Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[Bellhorn04]

The 3 year window was always a myth.

 

But you can't debunk it by naming free agents the Sox haven't signed or, in many cases, shouldn't sign.

 

Go back 3 years on plenty of teams and see how many starters were even in the organization 3 years ago. And how many were major leaguers.

 

Having a great farm creates these myths about the future, but the truth is the OVERWHELMING majority of prosepcts do not live up to the hype. However, many do live up to the job of making minimum wage or being adequate trade bait....

 

I remember when the Yankees had their own 'Killer B's' that were going to anchor the team's future rotations - Betances, Banuelos and Brackman. Instead of 3 starters they got 1 reliever.

[notin]

I remember when the Yankees had their own 'Killer B's' that were going to anchor the team's future rotations - Betances, Banuelos and Brackman. Instead of 3 starters they got 1 reliever.

 

Or when the Red Sox future was to be carried by the trio of Brian Rose, Carl Pavano and Jeff Suppan. Rose was the headliner and had the worst career by far...

[Hugh2]

One reason for having a strong farm system is to trade from strengths to improve weaknesses. There's nothing wrong with that, Dombrowski has made a lot of moves to improve this team now.

 

My only problem with many of DD's trades is they mostly seam to be 3 for 1's or 4 for 1's. This is partially the cause of the depth problem the system has, but to be fair it's kind of hard to critisize DD TOO much because he's pretty much won ever trade. Won ever trade with the caveat of the Shaw/Thornburg trade, however that is mostly due to the fact that Thornburg has been injured. If he was healthy and formed a 1-2 punch with Kimbrel I don't think too many people would be complaining about that trade.

 

I still think a guy like Espinoza could turn out to be a stud, but he doesn't have to flop for that trade to be good for the Sox. It was a classic trade now at the expense of tomorrow move and as long as Pomeranz excels you can't be too upset. I mean you can....it's a free country.....but really you can't.

[OH FOY]

Terrible evaluation on Mauricio Dubon, by Dombrowski. That's my problem. He was almost like a throw in. Hitting .299 at Triple AAA, and has hit more HRS this year. That Trade is turning out great for the Brewers.

[Kimmi]

Although I disagreed with Ben's signing of Pablo, there was a rationale behind improving the offense before 2015 and going for pitching with the big FA class of SP'ers before 2016.

 

Yes, there was rationale behind the Pablo signing. In addition to what you mentioned, our 3B production the year before was pretty bad. Pablo really should have been a decent improvement.

[Hugh2]

Terrible evaluation on Mauricio Dubon, by Dombrowski. That's my problem. He was almost like a throw in. Hitting .299 at Triple AAA, and has hit more HRS this year. That Trade is turning out great for the Brewers.

 

key word there is AAA, and yes he has 7 HR's this year in over 450 PA's 5 of which he's had in AAA and if I'm correct here I believe the Pacific Coast league is a hitters league, they are filled with hitter friendly parks with short porches.

 

I like Dubon, but I still think his most likely best case scenario is a good utility player.

[Kimmi]

If we assume best case scenario for every player then sure, there ain't no cliff. While I've been a "cliff" in the past, I think that is a very poor way of putting it. I think uncertainty may be more accurate. As in, there is more uncertainty who play 1B next year than RF, but that doesn't mean 1B will give us less production than 1B.....but I'd bet on it.

 

Uncertainty is a good way of putting it. Right now, that uncertainty looks like a cliff to me, but a lot can happen between now and then. I can't agree with idea of emptying the farm to the extent that Dombrowski has, but he does have time to right the long term ship before we hit the cliff.

[Bellhorn04]

Terrible evaluation on Mauricio Dubon, by Dombrowski. That's my problem. He was almost like a throw in. Hitting .299 at Triple AAA, and has hit more HRS this year. That Trade is turning out great for the Brewers.

 

Sometimes these trades have a bad effect on me - I actually hope the players we traded don't do that well. Right now I'm keeping an eye on Travis Shaw to see if he has a late fade like he did last year. I'm not proud of it but it seems to be kind of a natural thing to do.

[notin]

The Sox also faced uncertainty in 2005. Pedro, Lowe, Varitek, Nixon, Cabrera, and numerous other were free agents after that season. The farm system had very little above A-ball. And the World Series drought lasted 3 whopping years...

[notin]

key word there is AAA, and yes he has 7 HR's this year in over 450 PA's 5 of which he's had in AAA and if I'm correct here I believe the Pacific Coast league is a hitters league, they are filled with hitter friendly parks with short porches.

 

I like Dubon, but I still think his most likely best case scenario is a good utility player.

 

Agreed. PCL batting averages are like SAT scores. You get 200 points just for showing up

[Hugh2]

The Sox also faced uncertainty in 2005. Pedro, Lowe, Varitek, Nixon, Cabrera, and numerous other were free agents after that season. The farm system had very little above A-ball. And the World Series drought lasted 3 whopping years...

 

That system also had a good draft that year too with college players, guys who got the token A ball assignment then flew up the system in no time. Ellsbury and Buchholz were contributors in 2007. Also, consider that they came in a system where the Sox had 4 1st round picks just like the team built now came from a 2011 draft in which team team drafted large contributors to this team.

 

They also boasted a system in 2005 that brought in the likes of Beckett and Lowell and still had Papelbon, Lester, Pedroia, Delcarmen, Ellsbury, Buccholz, in it.

 

The uncertainty to me comes from the mechanism a team uses to bring talent in. The drafts in 2005 and 2011 saw the team bring in talent with 4 first round picks. Not only are the Red Sox no longer going to receive additional picks like that but for a few years now they've been unable to spend heavily after the first round and just throw cash at everyone. International pools are becoming more restrictive as well.

 

The parellels from 2005 to 2016 are pretty big actually, that's a good comparrision. But to me, the uncertainty comes from the mechanism to replenish that system have been stripped away from baseball. I'm not saying it can or can't happen, I just don't see how right now. Some might not care about that, but I do.

[moonslav59]

That system also had a good draft that year too with college players, guys who got the token A ball assignment then flew up the system in no time. Ellsbury and Buchholz were contributors in 2007. Also, consider that they came in a system where the Sox had 4 1st round picks just like the team built now came from a 2011 draft in which team team drafted large contributors to this team.

 

They also boasted a system in 2005 that brought in the likes of Beckett and Lowell and still had Papelbon, Lester, Pedroia, Delcarmen, Ellsbury, Buccholz, in it.

 

The uncertainty to me comes from the mechanism a team uses to bring talent in. The drafts in 2005 and 2011 saw the team bring in talent with 4 first round picks. Not only are the Red Sox no longer going to receive additional picks like that but for a few years now they've been unable to spend heavily after the first round and just throw cash at everyone. International pools are becoming more restrictive as well.

 

The parellels from 2005 to 2016 are pretty big actually, that's a good comparrision. But to me, the uncertainty comes from the mechanism to replenish that system have been stripped away from baseball. I'm not saying it can or can't happen, I just don't see how right now. Some might not care about that, but I do.

 

Well said.

 

The word "cliff" might be hyperbole, but we don't have to go back too far to see a recent "cliff".

 

We finished last in 3 of 4 years. How was our farm from 2007-2010 or 2008-2011?

 

Why was our farm so weak? Could it have been years of getting draft picks in the mid to late 20's?

 

The turn around of our farm under Theo's last years and Ben's years were fueled by comp picks, international signings and drafting "unsignable" players lower in the draft. The comp picks and free spending on international FAs are gone. Our draft picks should be mid 20's for the next 2-3 years.

 

To me, it's bit more than "uncertainty" but maybe a bit less than a "cliff".

[a700hitter]

People are backing away from "The Cliff" and moving to "Uncertainty." "Uncertainty", now there is a novel concept in competitive professional sports.

[OH FOY]

key word there is AAA, and yes he has 7 HR's this year in over 450 PA's 5 of which he's had in AAA and if I'm correct here I believe the Pacific Coast league is a hitters league, they are filled with hitter friendly parks with short porches.

 

I like Dubon, but I still think his most likely best case scenario is a good utility player.

 

So the kids on the Dodgers now should be slumping soon? Oklahoma City is in the PCL. HRS are the difference in that league not average, Dubon hit good for Salem and Portland last year, and before that.

Seager, and Bellinger hasn't effected their Power, and they now play in a Pitchers Park in LA.

But your right, power numbers are a little miss leading in that league.

Edited August 5, 2017 by OH FOY!

[BstHcpr]

So the kids on the Dodgers now should be slumping soon? Oklahoma City is in the PCL. HRS are the difference in that league not average, Dubon hit good for Salem and Portland last year, and before that.

Seager, and Bellinger hasn't effected their Power, and they now play in a Pitchers Park in LA.

But your right, power numbers are a little miss leading in that league.

 

Seager and Bellinger were both top prospects. Dubon is not. Dubon could become a good player one day, but it's kind of lazy to compare the three.

[cp176]

Or when the Red Sox future was to be carried by the trio of Brian Rose, Carl Pavano and Jeff Suppan. Rose was the headliner and had the worst career by far...

 

I watched him pitch in Boston. All 3 of those guys looked as though they were at least going to be ok. Funny how it works.

[cp176]

People are backing away from "The Cliff" and moving to "Uncertainty." "Uncertainty", now there is a novel concept in competitive professional sports.

 

 

More wordsmithing me thinks. Doesn't sound quite as bad as that cliff word does it.

[cp176]

Seager and Bellinger were both top prospects. Dubon is not. Dubon could become a good player one day, but it's kind of lazy to compare the three.

 

 

I really liked Dubon when I saw him play but in all honesty Hernandez,Lin, and Marerro might have been him too. Actually Benintendi could have been mistaken for him as well. If Beni played the infield, they could all be the same guy. boston has done this for quite some time. A collection of solid mediocrity (benintendi of course excluded). That is why I get so excited when we do have someone appear who can hit but actually might get the ball over the outfielders heads as well.

[BstHcpr]

There is a common belief among many fans that the Red Sox have a 3 year window (beginning in 2017) to win a championship. After the three year window is up (in 2020), the Red Sox will need to rebuild. However, I don’t agree with this assessment.

 

Let’s take a look at the Red Sox in 2020. One important piece of info: I believe the Red Sox are going to sign Hosmer for 1b after the 2017 season. I will operate on that assumption (I have taken a conservative approach in saying that Hosmer will be the only major free agent acquisition for the Red Sox over the next three years). Also, I’m not going to address the bullpen due to the extreme amount of volatility among relievers. It is virtually impossible to predict the Red Sox bullpen in 2020.

 

2020 Red Sox – position players:

1b: Hosmer (30 years old)

2b: Pedroia (36 years old)

SS: ???

3b: Devers (3 years from now he will still be a young guy!)

C: Vazquez (still under 30)

LF: Benintendi (26 years old)

CF: Bradley (final year of arbitration)

RF: Betts (final year of arbitration – will still be under 30 years old)

DH: Chavis (he will be around 25 years old)

 

NOTES: Bogaerts is a free agent after the 2019 season. I wouldn’t resign him--his defense at SS isn't good enough. Top international prospect Daniel Flores © will turn 20 in 2020 and will likely be a year or two away from replacing Vazquez.

 

This doesn’t seem like a rebuilding team to me. At this point, Hosmer and Betts should still be really good. Benintendi, Chavis, and Devers will hopefully be stars. The Red Sox will need solid depth behind the 36 year old Pedroia, but maybe he can age gracefully, kind of like Ben Zobrist.

 

2020 Red Sox Starting Staff:

David Price (34 years old, I doubt he opts out)

E.Rodriguez (27 years old—arbitration year)

???

???

???

 

NOTES: C.Sale is a free agent after 2019. R.Porcello is a free agent after 2019.

 

While the Red Sox have stability with their position players for many years to come, their 2020 rotation is very much an unknown. But guess what? Dombrowski knows this too and that is why the Red Sox have been so aggressive in drafting starting pitching: Jay Groome, Tanner Houck, Alex Scherff. B.Mata could be another piece to the puzzle. These guys will be ready around 2020, just when the Red Sox need them. I would expect Dombrowski to aggressively pursue starting pitching in the 2018 draft as well.

 

If the Red Sox organization can produce starting pitching, something they have struggled to do in recent years, there is no reason to rebuild in 2020. Instead, the Red Sox will go full speed ahead after another championship. The drafting and developing of starting pitching will be crucial to the process of sustaining success when the three year window is up.

 

FTR, it is far more likely that a 16 year old in the DSL flames out at A ball than is "one or two years away" from becoming a starting catcher.

[BstHcpr]

I really liked Dubon when I saw him play but in all honesty Hernandez,Lin, and Marerro might have been him too. Actually Benintendi could have been mistaken for him as well. If Beni played the infield, they could all be the same guy. boston has done this for quite some time. A collection of solid mediocrity (benintendi of course excluded). That is why I get so excited when we do have someone appear who can hit but actually might get the ball over the outfielders heads as well.

 

In their age 22 seasons, Dubon had a 4% BB rate in AA, whereas Benintendi was the starting LF for the AL East champions, and fared pretty well in 100 PA's. Get real.

[moonslav59]

Last year of team control:

 

2017:

Nunez

A Reed

Moreland

Young

Abad

Boyer

Fister

(A Craig comes off the books.)

 

My guess is we sign or trade for a big bat 1Bman and try to fill all our other needs from within the system:

FA for Moreland

Devers for Pablo

Hernandez (Lin/Marrero) for Nunez

Holt (Brentz/Barfield) for Young

CSmith for A Reed

Thornburg for Abad

Several choices for Boyer & Fister

 

We may sign another lower level FA or two or wait for the deadline to make adjustments, if needed.

 

2018:

Kimbrel

Pomeranz

Kelly

R Ross

HRam (2019 if his options vests)

 

It gets more difficult here. This could be the second year going over the luxury tax, and arb costs could be sky-rocketing. My guess is, assuming no big injuries or surprises, we'll try to keep Pom and Kimbrel (or other pitchers at their current level). We may need to replace Kelly and Ross from within. If we can replace HRam with Chavis or some other in-house player, we'll be fine heading into 2019. We may need to sign another big bat, if Travis, Chavis or no other prospect steps up.

 

2019:

C Sale

Bogaerts

Porcello

Thornburg

B Holt

Rutledge

(Pablo comes off the books)

 

It's hard to project this far away, but clearly our work is cut out for us this winter here. Pablo's money coming off the books can help some. We'll have to keep Sale of find another ace. That won't be cheap. We may say good bye to Bogey, which would probably help allow us to keep Betts & Bradley the following year.

 

2020:

Betts

JBJ

Wright

C Smith

Vazquez

Leon

(Castillo comes off the books- not luxury tax books)

 

The so-called "cliff year" may actually be 2021

 

2021:

ERod

Pedroia

Barnes

Hembree

Swihart

Elias

 

2022:

Price

 

TBD:

Beni

Devers

Hernandez

Travis

Lin

Marrero

Workman

Scott

Taylor

Johnson

Maddox

Martin

Velazquez

N Ramirez

H Owens

 

 

 

[cp176]

In their age 22 seasons, Dubon had a 4% BB rate in AA, whereas Benintendi was the starting LF for the AL East champions, and fared pretty well in 100 PA's. Get real.

 

Read closely - they looked alike. i'm not ready to anoint benintendi into the HOF just yet but I get the fact that he is playing ml baseball. I'm just not all lathered up about trying to resign him already to a gazillion dollar contract. I bet though that as soon as he learns how to run the bases and play the field i'll feel better about him.

[moonslav59]

Read closely - they looked alike. i'm not ready to anoint benintendi into the HOF just yet but I get the fact that he is playing ml baseball. I'm just not all lathered up about trying to resign him already to a gazillion dollar contract. I bet though that as soon as he learns how to run the bases and play the field i'll feel better about him.

 

You're right. We have plenty of time to evaluate Beni and hopefully watch him improve on his high need areas.

 

Chris Sale and the other "Killer Bs" (and others currently more important than Beni) will need the choice made before Beni's anyway.

[BstHcpr]

Read closely - they looked alike. i'm not ready to anoint benintendi into the HOF just yet but I get the fact that he is playing ml baseball. I'm just not all lathered up about trying to resign him already to a gazillion dollar contract. I bet though that as soon as he learns how to run the bases and play the field i'll feel better about him.

 

One was a top ten draft pick, a top 100 prospect in consecutive years, and was two levels ahead of the other at the same age. There is almost nothing similar between the two players.

[Spudboy]

Read closely - they looked alike. i'm not ready to anoint benintendi into the HOF just yet but I get the fact that he is playing ml baseball. I'm just not all lathered up about trying to resign him already to a gazillion dollar contract. I bet though that as soon as he learns how to run the bases and play the field i'll feel better about him.

 

I've criticized his left field play several times.

 

He was pushed though the system because of his bat.

 

He remains a work in process. In all phases of the game.

 

I expect that he will be very good pretty soon.

[cp176]

I've criticized his left field play several times.

 

He was pushed though the system because of his bat.

 

He remains a work in process. In all phases of the game.

 

I expect that he will be very good pretty soon.

 

You know sometimes in my attempt to just be humorous I find myself in a hole that I have to dig my way out of. I'm really glad that there are a couple of people here who get what I try to say most of the time. We all hope Beni becomes the player that all of the so called scouts and brilliant minds believe he might become. i'm pretty sure that you understand what I am trying to say. These guys are all the same size. In some respects that means they sort of look alike. Not one of them including Benintendi looks big enough to carry the weight of the franchise on their shoulders. They are all replaceable tomorrow. I hope Beni becomes a star but if doesn't eventually play with just a lick of intelligence he is just going to wind up being a plus minus kind of guy. maybe he just needs a swift kick in the ass now and then. I posted this here Spud because I know that you get the fact that I realize that there is a difference in the ability levels of all these little guys.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm not convinced that Bradley is the kind of guy you want to invest big money in after the 2020 season. At that juncture, Bradley will have left his 20s behind and so much of his value is tied to his defensive prowess. But when his defense declines, and I would expect that to happen in his 30s, his offense isn't going to make up for that loss. He isn't M.Trout with the bat--far from it.

 

I'm hoping Cole Brannen will be the Red Sox starting CF beginning in 2021. Most importantly, his last name starts with the letter, "B"!!!

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I expect that he will be very good pretty soon.

 

No one would be surprised if he hits .320 next year with 25 HR. He hasn't had that breakout major league season yet, but it could be around the corner.

 

On the other hand, maybe Benintendi he has more Ken Griffey Senior in him than George Brett. But even if he becomes Ken Griffey Senior, that is still a really good player, just not as special as George Brett.

[S5Dewey]

I'm not convinced that Bradley is the kind of guy you want to invest big money in after the 2020 season. At that juncture, Bradley will have left his 20s behind and so much of his value is tied to his defensive prowess. But when his defense declines, and I would expect that to happen in his 30s, his offense isn't going to make up for that loss. He isn't M.Trout with the bat--far from it.

 

I'm hoping Cole Brannen will be the Red Sox starting CF beginning in 2021. Most importantly, his last name starts with the letter, "B"!!!

 

I don't see JBJ's defense decline significantly in the near future. I do realize that much of his defense appears to depend on his speed and speed is the first to go, but he also has the ability to turn his back on the ball and run to the spot where the ball will come down, That in itself will compensate for some of his decline in speed when it happens.

I see his defense at age 35 to be different from his defense at age 30 in that at 35 he'll be arriving at "the spot" at the same time as the ball rather than being there waiting for the ball like he is now.

[Kimmi]

Just to give some props to our boy Mookie:

 

Buster Olney

13m

Mookie Betts has 30 Defensive Runs Saved. Next closest right fielder has 6; next closest at any position has 19

 

He is the player that would be my top priority to extend, but even with that being the case, I would not give him a 10 year deal.