Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[cp176]

You're saying it's possible Henry increases or decreases the payroll? Insightful.

 

makes a lot more sense to me than making it sound as though you know what you are talking about. Being aware of what you don't know is damn insightful.

[cp176]

We have Rusney Castillo.

 

 

Now that is what I call insightful.

[cp176]

Nothing easier to replace than a 24 year old top ten player

 

 

never said that it would be easy just that it can be done.

[OH FOY]

Pitching Staff Projection in 2020?

[mvp 78]

Have you seen the TV deals and franchise valuations lately? Baseball owners are not losing money.

 

The bubble is ready to pop. At some point, advertisers aren't going to be shelling out increasing dollars. Tickets can't keep going up as you will price out too many fans.

 

I love baseball, but it's no longer America's Pastime. As the older generations die off, there will be less interest in the product unless the game can modernize.

[mvp 78]

Pitching Staff Projection in 2020?

 

1. Groome

2. Mata

3. Trey F'n Ball

4. Sale (will be given a lifetime contract after winning 2 straight WS in 2017 and 2018)

5. Houck

[Nick]

1. Groome

2. Mata

3. Trey F'n Ball

4. Sale (will be given a lifetime contract after winning 2 straight WS in 2017 and 2018)

5. Houck

 

Can we afford to pay Sale $50M, Betts $50M, Price $31M? And that will be Deves 3rd arb year. Who knows what that will cost. No worries, Henry has tons of money, right BsTHcpr?

Edited August 7, 2017 by Nick

[cp176]

The bubble is ready to pop. At some point, advertisers aren't going to be shelling out increasing dollars. Tickets can't keep going up as you will price out too many fans.

 

I love baseball, but it's no longer America's Pastime. As the older generations die off, there will be less interest in the product unless the game can modernize.

 

Sadly i agree

[cp176]

The bubble is ready to pop. At some point, advertisers aren't going to be shelling out increasing dollars. Tickets can't keep going up as you will price out too many fans.

 

I love baseball, but it's no longer America's Pastime. As the older generations die off, there will be less interest in the product unless the game can modernize.

 

Sadly i agree

[mvp 78]

Can we afford to pay Sale $50M, Betts $50M, Price $31M? And that will be Deves 3rd arb year. Who knows what that will cost. No worries, Henry has tons of money, right BsTHcpr?

 

Maybe they'll go to a 4 man rotation and never let Betts take a game off?

[FredLynn]

Now that is what I call insightful.

 

Rusney Castillo is batting .309/.840 in 335 PAs at Pawtucket. He may yet get another chance.

[moonslav59]

1. Groome

2. Mata

3. Trey F'n Ball

4. Sale (will be given a lifetime contract after winning 2 straight WS in 2017 and 2018)

5. Houck

 

Soxprospoects.com has this for their "Future" roster:

 

2020

Price

ERod

Groome

Wright

Houck

 

2021

Price

ERod

Groome

Houck

Scherff/Mata

[sk7326]

Can we afford to pay Sale $50M, Betts $50M, Price $31M? And that will be Deves 3rd arb year. Who knows what that will cost. No worries, Henry has tons of money, right BsTHcpr?

 

Yes they can ... they might not want to (Sale in particular) ... team doesn't have the most expensive everything for nothin

[moonslav59]

Rusney Castillo is batting .309/.840 in 335 PAs at Pawtucket. He may yet get another chance.

 

.840 is not all that great for AAA, but he might get a chance.

 

If we reset the tax this year, then the tax on Castillo's contract will likely be less than a good FA 4th OF'er might cost. If you are going by just AAA numbers, then Brentz might be a better (and cheaper) option than Castillo.

 

The big problem with adding Castillo to the 40 man roster is that his $11M contract will count vs the luxury tax until it runs out, even if we try to remove him from the 40 man roster at a later date (assuming he does not do very well). That could end up being a hefty tax by his last year on his contract.

 

My guess is he remains in purgatory for the remainder of his deal.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

1. Groome

2. Mata

3. Trey F'n Ball

4. Sale (will be given a lifetime contract after winning 2 straight WS in 2017 and 2018)

5. Houck

 

Trey Ball -- LOL.

 

For the 2020 starting staff, I have

 

(1) D.Price (he isn't opting out)

(2) E.Rodriguez (2020 will be his second to last year of arbitration)

(3) ???

(4) ???

(5) B.Johnson/J.Beeks

 

Are we selling B.Johnson short (2020 will be his first year of arbitration)? He could be around in 2020. If D.Price goes under the knife in 2018, Johnson probably takes his rotation spot. Beeks will ride the AAA-major league shuttle in 2018. I'm going to say that one of the two will be in the rotation in 2020.

 

Contenders for the remaining rotation spots.

The kids:

J.Groome

T.Houck

B.Mata

A.Scherff

 

Free agents: Do the Red Sox resign Sale or spend big on another free agent pitcher?

 

Wild Card: Steven Wright (2020 is his final arbitration year)

[Spudboy]

makes a lot more sense to me than making it sound as though you know what you are talking about. Being aware of what you don't know is damn insightful.

 

That's it. Go get him old man!!!!!

[cp176]

I'm a paltry substitute for old Fred aren't I?

[Bellhorn04]

I have my own metaphor for the window. We're not headed for a cliff, we're on a boat headed for Niagara Falls, with Captain Dave at the wheel. We might be headed for catastrophe, we might be headed for a pleasure cruise, it all depends on how well he steers the thing. Edited August 9, 2017 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

I'm a paltry substitute for old Fred aren't I?

 

You should try demeaning everyone a little more and talking up your decades of scouting high school kids.

[Kimmi]

http://fotos.fotoflexer.com/3d42544d835abaa8d829db4c4ba4001d.jpg

[mvp 78]

http://fotos.fotoflexer.com/3d42544d835abaa8d829db4c4ba4001d.jpg

 

Ben, buried 6 ft under ground. Just where A700 wants him!

[cp176]

You should try demeaning everyone a little more and talking up your decades of scouting high school kids.

 

Don't think so . i'm really not much like him. Demeaning people never worked particularly well for me and I just coached the high school kids.

[Nick]

2018

 

We'll have $130M tied up to 7 players, one of which will be playing for the Giants. Price,Sale and Porcello, Kimbrel, Pedroia, Hanley. Throw in another $16M for benefits and player salary for 15 outside of 25 major leaguers. Cap is $197M and we have approximately $50M left to field following positions.

C Leon (arb 1 = $1.3M) arb 2 estimate $2.5M

C Vazquez (league min $561K) arb 1 estimate $1.5M

1B Travis (league min) say $1M

SS Xander (arb 1 = $4.5M) arb estimate $7M

3B Devers (league minimum) say $1M

LF Beni (league min) say $1M

CF JBJ (arb 1 = $3.6M) arb 2 estimate $7.5M

RF Betts ($950K) arb 1 estimate $7.5M

 

Say you go cheap with 3 non arbitration players coming off the bench $3M

 

That's $32M ..

 

We have $18M left for two starters and 6 bullpen arms.

 

Two remaining starters, Pom and E Rod will be in their last and first arbitration years. (one of four for E Rod)

 

Pom (arb 2 = $4.45M) Arb 3 estimate $8M

E Rod (league minimum) Arb 1 estimate $4M

 

Now we have $6M left for following arms

 

Joe Kelly (arb 2 = $2.8M) arb 3 estimate $4M

Matt Barnes (league min) estimate $1M

Heath Hembree (league min) estimate $1M

Brandon Workman ($635K) arb 2 estimate $2M

Carson Smith (leauge min) arb 1 estimate $1M

Tyler Thornburg (arb 1 = $2.05M) arb 2 est $2M

 

That's total of $11M, we are over the cap by $5M,

 

And this is without adding big bat at 1B.

 

Moon, even going over by $20M as we've talked about, there's not much money left. f***ING PABLO. $19M DEAD MONEY.

 

Tell me again how we're going to extend Betts for $500M over 10 years?

Edited August 9, 2017 by Nick

[sk7326]

2018

 

We'll have $130M tied up to 7 players, one of which will be playing for the Giants. Price,Sale and Porcello, Kimbrel, Pedroia, Hanley. Throw in another $16M for benefits and player salary for 15 outside of 25 major leaguers. Cap is $197M and we have approximately $50M left to field following positions.

C Leon (arb 1 = $1.3M) arb 2 estimate $2.5M

C Vazquez (league min $561K) arb 1 estimate $1.5M

1B Travis (league min) say $1M

SS Xander (arb 1 = $4.5M) arb estimate $7M

3B Devers (league minimum) say $1M

LF Beni (league min) say $1M

CF JBJ (arb 1 = $3.6M) arb 2 estimate $7.5M

RF Betts ($950K) arb 1 estimate $7.5M

 

Say you go cheap with 3 non arbitration players coming off the bench $3M

 

That's $32M ..

 

We have $18M left for two starters and 6 bullpen arms.

 

Two remaining starters, Pom and E Rod will be in their last and first arbitration years. (one of four for E Rod)

 

Pom (arb 2 = $4.45M) Arb 3 estimate $8M

E Rod (league minimum) Arb 1 estimate $4M

 

Now we have $6M left for following arms

 

Joe Kelly (arb 2 = $2.8M) arb 3 estimate $4M

Matt Barnes (league min) estimate $1M

Heath Hembree (league min) estimate $1M

Brandon Workman ($635K) arb 2 estimate $2M

Carson Smith (leauge min) arb 1 estimate $1M

Tyler Thornburg (arb 1 = $2.05M) arb 2 est $2M

 

That's total of $11M, we are over the cap by $5M,

 

And this is without adding big bat at 1B.

 

Moon, even going over by $20M as we've talked about, there's not much money left. f***ING PABLO. $19M DEAD MONEY.

 

Tell me again how we're going to extend Betts for $500M over 10 years?

 

Because there is no cap

[Nick]

Because there is no cap

 

Then why didn't we just sign a big bat this year? All the talk about resetting the penalty rate was for naught? You are not serious.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Betts will come close to $400M/10 let alone $500M.

 

My idea was to try to lock him up this winter. The arb years would likely cost $45-50M anyways, so roll those numbers and years into a 10 or 12 year offer. This would help lower the overall AVV and luxury tax cost after the 3 year arb window ends, which happens to be when we will be hitting a wall with the tax budget.

 

People keep saying, "There is no cap." This is correct, but there are very extreme penalties for going $20-30M over the luxury tax limit that involves lowering draft slots and restricting international draft pool money. I seriously doubt any team will ever reach that penalty limit.

 

We will be able to go over the luxury limit without major penalties for a couple years, but once we reach year 3 and 4, with all the expensive arbs and re-signings needed, every dollar will likely count.

 

Back to Betts, if he's worth $35-40M per year after his 3 arb years are over, then we may end up losing him, but I'd try to get him to go for the instant security of signing a 10 year deal this winter.

 

$45M for the 3 arb years combined + $35M x 7 years after arb= $290M/10. make it $300M/10, and maybe he'll bite. Include a $20M signing bonus, so he can live mega-large sooner rather than later.

 

If he says no, I might negotiate higher or offer other perks like an opt out after 4 or 5 years and bonuses based on high performances.

If he says no to that, then we'll have to just see what happens in 3 years.

 

I might look to lock up JBJ and sale, if Betts says no.

[moonslav59]

Baseball Prospectus columnist Matthew Kory maintains his optimism regarding the Red Sox:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/08/an-optimists-view/

 

Kory lives in my town.

 

Good read, but the article is about optimism for 2017 not 2020 and beyond, which is what this thread is about.

[sk7326]

Then why didn't we just sign a big bat this year? All the talk about resetting the penalty rate was for naught? You are not serious.

 

It is because ownership did not WANT to pay the tax - which is their prerogative. But it is their CHOICE - because they want to take some profits ... which is fine. This is America, after all. By calling it a cap - you are buying into the idea that management's hands are tied by the rules, which of course is nonsense.

 

As a grownup who realizes that Sox fans pay the highest prices for just about everything (maybe behind Yankees fans in some areas - I am not looking this up), I have no problem questioning ownership's priorities if this is the case.

[sk7326]

http://fotos.fotoflexer.com/3d42544d835abaa8d829db4c4ba4001d.jpg

 

If the bus passes by a World Series stop or two yippee

[mvp 78]