2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Nick]

For last 25 years, Yankees have averaged 92.8 wins per season, finishing 1st 14 times including a stretch of 9 straight from 1998 to 2006. For the last five years, they've been un-Yankee like, coming in second twice and fourth place three times.

 

The point being not winning the Division for five years is their 'cliff' and Yankees are coming out of it, or it seems.

 

I'm still okay with where we sit. We are not going to out spend the Yanks on a regular basis. Their revenue stream is greater. How do we overcome the Yankees?

 

Our starters at the top still have the ability to succeed in the playoffs. Anytime you can pitch Sale and Price pitch twice in a 7 game series, I'll take my chances (what other choice do I have?). Pitching still wins championships.

 

Goal is to get into the playoffs.

[Nick]

Did I read somewhere that Martinez may not be a good fit for Fenway? He's more of an opposite field power bat? Only eight or so homers on a 'pull'?

Or was I having a bad dream with the knowledge that Yankees are making moves while 'desperate' Dave staying very calm? I think Kimmie approves new Dave.

[Kimmi]

For last 25 years, Yankees have averaged 92.8 wins per season, finishing 1st 14 times including a stretch of 9 straight from 1998 to 2006. For the last five years, they've been un-Yankee like, coming in second twice and fourth place three times.

 

The point being not winning the Division for five years is their 'cliff' and Yankees are coming out of it, or it seems.

 

I'm still okay with where we sit. We are not going to out spend the Yanks on a regular basis. Their revenue stream is greater. How do we overcome the Yankees?

 

Our starters at the top still have the ability to succeed in the playoffs. Anytime you can pitch Sale and Price pitch twice in a 7 game series, I'll take my chances (what other choice do I have?). Pitching still wins championships.

 

Goal is to get into the playoffs.

 

The Yankees right now look like the favorites for the division, though the games still have to be played. Regardless, we are still a favorite to make the playoffs, which as you said, is the goal.

 

I am not concerned with where we sit for this year.

[Kimmi]

Did I read somewhere that Martinez may not be a good fit for Fenway? He's more of an opposite field power bat? Only eight or so homers on a 'pull'?

Or was I having a bad dream with the knowledge that Yankees are making moves while 'desperate' Dave staying very calm? I think Kimmie approves new Dave.

 

Dave hasn't done anything yet, so there is nothing for me to approve of.

 

I will give him credit for not being impulsive in countering the Yankees move. I am disappointed that he did not pick up any of the Braves' prospects. We'll have to wait to see what happens during the remainder of the offseason to see if I approve.

[Bellhorn04]

Yankees sound like they’re about to get Gerrit Cole

 

The Sox are playing for a Wild Card spot this year.

[notin]

Dave hasn't done anything yet, so there is nothing for me to approve of.

 

Not even a minor league contract. The biggest move of the off-season has been the DFA of Henry Owens.

 

Is Dombrowski ok? Are people sure he isn't dead?

[notin]

The Sox are playing for a Wild Card spot this year.

 

The 2014 Red Sox were basically the same team that won the WSCmonths earlier. Yet 2014 wasn't a wild card season. ..

[Bellhorn04]

The 2014 Red Sox were basically the same team that won the WSCmonths earlier. Yet 2014 wasn't a wild card season. ..

 

Very informative and insightful, thanks...

[oldtimer]

Did I read somewhere that Martinez may not be a good fit for Fenway? He's more of an opposite field power bat? Only eight or so homers on a 'pull'?

Or was I having a bad dream with the knowledge that Yankees are making moves while 'desperate' Dave staying very calm? I think Kimmie approves new Dave.

 

Martinez and Hosmer both have Boras as an agent and he no doubt is delaying for the best offer. Trouble is that we really could be caught in a trap if we wait and other potential FA's or tradeable players get scooped up. DD has already signaled that JBJ is available for the right trade. Maybe we should just try to get Santana or a slightly lesser player and let Boras play his games with others. I don't believe Machado will be traded this year nor any of the other super players so lets go with a lower cost bat and look into the BP pitching instead.

[notin]

Very informative and insightful, thanks...

 

It is a cautionary tale about the status quo. ..

[sk7326]

For last 25 years, Yankees have averaged 92.8 wins per season, finishing 1st 14 times including a stretch of 9 straight from 1998 to 2006. For the last five years, they've been un-Yankee like, coming in second twice and fourth place three times.

 

The point being not winning the Division for five years is their 'cliff' and Yankees are coming out of it, or it seems.

 

I'm still okay with where we sit. We are not going to out spend the Yanks on a regular basis. Their revenue stream is greater. How do we overcome the Yankees?

 

Our starters at the top still have the ability to succeed in the playoffs. Anytime you can pitch Sale and Price pitch twice in a 7 game series, I'll take my chances (what other choice do I have?). Pitching still wins championships.

 

Goal is to get into the playoffs.

 

We will have enough payroll to field a contender every year - if we don't it is because management f'ed up. That includes 2018.

 

Pitching wins championships is both a great saying - and a peculiar one given the World Series which just ended.

[Jack Flap]

We haven't been active, but few teams have so far. If deals were going down while Dombrowski sat idle, that would be one thing, but other than Stanton and Ozuna (and there are reasons to doubt Boston acquiring either was realistic and/or a good fit) and maybe some relievers, what has happened that we should be disappointed we weren't in on? All of the major free agents remain unsigned. This offseason has been full of far more talk than action all-around. (Unfortunately, it just so happens that one of the big movers and shakers has been our hated rival, but I don't see that as reason to freak out.)

 

The "Desperate Dave" nickname really isn't aging well this offseason, and if anything we're seeing that the desperate ones are the fans and media types who start to get panicky when a few weeks pass without a big splash. Perhaps we should start calling him "Deliberate Dave" instead?...some might say "Dormant Dave," but I'm not fooled by the inactivity. We'll get the bat or two everyone is craving, and possibly more besides...but in good time.

[Jack Flap]

I wouldn't mind seeing us move quickly to land a Morrison or Duda type or even re-sign Moreland - someone who won't cost a ton and could split 1B/DH time with Hanley if necessary - then we can play the waiting game with Boras and JD with a bit less pressure. Guys like that are probably waiting for the bigger fish to set the market, though.

[sk7326]

I wouldn't mind seeing us move quickly to land a Morrison or Duda type or even re-sign Moreland - someone who won't cost a ton and could split 1B/DH time with Hanley if necessary - then we can play the waiting game with Boras and JD with a bit less pressure. Guys like that are probably waiting for the bigger fish to set the market, though.

 

It'd be nice - but guys like that want to play. Their agents are not going to steer them to a spot to end up in limbo. Better to wait and take a 1 year deal in TB or SD.

[Jack Flap]

It'd be nice - but guys like that want to play. Their agents are not going to steer them to a spot to end up in limbo. Better to wait and take a 1 year deal in TB or SD.

 

Good point.

[FredLynn]

The Sox are playing for a Wild Card spot this year.

 

Pretty funny. The season hasn't even started yet, let alone concluding the offseason with whoever DD manages to sign, and some of you guys are already surrendering the ALE to the Yankees. Kidding, a bit, of course. The Yankees do look strong, but a lot can happen. If somehow DD manages to sign both Hosmer AND Martinez AND Price comes back strong and healthy AND Porcello looks more like the 2016 version we will be competitive. Point being, its far too early to write off the season as wild card contenders.

[cp176]

We will have enough payroll to field a contender every year - if we don't it is because management f'ed up. That includes 2018.

 

Pitching wins championships is both a great saying - and a peculiar one given the World Series which just ended.

 

the absolute truth!!!

 

As for pitching wins championships - We all understand the value I hope of solid pitching and excellent defense especially up the middle.

Sadly, on here, many of us who have advocated for more power in the lineup get misunderstood I think. If you absolutely could only have one and not the other, I would be all for the best pitching and defense that I could gather. The truth of it is that there has to be a compromise - Great teams tend to have both. We are not talking about a limited franchise when talking about the Red Sox.

[FredLynn]

The Sox are playing for a Wild Card spot this year.

 

And BTW, Gerrit Cole had an ERA+ of 101 last year. Pretty average statistic. Unless he suddenly morphs into something more than he is, he is unlikely to have a major impact on the ALE.

[OH FOY]

You should use Free Agency to build a Farm. Not to build a Major League Team year after year. Dodgers and Yanks have spent, but their Farms are some of the best in talent.

Our number 1 weakness is consistent Pitching talent in the lower levels. We had to flip our Positional Talent, for this glaring weakness.

If I was Henry, I would re-evaluate the whole Scouting Dept. They do not produce, in the most important Position in baseball, Pitching, and it's costing him, money and Prospects.

We've only hit the Tip of the Iceberg with the Yankees, I made sure to go to both Double AA Teams games, last year to compare the Sox and Yanks talent. It's not even close. Yanks got some talent coming up, and what's worst, their A+ Team was evaluated as the best in the Minors, at their level. These young arms are coming, and the Sox wont have the answer.....except money, and the few good Prospects we have.

This is the problem, going forward. Money, is money, easy to spend, hard to produce talent.

[sk7326]

And BTW, Gerrit Cole had an ERA+ of 101 last year. Pretty average statistic. Unless he suddenly morphs into something more than he is, he is unlikely to have a major impact on the ALE.

 

And was one of the NL's best starters the other 3 years. He is coming off of an off-season, but his FIP numbers have been consistently very good. Yanks would be adding a pretty good quality #2.

[sk7326]

You should use Free Agency to build a Farm. Not to build a Major League Team year after year. Dodgers and Yanks have spent, but their Farms are some of the best in talent.

Our number 1 weakness is consistent Pitching talent in the lower levels. We had to flip our Positional Talent, for this glaring weakness.

If I was Henry, I would re-evaluate the whole Scouting Dept. They do not produce, in the most important Position in baseball, Pitching, and it's costing him, money and Prospects.

We've only hit the Tip of the Iceberg with the Yankees, I made sure to go to both Double AA Teams games, last year to compare the Sox and Yanks talent. It's not even close. Yanks got some talent coming up, and what's worst, their A+ Team was evaluated as the best in the Minors, at their level. These young arms are coming, and the Sox wont have the answer.....except money, and the few good Prospects we have.

This is the problem, going forward. Money, is money, easy to spend, hard to produce talent.

 

The farm system produced up the middle talent - which is harder to find than pitching. The team has dealt pitching at the lower levels consistently - which is a double edged sword. On one hand, you are right - it has created a vacuum of home grown pitching. On another - pitchers are so volatile, especially healthwise - that if you can trade them for high quality controllable talent it is hard to get too worked up about it.

 

The Red Sox system is in a down phase for a very good reason - because the system has been so ridiculously good at producing kids for the major league club. Every system faces this. Can the Red Sox back up the supply. They are trying. Flores was considered a coup on the international market until that horrible news. The system has lost some of its ceiling to the major league club. We'll see how it replenishes. No system produces an endless supply - if they are, then they are kind of squandering trade assets.

[cp176]

The farm system produced up the middle talent - which is harder to find than pitching. The team has dealt pitching at the lower levels consistently - which is a double edged sword. On one hand, you are right - it has created a vacuum of home grown pitching. On another - pitchers are so volatile, especially healthwise - that if you can trade them for high quality controllable talent it is hard to get too worked up about it.

 

The Red Sox system is in a down phase for a very good reason - because the system has been so ridiculously good at producing kids for the major league club. Every system faces this. Can the Red Sox back up the supply. They are trying. Flores was considered a coup on the international market until that horrible news. The system has lost some of its ceiling to the major league club. We'll see how it replenishes. No system produces an endless supply - if they are, then they are kind of squandering trade assets.

 

Flores was a really bright shining light. A great great tragedy.

 

The Red Sox have been very successful using the strategies that they have used for a very long time. I think that we have all bemoaned the lack of homegrown pitching but I think your comments about what has been done do help to clarify things a bit.

[harmony]

And BTW, Gerrit Cole had an ERA+ of 101 last year. Pretty average statistic. Unless he suddenly morphs into something more than he is, he is unlikely to have a major impact on the ALE.

To offer some perspective, Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects these 2018 WAR:

 

5.5 Chris Sale

3.8 Gerrit Cole

3.7 David Price

2.9 Rick Porcello

2.6 Drew Pomeranz

2.6 Eduardo Rodriguez

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=27&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

Only Sale, Cole and Porcello tossed 200+ innings this year; none of the others exceeded 175 innings.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

The Pirates and Yankees are discussing a trade that would send right-hander Gerrit Cole to the Bronx Bombers in exchange for a trade package that includes outfielder Clint Frazier, George A. King III of the New York Post reports.

 

Unreal. Must be nice having a nice farm in this day and age.

[Station 13]

C'mon Pirates, you could do better than Carrot Top in the deal.

[Emp9]

You should use Free Agency to build a Farm. Not to build a Major League Team year after year. Dodgers and Yanks have spent, but their Farms are some of the best in talent.

Our number 1 weakness is consistent Pitching talent in the lower levels. We had to flip our Positional Talent, for this glaring weakness.

If I was Henry, I would re-evaluate the whole Scouting Dept. They do not produce, in the most important Position in baseball, Pitching, and it's costing him, money and Prospects.

We've only hit the Tip of the Iceberg with the Yankees, I made sure to go to both Double AA Teams games, last year to compare the Sox and Yanks talent. It's not even close. Yanks got some talent coming up, and what's worst, their A+ Team was evaluated as the best in the Minors, at their level. These young arms are coming, and the Sox wont have the answer.....except money, and the few good Prospects we have.

This is the problem, going forward. Money, is money, easy to spend, hard to produce talent.

 

Sure our farm has been lopsided when it comes to Positional vs. Pitching. The Sox traded away a lot of prospect positional talent over the last few years, but they also held-on and promoted so much of that pool of prospect talent too. Our farm system got weaker for many reasons. It was going to get weaker no matter what eventually. As far as using positional player prospects as trade chips to net pitching... that's just how it's been for us. My view is that, at least in one area, we were good at drafting/(International) and developing. Could've been worse. We could've sucked in both areas of drafting and development. Our biggest obstacle was the market itself when we needed to trade for pitching. Otherwise, it's not really a bad thing. Look how many positions we've filled through our farm the last few years. 6...6 & 1/2? That's not bad. last offseason there were major Personnel and Scouting Dept. changes that we won't really see the results from right away. But I believe the organization is well aware of the past failures of drafting and developing pitching and some of those changes were made as an attempt to address this. In theory, flipping one strength for another team's strength isn't a bad thing... on top of that, it's a very common way to do business in MLB. Again, I think we got bit by a very thin, thus expensive, Pitching Market at a time when our biggest need was pitching. It sucks. But I do look forward to a more balanced farm system some day. Until then, we have to hope for a more balanced market for our biggest needs.

[Emp9]

MLBTR reports...

 

The Pirates and Yankees are discussing a trade that would send right-hander Gerrit Cole to the Bronx Bombers in exchange for a trade package that includes outfielder Clint Frazier, George A. King III of the New York Post reports.

 

Unreal. Must be nice having a nice farm in this day and age.

 

 

Basically. That's how I feel abut it too

[moonslav59]

And BTW, Gerrit Cole had an ERA+ of 101 last year. Pretty average statistic. Unless he suddenly morphs into something more than he is, he is unlikely to have a major impact on the ALE.

 

GMs do not look at just the most recent year numbers. Here are Cole's ERA- over recent years:

 

100 in 2017

95 in 2016

68 in 2015

 

He has the 16th best SP'er WAR over 3 years at 11.1 (tied with Keuchel and ahead of Cueto, Syndergaard & Tanaka)

 

15th in FIP at 3.35

 

He placed 32nd in ERA- at 86

 

[Bellhorn04]

Santana to Phillies - 3 years, $60 million.

[Carpin]

Santana to Phillies - 3 years, $60 million.

 

Another one off the table

 

I believe this will be the trigger for the rest of the FA, they should start signing soon