Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[notin]

The Shaw Trade would have me skeptical of any moves DD makes if I was a Owner. Not because Reliever got hurt, but we kept Sandoval and moved Shaw and Prospects. Not too good at evaluating with what we had that were home grown.

This team should win with what we have. If not, its on the Players.

 

The Shaw trade hasn't worked out, but it's amazing how many people have decided it's evidence of Dombrowski's incompetence. He could make nine straight trades that worked out, and people will still be saying "But that Shaw trade...".

 

Yes we lost Shaw. Forget about him. Every tesm makes deals like this. It's timr to move on. This is the Age of Devers now....

[Kimmi]

The Shaw trade hasn't worked out, but it's amazing how many people have decided it's evidence of Dombrowski's incompetence. He could make nine straight trades that worked out, and people will still be saying "But that Shaw trade...".

 

Yes we lost Shaw. Forget about him. Every tesm makes deals like this. It's timr to move on. This is the Age of Devers now....

 

I am far from a Dombrowski fan, but I do not blame Dombrowski for the Shaw trade.

[SoxnCycles]

I am far from a Dombrowski fan, but I do not blame Dombrowski for the Shaw trade.

 

Yup, no one cared about Shaw, after he hit that second half skid last season.

[sk7326]

No one would be surprised if he hits .320 next year with 25 HR. He hasn't had that breakout major league season yet, but it could be around the corner.

 

On the other hand, maybe Benintendi he has more Ken Griffey Senior in him than George Brett. But even if he becomes Ken Griffey Senior, that is still a really good player, just not as special as George Brett.

 

He is a rookie who was in AA this time a year ago ... it is amazing how easy it is to forget this. He hasn't broken out yet - waaaaahhh ... of course he has work to do. He has had a good rookie season. It's not as good as his callup last season - but plenty good to say "he could be a keeper"

[sk7326]

I'm not convinced that Bradley is the kind of guy you want to invest big money in after the 2020 season. At that juncture, Bradley will have left his 20s behind and so much of his value is tied to his defensive prowess. But when his defense declines, and I would expect that to happen in his 30s, his offense isn't going to make up for that loss. He isn't M.Trout with the bat--far from it.

 

I'm hoping Cole Brannen will be the Red Sox starting CF beginning in 2021. Most importantly, his last name starts with the letter, "B"!!!

 

This is fair - and the Red Sox also have a probable Top 5 center fielder playing directly to Bradley's left. He has always been a movable commodity for that reason - quality starting CFs are hard to find and the Red Sox have two.

[notin]

I am far from a Dombrowski fan, but I do not blame Dombrowski for the Shaw trade.

 

I don't like the trade, but if I'm being consistent, I never thought Shaw was anything special either....

[Hugh2]

People are backing away from "The Cliff" and moving to "Uncertainty." "Uncertainty", now there is a novel concept in competitive professional sports.

 

Oh please, it's semantics. This isn't that serious.

[cp176]

He is a rookie who was in AA this time a year ago ... it is amazing how easy it is to forget this. He hasn't broken out yet - waaaaahhh ... of course he has work to do. He has had a good rookie season. It's not as good as his callup last season - but plenty good to say "he could be a keeper"

 

 

The types of mental mistakes he has made should not be happening. There is no question that he is a keeper from the physical side. Such things as trying to advance to third on a roundball directly in front of you are not all that uncharacteristic of his game. These aren't the types of "rookie " mistakes I guess that I am used to. I'm glad that we have him but I also have no problem with someone telling him like it is. no amount of rationalization makes these mental mistakes ok.

[Hugh2]

Most people Benintendi's age were drafted last year and are in A ball right now. In the beginning of the year, I suggested batting AB lower in the lineup because he was certain to have ups/downs as the league adjusted to him and he learned to become an everyday MLBer. It helps to have perspective and foresight and not just look at what a guy has done the past month.

[S5Dewey]

The types of mental mistakes he has made should not be happening. There is no question that he is a keeper from the physical side. Such things as trying to advance to third on a roundball directly in front of you are not all that uncharacteristic of his game. These aren't the types of "rookie " mistakes I guess that I am used to. I'm glad that we have him but I also have no problem with someone telling him like it is. no amount of rationalization makes these mental mistakes ok.

So true. I've seen high school players get chewed out for trying to advance to third on a ground ball hit in front of them.

[StephenCurry30]

I am against giving almost anyone 10 year deals, but if there were a guy, mookie is it.

[moonslav59]

Just to give some props to our boy Mookie:

 

Buster Olney

13m

Mookie Betts has 30 Defensive Runs Saved. Next closest right fielder has 6; next closest at any position has 19

 

He is the player that would be my top priority to extend, but even with that being the case, I would not give him a 10 year deal.

 

If he'd take a 10 year deal this winter, I would. Roll in his arb years into the deal to lessen the luxury tax hit for his last 7 years.

 

$2750M/10 is tough to offer, but I'd be inclined to do it.

[StephenCurry30]

^id fully be on board for that contract for mook.

[a700hitter]

10 year deal for Mookie @ $275 million? I'm out.

[Jasonbay44]

Id easily give Mookie 10 years $275 million. Even with this "down" season he's still worth that money due to his amazing defense. I wouldn't even think twice about it, he's worth the money.

[a700hitter]

Id easily give Mookie 10 years $275 million. Even with this "down" season he's still worth that money due to his amazing defense. I wouldn't even think twice about it, he's worth the money.

Speed is a big part of his game. I don't like paying speed guys into their 30's. I am out.

[Bellhorn04]

It's easy for us to say.

[BstHcpr]

Id easily give Mookie 10 years $275 million. Even with this "down" season he's still worth that money due to his amazing defense. I wouldn't even think twice about it, he's worth the money.

 

He's getting more than that.

[Jasonbay44]

He's getting more than that.

 

That was the suggest offer by Moon people were debating. Id easily give him that, and possibly more. 24 year old superstars don't come along often

[BstHcpr]

That was the suggest offer by Moon people were debating. Id easily give him that, and possibly more. 24 year old superstars don't come along often

 

I could see the Red Sox offering him 6/180 this off-season

[moonslav59]

He's getting more than that.

 

Betts has 3 arb years starting with year one this winter.

 

Players don't get FA market value during their arb years. He might make $7M, $15M and $25M the next 3 years. That's $47M/3 plus $228M/7 for his "free agent" years. That actually comes to about $32.5M a year x 7.

 

He may get $325M x 10 as a FA in 3 years, but signing now gives him some security against injury or unforeseen bad years between now and his big pay day.

 

[moonslav59]

I could see the Red Sox offering him 6/180 this off-season

 

$180M/ 6 actually comes to about

 

$47M/3 for the arb years

and

$133M/3 for his first 3 FA years (just under $45M a year x 3!)

 

Nope.

[sk7326]

Id easily give Mookie 10 years $275 million. Even with this "down" season he's still worth that money due to his amazing defense. I wouldn't even think twice about it, he's worth the money.

 

A down year that has him 5th in the world in bWAR.

[Spudboy]

If I were an owner I would never rubber stamp a 10 year deal.

 

That is just not sound business practice.

[Spudboy]

The types of mental mistakes he has made should not be happening. There is no question that he is a keeper from the physical side. Such things as trying to advance to third on a roundball directly in front of you are not all that uncharacteristic of his game. These aren't the types of "rookie " mistakes I guess that I am used to. I'm glad that we have him but I also have no problem with someone telling him like it is. no amount of rationalization makes these mental mistakes ok.

 

Amen Bro.

[sk7326]

The types of mental mistakes he has made should not be happening. There is no question that he is a keeper from the physical side. Such things as trying to advance to third on a roundball directly in front of you are not all that uncharacteristic of his game. These aren't the types of "rookie " mistakes I guess that I am used to. I'm glad that we have him but I also have no problem with someone telling him like it is. no amount of rationalization makes these mental mistakes ok.

 

To be fair - it was charming when Manny did it. There is stuff to tighten up. Better fixing that stuff than the bat being afraid of breaking stuff.

[Spudboy]

I could see the Red Sox offering him 6/180 this off-season

 

Yup.

 

It may not get it done but that is much closer to a reasonable offer than 10/275.

 

You can justify anything with WAR or whatever.

 

Eventually one needs to make prudent fiscal decisions.

[sk7326]

A 6 year, 200 million deal that gobbles up his arb years is sensible for both sides - buys some of his free agency, gives him a ton of security and huge raises in his arb years ... and gets him back into FA by age 30 where he can probably secure another monster contract.

[sk7326]

Yup.

 

It may not get it done but that is much closer to a reasonable offer than 10/275.

 

You can justify anything with WAR or whatever.

 

Eventually one needs to make prudent fiscal decisions.

 

Salaries rise a lot faster than locking 10/275 would do.

[Spudboy]

Salaries rise a lot faster than locking 10/275 would do.

 

 

So?

 

Investing 10/275 on an organism that can have mechanical failures that diminish it's ability to perform is a bad investment.

 

A prudent business person would not do this.