Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[oldtimer]

My hope for the Sox in this late August stretch beginning with the Tampa Bay series is that they would win the series against the weaker teams and split with the stronger teams like Cleveland. Despite looking ordinary against Tampa Bay, they won that series and losing the first two against Cleveland, they came back to split. On schedule as far as I'm concerned. The Yankees will not buzz through their schedule and if the Sox can do what I had hoped for, we should maintain a very nice lead going into September.

 

A bright spot would be the return of E-Rod, but that may not happen until the end of August. Still not sure when Wright is scheduled to return and Sale now looks like a Sept return. So we go forward with a depleted staff. Our offense has to produce to get through the last week of August in good shape.

[moonslav59]

With Price looking more and more like an ace, we'd be pretty damn strong going into the playoffs with a healthy Sale & Price. Porcello & ERod can duke it out for the 3-4 slots, and the others move to the pen to strengthen it.

[Kimmi]

On the B-R Game Log page you just click on the left-hand side of the first game you want and the last game you want and it gives you the numbers for that stretch.

 

And on Fangraphs Game Log page, there are calendars on which you can click on the start and end dates.

[Slasher9]

Love this JBj kid. Let’s keep him.....

[Station 13]

.848 OPS in the 2nd half. Not bad.

[moonslav59]

Let's hope he can keep it up through October.

[redsoxrules]

I'm still 50/50 on JBJ.

I mean outside of his long hitting streak in 2016 he was garbage otherwise at the plate.

Same for 2015, he had a good month that boosted his stats. and this year again, complete garbage the first 3 months. He needs to be more consistent. Too many long stretches were he's MIA.

[mvp 78]

Package JBJ and Pedroia for a starting pitcher.

[kenmeister]

Package JBJ and Pedroia for a starting pitcher.

 

Not a second baseman?

[notin]

Package JBJ and Pedroia for a starting pitcher.

 

But the other team wanted Devers. Do we still make that trade?

[notin]

Love this JBj kid. Let’s keep him.....

 

Agreed. I could be dazzled to like a trade for him, but I doubt it happens...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm still 50/50 on JBJ.

I mean outside of his long hitting streak in 2016 he was garbage otherwise at the plate.

Same for 2015, he had a good month that boosted his stats. and this year again, complete garbage the first 3 months. He needs to be more consistent. Too many long stretches were he's MIA.

 

If he was a great fielder and a consistently good hitter he'd be Mookie Betts.

[moonslav59]

I'm still 50/50 on JBJ.

I mean outside of his long hitting streak in 2016 he was garbage otherwise at the plate.

Same for 2015, he had a good month that boosted his stats. and this year again, complete garbage the first 3 months. He needs to be more consistent. Too many long stretches were he's MIA.

 

He's gone 2 months this year, but you are right about his too long stretches of weak hitting.

 

To me, he's a big plus even at .600. Anything more is gravy. He's at near 100 points of gravy this year.

 

We'd all like every one of our players to be consistent, but to me, just give me what we need, even if it is mostly or always in bunches.

[Bellhorn04]

703!

[Slasher9]

703!

 

some big hits too. which means he will probably get the night off.

[notin]

I'm still 50/50 on JBJ.

I mean outside of his long hitting streak in 2016 he was garbage otherwise at the plate.

Same for 2015, he had a good month that boosted his stats. and this year again, complete garbage the first 3 months. He needs to be more consistent. Too many long stretches were he's MIA.

 

Would you have traded Ozzie Smith because of his inconsistent bat?

[moonslav59]

703!

 

That's about 100 points of gravy.

 

He's at .782 since May 12th, when his OPS was at .510.

 

That's about 14-15 weeks of, more or less, steady hitting.

 

Let's hop he can stay near .780 consistently going forward. That would be almost 200 points of gravy.

 

He's also been getting some key late inning hits- something we didn't see much of earlier this year.

[oldtimer]

That's about 100 points of gravy.

 

He's at .782 since May 12th, when his OPS was at .510.

 

That's about 14-15 weeks of, more or less, steady hitting.

 

Let's hop he can stay near .780 consistently going forward. That would be almost 200 points of gravy.

 

He's also been getting some key late inning hits- something we didn't see much of earlier this year.

 

He is no longer one of a string of hitters that were easy outs at the bottom of the order. He is hittting the ball hard and getting quite a few extra base hits. His defense and durability have been excellent and now with the hitting he is enhancing his market value.

 

Come to think of it, Nunez and Kinsler are also hitting much better so other than catcher, the bottom of our order is now a real threat to opposing pitchers.

[S5Dewey]

He is no longer one of a string of hitters that were easy outs at the bottom of the order. He is hittting the ball hard and getting quite a few extra base hits. His defense and durability have been excellent and now with the hitting he is enhancing his market value.

 

Come to think of it, Nunez and Kinsler are also hitting much better so other than catcher, the bottom of our order is now a real threat to opposing pitchers.

 

"Enhancing his market value?" Sure, and so is Mookie, and Beni, too. In fact, if I were forced to trade any one of the three at this time it would be Beni.

 

This is an outfield you build around, not trade away.

[S5Dewey]

This whole idea of trading JBJ reminds me of what I once heard someone say about his son.

 

"This kid of mine, he's a nice kid but once he gets a bad idea in his head there's no talking him out of it. Everyone gets ideas and most of them say, 'Bad idea, throw it out, Bad idea, throw it out, Bad idea, throw it out' but once my son gets a bad idea he muckles right onto it an nothing will make him let go of it!"

 

Trading JBJ is a bad idea.

 

(And please don't come back at me with some idea like, "But what about if we could work a trade where we get Scherzer and Kershaw straight-up for JBJ? /s/ Every player is available if the price is right but in reality the asking price for JBJ should be so high that no GM would go for it. )

[moonslav59]

"Enhancing his market value?" Sure, and so is Mookie, and Beni, too. In fact, if I were forced to trade any one of the three at this time it would be Beni.

 

This is an outfield you build around, not trade away.

 

Kinda reminds me of Rice-Lynn-Evans, but we traded away Lynn.

 

I hope to see these three with the Sox for many years to come.

[moonslav59]

This whole idea of trading JBJ reminds me of what I once heard someone say about his son.

 

"This kid of mine, he's a nice kid but once he gets a bad idea in his head there's no talking him out of it. Everyone gets ideas and most of them say, 'Bad idea, throw it out, Bad idea, throw it out, Bad idea, throw it out' but once my son gets a bad idea he muckles right onto it an nothing will make him let go of it!"

 

Trading JBJ is a bad idea.

 

(And please don't come back at me with some idea like, "But what about if we could work a trade where we get Scherzer and Kershaw straight-up for JBJ? /s/ Every player is available if the price is right but in reality the asking price for JBJ should be so high that no GM would go for it. )

 

I totally agree.

 

I'm sure many a GM would want JBJ and pay a lot for him, despite what some think here.

 

I doubt any GM would match what I'd like in return.

[notin]

I totally agree.

 

I'm sure many a GM would want JBJ and pay a lot for him, despite what some think here.

 

I doubt any GM would match what I'd like in return.

 

There should be a price for JBJ, and Dombrowski has one.

 

So far, we know it is more than Edwin Encarnacion and more than Yasiel Puig.

 

Using fWAR as a guideline, Bradley has been worth 10. fWAR since 2016. That makes him roughly the equivalent of Buster Posey, Justin Upton, Trea Turner, Eugenio Suarez, Kyle Seager and Javier Baez for position players and Zack Greinke, Jon Gray, Chris Archer and Jose Quintana as pitchers. (Also Rick Porcello, but obviously not going to happen.) And there are others fairly close, but I limited the list.

 

 

Greinke, Upton and Posey all have long term expensive deals in place, unlike Bradley, which makes them lesser trade candidates, since you have to pay more cash for essentially the same contribution. Seager also has a pretty big deal and isn't having the best year right now, either. But it is for less than the previous ones mentioned.

 

But would you trade Bradley straight up for any of the others or someone I just didn't mention?

[Jasonbay44]

There should be a price for JBJ, and Dombrowski has one.

 

So far, we know it is more than Edwin Encarnacion and more than Yasiel Puig.

 

Using fWAR as a guideline, Bradley has been worth 10. fWAR since 2016. That makes him roughly the equivalent of Buster Posey, Justin Upton, Trea Turner, Eugenio Suarez, Kyle Seager and Javier Baez for position players and Zack Greinke, Jon Gray, Chris Archer and Jose Quintana as pitchers. (Also Rick Porcello, but obviously not going to happen.) And there are others fairly close, but I limited the list.

 

 

Greinke, Upton and Posey all have long term expensive deals in place, unlike Bradley, which makes them lesser trade candidates, since you have to pay more cash for essentially the same contribution. Seager also has a pretty big deal and isn't having the best year right now, either. But it is for less than the previous ones mentioned.

 

But would you trade Bradley straight up for any of the others or someone I just didn't mention?

I'm a huge JBJ fan but would definitely move him for Javier Baez, maybe Suarez and Turner.. the others is a definite no.

[moonslav59]

There should be a price for JBJ, and Dombrowski has one.

 

So far, we know it is more than Edwin Encarnacion and more than Yasiel Puig.

 

Using fWAR as a guideline, Bradley has been worth 10. fWAR since 2016. That makes him roughly the equivalent of Buster Posey, Justin Upton, Trea Turner, Eugenio Suarez, Kyle Seager and Javier Baez for position players and Zack Greinke, Jon Gray, Chris Archer and Jose Quintana as pitchers. (Also Rick Porcello, but obviously not going to happen.) And there are others fairly close, but I limited the list.

 

 

Greinke, Upton and Posey all have long term expensive deals in place, unlike Bradley, which makes them lesser trade candidates, since you have to pay more cash for essentially the same contribution. Seager also has a pretty big deal and isn't having the best year right now, either. But it is for less than the previous ones mentioned.

 

But would you trade Bradley straight up for any of the others or someone I just didn't mention?

 

Suarez, who is signed for just $9.4M AVV until 2025 would do it for me.

 

Seager's $16M x 3 with a $15M 4th year option is a close call. We could trade Bogey for something special or move him to 3B and Devers to 1B.

 

Baez has 3 arbs left to JBJ's two, so I'd probably say yes to that one, too.

 

Without thinking hard and looking at contracts, I'd say no to the rest.

Edited August 30, 2018 by moonslav59

[notin]

I'm a huge JBJ fan but would definitely move him for Javier Baez, maybe Suarez and Turner.. the others is a definite no.

 

And the Cubs might be OK with that deal, given their CF is currently an Almora/Happ platoon. Happ is best suited to other positions (like 2B, where Baez primarily plays). Almora is a pretty good defensive CF in his own right, but Bradley is a definite upgrade.

 

Obviously CF defense is not something the Reds need, although dealing Suarez would clear a path for Nick Senzel, assuming he is ever healthy again, and they stop trying to plug him in at 2B. It does leave them with some decisions on Billy Hamilton.

 

I do doubt the Natinals consider moving Turner for Bradley...

[notin]

Suarez, who is signed for just $9.4M AVV until 2025 would do it for me.

 

Seager's $16M x 3 with a $15M 4th year option is a close call. We could trade Bogey for something special or move him to 3B and Devers to 1B.

 

Baez has 3 arbs left to JBJ's two, so I'd probably say yes to that one, too.

 

Without thinking hard and looking at contracts, I'd say no to the rest.

 

Wrong Seager. Kyle already plays 3B. No need to reposition Bogaerts...

[S5Dewey]

I'm a huge JBJ fan but would definitely move him for Javier Baez, maybe Suarez and Turner.. the others is a definite no.

 

Again we're taking WAR, with all it's accepted flaws and using it as a benchmark. We say that we accept the fact that WAR is flawed and yet here we have an entire argument as to who he should be traded for based on.... WAR.

 

As for me me. I wouldn't trade him for any one of those guys.

 

Since we're using WAR as a measure of value, and for the sake of this I'll assume it has more value than I believe it does....

WAR takes all the historical value, the good and the bad, and tries to compile it into one value. In the case of JBJ it considers all the bad months evenly with all the good months and it's MY OPINION that he's solved many of his problems that caused the bad months.

 

I've always believed that what a player has done recently ("recently" being a matter of opinion) has more bearing on who a player is that what he did in the past. Therefore - again, my opinion - is that his true worth now is more than his WAR reflects.

 

What I see us having right now, today, is two of the best outfielders in baseball with one being slightly better than the other. However, B-R WAR says it's not that close. It says JBJ is worth 1.8 wins above a AAAA player while Mookie is 8.9 wins above that same player.

 

That may (or may not) be true if one includes the first two months of the season but it certainly doesn't reflect the JBJ that's been playing for the past couple of months. You can say what you want about his being streaky but (IIRC) JBJ's problems were identified here as his approach at the plate and the fact that he was pulling the ball too much, both of which have greatly improved over the past couple of months. Color me unduly optimistic if you like but IMO the days of the extended slumps are over.

 

I believe that what the receiving team would be getting if we trade him is the JBJ who's playing today and his overall WAR doesn't reflect who he is now. Therefore if we trade him for any of those players with a WAR of about 10 we'd be selling low on him.

Edited August 31, 2018 by S5Dewey

[notin]

Again we're taking WAR, with all it's accepted flaws and using it as a benchmark. We say that we accept the fact that WAR is flawed and yet here we have an entire argument as to who he should be traded for based on.... WAR.

 

As for me me. I wouldn't trade him for any one of those guys.

 

Since we're using WAR as a measure of value, and for the sake of this I'll assume it has more value than I believe it does....

WAR takes all the historical value, the good and the bad, and tries to compile it into one value. In the case of JBJ it considers all the bad months evenly with all the good months and it's MY OPINION that he's solved many of his problems that caused the bad months.

 

I've always believed that what a player has done recently ("recently" being a matter of opinion) has more bearing on who a player is that what he did in the past. Therefore - again, my opinion - is that his true worth now is more than his WAR reflects.

 

What I see us having right now, today, is two of the best outfielders in baseball with one being slightly better than the other. However, B-R WAR says it's not that close. It says JBJ is worth 1.8 wins above a AAAA player while Mookie is 8.9 wins above that same player.

 

That may (or may not) be true if one includes the first two months of the season but it certainly doesn't reflect the JBJ that's been playing for the past couple of months. You can say what you want about his being streaky but (IIRC) JBJ's problems were identified here as his approach at the plate and the fact that he was pulling the ball too much, both of which have greatly improved over the past couple of months. Color me unduly optimistic if you like but IMO the days of the extended slumps are over.

 

I believe that what the receiving team would be getting if we trade him is the JBJ who's playing today and his overall WAR doesn't reflect who he is now. Therefore if we trade him for any of those players with a WAR of about 10 we'd be selling low on him.

 

Seriously, it was a jumping off point for starting the discussion. Was another anti- WAR diatribe really necessary?

 

Also, why do you operate on the assumptions that 1) Bradley has fixed all his problems and 2) none of those other players have? Javier Baez, for example, is mentioned in MVP discussions this year.

 

And really, I’m open to another method of finding reasonable comps for Bradley for this discussion, especially without getting into pipe dream scenarios. This isn’t about trading Bradley as much as it is about what the expectations should be if Bradley were to be dealt by Dombrowski. Personally I’d rather see Bradley extended. But neither is my call...

[harmony]

Again we're taking WAR, with all it's accepted flaws and using it as a benchmark. We say that we accept the fact that WAR is flawed and yet here we have an entire argument as to who he should be traded for based on.... WAR.

 

As for me me. I wouldn't trade him for any one of those guys.

 

Since we're using WAR as a measure of value, and for the sake of this I'll assume it has more value than I believe it does....

WAR takes all the historical value, the good and the bad, and tries to compile it into one value. In the case of JBJ it considers all the bad months evenly with all the good months and it's MY OPINION that he's solved many of his problems that caused the bad months.

 

I've always believed that what a player has done recently ("recently" being a matter of opinion) has more bearing on who a player is that what he did in the past. Therefore - again, my opinion - is that his true worth now is more than his WAR reflects.

 

What I see us having right now, today, is two of the best outfielders in baseball with one being slightly better than the other. However, B-R WAR says it's not that close. It says JBJ is worth 1.8 wins above a AAAA player while Mookie is 8.9 wins above that same player.

 

That may (or may not) be true if one includes the first two months of the season but it certainly doesn't reflect the JBJ that's been playing for the past couple of months. You can say what you want about his being streaky but (IIRC) JBJ's problems were identified here as his approach at the plate and the fact that he was pulling the ball too much, both of which have greatly improved over the past couple of months. Color me unduly optimistic if you like but IMO the days of the extended slumps are over.

 

I believe that what the receiving team would be getting if we trade him is the JBJ who's playing today and his overall WAR doesn't reflect who he is now. Therefore if we trade him for any of those players with a WAR of about 10 we'd be selling low on him.

This is not the first time 28-year-old Jackie Bradley Jr. has figured it out:

 

New dad Jackie Bradley Jr. AL Player of Month

WWW.MLB.COM

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BALTIMORE -- Jackie Bradley Jr. went 2-for-2 on Thursday and he wasn't even in the Red Sox's lineup. Thanks largely to his recent 29-game hitting streak, Bradley earned American League Player of the Month honors for the first time Thursday, but it was hardly the highlight of his afternoon.The Red

 

We should caution against cherry-picking his recent performance as indicative just as we should caution against cherry-picking his early-season performance as indicative.