On second thought...

[cp176]

Bill James: Josh Donaldson is 30, turns 31 in December. Not young. I know you will think this is crazy, but I am not sure I would trade the Red Sox' Marco Hernandez for any of those guys. I have been waiting since the opening day of spring training for Marco Hernandez to do something I wasn't impressed with, and I'm still waiting. He is way faster than any of those guys. May not have the arm to play third every day; I haven't seen enough of him at third to be sure. But everything else is good."

 

Someone must have slipped something into his coffee.

 

I knew there was a reason why I loved that Bill James guy!!!

[S5Dewey]

Totally off topic, but is anyone else having trouble accessing the forums (only) from their phone? I've found a back door to get here but I can only access the five threads with the most recent posts. HELP!

[Maxbialystock]

It's nice to see all the love pouring out for Marco. I've always been very high on this kid. I had hoped his SS defense would improve more than it has, since 2B is locked up longer than SS and 3B.

 

Based on what I've seen this spring, I just hope he makes the 25 man roster and completely agree with you that it would make sense to trade Holt.

[moonslav59]

Based on what I've seen this spring, I just hope he makes the 25 man roster and completely agree with you that it would make sense to trade Holt.

 

Finally, someone agrees with me on Holt.

 

It's not that I don't value him; I do. I just think his value to another team is higher, and that is the basis for making a good trade.

[TylerD]

Why not just insert Hernandez at third? Bogaerts has worked hard at his shortstop defense and made immense improvements and was flat out uncomfortable at third. Why penalize him (and the team) for his hard work?

 

This! However saying that I do think the older Xander gets and he develops more skill for the game he wold be fine in almost any position he played.

[cp176]

This! However saying that I do think the older Xander gets and he develops more skill for the game he wold be fine in almost any position he played.

 

I'm not opposed to leaving XB at short for sure but I still don't want to see hernandez at third. He is a second baseman/shortstop. Not much room for him right now I guess but that is the way it goes. I do find it amusing when I read past comments by some suggesting that XB is just an average at best ss. I don't believe this at all. He has improved in all areas of the game. I like him right where he is but if he isn't that good at short moving him right over to third should seem logical. Although I think that Marco deserves to be on this team, in no way would I think that moving XB to third makes any sense. He has worked too hard.

[oldtimer]

I'm not opposed to leaving XB at short for sure but I still don't want to see hernandez at third. He is a second baseman/shortstop. Not much room for him right now I guess but that is the way it goes. I do find it amusing when I read past comments by some suggesting that XB is just an average at best ss. I don't believe this at all. He has improved in all areas of the game. I like him right where he is but if he isn't that good at short moving him right over to third should seem logical. Although I think that Marco deserves to be on this team, in no way would I think that moving XB to third makes any sense. He has worked too hard.

 

 

I'd keep Bogey at SS also. But the idea of having a very weak hitting right handed third base backup last year didn't go well and perhaps Rutledge would do better, but you have a terrific left hand hitter in Marco and he could fill in as utility for Short, second and third. Keep this kid and trade the players that have more value to others than to us.

[cp176]

I'd keep Bogey at SS also. But the idea of having a very weak hitting right handed third base backup last year didn't go well and perhaps Rutledge would do better, but you have a terrific left hand hitter in Marco and he could fill in as utility for Short, second and third. Keep this kid and trade the players that have more value to others than to us.

 

makes sense to me

[Nick]

Bogey at SS with potential for additional power is what gives him higher ceiling at SS.

 

Wouldn't his bat become less valuable as a 3B? Similar to Swihart being a catcher versus a left fielder.

[moonslav59]

Bogey at SS with potential for additional power is what gives him higher ceiling at SS.

 

Wouldn't his bat become less valuable as a 3B? Similar to Swihart being a catcher versus a left fielder.

 

True, but if his SS defense is not a plus, and his 3B defense could eventually be a plus, it might tip the balance.

 

I used to be a strong advocate for moving Bogey to 3B, but that was when we had better defensive options at SS, and scouts were talking about Bogey's likelihood of not sticking at SS. Bogey improved on his defense enough for me to drop my crusade, but I think he took a baby step backwards last year, so I'm still open to the idea, but first we need to have a clearly better defensive SS.

 

BTW, league SSs had an OPS only about 50 points worse than the average league 3Bmen. It's not like the old days anymore.

[User Name]

But the SS class is top-heavy.

[cp176]

Bogey at SS with potential for additional power is what gives him higher ceiling at SS.

 

Wouldn't his bat become less valuable as a 3B? Similar to Swihart being a catcher versus a left fielder.

 

I'm not sure about this. Depends on what you really want and traditionally expect form a third baseman. I hope that his bat keeps up with some of the explosive bats we are now seeing at ss. I think that Benintendi should be fine for us in left but I'm not expecting Jim Rice power out there either. With respect to XB, my "eyes" tell me that he is a very good ss. Of course there are better but he more than gets the job done. I would not move XB. XB's first year in the field was shaky. He spent that next winter working his tail off with Pedroia in Arizona. He got quicker, stronger, and better overall. He is damn good at what he does.

[moonslav59]

But the SS class is top-heavy.

 

True enough, but it seems like the younger generation of good hitting SSs is growing. More of the better hitting 3Bmen are getting older (Beltre, Donaldson, Turner...). Except for Asrubal Cabrera, the top 9 SSs in OPS are under 28.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure about this. Depends on what you really want and traditionally expect form a third baseman. I hope that his bat keeps up with some of the explosive bats we are now seeing at ss. I think that Benintendi should be fine for us in left but I'm not expecting Jim Rice power out there either. With respect to XB, my "eyes" tell me that he is a very good ss. Of course there are better but he more than gets the job done. I would not move XB. XB's first year in the field was shaky. He spent that next winter working his tail off with Pedroia in Arizona. He got quicker, stronger, and better overall. He is damn good at what he does.

 

I saw a lot of defensive improvement from 2014 to 2015, and his UZR/150 went from -3.7 to +0.9. I was very happy that it appeared he was going to become a plus defender over the long run.

 

However, last year he looked ho-hum. He wasn't bad, but it seemed to me, he looked like he took a baby step backwards. His UZR/150 went down to -2.8.

 

He Defensive Runs Saved went from -9 to -1 to -10 over the last 3 seasons.

 

Inside Edge shows that although he made more "unlikely plays" than ever before (29%), his "likely plays" made went from 89% to 64% over the last 2 years.

 

There's still plenty of time to turn it back around and get better on defense, but I doubt he ever gets to top 6 or 7. With his bat, top 15 would be good enough.

 

The whole moving Bogey argument is moot right now, because we have no clearly better defensive SS other than Marrero, and he does not belong on the 25 man roster, let alone starting everyday. If we acquired a decent hitting and great fielding SS, then let's talk. Marco is not a plus defender at SS and neither is Holt.

[cp176]

I saw a lot of defensive improvement from 2014 to 2015, and his UZR/150 went from -3.7 to +0.9. I was very happy that it appeared he was going to become a plus defender over the long run.

 

However, last year he looked ho-hum. He wasn't bad, but it seemed to me, he looked like he took a baby step backwards. His UZR/150 went down to -2.8.

 

He Defensive Runs Saved went from -9 to -1 to -10 over the last 3 seasons.

 

Inside Edge shows that although he made more "unlikely plays" than ever before (29%), his "likely plays" made went from 89% to 64% over the last 2 years.

 

There's still plenty of time to turn it back around and get better on defense, but I doubt he ever gets to top 6 or 7. With his bat, top 15 would be good enough.

 

The whole moving Bogey argument is moot right now, because we have no clearly better defensive SS other than Marrero, and he does not belong on the 25 man roster, let alone starting everyday. If we acquired a decent hitting and great fielding SS, then let's talk. Marco is not a plus defender at SS and neither is Holt.

 

I don't think that there is any question about who is going to be playing short or third or second for us at least starting off this season. I'm not a stat hound. I guess I truly do rely for the most part on what I see particularly from a fielding standpoint. You can tell me I'm wrong and perhaps use stats to prove it but I'm likely to hold my ground. XB is more than adequate at short as would be Hernandez if given the chance. I realize that you watch every play that every player makes and clearly spend the rest of your time studying the stats. Oh well - I'm happy with what we have and when Pedroia gets hurt and hernandez steps in, I will be ok with that as well.

[moonslav59]

I don't think that there is any question about who is going to be playing short or third or second for us at least starting off this season. I'm not a stat hound. I guess I truly do rely for the most part on what I see particularly from a fielding standpoint. You can tell me I'm wrong and perhaps use stats to prove it but I'm likely to hold my ground. XB is more than adequate at short as would be Hernandez if given the chance. I realize that you watch every play that every player makes and clearly spend the rest of your time studying the stats. Oh well - I'm happy with what we have and when Pedroia gets hurt and hernandez steps in, I will be ok with that as well.

 

I am not even coming close to suggesting moving Bogey to 3B to start the season or for any time in the near future, unless we acquire a whiz gloved SS (not likely).

 

I was just responding to the comment about him being a "very good" SS (I assume you meant defensively).

[cp176]

I am not even coming close to suggesting moving Bogey to 3B to start the season or for any time in the near future, unless we acquire a whiz gloved SS (not likely).

 

I was just responding to the comment about him being a "very good" SS (I assume you meant defensively).

 

did I say that you were suggesting he be moved to third? Don't think I did. I disagree with your take on what constitutes a very good ss. In my mind, he is one. One of the best -no. Very good- oh yah

[Nick]

I think fangraph had him rated #8. I'd say you have to be a top 3 (10%) to be very good. He's good, and not, very good.

[moonslav59]

did I say that you were suggesting he be moved to third? Don't think I did. I disagree with your take on what constitutes a very good ss. In my mind, he is one. One of the best -no. Very good- oh yah

 

I meant defensively. I would not call him "very good" on defense at SS. He was maybe average in 2015 but slipped a little last year on defense.

 

Overall, He's clearly a big plus.

 

(I was a big advocate of moving Bogey to 3B when we had Iggy and Marrero had higher hopes. Now, I see no reason to move him to 3B with the roster we currently have.)

[moonslav59]

2016: 29 SS had 750+ innings at SS

2015: 28 SS had 700+ innings at SS

 

UZR/150 at SS

2016: Bogey placed at -2.8

2015: Bogey placed 14th at +0.9

 

Defensive Runs Saved at SS

2016: Bogey finsihed 27th out of 29 at -10 DRS

2015: Bogey finished 14th out of 28 at -1.

 

2015 + 2016 (32 SSs with 1000+ innings at SS):

17th in UZR/150 at -1.9

29th in DRS at -11

 

These numbers don't tell everything, and Bogey can still get better, but I think the numbers support the argument that he is, at best, average or slightly belwo average on defense at SS.

 

He's third in SS WAR since 2015, so I have no beef with Bogey remaining our SS, at least until we acquire a better defensive SS who can hit better than Pablo, Holt and Hernandez at 3B.

 

 

[cp176]

2016: 29 SS had 750+ innings at SS

2015: 28 SS had 700+ innings at SS

 

UZR/150 at SS

2016: Bogey placed at -2.8

2015: Bogey placed 14th at +0.9

 

Defensive Runs Saved at SS

2016: Bogey finsihed 27th out of 29 at -10 DRS

2015: Bogey finished 14th out of 28 at -1.

 

2015 + 2016 (32 SSs with 1000+ innings at SS):

17th in UZR/150 at -1.9

29th in DRS at -11

 

These numbers don't tell everything, and Bogey can still get better, but I think the numbers support the argument that he is, at best, average or slightly belwo average on defense at SS.

 

He's third in SS WAR since 2015, so I have no beef with Bogey remaining our SS, at least until we acquire a better defensive SS who can hit better than Pablo, Holt and Hernandez at 3B.

 

 

 

paralysis by analysis - I like how he looks out there.

[dustcover]

I meant defensively. I would not call him "very good" on defense at SS. He was maybe average in 2015 but slipped a little last year on defense.

 

Overall, He's clearly a big plus.

 

(I was a big advocate of moving Bogey to 3B when we had Iggy and Marrero had higher hopes. Now, I see no reason to move him to 3B with the roster we currently have.)

 

Question for you moon, hypothetically, although I'm hopeful that Sandoval plays well, but if he doesn't and goes so far in the tank that a mandate is reached to shore up 3B, would you rather see Holt, Rutledge, Marrero take over the position OR Bogaerts at 3B and Marco Hernandez at SS?

[Hugh2]

I think the Sox go to Rutledge, or Holt in the near term but if they need a 3b for an extended period of time then I could see them going outside the organization and bring a guy in.

 

They obviously wouldn't break the bank for some because Devers is getting closer but I have a hard time seeing any other option long term in 2017 if Pablo isn't the answer.

[Fisk]

I think the Sox go to Rutledge, or Holt in the near term but if they need a 3b for an extended period of time then I could see them going outside the organization and bring a guy in.

 

They obviously wouldn't break the bank for some because Devers is getting closer but I have a hard time seeing any other option long term in 2017 if Pablo isn't the answer.

 

Think they would go to Hernandez.

[oldtimer]

Think they would go to Hernandez.

 

Looking at the official Red Sox Web site for Depth Chart, not including pitching, it comes out as the following:

 

LF Beni/Young/Brentz

CF JBJ/Young/Beni/Holt

RF Betts/Young/Holt/Brentz

3rd Panda/Holt/Rutledge/Hernandez

SS Bogie/Holt/Rutledge

2nd Pedroia/Holt/Hernandez

1st Moreland/Rameriz

DH Rameriz/Young/Sandoval

C Leon/Vazquez/Swihart

 

Of those, I expect Brentz to be replaced by Selsky sooner than later. If he is, do we remove Holt from outfield depth?

I expect Travis may add to the depth at 1st base during the season.

is Holt a superior option at 2nd than Hernandez? I think not.

The depth at SS and 3rd include Holt and Rutledge with Hernandez also listed at 3rd. Does that make sense?As the season develops should we consider Holt as trade bait?

At catcher, where we start the year is unlikely where we finish. All depends on the hitting of Leon and Varquez and the defensive development of Swihart.

 

We know our 9 starters, the question remains as to who the 4 reserve players will be as the season develops. Clearly Young and Vazquez are likely to remain so we have two slots or 3 depending on the catching situation.

 

Holt/Rutledge?

Hernandez/Rutledge?

Hernandez/Selsky?

 

Don't expect Travis unless of injury at 1st and Swihart will depend on how Leon and Vazquez perform or if they get injured.

[moonslav59]

Looking at the official Red Sox Web site for Depth Chart, not including pitching, it comes out as the following:

 

LF Beni/Young/Brentz

CF JBJ/Young/Beni/Holt

RF Betts/Young/Holt/Brentz

3rd Panda/Holt/Rutledge/Hernandez

SS Bogie/Holt/Rutledge

2nd Pedroia/Holt/Hernandez

1st Moreland/Rameriz

DH Rameriz/Young/Sandoval

C Leon/Vazquez/Swihart

 

Of those, I expect Brentz to be replaced by Selsky sooner than later. If he is, do we remove Holt from outfield depth?

I expect Travis may add to the depth at 1st base during the season.

is Holt a superior option at 2nd than Hernandez? I think not.

The depth at SS and 3rd include Holt and Rutledge with Hernandez also listed at 3rd. Does that make sense?As the season develops should we consider Holt as trade bait?

At catcher, where we start the year is unlikely where we finish. All depends on the hitting of Leon and Varquez and the defensive development of Swihart.

 

We know our 9 starters, the question remains as to who the 4 reserve players will be as the season develops. Clearly Young and Vazquez are likely to remain so we have two slots or 3 depending on the catching situation.

 

Holt/Rutledge?

Hernandez/Rutledge?

Hernandez/Selsky?

 

Don't expect Travis unless of injury at 1st and Swihart will depend on how Leon and Vazquez perform or if they get injured.

 

Brentz is out of options and will be gone or on the DL (phantom or real) by opening day.

 

I don't see Holt as a long term first back-up at any position, except maybe 2B. With Hernandez likely starting in AAA, Holt would be the shorter term first "solution" at SS, but I think Rutledge will see more action at 3B than Holt.

 

I also do not see Young playing CF over Beni. If JBJ sits, Beni moves to CF and Young plays RF.

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox go to Rutledge, or Holt in the near term but if they need a 3b for an extended period of time then I could see them going outside the organization and bring a guy in.

 

If Hernandez keeps hitting well in AAA, I think they'd call him up for a shot before trading for a 3B rental.

 

They obviously wouldn't break the bank for some because Devers is getting closer but I have a hard time seeing any other option long term in 2017 if Pablo isn't the answer.

 

Todd Frazier has been mentioned as a possible mid season rental for 3B.

[moonslav59]

Question for you moon, hypothetically, although I'm hopeful that Sandoval plays well, but if he doesn't and goes so far in the tank that a mandate is reached to shore up 3B, would you rather see Holt, Rutledge, Marrero take over the position OR Bogaerts at 3B and Marco Hernandez at SS?

 

I don't think it's close. Marco is not a plus defensive SS, and to me, to move Bogey to 3B would only happen if we had a plus-plus defensive SS.

 

If Pablo fizzles out, I think we first try a Pablo-Rutledge or Pablo-Holt platoon at 3B, then if he still struggles, we'll go with maybe a Hernandez-Rutledge platoon with Holt getting time at 3B as well. I'm not sure how long we go with this. We may need to make a trade, if this plan fails.

 

I do not see Marrero ever being part of any long term solution.

[moonslav59]

paralysis by analysis - I like how he looks out there.

 

My opinions are not based solely on these numbers. I watch every pitch of every Sox game, and I play extra close attention to SS defense. I saw a clear decline in Bogey's defense from 2015 to 2016. He was not bad, but he was not good either. He was far from "very good", in my opinion in 2016.

 

IMO, Bogey's defense ranges from fair to decent at best. If someone said he as just "good", I'd be okay with that. "Very good" should mean at least top 6 or 8.

 

Maybe we just view these terms differently, and we are just arguing semantics. I tend to use comparative analysis when using superlatives. Bogey's certainly a much better fielder than almost everyone on the planet, but when compared to the top 30 MLB SSs, he's probably ranked about 13th to 20th on SS defense from what I've observed combined with the data I value. If someone wants to call him 10th to 12th, I would ask them if the truly think he's better than which of these guys:

 

2014-2016 UZR/150

20.2 Lindor

19.8 Simmons

15.6 Russell

13.5 Hardy

12.7 Cozart

11.7 Crawford

(To me, there's no way anyone can say he is top 6)

 

7.9 Seager

7.9 Iggy

6.3 Galvis

5.4 Hechavarria

5.0 Tulo

(I cant's see a reasonable argument to say Bogey is to 10 or 11.)

 

From here down, it's a close call:

2.8 A Escobar

1.7 Peralta

0.5 Gregorius (surprising low number here)

0.1 Lowrie (surprisingly better than I'd have imagined)

0.0 W Flores

-0.1 D Espinosa

-0.8 E Escobar

-1.3 A Amarista

-1.4 Castro

-1.6 Bogey

 

 

 

 

[Emp9]

Brentz is out of options and will be gone or on the DL (phantom or real) by opening day.

 

I don't see Holt as a long term first back-up at any position, except maybe 2B. With Hernandez likely starting in AAA, Holt would be the shorter term first "solution" at SS, but I think Rutledge will see more action at 3B than Holt.

 

I also do not see Young playing CF over Beni. If JBJ sits, Beni moves to CF and Young plays RF.

 

Does anyone think Betts would be a CF option in that scenario?