A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[moonslav59]

With opening day just around the corner, and the roster taking shape, it's time for Part II.

 

(Part I reference:

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17991-A-Realistic-View-at-2017-Part-I )

 

Here's my Red Sox positional depth chart (assuming 100% healthy):

 

C: Leon, Vazquez, Swihart (AAA), Butler (AAA)

1B: Moreland (vs RHPs)/ Ramirez (vs LHPs- DH vs RHPs), Travis (AAA), Craig?

2B: Pedroia, Hernandez (AAA), Holt, Rutledge

3B: Sandoval, Hernandez (AAA), Rutledge, Holt

SS: Bogaerts, Hernandez (AAA), Holt, Marrero (AAA)

LF: Benintendi, Young (DH vs LHPs), Slesky (AAA), Moreland, Brentz (Trade/DFA)

CF: Bradley, (Beni from LF), Holt

RF: Betts, Young, Holt, Moreland

 

SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Pomeranz (long relief)

AAA: Kendrick, Johnson, Elias, Owens, Velazquez, Haviland

RP: Kimbrel, Thornburg, Smith, Kelly, Ross, Hembree

AAA: Barnes, Scott, Abad (Traded or DFA'd), Workman, Olmos, Martin, Ysla, N Ramirez

 

Budget: cots has our CB payroll at $179.6M, which leaves us with about $15.3M to spend this summer to fill any needs.

 

My choice of line-ups:

 

vs RHPs:

1) Benintendi LF

2) Pedroia 2B

3) Betts RF

4) Ramirez DH

5) Bradley CF

6) Bogaerts SS

7) Sanddoval 3B

8) Moreland 1B

9) Leon C

 

vs LHPs

1) Bogaerts SS

2) Pedroia 2B

3) Ramirez 1B

4) Betts RF

5) Young DH

6) Benintendi LF

7) Bradley CF

8) Rutledge 3B

9) Leon - Vaz C

 

My projections, again with 100% health

(PA- Player OBP/SLG/OPS):

 

C:

300 Leon .320/.360/.680

200 Vaz .300/.360/.660

150 Swihart .330/.380/.710

 

1B:

500 Moreland .325/.435/.760

200 + 450 DH Ramirez .360/.490/.850

 

2B:

650 Pedroia .365/.415/.790

50 + 50 3B + 50 SS + 50 OF Holt .330/.370/.700

 

3B:

500 Sandoval .340/.435/.775

150 Rutledge .320/.360/.680

50 +50 SS +50 2B Hernandez .330/.390/.720

 

SS:

650 Bogaerts .350/.480/.830

 

LF:

550+ 50 CF Benintendi .365/.465/.830

150 + 250 DH Young .350/.450/.800

 

CF:

600 Bradley .345/.475/.820

 

RF:

700 Betts .400/.550/.950

 

Starters (GS- player- ERA team record in starts)

34 Sale 2.90 24-10

33 Price 3.20 20-13

33 Porcello 3.30 20-13

24 Rodrigues 3.90 14-10

24 Wright 4.00 14-10

14 Pomeranz 4.10 8-6

 

Team: 100-62

 

I welcome your thoughts, projections and ideas.

Edited March 31, 2017 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Well, someone will have to pick up at least a portion of 33 starts for Price (I get it that you said assuming 100% healthy). It would be great if that's Wright/Pomeranz but I'm not counting on it. Kendrick will get a look.

 

I know most of you here want to discount ST stats but I'm encouraged by our offensive output. Pedy, Beni, Betts, Xander, Bradley Jr, Pablo, Hanley and Moreland have all hit during spring. Sandy may be coming around. This will be fun team to watch.

 

I don't see us getting to 100 wins. 96 tops.

[Fisk]

It all depends on the health of the team, even with the current injuries to Price, Pom and Thornburg I still think they are over a 90 win team even if they linger all season (which I don't believe). But further injuries would really kill the depth of the team. Even without Price I would put our top 4 starters against almost any teams top 4.

[S5Dewey]

Man, I LOVE our OF. With a combined OPS of 2.5+ plus their defensive capabilities ..could this be overall the best starting OF in baseball? Think about it - we have legitimate contenders for - left to right - ROY, GG, & MVP. And to top it off, how many teams have a 4th OF as solid as Chris Young?

 

I predict that these guys are going to do things that don't show up in the score book and will be responsible for maybe as many as a dozen wins above WAR (replacement) players.

[mvp 78]

David Price is going to start 33 games? After missing April and most of May (at the very least), he'll come nowhere near 30 games.

[moonslav59]

Well, someone will have to pick up at least a portion of 33 starts for Price (I get it that you said assuming 100% healthy). It would be great if that's Wright/Pomeranz but I'm not counting on it. Kendrick will get a look.

 

I know most of you here want to discount ST stats but I'm encouraged by our offensive output. Pedy, Beni, Betts, Xander, Bradley Jr, Pablo, Hanley and Moreland have all hit during spring. Sandy may be coming around. This will be fun team to watch.

 

I don't see us getting to 100 wins. 96 tops.

 

I was hopeful we could get by with just 6 starters. It's too bad Pom was not ready to take Price's place.

[moonslav59]

David Price is going to start 33 games? After missing April and most of May (at the very least), he'll come nowhere near 30 games.

 

I said "assuming 100% health". Obviously some will have to be pro-rated, and Price may end up with less than 20 starts. Add some to ERod & Wright. Maybe add some to Pom. Start by adding 2-3 to Kendrick.)

[mvp 78]

I said "assuming 100% health". Obviously some will have to be pro-rated, and Price may end up with less than 20 starts. Add some to ERod & Wright. Maybe add some to Pom. Start by adding 2-3 to Kendrick.)

 

Seems pointless then since we know he's not healthy. Why not adjust of you're really going to make a "realistic" view?

[User Name]

Man, I LOVE our OF. With a combined OPS of 2.5+ plus their defensive capabilities ..could this be overall the best starting OF in baseball? Think about it - we have legitimate contenders for - left to right - ROY, GG, & MVP. And to top it off, how many teams have a 4th OF as solid as Chris Young?

 

I predict that these guys are going to do things that don't show up in the score book and will be responsible for maybe as many as a dozen wins above WAR (replacement) players.

 

Mookie and Bradley were worth more than 12 WAR (12.6 fWAR) last season.

[moonslav59]

Seems pointless then since we know he's not healthy. Why not adjust of you're really going to make a "realistic" view?

 

It's my expectations based on a full season. Pro-rating the player after the fact will be easier this way.

 

Projecting injuries is too complicated.

[moonslav59]

Mookie and Bradley were worth more than 12 WAR (12.6 fWAR) last season.

 

I'm hoping Betts gets better, JBJ gets more consistent and Beni nears or exceeds a 3.5 WAR. With Young giving us a plus WAR, we might see an OF WAR of over 17.

[Slasher9]

Moon, please add X-bo / SS to your projections in first post.

 

btw - i agree we will have triple digit wins.

[Bellhorn04]

Anyone who predicts triple digit wins is a bonnethead.

[mvp 78]

Anyone who predicts triple digit wins is a bonnethead.

 

A shark?

[moonslav59]

Moon, please add X-bo / SS to your projections in first post.

 

Done

[Bellhorn04]

A shark?

 

Sorry, kind of an inside joke I guess. On BDC there was a poster who used the word bonnethead to describe a Pollyanna who saw everything with rose-colored glasses.

[mvp 78]

Sorry, kind of an inside joke I guess. On BDC there was a poster who used the word bonnethead to describe a Pollyanna who saw everything with rose-colored glasses.

 

I can only imagine who!

[cp176]

did he mean hammerhead? All the same thing.

[Bellhorn04]

This kind of bonnethead:

 

[moonslav59]

[Kimmi]

Well, someone will have to pick up at least a portion of 33 starts for Price (I get it that you said assuming 100% healthy). It would be great if that's Wright/Pomeranz but I'm not counting on it. Kendrick will get a look.

 

I know most of you here want to discount ST stats but I'm encouraged by our offensive output. Pedy, Beni, Betts, Xander, Bradley Jr, Pablo, Hanley and Moreland have all hit during spring. Sandy may be coming around. This will be fun team to watch.

 

I don't see us getting to 100 wins. 96 tops.

 

I am optimistic about our offense, and it has nothing to do with spring training stats. Our offense was that good last year.

 

That said, even if everyone stays completely healthy, I don't see us getting to 100 wins either. That is just so hard to do. I think 90-95 wins, depending on the health of our players. My prediction is 95.

[Kimmi]

This kind of bonnethead:

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]469[/ATTACH]

 

Yikes. I am 99% sure that somebody posted that picture to me at Sawxheads.

[moonslav59]

I'm just happy the long winter wait is almost over.

 

Let the games begin!

[Kimmi]

I'm just happy the long winter wait is almost over.

 

Let the games begin!

 

No kidding! Woohoo!

[Thunder]

As am I, but my start to the MLB season will begin at 4:10 tomorrow. I'd prefer my first baseball watching experience not be the Yankees and the Rays. Instead, I'll watch one of my favorite pitchers take on the most famous alumnus of my high school.

[moonslav59]

Opening day 25 man roster...

 

Porcello, Sale, ERod, Wright

Kimbrel, Kelly, Ross, Hembree, Barnes, Scott, Abad, Taylor

Leon, Vaz

HanRam, Moreland, Selsky

Pedey, Holt

Sandoval

Bogey

Beni, Young

JBJ

Betts

 

DL:

Price

Pom

Thornburg

Smith

Elias

Rutledge

 

 

[Nick]

When was the last time we did not have to 'buy' a closer? Someone needs to step up. Other teams have guys that stepped in to the closer role.

 

Really looking forward to Carson Smith coming off DL.

[oldtimer]

Opening day 25 man roster...

 

Porcello, Sale, ERod, Wright

Kimbrel, Kelly, Ross, Hembree, Barnes, Scott, Abad, Taylor

Leon, Vaz

HanRam, Moreland, Selsky

Pedey, Holt

Sandoval

Bogey

Beni, Young

JBJ

Betts

 

DL:

Price

Pom

Thornburg

Smith

Elias

Rutledge

 

 

 

Strange on opening day to have 5 pitchers on the disabled list. Four of those are meaningful to the team and only Smith was expected to be. Hope the Sox can find a way to keep their staff off the disabled list going forward.

[Fisk]

When was the last time we did not have to 'buy' a closer? Someone needs to step up. Other teams have guys that stepped in to the closer role.

 

Really looking forward to Carson Smith coming off DL.

I agree, you see other teams have relievers come out of nowhere and we struggle to develop them.

[Bellhorn04]

When was the last time we did not have to 'buy' a closer?

 

Papelbon.

 

Not many homegrown closers in the Sox illustrious history, that's for sure...