A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[moonslav59]

Betts didn't leave much room for improvement. What did you expect 35 HRs and 130 RBI and 30 SB each year?

 

I can't say I expected every Sox player to improve, but it wouldn't have surprised me to see Betts improve slightly on 2016....maybe .325 33 120.

 

It's still not too late to see him out hit 2016. Betts had an .800 OPS on May 30th last year.

 

I will say, I expected the aggregate total from Betts, Bogey & JBJ to improve.

 

I expected Beni and a full season from Young to improve on our LF numbers from 2016.

 

I expected our catchers to hit about the same, as we lost Hanigan and Holaday's horrific numbers, and I expected Vaz to improve.

 

I figured the combination of HRam & Pedey could come close to staying the same, but even if they declined some, I figured Pablo/Hernandez/Rutledge would outhit last year's 3B numbers enough to even the vets out.

 

I did not expect Moreland to come close to Papi's output, but I felt a Moreland-Young platoon would give us an OPS of at least .800. (Now that HRam is the permanent DH, Young is squeezed. He's been one of MLB's best hitters vs LHPs over the last 2-3 years combined.

 

I still like this line-up, and I think they will end up doing well this year, but I think I may have underestimated just how good some other teams' offenses are.

 

I live outside of Houston, and the Astros look frightening!

[moonslav59]

The Sox were tied for second in runs scored during the month of May, behind only the red hot Astros. If the team can stay healthy, I don't see any reason why they can't continue being one of the top run scoring teams.

 

This is the time of the year that Betts usually ignites.

[Bellhorn04]

I still like this line-up, and I think they will end up doing well this year, but I think I may have underestimated just how good some other teams' offenses are.

 

Run scoring and home runs have increased the last couple of years.

 

The ball is juiced, guaranteed.

[Kimmi]

I can't say I expected every Sox player to improve, but it wouldn't have surprised me to see Betts improve slightly on 2016....maybe .325 33 120.

 

It's still not too late to see him out hit 2016. Betts had an .800 OPS on May 30th last year.

 

I will say, I expected the aggregate total from Betts, Bogey & JBJ to improve.

 

I expected Beni and a full season from Young to improve on our LF numbers from 2016.

 

I expected our catchers to hit about the same, as we lost Hanigan and Holaday's horrific numbers, and I expected Vaz to improve.

 

I figured the combination of HRam & Pedey could come close to staying the same, but even if they declined some, I figured Pablo/Hernandez/Rutledge would outhit last year's 3B numbers enough to even the vets out.

 

I did not expect Moreland to come close to Papi's output, but I felt a Moreland-Young platoon would give us an OPS of at least .800. (Now that HRam is the permanent DH, Young is squeezed. He's been one of MLB's best hitters vs LHPs over the last 2-3 years combined.

 

I still like this line-up, and I think they will end up doing well this year, but I think I may have underestimated just how good some other teams' offenses are.

 

I live outside of Houston, and the Astros look frightening!

 

I posted at the end of April that while the poor start might keep us from leading the league in runs scored for the year, I wouldn't be surprised if we led the league in runs scored from that point on. I still believe that we could.

 

My apologies to you if you posted this already (I'm sure you've posted something similar), but here is the drop off in OPS by player or position, courtesy of the great JoeB:

 

Leon -174

Hanley -117

Pedey -76

Bogie +43

3B -176

LF -119

JBJ -72

Betts -88

 

As he points out, it's almost every player. You would expect drop off from some, but you would expect improvement in more than just Bogaerts. Personally, I think our offense will hit its stride and will be fine.

[moonslav59]

I posted at the end of April that while the poor start might keep us from leading the league in runs scored for the year, I wouldn't be surprised if we led the league in runs scored from that point on. I still believe that we could.

 

My apologies to you if you posted this already (I'm sure you've posted something similar), but here is the drop off in OPS by player or position, courtesy of the great JoeB:

 

Leon -174

Hanley -117

Pedey -76

Bogie +43

3B -176

LF -119

JBJ -72

Betts -88

 

As he points out, it's almost every player. You would expect drop off from some, but you would expect improvement in more than just Bogaerts. Personally, I think our offense will hit its stride and will be fine.

 

Yeah, I posted something similar. Only Bogey and Vaz have improved over last year.

 

It kind of reminds me of the arguments that ook place after 2013, when just about everyone had "up years".

 

It's not a common thing for just about everyone to have an up or down season all at the same time. I'm betting we won't see it this year.

 

Here's what I came up with a couple days ago...

 

Only Bogey and Vaz are having better OPS seasons than last year. I don't expect that to continue.

 

2016>2017

.845>.670 SLeon -.175

.835>.712 Beni -.123

.850>.734 Young -.116

.866>.749 HRam -.115

.897> .809 Betts -.098

.825>.749 Pedey -.076

.835>.763 J.B.Jr -.072

 

(Note: Papi 1.021 > Moreland .828 is -.193)

 

Do we really expect all these guys to continue having big drop-off years all at the same time?

 

The plusses:

.585>.845 Vaz +.340

.802>.845 Bogey +.043

 

(Note: Shaw .726 to Pablo .718 is just -.008)

 

[moonslav59]

Run scoring and home runs have increased the last couple of years.

 

The ball is juiced, guaranteed.

 

Then, they switch to the "old balls" when the Sox are up to bat.

[SCM33]

This is the time of the year that Betts usually ignites.

 

Based on what? Hes only had one season that hes ever been "ignited".

 

The year he is having now, is more in line with his career average when you take out last season.

[moonslav59]

Nice win today.

 

Good to see Beni come to life.

[Nick]

Nice win today.

 

Good to see Beni come to life.

 

After all said and done, we are only 2 games behind the Yankees.

 

It's frustrating from standpoint of all the injuries we've had,

 

I will do a backflip when our rotation goes through 3 or 4 times without anyone missing a start.

 

Gettin back Carson Smith will be huge.

[Jasonbay44]

Based on what? Hes only had one season that hes ever been "ignited".

 

The year he is having now, is more in line with his career average when you take out last season.

 

Based on the fact that in his first two full seasons, he struggled in April and May before turning it up around June?

[moonslav59]

Based on what? Hes only had one season that hes ever been "ignited".

 

The year he is having now, is more in line with his career average when you take out last season.

 

Look again. TWO SEASONS.

 

2015:

June 10th OPS .658

Oct 4th OPS .820

 

2016:

May 9th: .693

May 18th: .726

May 28th: .781

Oct 2nd: .897

 

(Even his short 2014 season started out slow. He was at .624 on AUG 22 but ended up at .812.)

 

Look, I have no way of knowing if Betts will "ignite" again this year, but he's still young, and many young players continue to improve as they near their prime years. Of course, they don't always follow a neat and tidy bell curve, but there is reason to expect Betts to do better going forward this year.

 

Career:

 

1st half: .822

2nd half: .887

 

Best months to worst months over his short career:

 

.959 August

.874 September

.865 July

.839 May

.824 June

.740 April

 

Pretty close to a clear progression from month to month. (Flip May & June and SEP & AUG.)

 

Edited June 5, 2017 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

No "Realistic View of 2017" can ignore the simple fact, as stated above by Nick, that the Sox right now, June 5, are just 2 games back of the Yankees and 1.5 games ahead of the Orioles and all others contending for an AL wild card slot.

 

I say this almost with chagrin because I have been one of the chief whiners about this team and especially the hitting. Granted, we still have 2/3 of the season still to play, but nevertheless it is hard right now not to be just a little hopeful. So my hat's off to both Kimmi and Moonslav who have consistently said things ain't that bad, which clearly they are not.

 

Funny thing is, I know I wrote way back in April and maybe March that I thought the loss of Ortiz would not be insurmountable. Right now, as Kimmi's numbers show, it still looks pretty bad, with to me the biggest disappointment being HanRam. I think most of the others--Betts, JBJ, Beni, Pedey, Moreland, C (leon and vazquez)--should be fine. 3B is likely to continue to be a problem, but heck, someone has to bat 9th.

 

What partially redeems the hitting is that the pitching suddenly looks pretty darn good.

[moonslav59]

No "Realistic View of 2017" can ignore the simple fact, as stated above by Nick, that the Sox right now, June 5, are just 2 games back of the Yankees and 1.5 games ahead of the Orioles and all others contending for an AL wild card slot.

 

I say this almost with chagrin because I have been one of the chief whiners about this team and especially the hitting. Granted, we still have 2/3 of the season still to play, but nevertheless it is hard right now not to be just a little hopeful. So my hat's off to both Kimmi and Moonslav who have consistently said things ain't that bad, which clearly they are not.

 

Funny thing is, I know I wrote way back in April and maybe March that I thought the loss of Ortiz would not be insurmountable. Right now, as Kimmi's numbers show, it still looks pretty bad, with to me the biggest disappointment being HanRam. I think most of the others--Betts, JBJ, Beni, Pedey, Moreland, C (leon and vazquez)--should be fine. 3B is likely to continue to be a problem, but heck, someone has to bat 9th.

 

What partially redeems the hitting is that the pitching suddenly looks pretty darn good.

 

Maybe part of HRam's issue is the loss of Papi's "protection". Maybe another part is his injury. Maybe his up and down career is just at a down point.

 

I think we'll need HRam to be strong by playoff time to have a much better shot at winning it all.

 

Every championship team needs things to go right at the same time and THE RIGHT TIME!

 

With a starting rotation headed by Chris Freakin' Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and possibly ERod, I like how we might look going into any series against any team in MLB, assuming they are all healthy.

[Slasher9]

Pss it gets cold in September, and OCTOBER.

 

exactly why pitching = parades.

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe part of HRam's issue is the loss of Papi's "protection". Maybe another part is his injury. Maybe his up and down career is just at a down point.

 

I think we'll need HRam to be strong by playoff time to have a much better shot at winning it all.

 

Every championship team needs things to go right at the same time and THE RIGHT TIME!

 

With a starting rotation headed by Chris Freakin' Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and possibly ERod, I like how we might look going into any series against any team in MLB, assuming they are all healthy.

 

Can't argue with any of that.

[moonslav59]

Some current team numbers...

 

Pitching according to fangraphs:

16.3 LAD

14.9 BOS

14.7 CLE

13.1 NYY

13.0 CUBS

12.9 WSH

12.5 HOU

 

Batting

17.6 CUBS

17.0 HOU

16.8 LAD

16.1 CLE

15.3 WSH

14.9 TOR

14.7 BOS

14.3 NYY

 

Runs scored

314 WSH

312 HOU

300 COL

294 NYY

284 MIL

283 LAD

283 AZ

277 DET

276 CIN

272 TBR

271 BOS at #11 (just 7 runs from being top 8 and 14 runs from top 5.

 

4th in OBP at .340 (just .001 from the Yanks)

19th in SLG but on the rise

11th in OPS at .751

 

6th in Earned Runs allowed at 208 (227 runs allowed is also 6th.)

 

5th in ERA- at 87

 

6th in WHIP at 1.23

 

1st in K/BB at 3.96

 

Best closer in MLB according to WAR (Kimbrel +1.7 with 2nd place at 1.4)

 

Best starter in MLB according to WAR (Sale at 3.6 with 2nd place at just 2.4)

 

4th in defense according to fangraphs

5th in UZR/150

10th in DRS

 

15th in Base Running

 

With all the injuries and "off years", we don't look too bad at the 1/3rd mark.

 

 

[Nick]

Then, they switch to the "old balls" when the Sox are up to bat.

 

 

We'd be 1st in slugging if we played in 5' 8" and under league.

[Kimmi]

Maybe part of HRam's issue is the loss of Papi's "protection". Maybe another part is his injury. Maybe his up and down career is just at a down point.

 

I think we'll need HRam to be strong by playoff time to have a much better shot at winning it all.

 

Every championship team needs things to go right at the same time and THE RIGHT TIME!

 

With a starting rotation headed by Chris Freakin' Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and possibly ERod, I like how we might look going into any series against any team in MLB, assuming they are all healthy.

 

As I've posted before, the idea of 'protection' in a line up is mostly false.

 

That said, I think that maybe Hanley is trying to do too much now that Papi is not in the line up. Hanley probably thinks that he has to be "the man" in the line up now. To me, it seems like he's swinging for the fences in every at bat, which maybe isn't anything new for him. But I do think that maybe he's trying to be the new Papi and trying to carry the burden of unrealistic expectations that he has placed on himself.

[moonslav59]

Steve Adams reports...

 

The Brewers will acquire minor league shortstop Yeison Coca from the Red Sox as the player to be named later in the offseason Tyler Thornburg/Travis Shaw trade, according to Evan Drellich of CSN New England (Twitter link).

 

Coca, 18, signed with the Red Sox back on July 2 in 2015 as a 16-year-old and has just one full season of pro ball under his belt. He spent the 2016 campaign with Boston’s affiliate in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .307/.370/.409 with a homer, five doubles, nine triples and 12 stolen bases (in 17 attempts). Baseball America rated Coca as the Red Sox’ No. 25 prospect this offseason, noting that he shows the instincts and defensive aptitude to eventually be an everyday shortstop with above-average bat-to-ball skills and below-average power.

[moonslav59]

Mark Shreve reports....

 

https://2080baseball.com/2017/06/rafael-devers-bat-is-ready-for-the-big-leagues-but-his-development-at-third-base-will-determine-when-hes-ready-to-make-the-jump/

 

... while Rafael Devers bat is ready for the big leagues, his defensive development will dictate when he moves up. The write-up is detailed and covers all the aspects of Dever's game. Devers is off to a fantastic start to the year, hitting .308/.371/.544 with 10 home runs over his first 202 plate appearances.

[moonslav59]

Chavis hit 2 HRs last night. He's up to 14 HRs in just 178 ABs!!

[cp176]

We'd be 1st in slugging if we played in 5' 8" and under league.

 

lol - our lineup for the most part is smaller than Baltimore's second baseman. my 5 year old tee ball star grandson clearly has a future in New England.

[moonslav59]

lol - our lineup for the most part is smaller than Baltimore's second baseman. my 5 year old tee ball star grandson clearly has a future in New England.

 

It is funny.

 

Baseball Reference has us listed as having no players under 5-9

 

5-9

Pedey, Vaz & Betts

 

5-10

Beni, JBJ, Leon & Holt

 

5-11

Pablo & R Ross

 

6-0

Kimbrel, Travis, Selsky

 

6-1

Bogey, Swihart, Kelly, Abad, Rutledge & Marrero

 

Of course, these numbers are often fudged.

 

 

 

[cp176]

For the most part it looks as though we have a small team. Quite possibly very athletic but still kind of small by today's standards. It might not mean a thing.

[moonslav59]

For the most part it looks as though we have a small team. Quite possibly very athletic but still kind of small by today's standards. It might not mean a thing.

 

We're a much younger team now, too.

 

Boyer is our oldest at 35.

 

Pedey, HRaam and Young are 33.

[a700hitter]

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2017/06/05/234611880/pedro-martinez-tweets-about-a-david-ortiz-red-sox-comeback

 

Pedro says that Big Papi is in baseball shape and that he has been working out.

[cp176]

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2017/06/05/234611880/pedro-martinez-tweets-about-a-david-ortiz-red-sox-comeback

 

Pedro says that Big Papi is in baseball shape and that he has been working out.

 

We need one more real bat in the lineup! if for no other reason than to make our opponents think that we have one legit h/run threat in there.

[moonslav59]

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2017/06/05/234611880/pedro-martinez-tweets-about-a-david-ortiz-red-sox-comeback

 

Pedro says that Big Papi is in baseball shape and that he has been working out.

 

With HRam as a DH only player, I'm not sure how we'd make it work, but I'd certainly let Papi know, he's welcome back anytime!

[Jack Flap]

Quality trolling by Pedro, but...

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/19554826/former-boston-red-sox-slugger-david-ortiz-says-staying-retired

[a700hitter]

With HRam as a DH only player, I'm not sure how we'd make it work, but I'd certainly let Papi know, he's welcome back anytime!

They are being overly cautious with HanRam because they can afford to be. There is no other big DH hitter who would force him back to 1B.