is speaking my language too. The 'sexy' moves are usually the ones that wind up getting a team in trouble.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, I don't think it can continue to be done without a strong farm system. Regardless of the large payroll, the farm system is the biggest key. You have to have those cost controlled players and you have to have ways to fill some of the holes through trade. And no, that doesn't mean making a trade like the Kimbrel trade.

 

I was speaking in general terms about whether ANY team can have continuous contenders under the system as it is now. That's why I was pointing to Theo's Cubs.

[Hitch]

He is speaking my language too. The 'sexy' moves are usually the ones that wind up getting a team in trouble.

 

Me three. I like the Moreland move.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't hate the Moreland move, but I can't get overly excited about bringing back a guy with a 0.9 fWAR.

[Kimmi]

I don't hate the Moreland move, but I can't get overly excited about bringing back a guy with a 0.9 fWAR.

 

He is projected to be a 1.5 WAR player this year. At $6.5 million, that's bang for your buck!

[Kimmi]

I don't hate the Moreland move, but I can't get overly excited about bringing back a guy with a 0.9 fWAR.

 

But seriously, Morleand put up very good numbers before he broke his toe. I think a platoon with him and Hanley at 1B could work out really well.

[moonslav59]

But seriously, Morleand put up very good numbers before he broke his toe. I think a platoon with him and Hanley at 1B could work out really well.

 

Certainly, there is hope he can put together a full season of how he was doing before the toe injury.

 

Certainly, Moreland is a bargain when compared to Hosmer and even Santana, Alonso and likely Morrison.

 

If we still end up signing JD Martinez, I'm more than fine with the signing, especially, if we don't trade JBJ, so JD can play LF.

 

I still would have preferred to have JD at DH and start the season with HRam (with Swihart or Travis as the back-up) and see if the old HRam can return. If not, finding a decent 1Bman anytime during the season is one of the easiest things to do.

[moonslav59]

But seriously, Morleand put up very good numbers before he broke his toe. I think a platoon with him and Hanley at 1B could work out really well.

 

By cherry-picking the best dates to make Moreland look better, he had an OPS of...

 

.877 on June 13 (61 game sample size)

.853 on June 27th (after 71 games)

 

He was at .799 after 81 games.

 

His lowest point was .726 on July 29th.

 

What worries me about the toe thing is this, after he got better, he got back up to .793 on August 30th, but then fell back down to .751 before settling at .769 for the season.

 

I was hoping for more than even .848 from our 1Bman next year, but maybe I'm in the minority. Expecting better than .800 from Moreland is, to me, wishful thinking. Sure, he can do it, but what are the odds?

 

[mvp 78]

It's my understanding that the FanGraphs dollar values are based on free agent salaries and WAR's. As a result the dollar values seem inflated. Right now it's something like $7 million per 1 WAR. It has a lot to do with how many free agents have been expensive busts.

 

I think it would be better for them to cap the top salary at something like $40M and adjust all WAR $ values from there. If the best player was 8 WAR, you'd give 5M for 1 WAR. That way, you wouldn't have Judge showing a value of $66M. I just don't think the market could bear a $60M salary right now. When your output is that screwy, fix your equation.

[OH FOY]

Power to your home Park is important, last year, Ramirez, Bogaerts, and JBJ hit a total of 20 HRS in combining 208 games played in Fenway. That's a problem. Especially in a hitters Park like Fenway. Edited December 21, 2017 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

Power to your home Park is important, last year, Ramirez, Bogaerts, and JBJ hit a total of 20 HRS in combining 208 games played in Fenway. That's a problem. Especially in a hitters Park like Fenway.

 

Bogey was injured most of the season. He should be more like 2016 going forward when healthy. Hanley is a big question mark due to his ongoing shoulder injury. JBJ is just a guy who is has one very hot 30 day period each year and then hits worse the rest of the year.

[moonslav59]

Power to your home Park is important, last year, Ramirez, Bogaerts, and JBJ hit a total of 20 HRS in combining 208 games played in Fenway. That's a problem. Especially in a hitters Park like Fenway.

 

Fenway is not the HR park it used to be. It's a common misconception.

 

The team hit 95 away this year and just 73 at home. The players you listed hit 50% more HRs on the road (30 to 20).

 

Yearly Team HRs

 

'17 90H-73A

'16 102-104

'15 80-81

'14 49-74

'13 83-95

 

Change over

'12 88H-77A

 

'11 91H-112A

'10 98-113

 

Change over

'09 114H-98A

 

'08 79H-94A

'07 79-87

'06 83-109

'05 92-107

'04 111-111

'03 111-127

 

1986: 55 Home & 89 Away

 

1978: 94H & 78A

 

1975: 74H & 60A

 

[a700hitter]

Fenway is not the HR park it used to be. It's a common misconception.

 

The team hit 95 away this year and just 73 at home. The players you listed hit 50% more HRs on the road (30 to 20).

 

Yearly Team HRs

 

'17 90H-73A

'16 102-104

'15 80-81

'14 49-74

'13 83-95

 

Change over

'12 88H-77A

 

'11 91H-112A

'10 98-113

 

Change over

'09 114H-98A

 

'08 79H-94A

'07 79-87

'06 83-109

'05 92-107

'04 111-111

'03 111-127

 

1986: 55 Home & 89 Away

 

1978: 94H & 78A

 

1975: 74H & 60A

 

It is a doubles ballpark.

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s a screwy equation for sure. The other thing they don’t consider is the dichotomy between the $7 mil 1 WAR player and the $66 mil 8 WAR players and how contracts taper off. The bottom part of that WAR debate are all smashed together then there’s a significant bump from 2-3 WAR then a considerable market narrowing above that. Their calculation is based on a WAR to dollar average and it is effectively a straight line when actual dollar figures are more S shaped with similar salaries on the low and high end and a major rise in the middle

[moonslav59]

It is a doubles ballpark.

 

Yes! And several HRs are turned into doubles and at times, singles.

 

The occasional lofting flyball that finds the screen is not common enough to outweigh the height of the wall turning HRs into 2Bs.

 

The Pesky Poll does not outweigh the deep RF and R-CF. The tall wall in left-center field takes away HRs as well- both line drive and high fly balls.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fenway is an offensive ballpark. It became a launching pad when Theo got players who could pull it over the monster or lefties who could drive it over or off the monster the other way

[mvp 78]

Fenway is an offensive ballpark. It became a launching pad when Theo got players who could pull it over the monster or lefties who could drive it over or off the monster the other way

 

Yes, when the Sox got more home run hitters more home runs were hit at Fenway. Good analysis.

[OH FOY]

RHB in Fenway its a HR's Park always has been, LHB in Fenway its a Doubles Park. Dimensions didn't change. With Devers in the line-up, its a HR's Ballpark.

DiMaggio said he could hit 50 there if he played regularly.

Edited December 21, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Spudboy]

It is a doubles ballpark.

 

Exactly.

[OH FOY]

Sorry I put that wrong, he could add 15+ HR's in a season, if he played in Fenway.

[OH FOY]

If its a Doubles Ball Park, then DD is smart not going after Stanton.

[moonslav59]

Fenway is an offensive ballpark. It became a launching pad when Theo got players who could pull it over the monster or lefties who could drive it over or off the monster the other way

 

Actually, look at the Theo years:

 

2003-2011 HRs

 

Home: 858 (9th in MLB)

Away: 958 (1st in MLB)

 

How about just the "bash years?"

2003-2008

Home: 555 (10th in MLB)

Away: 635 (1st)

 

FYI: the Ben & DD show 2012-2017

Home: 475 (23rd)

Away: 528 (10th)

[moonslav59]

If its a Doubles Ball Park, then DD is smart not going after Stanton.

 

Stanton's HRs are high fly ball types, for the most part.

 

Plus, those away HRs are nice, too.

[OH FOY]

Bash years for me is when Rice and Company played. 78 team was a bash team.