A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

If you really want to think big, why not go after Manny Machado. At 26 years old now, he is one FA that we might get but it would break the bank. He could play third while we could consider moving Devers to ist. He is a great third baseman with the big bat we need. The amount of money would be equal to any we might sign and the contract period would be long, but he is in my view the best young 3rd baseman in the game today. That would leave Hanley as DH only with Nunez or Pedey filling in as needed.

 

Machado is not a FA this winter. Waiting for 2019 is a plan, if we just sign someone like Morrison or Duda to a one year deal this winter, but neither solves our high need for a big bat.

[Nick]

Machado is not a FA this winter. Waiting for 2019 is a plan, if we just sign someone like Morrison or Duda to a one year deal this winter, but neither solves our high need for a big bat.

 

There is no point in signing a MEDIOCRE FREE AGENT TO tie up our payroll for 4-5 years. GO BIG or do something similar to Moreland deal.

 

If we don't win the World Series, DD will go get a big fish, no matter what young players it may cost. I'm not sure if he's in love with remaining prospects other than Groome.

[moonslav59]

There is no point in signing a MEDIOCRE FREE AGENT TO tie up our payroll for 4-5 years. GO BIG or do something similar to Moreland deal.

 

If we don't win the World Series, DD will go get a big fish, no matter what young players it may cost. I'm not sure if he's in love with remaining prospects other than Groome.

 

If we want Machado, my point was that I doubt we can go large this winter, too.

 

I'm fine, if we do and JF pays the tax.

 

I mentioned signing someone to a one year deal as a bridge to Machado.

[Larry Cook]

Have we decided to move devers to first base next season?

[Bellhorn04]

Have we decided to move devers to first base next season?

 

Talksox members are working on it. Nothing final yet.

[Larry Cook]

John Henry needs to launch desperate dave and just follow our lead. World Series title guaranteed!

[harmony]

Following up on the idea of trading for Stanton or Votto and including HRam as a "salary offset". Here's how the numbers unfold:

 

Votto is owed $157M/6 (including the $7M buyout of 2024, or $170M/7 if they keep him for 2024). Forget bringing up the age issue for now, let's look just at the financial numbers. While $157M/6 comes to over $26M a year. That's a lot, but the luxury tax cost is "just" $22.5M a year. That's basically what HRam makes. Cincy has no luxury tax concerns. They look at the $26M/yr number while we look at the $22.5M number. This alone makes this type of deal worth looking at from both sides. If we made this trade (HRam and some very good young talent) for Votto, we'd barely add any luxury tax dollars to our budget for 2018 and maybe 2019 (depending on HRam's vesting option). That would allow us to sign a top free agent, perhaps to replace a key young player included in the trade (like maybe Cozart, if we traded Bogey as part of the deal, Moustakas if we decide to move Devers to DH or JD Martinez, if we traded an OF'er).

 

Stanton: The same type of financial situation applies here. Stanton is owed $292M/10. That's $29M a year, but the luxury tax hit is "just" $25M a year--not bad for a team like the Sox trying to avoid paying a mega luxury tax. Including HRam in the deal would mean GS only costs us about $3M for the next two year (in the "window"). We'd be hit hard afterwards as we would be with Votto, but we'd be fine for 1-2 years still within the so-called window of our high chance of winning a ring.

 

If we include a player like Bogey or JBJ, we'd be able to subtract their arb costs over the next few years, but we'd have to replacee them in kind somehow.

 

Giancarlo Stanton has posted 6.0 fWAR this year.

 

Joey Votto has posted 6.0 fWAR this year.

 

Hanley Ramirez has posted a negative 0.1 fWAR this year.

 

I assume three years of Mookie Betts or five years of Andrew Benintendi would need to be in the package to offset the production difference.

[moonslav59]

Giancarlo Stanton has posted 6.0 fWAR this year.

 

Joey Votto has posted 6.0 fWAR this year.

 

Hanley Ramirez has posted a negative 0.1 fWAR this year.

 

I assume three years of Mookie Betts or five years of Andrew Benintendi would need to be in the package to offset the production difference.

 

No way.

 

I wasn't counting HRam as a positive for the team we trade him to. He was meant as a "salary offset".

 

With the salaries Votto and GS have and their ages as the contracts wind down, I think you are overvaluing their trade value.

 

Beni (plus others) might be needed but not Betts and Beni.

[harmony]

No way.

 

I wasn't counting HRam as a positive for the team we trade him to. He was meant as a "salary offset".

 

With the salaries Votto and GS have and their ages as the contracts wind down, I think you are overvaluing their trade value.

 

Beni (plus others) might be needed but not Betts and Beni.

That reminds me of trade proposals that included Pablo Sandoval to offset salary.

[moonslav59]

That reminds me of trade proposals that included Pablo Sandoval to offset salary.

 

OK, we keep HRam and force a $22M payment...like how the Astors got DET to pay $16M.

 

I thought Cincy and MIA wouldnt mind having HRam instead of just $22M.

[oldtimer]

OK, we keep HRam and force a $22M payment...like how the Astors got DET to pay $16M.

 

I thought Cincy and MIA wouldnt mind having HRam instead of just $22M.

 

Most likely we would keep Hanley for another year as the options don't seem that attractive. As nasty as it seems, under no circumstances should we continue to have him back in 2019. A salary offset deal seems unlikely to me.

 

The deals that have been made for the unproductive players we signed have weighed the club down and we still have two of those hanging over our heads in Hanley (not the worst of them since at least he has produced something for the club) and Price who doesn't appear to have a ghost of a chance to stay productive going forward. A short term solution for the club, while keeping it balanced until we can shed Hanley's contract seems to be a reasonable solution, with the big acquisition having to wait one year. Alternatively, we take a huge payroll upgrade and pay the extra now.

[Nick]

Sox definitely got a 'surge' from adding Devers, Nunez and Reed at trade deadline. Having Devers for full year next year at 3B should equate to raising our 3B production out of near bottom in majors next year. Something similar to what Beni I assume has done in LF. Fully recovered Carson Smith should do at leat as well as Reed, if not better. Plus it'll be full year's production. Maybe Thornburg gives us aded depth in 2nd half of 2018.

 

What's becoming clearer is as with starting pitching, a team needs 10 starters to fill 9 positions. Super sub is a must and it ain't Brock Holt. It will be tough to replace Nunez, unless it is Nunez.

 

What to do with Fister? Do we offer him a two year, say $15M deal or just hope Wright returns 100% for 2018? Any starting pitching options in minors that did not make appearance in 2017?

 

Will DD simply keep his fingers crossed and hope for Betts and Xanders' bats to return to 2016 level? (I think he'll settle for simple 'tweak' if win the whole thing, otherwise he'll make big splash.)

Edited September 9, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

Is it time to extend Pom?

 

Also it's been incredible having Sale on Sox roster this year. I'm giddy thinking about next 2 years. He will turn 31 before his free agent year. Any concern about all the innings he's pitched by then? Or is he a rubber arm man?

Edited September 9, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

All of us are reluctant to see long term deals. Here's my top 5 bad contracts.

 

1 Pablo Sandoval $38M plus $5M buyout for doing NOTHING. (which is better than giving us negative war)

2 Hanley Ramirez $44M left unless it's not vested, he still has chance to redeem it.

3 David Price $31M per for another 5 years. Just feels like he'll need a surgery at some point and will lose out 2 more years of production. Could become 2nd bust.

4 Rick Porcello $20M per for two more years. I guess it's been a 'wash' for first two years. But if he doesn't turn it around, it's a bad deal for next two years.

5 Chris Young $7.5M thank goodness it's almost done

 

And I was all in on David Price. I thought DD had to sign Price. If he's healthy, maybe this will all work out.

 

Where's the next bad contract?

Edited September 9, 2017 by Nick

[Spudboy]

I don't see any urgency in signing guys before it is necessitated by pending free agency.

 

None of them are inclined to give any kind of home town discount so what is to be gained?

 

On the other hand, blowing your load on a guy earlier in the game ( see Big Dick as possible example ) has it's risks.

 

Suppose that they do sign Betts to an extension this year and he continues to be a .260 hitter with a good glove instead of the spectacular MVP type player he was a year ago?

 

What is to be gained by that? Spending money unnecessarily is f***ing dumb especially when this team has wasted so much money in current contracts.

[a700hitter]

I don't see any urgency in signing guys before it is necessitated by pending free agency.

 

None of them are inclined to give any kind of home town discount so what is to be gained?

 

On the other hand, blowing your load on a guy earlier in the game ( see Big Dick as possible example ) has it's risks.

 

Suppose that they do sign Betts to an extension this year and he continues to be a .260 hitter with a good glove instead of the spectacular MVP type player he was a year ago?

 

What is to be gained by that? Spending money unnecessarily is f***ing dumb especially when this team has wasted so much money in current contracts.

I agree. There is nothing to be gained except by the player who gets paid an inflated salary for some of the years when they would be under club control.

[OH FOY]

Good Post Spudboy. No need to extend him now. Players and Agents, are going to wait for Harper, and Machado, to set the market.

If I were Bogaerts, I would consider it. His 2nd half nose dives, are going to cost him. Was he injured last year?

Edited September 9, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Spudboy]

Good Post Spudboy. No need to extend him now. Players and Agents, are going to wait for Harper, and Machado, to set the market.

If I were Bogaerts, I would consider it. His 2nd half nose dives, are going to cost him. Was he injured last year?

 

Thanks.

 

No. I believe that Bogey just plain tuckered out last season. Maybe I'm wrong but it sure seems to have been that way.

 

As far as the 4 Killer Bees are concerned, I'm not sure we have established what any of them "are" going forward except possibly JBJ who while prone to streaks both good as well as bad, appears to be at least consistent in that trend. I'm not advocating signing him early either.

 

Let these guys earn their keep.

 

They can put up or shut up.

[S5Dewey]

I'd sign JBJ early but not at a slugger's price, more of a defensive player's price. Maybe the thing I like the most about JBJ is that he doesn't rely on his speed to make the plays. He has the innate ability to know where the ball is coming down and run to 'the spot'. That'll play better in the long term than someone like Ellsbury who depend(ed) on his speed to get there. I'd be looking at 5yr/$60-$75M. Bora$$ probably wouldn't advise him to take that but if not I'd pass and see what he looks like when his arb years are over.

[moonslav59]

Sox definitely got a 'surge' from adding Devers, Nunez and Reed at trade deadline. Having Devers for full year next year at 3B should equate to raising our 3B production out of near bottom in majors next year.

 

To me, that's our best hope along with getting bounce back years from some of our players that declined this year.

 

 

Something similar to what Beni I assume has done in LF.

 

Weird thing is, our LF OPS (.733) is worse than last year's (.759) despite Beni going FT. (Beni is .757 as a LF'er this year.)

 

I do think next year's LF OPS should be way better than .733. Add that to 3B and maybe improve at 1B, and that might be enough.

 

 

Fully recovered Carson Smith should do at leat as well as Reed, if not better. Plus it'll be full year's production. Maybe Thornburg gives us aded depth in 2nd half of 2018.

 

That's the big hope. Our pen did very well this year and could get much better without needing to spend anything.

 

 

What's becoming clearer is as with starting pitching, a team needs 10 starters to fill 9 positions. Super sub is a must and it ain't Brock Holt. It will be tough to replace Nunez, unless it is Nunez.

 

What to do with Fister? Do we offer him a two year, say $15M deal or just hope Wright returns 100% for 2018? Any starting pitching options in minors that did not make appearance in 2017?

 

I'd like to have Nunez back, but not if his cost prohibits us from fixing the 1B problem. We need a big hitter next year, and it's not going to be an OF'er, unless we DH him (JD Martinez?).

 

 

Will DD simply keep his fingers crossed and hope for Betts and Xanders' bats to return to 2016 level? (I think he'll settle for simple 'tweak' if win the whole thing, otherwise he'll make big splash.)

 

We may try to do what TB did last winter and catch lightening in a bottle (Morrison's 2017 outlier season).

 

One year fix or bridge to better FAs in 2019.

[notin]

2017 seems to be the Year of the Former Elite Prospect First Baseman Bust. Morrison, Smoak and Alonso all finally breaking out. But will any have staying power?

[Nick]

I don't see any urgency in signing guys before it is necessitated by pending free agency.

 

None of them are inclined to give any kind of home town discount so what is to be gained?

 

On the other hand, blowing your load on a guy earlier in the game ( see Big Dick as possible example ) has it's risks.

 

Suppose that they do sign Betts to an extension this year and he continues to be a .260 hitter with a good glove instead of the spectacular MVP type player he was a year ago?

 

What is to be gained by that? Spending money unnecessarily is f***ing dumb especially when this team has wasted so much money in current contracts.

 

So it's a NO to Pom extension?

[Emp9]

"Weird thing is, our LF OPS (.733) is worse than last year's (.759) despite Beni going FT. (Beni is .757 as a LF'er this year.)"

 

I would think Young and Holt hold atleast some of the responsibility for this though, no?

[Spudboy]

So it's a NO to Pom extension?

 

I had not considered him. I don't even know his contract status.

 

But if he has 2-3 arb years remaining what is the advantage in signing him early?

 

He is another one who really has not established who he is either in my opinion. He has had one good calendar season and that is it.

[Nick]

I had not considered him. I don't even know his contract status.

 

But if he has 2-3 arb years remaining what is the advantage in signing him early?

 

He is another one who really has not established who he is either in my opinion. He has had one good calendar season and that is it.

 

It was in jest. This is arbitration year 2 for him in 2017.

 

I actually agree with you. We should let 3 more years of both Betts and JBJ play out. If there's a trade to be made, you weigh all options and do it or don't.

Edited September 9, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

"Weird thing is, our LF OPS (.733) is worse than last year's (.759) despite Beni going FT. (Beni is .757 as a LF'er this year.)"

 

I would think Young and Holt hold atleast some of the responsibility for this though, no?

 

Of course, but it's kind of surprising Beni's OPS as a LF'er has been lower than last year's LF crew.

 

2017 LF crew

.760 Beni (443 OPS as LF'er)

.699 Young (131)

.679 Holt (31)

.397 Davis (13)

 

2016

.759 Holt (222)

.779 Young (190)

.856 Beni (102)

.615 Brentz (58)

.739 Swi (51)

.200 LaMarre (5)

.000 Castillo (3)

1.000 Shaw (1)

 

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

All of us are reluctant to see long term deals. Here's my top 5 bad contracts.

 

1 Pablo Sandoval $38M plus $5M buyout for doing NOTHING. (which is better than giving us negative war)

2 Hanley Ramirez $44M left unless it's not vested, he still has chance to redeem it.

3 David Price $31M per for another 5 years. Just feels like he'll need a surgery at some point and will lose out 2 more years of production. Could become 2nd bust.

4 Rick Porcello $20M per for two more years. I guess it's been a 'wash' for first two years. But if he doesn't turn it around, it's a bad deal for next two years.

5 Chris Young $7.5M thank goodness it's almost done

 

And I was all in on David Price. I thought DD had to sign Price. If he's healthy, maybe this will all work out.

 

Where's the next bad contract?

 

Pablo being the #1 worst contract is fair. I think that we have to wait on Hanley, Price, and Porcello to know how good or bad those contracts will eventually be, but I'm guessing you're just talking about for this year?

[Nick]

Pablo being the #1 worst contract is fair. I think that we have to wait on Hanley, Price, and Porcello to know how good or bad those contracts will eventually be, but I'm guessing you're just talking about for this year?

 

yes....

[cp176]

So it's a NO to Pom extension?

 

I would extend this big young lefty yesterday. Pitching is at too much of a premium. he is big, he is young, and he has a hell of a hook.

[harmony]

I would extend this big young lefty yesterday. Pitching is at too much of a premium. he is big, he is young, and he has a hell of a hook.

How many years (and how much money) would you offer Drew Pomeranz, who turns 29 in November?