A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[harmony]

Pom has been our second best starter for the last month. he gets paid $3 million or so and we gave up a guy that will not make the bigs before 2020 or 2021. I can live with that.

To be precise, Drew Pomeranz has a 2017 salary of $4.45 million.

Edited June 23, 2017 by harmony

[cp176]

At least Peavy had a much larger track record of success where is a lot of people were skeptical that Pomeranz was a starter long term (still are). Also, I'd argue that Espinoza has a much larger ceiling that Iglesias did.

 

It actually could be argued that what you got in Pomeranz for a trade that cost you Espinoza was all you were going to get. If you can get anyone to trade you a young #2 or #3 guy in your rotation for a young (teenager) who has not accomplished much at any level (just starting out) you might want to keep trading with them. With his "high ceiling", Espinoza may someday develop but it was a big gamble to take him regardless of his potential. Now don't get me wrong - I want to see him develop. With his recent injuries, what would his timetable be to appear again at any level?

[Hugh2]

Pom has been our second best starter for the last month. he gets paid $3 million or so and we gave up a guy that will not make the bigs before 2020 or 2021. I can live with that.

 

If your 2nd best pitcher is a guy who gives up more hits than innings pitched and can't get out of the 6th then you are not a world series caliber team and you're a deeply flawed team.

[Hugh2]

It actually could be argued that what you got in Pomeranz for a trade that cost you Espinoza was all you were going to get. If you can get anyone to trade you a young #2 or #3 guy in your rotation for a young (teenager) who has not accomplished much at any level (just starting out) you might want to keep trading with them. With his "high ceiling", Espinoza may someday develop but it was a big gamble to take him regardless of his potential. Now don't get me wrong - I want to see him develop. With his recent injuries, what would his timetable be to appear again at any level?

 

Who knows, he's so young and advanced for his age it might not set him back as much as people think. No matter where he was he was going to need a few years to build up his innings. It will interesting to see how he progresses from this point forward.

[a700hitter]

If your 2nd best pitcher is a guy who gives up more hits than innings pitched and can't get out of the 6th then you are not a world series caliber team and you're a deeply flawed team.

He's supposed to be our #4/5. We need Price and Porcello to step up into the 2/3 roles. Pom is a very good value at #4/5 for his salary.

[a700hitter]

Who knows, he's so young and advanced for his age it might not set him back as much as people think. No matter where he was he was going to need a few years to build up his innings. It will interesting to see how he progresses from this point forward.

Or he may never make it to the majors at all.

[Maxbialystock]

If your 2nd best pitcher is a guy who gives up more hits than innings pitched and can't get out of the 6th then you are not a world series caliber team and you're a deeply flawed team.

 

I think you've twisted things a little. Overall our three best this year are Sale, Price, and Rodriguez. Right now Pom is our 2d best because of recent starts, but he lacks the repertoire to be a real #2.

 

Wherever you put POM, I don't think many would say the Sox are a World Series team right now. Bullpen is good enough, but the rotation and hitting are not. Infield fielding is suspect. Baserunning is suspect. But other teams have flaws too, so the Sox are definitely playoff contenders.

[moonslav59]

Signed who and for how much?

 

My point was that Kimbrel was getting paid what a top FA closer was getting at the time of the trade, so it was like paying for a FA closer (like signing one) AND giving up top prospects to do so.

[a700hitter]

To be precise, Drew Pomeranz has a 2017 salary of $4.45 million.

Still very cheap, even when precise.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel is not making top closer money and until those prospects start to show any promise at a high level, there is no reason not to like the trade for a guy as dominant as kimbrel. Margot is meh so far.

 

At the time of the trade he was making very close to top FA closer money. That was my point.

 

I even said that with FA closer prices going up, the trade looks better now than it did at the time.

 

I still don't like trades like that for a closer- even a top one.

 

I said at the time, and I still believe it, I'm happy as hell he's on our team, but I still dislike the trade. It's not because I had high hoped for Margot playing on the Sox, but for a package like that, I'd have prefer a SP'er making less than $13M a year.

[a700hitter]

My point was that Kimbrel was getting paid what a top FA closer was getting at the time of the trade, so it was like paying for a FA closer (like signing one) AND giving up top prospects to do so.

The FA market exploded at the time we got Kimbrel and his salary is below market for where he is in the pecking order for closers.

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Edited June 24, 2017 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

The FA market exploded at the time we got Kimbrel and his salary is below market for where he is in the pecking order for closers.

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We got Kimbrel in the winter of 2015-2016. Chapman made $8M in 2015 (not as a FA) and $11.3M in 2016.

 

Kimbrel was making NEAR TOP FA money at THE TIME OF THE TRADE!

 

Please don't make me explain my point again.

[Spudboy]

Well someone has to have the biggest pecker in this discussion!

[a700hitter]

We got Kimbrel in the winter of 2015-2016. Chapman made $8M in 2015 (not as a FA) and $11.3M in 2016.

 

Kimbrel was making NEAR TOP FA money at THE TIME OF THE TRADE!

 

Please don't make me explain my point again.

But the market was about a month away from changing significantly. Maybe DD knew that, and I still disagree with you on both points. I view the acquisition of a dominant guy like Kimbrel to be a good bargain financially and what we paid in prospects. You don't need to explain yourself again, because I have disagreed with your assessment of the trade since day 1.

[Nick]

But the market was about a month away from changing significantly. Maybe DD knew that, and I still disagree with you on both points. I view the acquisition of a dominant guy like Kimbrel to be a good bargain financially and what we paid in prospects. You don't need to explain yourself again, because I have disagreed with your assessment of the trade since day 1.

 

Doesn't Moon also have to account for the draft pick we would have lost had the Sox signed Kimbrel as a FA?

 

So it's not FA money plus prospectS. It's prospects less first round pick, no?

[Bellhorn04]

We got Kimbrel in the winter of 2015-2016. Chapman made $8M in 2015 (not as a FA) and $11.3M in 2016.

 

Kimbrel was making NEAR TOP FA money at THE TIME OF THE TRADE!

 

Please don't make me explain my point again.

 

Maybe give Dombrowski and the FO some credit for foreseeing where the market was headed. They do consider things like that, or they should.

[mvp 78]

We got Kimbrel in the winter of 2015-2016. Chapman made $8M in 2015 (not as a FA) and $11.3M in 2016.

 

Kimbrel was making NEAR TOP FA money at THE TIME OF THE TRADE!

 

Please don't make me explain my point again.

It's not a very good point though.

[S5Dewey]

I'd have prefer a SP'er making less than $13M a year.

 

Ya. I would have preferred that too, but I doubt that SP making less than $13M/yr going to replace what Kimbrel is bringing to the team. And had we done that we'd still need a closer.

 

Another of those things I keep harping on (because I see it as being obvious) is that often times playoff berths are decided by a win or two. IMO what Kimbrel is doing is going to net more wins than a $13M SP.

 

Only the Fenway Bean Counters know the financial difference between making the PO's and not making them but the FO must believe it's worth Kimbrel's salary to have him doing what he's doing.

[Jack Flap]

At the time I thought it was a lot to give up for a closer - still kind of do, but the way Kimbrel has performed this year and the way the market for good relief pitching has boiled over since then (look at what Theo gave up for a 3-month rental of Chapman, among other examples) makes the deal a lot easier to swallow. Ultimately I think it will probably belong in the same bucket as the Sale trade, where both teams will likely end up pretty happy with what they got.

 

The real f***-up, in retrospect, was not signing Miller before the 2015 season. That was a perfect opportunity to solidify the back end of the pen for a few years to come, but Cherington seemed to be relying on Koji to continue being immortal at that point without any real plan to replace him.

 

Also, I have the biggest pecker in this discussion.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd have prefer a SP'er making less than $13M a year.

 

Ya. I would have preferred that too, but I doubt that SP making less than $13M/yr going to replace what Kimbrel is bringing to the team. And had we done that we'd still need a closer.

 

Another of those things I keep harping on (because I see it as being obvious) is that often times playoff berths are decided by a win or two. IMO what Kimbrel is doing is going to net more wins than a $13M SP.

 

Only the Fenway Bean Counters know the financial difference between making the PO's and not making them but the FO must believe it's worth Kimbrel's salary to have him doing what he's doing.

 

Once again this is where WAR can provide some interesting data.

 

If Kimbrel maintains his current pace he could end up with a WAR of 4 (which is about as high as a reliever can possibly score). That would make him worth about $30 million this year according to FanGraphs.

[moonslav59]

But the market was about a month away from changing significantly. Maybe DD knew that, and I still disagree with you on both points. I view the acquisition of a dominant guy like Kimbrel to be a good bargain financially and what we paid in prospects. You don't need to explain yourself again, because I have disagreed with your assessment of the trade since day 1.

 

A year and a month away.

 

Look, I've said the cost of closers going up has made the deal look better, however $13M is still a lot of money to pay a closer.

 

Is $13M currently too much to pay the best closer? No, not as a FA, it is clearly not, but Kimbrel was not the very best last year- no even close.

 

The money side of the deal looks acceptable not that he is top dog and the prices of top 5 closers have gone up significantly.

 

We're still paying "near top dollar" for our closer AND we gave up several very good prospects for a RP'er. One or the other was fine with me, but not both. I think my point is pretty clear, pretty logical and easy to understand. I'm fine with anyone disagreeing with my point, but I think it is valid.

 

My wish, at the time of the trade was not to hold onto these prospects, it was actually to expand the package for something much bigger...like a Chris Sale trade, so using the argument that these prospects might not ever amount to anything is not an argument to use against my position. Since there were no great closers on the FA market that year, my plan was to patchwork until the next season. I suggested signing Clippard and trading for K-Rod among other ideas.

 

In hindsight, having to sign a top closer last winter would have cost much more than $13M, but it still would not have cost us 4 prospects.

 

Of course, if Kimbrel finishes out his contract pitching like 2017 and we win a ring, the deal will look fine, but Kimbrel had not pitched this well in several years before the trade and may not next year. He pitched a little worse than I expected last year. When we traded for him I thought he was about the 3rd best closer in MLB. My dislike of the trade had nothing to do with thinking Kimbrel was not an elite closer. I thought he was and expected him to continue being a top 3-5 closer.

 

It's hard to imagine this team winning without a top closer. Foulke, Pablebon and Uehara were significant factors in each of our 3 rings, but none were as costly to acquire as Kimbrel-- not even close.

 

Maybe my philosophy on closer value differs from some here, and I'm fine with that, I just made a point about how valuable (top) closers have been to us, but even in hindsight, I still think we overpaid. I'm fine with "overpaying" for Sale. I'm not for a RP'er.

[moonslav59]

At the time I thought it was a lot to give up for a closer - still kind of do, but the way Kimbrel has performed this year and the way the market for good relief pitching has boiled over since then (look at what Theo gave up for a 3-month rental of Chapman, among other examples) makes the deal a lot easier to swallow. Ultimately I think it will probably belong in the same bucket as the Sale trade, where both teams will likely end up pretty happy with what they got.

 

The real f***-up, in retrospect, was not signing Miller before the 2015 season. That was a perfect opportunity to solidify the back end of the pen for a few years to come, but Cherington seemed to be relying on Koji to continue being immortal at that point without any real plan to replace him.

 

Also, I have the biggest pecker in this discussion.

 

It's not the size, it's the sustainability that matters, and I have you all beat there!

 

I totally agree on Miller, and think we could have even made him our 1-2 inning closer and then used the Kimbrel prospects for someone like Quintana.

 

I realize much of my point is speculative, and we could have gone wrong with the choice of starter we might have traded for. I think I even mentioned I'd have been okay with the trade had we gotten the healthy Tyson Ross with Kimbrel, but that would not have been any better in hindsight.

[moonslav59]

Once again this is where WAR can provide some interesting data.

 

If Kimbrel maintains his current pace he could end up with a WAR of 4 (which is about as high as a reliever can possibly score). That would make him worth about $30 million this year according to FanGraphs.

 

fangraphs had him at $9.8M last year- meaning he didn't even earn his paycheck.

 

If Kimbrel keeps pitching like a $30M closer the rest of his contract, even if we don't win a ring, the deal will look like a good one.

 

FYI: Clippard made just $4.1 M last year and his value was $4.8M. KRod made $5.5M in 2016 and was valued at $4.8M. Both were not as good as Kimbrel last year,

and I never thought they would be, but together, they would have been decent enough.

 

I think we could have gotten a Quintana/Carrasco/Salazar type a year ago for Espinoza, Margot, Allen, Asuaje & Guerra. If I'm wrong, I'd have thrown in another good but not great prospect, if needed.

[moonslav59]

Alex Speier reports we had about $9M to spend and stay under the luxury tax and reset it. That does not include the little money we will spend on Fister and Peralta and any promotions given to farm players. My guess is, we might have $4-6M left to spend.

[S5Dewey]

I think we could have gotten a Quintana/Carrasco/Salazar type a year ago for Espinoza, Margot, Allen, Asuaje & Guerra. If I'm wrong, I'd have thrown in another good but not great prospect, if needed.

 

And if we'd done that we'd be agonizing over the fact that we don't have a closer who can get the job done.

 

We've now got arguably one of the top two closers and one of the top two SP's in the game. Yeah, we've still got some issues, both in pitching and otherwise, but this is a good start on a WS Championship team. Are we really going to quibble about what we might have been able to do?

[moonslav59]

I think we could have gotten a Quintana/Carrasco/Salazar type a year ago for Espinoza, Margot, Allen, Asuaje & Guerra. If I'm wrong, I'd have thrown in another good but not great prospect, if needed.

 

And if we'd done that we'd be agonizing over the fact that we don't have a closer who can get the job done.

 

We've now got arguably one of the top two closers and one of the top two SP's in the game. Yeah, we've still got some issues, both in pitching and otherwise, but this is a good start on a WS Championship team. Are we really going to quibble about what we might have been able to do?

 

No, the idea was to wait a year and sign a big FA closer. The cost would have been higher than Kimbrel, but the low cost of Quinatna/Carrasco/Salazar would offset the $3-5M difference in closer salary from Kimbrel to someone like Chapman.

[Bellhorn04]

fangraphs had him at $9.8M last year- meaning he didn't even earn his paycheck.

 

If Kimbrel keeps pitching like a $30M closer the rest of his contract, even if we don't win a ring, the deal will look like a good one.

 

FYI: Clippard made just $4.1 M last year and his value was $4.8M. KRod made $5.5M in 2016 and was valued at $4.8M. Both were not as good as Kimbrel last year,

and I never thought they would be, but together, they would have been decent enough.

 

Sure. Kimbrel had a bad season for him last year. This year he's having a crazy good season.

 

KRod and Clippard were both pretty good last year. This year, KRod just got released and Clippard has been struggling.

 

So much of this stuff is almost impossible to predict. As fans and armchair GM's we can sit back and analyze all the different scenarios as time goes on. When you're the actual GM you have to make the decision and live with it.

[moonslav59]

Sure. Kimbrel had a bad season for him last year. This year he's having a crazy good season.

 

KRod and Clippard were both pretty good last year. This year, KRod just got released and Clippard has been struggling.

 

So much of this stuff is almost impossible to predict. As fans and armchair GM's we can sit back and analyze all the different scenarios as time goes on. When you're the actual GM you have to make the decision and live with it.

 

I think KRod's contract expired after last year.

 

I get the GM having to live with it, and certainly Kimbrel's recent production is making DD breathe easier, but I still think we gave up way to much for a RP'er, when you factor in the contract cost with the overpay in prospects.

 

What made the Sale trade great was that Sale is getting paid dirt compared to his true value. I'm fine overpaying (or paying comparable FA costs) in money or prospects but not both. The starter vs RP'er factor tips the balance even more.

[Nick]

I think KRod's contract expired after last year.

 

I get the GM having to live with it, and certainly Kimbrel's recent production is making DD breathe easier, but I still think we gave up way to much for a RP'er, when you factor in the contract cost with the overpay in prospects.

 

What made the Sale trade great was that Sale is getting paid dirt compared to his true value. I'm fine overpaying (or paying comparable FA costs) in money or prospects but not both. The starter vs RP'er factor tips the balance even more.

 

I think Kimbrel decision should be a closed topic by now. What if fictional Sox closer had blown few saves this year? Fans would be screaming. We don't win the Division without Kimbrel this year.

 

Loved the Sale trade, would do it every time. What's incredible is that we did in a roundabout way 'saved' some of $60M we spent to sign Moncada by getting a discount (read lower Sale's SALARY). I'm sure Henry is pleased.

[Bellhorn04]

I think KRod's contract expired after last year.

 

I get the GM having to live with it, and certainly Kimbrel's recent production is making DD breathe easier, but I still think we gave up way to much for a RP'er, when you factor in the contract cost with the overpay in prospects.

 

What made the Sale trade great was that Sale is getting paid dirt compared to his true value. I'm fine overpaying (or paying comparable FA costs) in money or prospects but not both. The starter vs RP'er factor tips the balance even more.

 

But again, Kimbrel's contract looks like a bargain now compared to Chapman's, and that does have to be factored in.