Countdown to the Playoffs - 2017 Edition

[oldtimer]

The Rangers put up a good fight but were unable to solve the Yankee pitching today. We have to help ourselves tonight.

[OH FOY]

17 in a row by Cleveland. Only 2 behind in loss Column to Houston.

[Maxbialystock]

The Rangers put up a good fight but were unable to solve the Yankee pitching today. We have to help ourselves tonight.

 

Guardians unreal right now. Helping ourselves vs. the Yankees is made better by the last 3 games and Sale tonight. As Kimmi keeps reminding us--we are in charge of our destiny and lately it looks like the pieces might be coming back together. Or as moonslav says, don't forget that 16-4 streak in August.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, I'm surprised.

 

Just because our base running has netted us one win, we might have been +3 or 4 without running blunders alone.

 

-3 + 4 = +1

 

I get all that. I'm just trying to point out that our baserunning isn't as bad as some think it is. People have talked about how we lead baseball in OOBs by a fair margin, then assume from that point that we are one of the worse baserunning teams in baseball or that our baserunning has done more harm than good, neither of which is correct.

 

It's similar to looking at the number of errors that a player has and making a judgment on the overall defense of that player. It doesn't work like that.

[Kimmi]

That's one game, and you never know what might have happened, if just one thing changes in a game.

 

Nobody can prove we have lost a game or not lost a game based on conjecture or "what ifs" something different happened in a game.

 

Note: we've had multiple games with multiple blunders. It's almost impossible to not have lost a games based on a blunder (or two or three).

 

You are exactly right that nobody can prove what the outcome of the game would have been if something different happened. That is why the correct way to determine the 'cost' of something like a baserunning blunder is to look at the change in run expectancy and win expectancy before and after the event.

 

Saying that a particular out of the bases, even if it's the last out of the game, cost us the game is incorrect.

[Kimmi]

I don't have a way to prove it right now, but I can guarantee you that our baserunning blunders have not cost us 5 to 10 games.

[Kimmi]

I think it's difficult to quantify "games lost" unless it happens in last at bat as an example. Making a stupid running mistake in 2nd inning becomes an afterthought. It maybe that it was a factor but the team still had 7 innings to overcome the dumb play. No so much last at bat.

 

It's actually not that difficult to quantify. Accepting the way that these things are quantified is what's difficult.

[Kimmi]

@jay_jaffe

 

a good reminder for panicky-ass Dodger fans: there's no correlation between September performance & playoff success

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9617

 

As the postseason unfolds over the next few weeks, you're going to hear a lot about momentum and its importance to a ballclub, and while it's undoubtedly a good idea to bear Earl Weaver's famous maxim in mind, the take-home message is that the conventional wisdom that a team's recent performances foreshadows their playoff fate is generally wrong. The fact that there are no shortage of pundits who elevate the 2007 Rockies as their evidence while forgetting the 2006 Cardinals underscores either how little attention some talking heads pay to actual results, or how short their attention spans are.

 

Old news.

[Kimmi]

TB was surging for awhile and now they've basically crested and started to fade. Your schedule is so easy going forward that you should be able to coast and set your rotation.

 

No, there is no coasting until the division is clinched. 'Coasting' is what leads to losing the division by one game.

[moonslav59]

I get all that. I'm just trying to point out that our baserunning isn't as bad as some think it is. People have talked about how we lead baseball in OOBs by a fair margin, then assume from that point that we are one of the worse baserunning teams in baseball or that our baserunning has done more harm than good, neither of which is correct.

 

It's similar to looking at the number of errors that a player has and making a judgment on the overall defense of that player. It doesn't work like that.

 

I agree, but I totally disagree with this from you several pages ago...

 

"Our baserunning blunders have not cost us any games. Even with all of the OOBs, our baserunning has been worth about 1 WIN."

 

I'm pretty sure running blunders have lost us at least one game. Yes, our running has won some to make up for that, but those gamesw e lost with blunders still count.

 

We could have been more than +1 without the blunders.

 

-3 +4 = +1

 

-1 + 4 = +3

[moonslav59]

I don't have a way to prove it right now, but I can guarantee you that our baserunning blunders have not cost us 5 to 10 games.

 

The "maybe as much as 5-10" quote was based on mostly fielding blunders plus base running blunders.

 

I said it was likely 4-5 games with the possibility it could be more (5-10) based on the fact that we can never know what might have happened. People are now focusing on my 5-10 game statement and some out of context.

 

I even mentioned that it is possible, though not likely, that we could have lost a game we actually won, if we took away a blunder by us. I know that sounds crazy, but it could happen. A starter might be pulled at a different time, An later inning could be started by a different batter. It's the "butterfly flapping it's wing" argument to an extreme, but really, the possibilities are endless when just one thing changes.

[Kimmi]

I agree, but I totally disagree with this from you several pages ago...

 

"Our baserunning blunders have not cost us any games. Even with all of the OOBs, our baserunning has been worth about 1 WIN."

 

I'm pretty sure running blunders have lost us at least one game. Yes, our running has won some to make up for that, but those gamesw e lost with blunders still count.

 

We could have been more than +1 without the blunders.

 

-3 +4 = +1

 

-1 + 4 = +3

 

Fair enough. I should have said that our overall baserunning has not cost us any games.

[cp176]

I've decided that it is pretty much a matter of personal perspective. I was (still am kind of) a coach. It does not matter to me at all if we make foolish mental mistakes whether we win or lose. They are never ok or acceptable. As a coach it has to be or at least should be embarrassing if your teams makes stupid mental mistakes and it should be an embarrassment whether you win or lose. If it does not embarrass you than you suck as a coach. i think that it has to bother Farrell.

[moonslav59]

I wish someone would go back and identify every blunder and then look and see how many led to our odds of winning going from a plus to a minus. That, aslo,

does not prove anything, but I think it might open some eyes as to how many times it has happened.

 

Note, this type of study would not be able to quantify games where several blunders were made in one game. That would likely add to the amount of games where blunders statistically tilted the balance of a game.

[moonslav59]

Fair enough. I should have said that our overall baserunning has not cost us any games.

 

I figured that was what you might have meant, but you took a while to respond, so I began to wonder.

[Kimmi]

I wish someone would go back and identify every blunder and then look and see how many led to our odds of winning going from a plus to a minus. That, aslo,

does not prove anything, but I think it might open some eyes as to how many times it has happened.

 

Note, this type of study would not be able to quantify games where several blunders were made in one game. That would likely add to the amount of games where blunders statistically tilted the balance of a game.

 

I'm not sure that there are that many of them that made our odds of winning go from a plus to a minus. I'm guessing that in many (most), we were already expected to lose before the blunder.

[Kimmi]

I figured that was what you might have meant, but you took a while to respond, so I began to wonder.

 

Contrary to popular belief (including my own), I do sometimes have a life that prohibits me from posting.

[illinoisredsox]

Magic Numbers:

 

Division - 17

Wild Card - 14

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Carson Smith huh? So what's the feeling. Will he be ready for full time set up duty in October?

[Maxbialystock]

I wish someone would go back and identify every blunder and then look and see how many led to our odds of winning going from a plus to a minus. That, aslo,

does not prove anything, but I think it might open some eyes as to how many times it has happened.

 

Note, this type of study would not be able to quantify games where several blunders were made in one game. That would likely add to the amount of games where blunders statistically tilted the balance of a game.

 

Honestly, I think blunders are in the eye of the beholder. As for the study, you seem best positioned--you tape games, you study them. To make your task easier, consider just looking at 1 run losses, certainly not more than 2 run losses. In 142 games so far, the Sox have 21 losses by 1 or 2 runs--piece of cake.

 

Based on Kimmi's numbers about Sox baserunning and how overall it is a plus, consider throwing out all of those blunders.

 

That leaves errors, of which the Sox have a bunch, and those become more interesting when you compare the Sox to the Guardians, who have committed the fewest in the AL this year, 66. We've made 91. Bogie has the most with 16, but the next most is 7, which tells me Bogie has hurt us, but that is not a surprise. The Guardians have given up 31 unearned runs and the Sox 53--pretty significant in my eyes.

 

Here's a couple more numbers that frankly stunned me. The Sox and Guardians have the two best ERA's in the AL--good for us. However, the Sox pitching (and defense) have given up 584 runs and the Guardians pitching and defense 513 runs. That's a big difference. Indeed, the Yankees are right up there with us despite a decent ERA.

 

The Guardians vaunted hitting this year actually ranks 4th in the AL in runs scored behind Houston, NY, and Texas. Those 513 runs against, on the other hand, are not only the best in the AL but buy a big margin--our 584 is actually second lowest (second best) in the AL. To me the inescapable conclusion is that the Guardians have far and away the best overall defense--pitching and fielding--in the AL.

 

Left out, of course, are the mental errors or blunders that don't get into the box scores, and I think those loom large in your view of things. This is especially true because you have said some errors, maybe most of them, are inevitable.

 

Still, I've just boiled this down to 21 games, which is not a bad place to start.

Edited September 10, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[S5Dewey]

Hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!

 

But you BDC guy love arguing relentlessly about s***.

 

Thanks. I just wish I knew how to import that into the forum rather than have to post it as a link. :-(

[S5Dewey]

But... ok.. I'll chime in on this one more time to point out that I take serious exception to the point that our baserunning has only cost us a game or two because the pluses have offset the minuses.

 

Even if that's true - which I doubt - that's not the goal of aggressive baserunning. The goal is to have a positive affect on the game, which it would have if this team didn't make so many stupid mistakes! It's like saying that although you made some bad investments that cost you $100,000 you also made some good ones that made you $100,000, so it's ok!

 

NO!! The idea isn't to break even. The idea is to come out AHEAD!

[Maxbialystock]

But... ok.. I'll chime in on this one more time to point out that I take serious exception to the point that our baserunning has only cost us a game or two because the pluses have offset the minuses.

 

Even if that's true - which I doubt - that's not the goal of aggressive baserunning. The goal is to have a positive affect on the game, which it would have if this team didn't make so many stupid mistakes! It's like saying that although you made some bad investments that cost you $100,000 you also made some good ones that made you $100,000, so it's ok!

 

NO!! The idea isn't to break even. The idea is to come out AHEAD!

 

I thought that was Kimmi's point--that aggressive baserunning has been a net plus. She didn't say that? Also, consider last night's game. Nunez and Betts were 2/2 stealing bases, with Betts going to 3b on a bad throw. But what got everybody excited? HanRam running into another out (at a time when the game was completely out of reach of the Rays). In other words, we generally prefer to focus on the blunders because they reveal our presumed soft underbelly-- "bad fundamentals."

Edited September 10, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[S5Dewey]

I thought that was Kimmi's point--that aggressive baserunning has been a net plus. She didn't say that?

 

I get the impression that she's talking about maybe a 1-2 game plus. My point is that if we ran smarter IMO that difference would be the 5-6 games Moon is talking about.

[Nick]

I thought that was Kimmi's point--that aggressive baserunning has been a net plus. She didn't say that? Also, consider last night's game. Nunez and Betts were 2/2 stealing bases, with Betts going to 3b on a bad throw. But what got everybody excited? HanRam running into another out (at a time when the game was completely out of reach of the Rays). In other words, we generally prefer to focus on the blunders because they reveal our presumed soft underbelly-- "bad fundamentals."

 

HanRam is that ugly girl running around with group of pretty ones. He thinks he's still 22 and has speed and can hang with Betts, Beni, Xander etc. Nope.

[Bellhorn04]

Here are some base-stealing stats:

 

MLB averages

74 steals

27 caught stealing

73.3% success rate

 

Red Sox

99 steals (5th in MLB)

29 caught stealing

77.3% success rate

[OH FOY]

Actually when your ahead 9-0 and you run into outs scare me more. Especially when play is in front of you, and your a Vet. Ball hit hard, Outfielder didn't bobble it, came right to him. He was a dead duck. He still ran. Had plenty of time to stop and get back.

Last night no problem, Play-offs every baserunner, every out important. Even when its 9-0.

[cp176]

I thought that was Kimmi's point--that aggressive baserunning has been a net plus. She didn't say that? Also, consider last night's game. Nunez and Betts were 2/2 stealing bases, with Betts going to 3b on a bad throw. But what got everybody excited? HanRam running into another out (at a time when the game was completely out of reach of the Rays). In other words, we generally prefer to focus on the blunders because they reveal our presumed soft underbelly-- "bad fundamentals."

 

When Hanley Ramirez is thrown out by a half a football field no amount of ya buts is going to make it ok. I hope he went on his own. He probably did.

[Maxbialystock]

HanRam is that ugly girl running around with group of pretty ones. He thinks he's still 22 and has speed and can hang with Betts, Beni, Xander etc. Nope.

 

Nicely said. HanRam is exactly that, which tells me that's why he gets so much attention, perhaps more than he deserves in terms of the real effect those baserunning gaffes have on wins and losses.

 

To me the far more important stat is that he leads the team in dingers but is 6th in rbi's and only 2 ahead of Bogaerts in 7th place. Pedroia with 15 fewer dingers and 30 fewer games has more rbi's than HanRam. Last year his OPS of .866 was 100 points higher and he had 111 rbi's to 55 right now with 20 games left.

 

This year HanRam's OPs with no one on base is .863. With runners on, with RISP, and with the bases loaded, his OPS's are all of a piece--in the low .600's. That is where he is killing us. To me the baserunning gaffes are painful but nevertheless a sideshow to the very real failure of HanRam this season--especially in our first year without Ortiz.

Edited September 10, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Still on the topic of mental blunders, I can remember reading about some teams where the players had their own 'kangaroo court' where anyone would made such a blunder would take some grief and possibly be hit with a modest fine. I think maybe Don Baylor was a kangaroo court judge. I strongly suspect the 2017 Sox have no such thing but maybe they should.