A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[sk7326]

The WC game is a playoff round ... the league's postseason roster rules apply for the WC round ... that is the weirdest thing about the WC round - that you can reset the roster for the next round

[Bellhorn04]

I think the new WC system is rinky-dink. At the end of August there may still be some sub-.500 AL teams with a chance at a WC spot. But it was a smart move commercially to keep more fans interested longer.

[moonslav59]

I think the new WC system is rinky-dink. At the end of August there may still be some sub-.500 AL teams with a chance at a WC spot. But it was a smart move commercially to keep more fans interested longer.

 

I think it you look back at the history of the playoffs, since the WC was started, and I haven't looked, teams "near .500 who are still "in it" at the end of August are sometimes more in a divisional race than a WC race.

 

For example, the Pirates are 5.5 back of the Cubs and have a record of 58-63. They are 9 back in the wild card. However, the Royals and Twins are hanging around the .500 mark and are 6 games or less behind the Guardians for the Central Division play off berth but only a game behind the Angels for the last WC berth.

[moonslav59]

Top OPS players on Sox (including two- team players)

 

1.119 Devers

.805 Beni

.799 Nunez

.792 Betts

.767 HRam

.756 Moreland

.754 JBJ

.742 Young

.740 Bogey

.725 Vaz

 

Interesting notes:

 

None of our top 3 hitters were on the ML team on August 1st, 2016.

 

None of our main 10 hitters are below .725.

 

Five of the ten hitters fall within a .027 range (.740 to .767)

 

[oldtimer]

Very tough stretch ahead with 2 more against the Yankees and 4 very tough games against Cleveland. Now Bruce is hitting for them as well, so they are kind of a monster to slay.

[Nick]

Other than the closer, this pretty has to be the make up of bullpen to reduce cost. Spend the money elsewhere.

 

Workman Year 1

Scott Year 1

Barnes Year 2

Hembree Year 2

C Smith Year 3

Thornburg A2

Kelly A2

Abad A3

[Nick]

Now that Devers has filled in nicely at 3B, Thornburg deal does not sting as much.

 

We are 5 games up and we have a 3B with much higher ceiling than Shaw.

 

Injury sucks but I doubt he was damaged goods at the time of trade.

[Kimmi]

I think the new WC system is rinky-dink. At the end of August there may still be some sub-.500 AL teams with a chance at a WC spot. But it was a smart move commercially to keep more fans interested longer.

 

I like it for the fact that it gives more credence to winning the division. Before, it really made no difference whether you got in as a division winner or a wild card winner.

[Kimmi]

Now that Devers has filled in nicely at 3B, Thornburg deal does not sting as much.

 

We are 5 games up and we have a 3B with much higher ceiling than Shaw.

 

Injury sucks but I doubt he was damaged goods at the time of trade.

 

I'm thinking that the FO was planning on Devers as the long term solution at 3B with the possibility of him being called up late this year if necessary. They figured that between Pablo, Holt, Hernandez, etc., we could man 3B sufficiently. I was fine with that trade. In fact, I liked it.

 

The ironic part about this is that if we hadn't traded Shaw, we probably wouldn't be enjoying Devers right now.

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking that the FO was planning on Devers as the long term solution at 3B with the possibility of him being called up late this year if necessary. They figured that between Pablo, Holt, Hernandez, etc., we could man 3B sufficiently. I was fine with that trade. In fact, I liked it.

 

The ironic part about this is that if we hadn't traded Shaw, we probably wouldn't be enjoying Devers right now.

.

Maybe. Maybe not. We might have just not signed Moreland and planned on Shaw at 1B (at least vs lefties), or seen him end up there.

 

3B: Pablito & Co.

1B: HRam vs R/ Shaw vs L

DH: HRam vs L/ Young vs R

 

But, certainly the Devers call-up might have been delayed.

[moonslav59]

Tough loss.

 

Nunez appears to be returning to earth.

 

Devers is a Yankee killer.

 

Pen looked good, as did Sale, except for two pitches.

 

JBJ might be showing signs of snapping out of it.

[Station 13]

Devers is a stud. He gets to bat 7th because good things come to those who wait.

[Larry Cook]

Why can't our zombies hit sabathia? His stuff is not great.

[Bellhorn04]

I like it for the fact that it gives more credence to winning the division. Before, it really made no difference whether you got in as a division winner or a wild card winner.

 

That's the one point in its favor. But I don't think it was really meant to make things fairer so much as to keep more teams in it longer. Just my opinion.

[Maxbialystock]

Top OPS players on Sox (including two- team players)

 

1.119 Devers

.805 Beni

.799 Nunez

.792 Betts

.767 HRam

.756 Moreland

.754 JBJ

.742 Young

.740 Bogey

.725 Vaz

 

Interesting notes:

 

None of our top 3 hitters were on the ML team on August 1st, 2016.

 

None of our main 10 hitters are below .725.

 

Five of the ten hitters fall within a .027 range (.740 to .767)

 

 

Great notes, especially the third one. Those are the 5 who are also struggling right now.

 

Three of the top 4 are in the top of the lineup.

 

The first, Devers, has batted 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th. In addition to a great swing, I think he is good at reading pitches and maybe being further down in the order gives him more pitches to watch before he bats. He has 33 at bats batting 5th with an OPS of 1.018 and 40 at bats combined at 6th, 7th, and 9th with a combined OPS of 1.225--200 points higher than batting 5th. Just a theory with a very small sample size.

[Maxbialystock]

Tough loss.

 

Nunez appears to be returning to earth.

 

Devers is a Yankee killer.

 

Pen looked good, as did Sale, except for two pitches.

 

JBJ might be showing signs of snapping out of it.

 

Mostly agree. Sale's first dinger (3 runs) was a mistake, but the second was a low slider that might have been called a ball it was so low. That was just a heckuva swing. But Sale was also helped by the terrific grab by JBJ, who timed that leap perfectly. Otherwise, a good bet for a triple.

 

The top six in the order were 2 for 22 with 1 run scored, so they collectively were our biggest problem. Goat of the game has to be Bogaerts, 0-3 with 2 K's, including one on three pitches with the bases loaded in the 8th. He has a tough time with sliders. I would switch him and Devers were it not that, with 1 or 2 men on, Devers will get walked to get to Bogie, depending on the pitcher.

[Maxbialystock]

Speaking of Bogaerts, this is his fourth full year with the Sox, and his WAR ratings for those four seasons are .2, 4.6, 3.7, and 1.0 (so far). Only part of that 1.0 can be explained by his OPS drop from .802 in 2016 to .736 now. The bigger part is his defensive rating/ranking--pretty close to last among full-time SS's in MLB. So what gives with Bogie? Injuries?

[Bellhorn04]

Speaking of Bogaerts, this is his fourth full year with the Sox, and his WAR ratings for those four seasons are .2, 4.6, 3.7, and 1.0 (so far). Only part of that 1.0 can be explained by his OPS drop from .802 in 2016 to .736 now. The bigger part is his defensive rating/ranking--pretty close to last among full-time SS's in MLB. So what gives with Bogie? Injuries?

 

The injury might have played a role, but we'll never know for sure. In MLB negative stuff can snowball and a guy just can't come out of a bad stretch that season.

[oldtimer]

The injury might have played a role, but we'll never know for sure. In MLB negative stuff can snowball and a guy just can't come out of a bad stretch that season.

 

Its hard to pinpoint Bogey's issue hitting. Every year he's played, his first half has been very good but in all but one year, his second half has seen a big drop off. This year it just looks like he isn't seeing the ball. He was injured, but that didn't impact his eyes, so it may be some sort of a negative karma that he can't find his way out of. We need him, but he only shoows up sporatically.

[Kimmi]

That's the one point in its favor. But I don't think it was really meant to make things fairer so much as to keep more teams in it longer. Just my opinion.

 

I don't disagree that keeping more teams in it longer was probably the main reason for the decision.

 

On that note, there are currently 7 teams in the AL within 4 games of the 2nd wildcard spot. Some of the teams have a lot of spots to jump over, but a good 2 week run can make a big difference.

[Kimmi]

Great notes, especially the third one. Those are the 5 who are also struggling right now.

 

Three of the top 4 are in the top of the lineup.

 

The first, Devers, has batted 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th. In addition to a great swing, I think he is good at reading pitches and maybe being further down in the order gives him more pitches to watch before he bats. He has 33 at bats batting 5th with an OPS of 1.018 and 40 at bats combined at 6th, 7th, and 9th with a combined OPS of 1.225--200 points higher than batting 5th. Just a theory with a very small sample size.

 

I read something this morning that Devers doesn't really study video of opposing pitchers, nor does he sit on certain pitches. He just goes up there and swings. I just don't think he realizes how hard baseball is supposed to be. LOL

 

Not that I'm advocating it one way or another, but I am sure Devers will be batting clean up (or 3rd) before too much longer.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of Bogaerts, this is his fourth full year with the Sox, and his WAR ratings for those four seasons are .2, 4.6, 3.7, and 1.0 (so far). Only part of that 1.0 can be explained by his OPS drop from .802 in 2016 to .736 now. The bigger part is his defensive rating/ranking--pretty close to last among full-time SS's in MLB. So what gives with Bogie? Injuries?

 

I think his defense has taken a step backwards for 2 years in a row after seemingly improving in 2015.

UZR/150

-3.7 2014

+0.9 2015

-2.8 2016

-2.2 2017

-1.2 Career

 

DRS

-9

-1

-10

-13- so far this year

-31 career

 

fangraphs has is WAR at 1.9 this year after seeing 4.3 and 4.7 the two years prior.

 

He has a career 11.4 WAR in 586 games- that's about 4 seasons of 145 games each or an average WAR of about 3.0 for 155 games or so.

 

Hopefully, 2017 is just a blip, but he might not even reach half the WAR he had in 2016 or 2015. He's not alone:

 

WAR

2017/2016

1.9/4.8 JBJ (might barely reach 50% of 2016)

-0.1/2.6 HRam

1.9/ 5.2 Pedey

4.5/7.8 Betts (looks like he will reach over 60% of 2016)

0.2/2.5 Leon

-0.3/1.1 Young

-0.5/0.2 Holt (was over 2.0 in 2014 & 2015)

 

 

 

 

[Nick]

Brock Holt is a joke but John Farrell is a bigger one.

 

The day before Devers big home run vs Chapman, he benched Devers vs a left hander, BUT started Holt instead. (it may have been the same game).

 

Is he a f***ing idiot? He actually thinks Holt hits better than Devers vs lefties?

 

Manageres 'out think' themselves too often It's okay to have thoughts inside the box if outside the box thinking is worse.

[moonslav59]

Brock Holt is a joke but John Farrell is a bigger one.

 

The day before Devers big home run vs Chapman, he benched Devers vs a left hander, BUT started Holt instead. (it may have been the same game).

 

Is he a f***ing idiot? He actually thinks Holt hits better than Devers vs lefties?

 

Manageres 'out think' themselves too often It's okay to have thoughts inside the box if outside the box thinking is worse.

 

...and it's not like Devers needed a rest. We've had more days off recently that I have ever seen this time of year:

 

Aug 2, 7, 10 and 17

[Larry Cook]

...and it's not like Devers needed a rest. We've had more days off recently that I have ever seen this time of year:

 

Aug 2, 7, 10 and 17

 

Where would we be without devers?? Scary to think about.

 

Also what is wrong with mookie??

[Bellhorn04]

Where would we be without devers?? Scary to think about.

 

Also what is wrong with mookie??

 

As disappointing as Mookie's current numbers are, if he gets hot he can still end up with another excellent season.

Edited August 20, 2017 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

Where would we be without devers?? Scary to think about.

 

Also what is wrong with mookie??

 

Nothing, starting today, Mookie is going to go on a wicked hot streak.

[Nick]

Yankees owe Chapman 4 more years at $17M per. Is that what's to going to take to re-sign Kimbrel after 2018? May need a cheaper replacement.

[Bellhorn04]

Yankees owe Chapman 4 more years at $17M per. Is that what's to going to take to re-sign Kimbrel after 2018? May need a cheaper replacement.

 

There's virtually no chance they re-sign Kimbrel.

[Nick]

There's virtually no chance they re-sign Kimbrel.

 

Obviously money needed elsewhere? Asking price too high?