2017 Rotation

[Spudboy]

Yeah and there is more than one way to build a rotation.

 

That was a great concept!

[sk7326]

I like WAR, even with the problems it has, but there are always cases that come up that just make me shake my head.

 

I get that IP matters a lot, but look at the first half WARs of Price (2.6) and Wright (2.1).

 

Should ten extra innings make that much of a difference?

 

Price 124

Wright 114

 

ERA-

Wright 61 (3rd in MLB)

Price 98 (53rd in MLB)

(Note: ERA- is an adjusted stat)

 

WHIP

Price 1.19

Wright 1.21

 

To me, WAR over-emphasizes Ks (FIP).

 

Price had a large gap between fWAR and bWAR for the reasons you cited - but that's okay.

 

I think Price's fundamentals were more repeatable. Individual control of FIP is very very dicey - it's probably not 0, but it's not 100 and varies a lot by pitcher. The gap in fWAR I think reflected that Price is much more likely to deliver better performance going forward - which was true.

 

Strikeout rate is still the best simple measure of pitcher quality.

[moonslav59]

Price had a large gap between fWAR and bWAR for the reasons you cited - but that's okay.

 

I think Price's fundamentals were more repeatable. Individual control of FIP is very very dicey - it's probably not 0, but it's not 100 and varies a lot by pitcher. The gap in fWAR I think reflected that Price is much more likely to deliver better performance going forward - which was true.

 

Strikeout rate is still the best simple measure of pitcher quality.

 

I disagree.

 

While I see the predictive value to FIP and xFIP, I don't think it is an accurate measure of how well a pitcher did in a season.

 

There are plenty of examples of low K pitchers who had repeatable records of getting batters out at higher rates than high K pitchers. FIP penalizes those types of pitchers...like Wright.

 

Knuckleballers are usually not high K pitchers, but some have had long productive careers.

[sk7326]

I disagree.

 

While I see the predictive value to FIP and xFIP, I don't think it is an accurate measure of how well a pitcher did in a season.

 

There are plenty of examples of low K pitchers who had repeatable records of getting batters out at higher rates than high K pitchers. FIP penalizes those types of pitchers...like Wright.

 

Knuckleballers are usually not high K pitchers, but some have had long productive careers.

 

Knuckleballers often have very low BABIP - which is worth noting. Of course there is some extreme volatility.

 

Strikeout rate is not a perfect predictor. But it is hard to carry a low one without actually being on a terrific team. Nobody said it correlated perfectly - but it correlates really well, especially for starters. Peak Maddux was a strikeout pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree.

 

While I see the predictive value to FIP and xFIP, I don't think it is an accurate measure of how well a pitcher did in a season.

 

There are plenty of examples of low K pitchers who had repeatable records of getting batters out at higher rates than high K pitchers. FIP penalizes those types of pitchers...like Wright.

 

Knuckleballers are usually not high K pitchers, but some have had long productive careers.

 

moon, check out Brad Ziegler's career numbers. His FIP is about a run higher than his actual ERA.

[moonslav59]

Knuckleballers often have very low BABIP - which is worth noting. Of course there is some extreme volatility.

 

Strikeout rate is not a perfect predictor. But it is hard to carry a low one without actually being on a terrific team. Nobody said it correlated perfectly - but it correlates really well, especially for starters. Peak Maddux was a strikeout pitcher.

 

I agree on the predictive nature of high K pitchers and xFIP, but there are exceptions to every model.

 

Maddux only had 2 seasons with a K rate over 7.1 and none over 7.8. His decent FIP was fueled by leading the league in BB/9 nine times in his career (1.8 career) and his low H rate 8.5/9 and HR rate 0.6/9. These are very rare numbers for a lower K guy. His final career ERA was 3.16. His FIP was 3.26. (xFIP was not around for his peak seasons.)

 

Wake had a long career. His ERA was 4.41, but he pitched in a hitters park and faced tougher opponents than the average pitcher. His career ERA- was 96. However, his FIP was 4.72! (108 FIP-). That's ridiculous. Even his 1995 season going 16-8 with a 2,95 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, he ended up with a 4.53 FIP. There is a serious flaw in that.

 

RA Dickey's great season with a 2.73 ERA showed a 3.27 FIP. At least that was closer.

 

ERA/FIP

Jim Bouton 3.57/.3.83

RA Dickey 4.01/4.38

T Candiotti 3.73/.391

Joe Niekro 3.59/.379

Wilbur Wood 3.24/3.37

Hoyt Wilhelm 2..52/3.06

Charlie Hough 3.75/4.29

Phil Niekro 3.35/3.63

 

The best K pitchers (1000+ IP since 1956)

Randy J 3.30/3.20

K Wood 3.69/.390

C Sale 3.04/3.06

Pedro 2.95/2.91

Scherzer 3.40/3.28

Kershaw 2.37/2.55

N Ryan 3.19/2,97 (despite his 4.67 BB/9 rate)

Koufax 2.76/2.67

.

To me, ERA- is a better way of determining who did better than FIP

 

Best pitchers with 2000+ IP since 1956:

 

ERA-

67 Pedro

70 Clemens

75 Koufax

75 W Ford

75 Johnson

76 Maddux

76 Halladay

78 Palmer

78 Gibson

 

FIP

2.67 Koufax

2.89 Gibson

2.91 Pedro

2.96 Chance

2.97 Ryan (Come on!)

3.02 Drysdale

3.02 Matlack

3.30 Seaver

3.04 McDowell

3.04 Marichal

 

According to FIP, the worst pitchers since 1956 are:

 

4.88 Jeff Suppan

4.82 Steve Trachel

4.77 Wakefield

4.70 Garland

4.65 W Williams

4.52 B Arroyo

4.48 J Moyer

4.48 K Rogers

 

[sk7326]

I agree on the predictive nature of high K pitchers and xFIP, but there are exceptions to every model.

 

Maddux only had 2 seasons with a K rate over 7.1 and none over 7.8. His decent FIP was fueled by leading the league in BB/9 nine times in his career (1.8 career) and his low H rate 8.5/9 and HR rate 0.6/9. These are very rare numbers for a lower K guy. His final career ERA was 3.16. His FIP was 3.26. (xFIP was not around for his peak seasons.)

 

Wake had a long career. His ERA was 4.41, but he pitched in a hitters park and faced tougher opponents than the average pitcher. His career ERA- was 96. However, his FIP was 4.72! (108 FIP-). That's ridiculous. Even his 1995 season going 16-8 with a 2,95 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, he ended up with a 4.53 FIP. There is a serious flaw in that.

 

RA Dickey's great season with a 2.73 ERA showed a 3.27 FIP. At least that was closer.

 

ERA/FIP

Jim Bouton 3.57/.3.83

RA Dickey 4.01/4.38

T Candiotti 3.73/.391

Joe Niekro 3.59/.379

Wilbur Wood 3.24/3.37

Hoyt Wilhelm 2..52/3.06

Charlie Hough 3.75/4.29

Phil Niekro 3.35/3.63

 

The best K pitchers (1000+ IP since 1956)

Randy J 3.30/3.20

K Wood 3.69/.390

C Sale 3.04/3.06

Pedro 2.95/2.91

Scherzer 3.40/3.28

Kershaw 2.37/2.55

N Ryan 3.19/2,97 (despite his 4.67 BB/9 rate)

Koufax 2.76/2.67

.

To me, ERA- is a better way of determining who did better than FIP

 

Best pitchers with 2000+ IP since 1956:

 

ERA-

67 Pedro

70 Clemens

75 Koufax

75 W Ford

75 Johnson

76 Maddux

76 Halladay

78 Palmer

78 Gibson

 

FIP

2.67 Koufax

2.89 Gibson

2.91 Pedro

2.96 Chance

2.97 Ryan (Come on!)

3.02 Drysdale

3.02 Matlack

3.30 Seaver

3.04 McDowell

3.04 Marichal

 

According to FIP, the worst pitchers since 1956 are:

 

4.88 Jeff Suppan

4.82 Steve Trachel

4.77 Wakefield

4.70 Garland

4.65 W Williams

4.52 B Arroyo

4.48 J Moyer

4.48 K Rogers

 

 

wrong denominator = Maddux very frequently was near or over 20% K-rate, which is plenty good. Much higher than Glavine, Suppan, etc.

 

FIP controls for two things. Strand rate - which is a good thing (that is pretty random), and batted balls, which is much dicier (it's not random, but it does not seem that many pitchers can control it). The latter drives your problem. Individual pitchers can be really good without striking out hitters - but it's fairly rare and there has to be damn good reason. Otherwise you have to assume that it's just a guy on a really good team (which describes Ford and Palmer quite nicely).

[moonslav59]

wrong denominator = Maddux very frequently was near or over 20% K-rate, which is plenty good. Much higher than Glavine, Suppan, etc.

 

FIP controls for two things. Strand rate - which is a good thing (that is pretty random), and batted balls, which is much dicier (it's not random, but it does not seem that many pitchers can control it). The latter drives your problem. Individual pitchers can be really good without striking out hitters - but it's fairly rare and there has to be damn good reason. Otherwise you have to assume that it's just a guy on a really good team (which describes Ford and Palmer quite nicely).

 

Do you really think Wake was near the third worst pitcher since 1956?

[sk7326]

Do you really think Wake was near the third worst pitcher since 1956?

 

I think FIP is unkind to knuckleballers for the reasons we have discussed. The stat is not flawed - it's measurement is correct given the assumptions behind it. I think those assumptions breakdown for a pitcher like Wakefield.

 

I also think Wake's value to a team (which also describes knuckleballers) sort of stands outside of those figures.

[Jack Flap]

According to the Boston Globe, Eduardo Rodriguez “tweaked” the same right knee that made the Red Sox’ pitcher miss the first two months of 2016 while pitching for Navegantes del Magallanes in the Venezuelan Winter League. Rodriguez reportedly left after the first inning after feeling discomfort in the knee.

 

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the Globe in an email, “He tweaked his knee last night pitching. It doesn’t appear to be anything serious.”

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/12/28/eduardo-rodriguezs-right-knee-back-in-news-thanks-to-winter-ball-injury/

[S5Dewey]

This reinforces one of my concerns about the WBC. A serious injury (and I'm not saying ERod's is serious) can derail a MLB club's entire season.

 

I understand a player's desire to represent his country, but at the same time the often millions of dollars they're getting for playing in the US Major Leagues should give them pause for making the decision to play in the WBC.

[moonslav59]

I think FIP is unkind to knuckleballers for the reasons we have discussed. The stat is not flawed - it's measurement is correct given the assumptions behind it. I think those assumptions breakdown for a pitcher like Wakefield.

 

I also think Wake's value to a team (which also describes knuckleballers) sort of stands outside of those figures.

 

There are countless pitchers with low K rates that consistently got guys out and had lower ERAs than FIP. They get screwed by the metric. It's a giant hole.

 

Pitchers who get batters out should not be penalized because they lack a high K rate.

 

I get the reasoning behind trying to get the fielders out of the equation, and FIP has a use, but the giant bias needs to be corrected before I pay it much heed.

[moonslav59]

This reinforces one of my concerns about the WBC. A serious injury (and I'm not saying ERod's is serious) can derail a MLB club's entire season.

 

I understand a player's desire to represent his country, but at the same time the often millions of dollars they're getting for playing in the US Major Leagues should give them pause for making the decision to play in the WBC.

 

I get your concern, but plenty of US players play in the Olympics and risk hurting their team. There ahs been debate about that situation as well, and ERod playing anywhere else except Boston worries me, but I can't fault a guy for being patriotic.

[Kimmi]

According to the Boston Globe, Eduardo Rodriguez “tweaked” the same right knee that made the Red Sox’ pitcher miss the first two months of 2016 while pitching for Navegantes del Magallanes in the Venezuelan Winter League. Rodriguez reportedly left after the first inning after feeling discomfort in the knee.

 

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the Globe in an email, “He tweaked his knee last night pitching. It doesn’t appear to be anything serious.”

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/12/28/eduardo-rodriguezs-right-knee-back-in-news-thanks-to-winter-ball-injury/

 

I hope this is nothing serious, but the first time ERod tweaked his knee, it was 'nothing serious'. A 3 day injury then turned into a 3 month injury.

 

Anyway, this reinforces the importance of depth and why some of us would have preferred to keep Buchholz. You always think that you have enough pitching, but then you almost never do.

[Kimmi]

I get your concern, but plenty of US players play in the Olympics and risk hurting their team. There ahs been debate about that situation as well, and ERod playing anywhere else except Boston worries me, but I can't fault a guy for being patriotic.

 

I can't fault a player for wanting to represent his country in the WBC. And I personally love watching it. But I would really prefer that our pitchers did not participate in it.

[moonslav59]

I can't fault a player for wanting to represent his country in the WBC. And I personally love watching it. But I would really prefer that our pitchers did not participate in it.

 

Agreed. Maybe this tweak will be enough to keep him out of the games, but not affect his season with the sox.

Edited December 29, 2016 by moonslav59

[S5Dewey]

I can't fault a player for wanting to represent his country in the WBC. And I personally love watching it. But I would really prefer that our pitchers did not participate in it.

 

Yeah. That's what I was trying to say.

[a700hitter]

This isn't good to see. This knee is becoming problematic.

 

Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez suffered a seemingly minor right knee injury during his winter ball appearance last night, as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says that Rodriguez merely “tweaked” the joint, explaining that “it doesn’t appear to be anything serious.”

[FredLynn]

This isn't good to see. This knee is becoming problematic.

 

"It doesn't appear to be anything serious. He is expected back after the all star break"

[Hugh2]

"It doesn't appear to be anything serious. He is expected back after the all star break"

 

Where did you read that? That's over 1/2 the season.

[Bellhorn04]

Where did you read that? That's over 1/2 the season.

 

He was being sardonic.

[notin]

"it doesn't appear to be anything serious. He is expected back after the all star break"

 

what all star break?!?! 2016 or 2017?!??!

 

[oldtimer]

I notice that at least one in the Boston media is claimming Price is miserable in Boston.

[moonslav59]

I notice that at least one in the Boston media is claimming Price is miserable in Boston.

 

Link?

[harmony]

Link?

http://www.csnne.com/video/marc-bertrand-i-think-price-miserable-boston-2017-wont-change

[mvp 78]

Bertrand, LOL...

[Spudboy]

http://www.csnne.com/video/marc-bertrand-i-think-price-miserable-boston-2017-wont-change

 

Of course this Jello Shot of an expert commentator provide absolutely no facts to support his opinion.

[Spudboy]

Bertrand, LOL...

 

Exactly.

[raider_35_24]

Exactly.

 

yup..lol...that guy is a jackass...does he even know anything he says?

[moonslav59]

Top 3 starters by projected 2017 WAR:

 

13.6 LAD 7.7 Kershaw, 3.2 Hill, 2.7 Maeda

13.3 WSH 6.0 Scherzer, 4.4 Strasburg, 2.9 Gonzalez

13.1 NYM 5.7 Syndergaard, 3.9 deGrom, 3.6 Matz

12.9 BOS 4.8 Sale, 4.5 Price, 3.6 Porcello

12.7 CLE 4.9 Kluber, 4.5 Carrasco, 3.3 Salazar

12.0 SFG 4.9 Bumgarner, 4.2 Cueto, 2.9 Samardzija

11.9 CHC 4.5 Lester, 4.1 Arrieta, 3.2 Hendricks

 

According to these numbers, we have the best number 2 and second best number 3, but we finish 4th because our number 1 lacks significantly behind Kershaw, Syndergaard and Scherzer.