2017 Rotation

[S5Dewey]

That's fine, but what happens when we need it in 5-6 years from now?

 

Whatever position you will need to fill in 2020 (just picking a year to make a point) you'd need to have that talent in your system between 2015-2018 unless you go outside the system.

 

It takes 3-5 years to develop talent, so if we aren't getting that talent over the next couple of years we will HAVE to go outside the organization and pay FA prices. Now we will have all the money in the world by 2021, but I also suspect some people will be signed from here to there and presumably some will be big money extensions to our superstars.

 

We could always draft a gem in the 2nd or 5th rounds, but at this point luck is just as relevant if not more than skill when drafting stars there.

 

I'm not denying that this could bite us on the ass in the 2020's. It's going to depend on how well we draft, and realistically the chances of getting a blue-chip player in the draft gets lesser and lesser the farther down we draft. But that's the price a team pays for winning- which IMO is better than losing and not paying that price!

 

We've had some really good teams in the JH era as well as some crappy ones. If we have a bad team in 2022 as a result of at least one WSC in 2017-2020 it'll make up for what may be another crappy team in 2022.

 

In the whole scope of things I wouldn't give up any one of those WS rings in exchange for finishing even 2nd in the AL East in 2014 & 2015. Mediocrity is not the goal. Winning the WS is the goal and the Sox are all-in on doing it for the next three years. Maybe we'll win at least one and maybe we won't but at least we'll know that we've "left it all on the field" and didn't settle for mediocrity.

Edited December 14, 2016 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

DD better keep Devers. With openings at 3B and 1B/DH in the next year or two, he's got to be a keeper.

 

Keeping Travis makes sense as well.

 

We can hope Groome fills in for Pom and then Porcello down the road, but I've been told not to get my hopes up on single A pitchers.

 

Maybe we'll have a sleeper rise to the top and fill a key role in 2020 and beyond, but we even gutted out a lot of those types.

 

I'm happy with where we are. I think we'll be able to keep most of our kids, perhaps at a great financial cost, but in doing so, we're going to need a bunch of low cost players to fill in the rest of the roster without sucking.

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski is not incapable of rebuilding moves. Trading Cespedes for Fulmer was a dandy little rebuilding move he made just before he got canned.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski is not incapable of rebuilding moves. Trading Cespedes for Fulmer was a dandy little rebuilding move he made just before he got canned.

 

He could have similar opportunities to trade a star before free agency, but won't we have to be losing for that to be a viable option?

[Spudboy]

I'm not denying that this could bite us on the ass in the 2020's. It's going to depend on how well we draft, and realistically the chances of getting a blue-chip player in the draft gets lesser and lesser the farther down we draft. But that's the price a team pays for winning- which IMO is better than losing and not paying that price!

 

We've had some really good teams in the JH era as well as some crappy ones. If we have a bad team in 2022 as a result of at least one WSC in 2017-2020 it'll make up for what may be another crappy team in 2022.

 

In the whole scope of things I wouldn't give up any one of those WS rings in exchange for finishing even 2nd in the AL East in 2014 & 2015. Mediocrity is not the goal. Winning the WS is the goal and the Sox are all-in on doing it for the next three years. Maybe we'll win at least one and maybe we won't but at least we'll know that we've "left it all on the field" and didn't settle for mediocrity.

 

Amen, Brah.

[Bellhorn04]

He could have similar opportunities to trade a star before free agency, but won't we have to be losing for that to be a viable option?

 

This might be in the year 2020, our supposed 'cliff year'. We do have a bunch of guys who are under team control in 2020. Pedroia, JBJ, Mookie, Carson Smith, ERod, Swihart, Wright and Vazquez. Price if he doesn't opt out. Plus other guys we might sign in the meantime.

[moonslav59]

This might be in the year 2020, our supposed 'cliff year'. We do have a bunch of guys who are under team control in 2020. Pedroia, JBJ, Mookie, Carson Smith, ERod, Swihart, Wright and Vazquez. Price if he doesn't opt out. Plus other guys we might sign in the meantime.

 

Maybe Pablo rebuilds his stock a bit and we can trade him for prospects after Devers steals his job away.

 

Maybe we trade HanRam at the dealine of his last year here, and Devers (or Pablo) or Travis moves into the 1B job.

 

Maybe Owens or Johnson surprise us, and we can afford to trade away a starter.

 

There may come a day (cover your ears and crucifixes) we trade Pedey.

 

As of now, it looks like we'd want to keep Betts, Bradley, Beni and Bogey for longer than we have control of them now.

 

Price opting out could be a blessing. It would allow us to keep maybe 2 others.

[harmony]

"It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."

 

That's a criticism of ERA and WHIP, not WAR, which is an accumulative statistic that rewards a pitcher for pitching more innings.

 

WAR is not a be-all stat but it may be the best starting point in player valuation.

Edited December 14, 2016 by harmony

[sk7326]

WAR is a counting stat - so bulk matters. It definitely is not a be-all and end-all, but nobody said it was. It is an excellent starting point for identifying player value though. fWAR is probably a better metric to evaluate future performance, while bWAR might be better for awards and such.

[southpaw777]

That's fine, but what happens when we need it in 5-6 years from now?

 

Thats what drafts, both national and international, and trades are for. Im pretty sure we can make some moves over the next three years

 

Whatever position you will need to fill in 2020 (just picking a year to make a point) you'd need to have that talent in your system between 2015-2018 unless you go outside the system.

It takes 3-5 years to develop talent, so if we aren't getting that talent over the next couple of years we will HAVE to go outside the organization and pay FA prices. Now we will have all the money in the world by 2021, but I also suspect some people will be signed from here to there and presumably some will be big money extensions to our superstars.

 

no, it doesnt always take 3-5 years to develop. Plenty of kids are ready within a couple years and even by year three.

Benintendi and Betts made a pretty quick rise and Xander was up at age 20. Thats three of our future core moving forward.

 

We could always draft a gem in the 2nd or 5th rounds, but at this point luck is just as relevant if not more than skill when drafting stars there.

 

I think some of you stress way too much about the kids. I also think the thought to rebuild/stock a farm system in 3 years being nearly impossible is kinda funny and slightly dramatic ...at least thats the way some make it out to be...not necessarily you, just in general from the "our future is doomed because of these trades" crowd....

Those that know me know that i have followed the prospects for a long time as well as the big club and I pay attention to how the farm system is handled. We have 5 young cost controlled position players right now from our system in Boston.

Xander, Mookie, JBJ, Benintendi, Vazquez...thats pretty damn good. Every position is filled for the next three years barring injury. We have corner IF prospects at the higher levels and a large group of very talented kids in the lower levels. Some of which should break out over the next couple years.

We have the $$$ off the books over the next theee years to pay them when its time. We can make more trades and draft to replenish the system. Three years is a very long time in MLB...way too much can hapoen to be so down regarding the future. Ive heard DD mention building the system back up again on more than one occasion...Im not too worried about that getting done. As long as the Sox have this ownership, im confident that they will put together a playoff/WS calibur team....

Moon keeps talking about past drafts and not doing well...different GM and different personel. This past draft looks like we got a couple possible gems if their development goes good, so im not overly concerned.

[moonslav59]

Xander, Mookie, JBJ, Benintendi, Vazquez...thats pretty damn good.

 

Bogey was an international signing, and I hope we can continue doing well in that area, but supposedly it is going to be more difficult to acquire so much top talent as we have in recent years (Moncada, Bogey, Espi, Margot & Devers to name a few) through international signings.

 

Mookie is the only low round draft pick turned mega star in 9 years (since Rizzo in 2007).

 

JBJ was a comp pick- not getting any of those for a while.

 

Beni is a top 10 pick- not getting any of those for a while.

 

Vaz is our back-up catcher.

 

Every position is filled for the next three years barring injury. We have corner IF prospects at the higher levels and a large group of very talented kids in the lower levels. Some of which should break out over the next couple years.

 

Not likely trades of prospects for quality ML talent. If it's trading top ML talent for prospects, then what are we talking about? A fire sale?

 

We have the $$$ off the books over the next the years to pay them when its time.

 

Most of the money coming off the books will be eaten up by significant arb raises, until we lose Porcello, HanRam, Bogey in others after 2019. Try to replace those three in kind with what comes off the books that year.

 

We can make more trades and draft to replenish the system.

 

I hope so, but there will be no top picks to get us Beni & Groome for a while, and our record after pick number 16 is not good over the last 9-12 years.

 

Three years is a very long time in MLB...way too much can hapoen to be so down regarding the future. Ive heard DD mention building the system back up again on more than one occasion...

 

With what? A magic hat or a jeanie in a bottle?

 

Im not too worried about that getting done. As long as the Sox have this ownership, im confident that they will put together a playoff/WS calibur team....

Moon keeps talking about past drafts and not doing well...different GM and different personel. This past draft looks like we got a couple possible gems if their development goes good, so im not overly concerned.

 

I don't see DD as a farm builder upgrade over Ben. Sorry.

 

I don't know about the new scouts and personnel guys added, and I guess there's hope there, but it's not easy for any system to draft well beyond the 24th pick every year.

[moonslav59]

WAR is a counting stat - so bulk matters. It definitely is not a be-all and end-all, but nobody said it was. It is an excellent starting point for identifying player value though. fWAR is probably a better metric to evaluate future performance, while bWAR might be better for awards and such.

 

I like WAR, even with the problems it has, but there are always cases that come up that just make me shake my head.

 

I get that IP matters a lot, but look at the first half WARs of Price (2.6) and Wright (2.1).

 

Should ten extra innings make that much of a difference?

 

Price 124

Wright 114

 

ERA-

Wright 61 (3rd in MLB)

Price 98 (53rd in MLB)

(Note: ERA- is an adjusted stat)

 

WHIP

Price 1.19

Wright 1.21

 

To me, WAR over-emphasizes Ks (FIP).

[Hugh2]

That's fine, but what happens when we need it in 5-6 years from now?

 

Thats what drafts, both national and international, and trades are for. Im pretty sure we can make some moves over the next three years

 

Whatever position you will need to fill in 2020 (just picking a year to make a point) you'd need to have that talent in your system between 2015-2018 unless you go outside the system.

It takes 3-5 years to develop talent, so if we aren't getting that talent over the next couple of years we will HAVE to go outside the organization and pay FA prices. Now we will have all the money in the world by 2021, but I also suspect some people will be signed from here to there and presumably some will be big money extensions to our superstars.

 

no, it doesnt always take 3-5 years to develop. Plenty of kids are ready within a couple years and even by year three.

Benintendi and Betts made a pretty quick rise and Xander was up at age 20. Thats three of our future core moving forward.

 

We could always draft a gem in the 2nd or 5th rounds, but at this point luck is just as relevant if not more than skill when drafting stars there.

 

I think some of you stress way too much about the kids. I also think the thought to rebuild/stock a farm system in 3 years being nearly impossible is kinda funny and slightly dramatic ...at least thats the way some make it out to be...not necessarily you, just in general from the "our future is doomed because of these trades" crowd....

Those that know me know that i have followed the prospects for a long time as well as the big club and I pay attention to how the farm system is handled. We have 5 young cost controlled position players right now from our system in Boston.

Xander, Mookie, JBJ, Benintendi, Vazquez...thats pretty damn good. Every position is filled for the next three years barring injury. We have corner IF prospects at the higher levels and a large group of very talented kids in the lower levels. Some of which should break out over the next couple years.

We have the $$$ off the books over the next theee years to pay them when its time. We can make more trades and draft to replenish the system. Three years is a very long time in MLB...way too much can hapoen to be so down regarding the future. Ive heard DD mention building the system back up again on more than one occasion...Im not too worried about that getting done. As long as the Sox have this ownership, im confident that they will put together a playoff/WS calibur team....

Moon keeps talking about past drafts and not doing well...different GM and different personel. This past draft looks like we got a couple possible gems if their development goes good, so im not overly concerned.

 

Do we stress too much?

 

I hate that narrative, not that I hate you I like you but I hate that narrative. We all cheer and root for our team in different ways, a farm system is important to me and how we handle it and fill it matters. I'm not losing any sleep over the depletion of the Sox farm system but as a fan who cares about today, tomorrow and next year I do find concern in how the replenish the system. If for nothing else, at least it's a talking about and a relevant one at that. I will find it very fascinating how the Sox handle that over the next 5 years. Perhaps they do find a way to stock the system and get ahead of the curve? maybe they have better scouts coming up through the system, maybe they are able to make some trades to replenish the system, maybe they hit a the lottery and strike gold in the later round? Just because we show concern doesn't mean we see it impossible rather it's something some of us care to talk about. The way the CBA has changed over the years and recently has taken away pretty much every avenue the sox have traveled over the years. Now we can sit here all day and have a pissing contest about how relevant that is but if it doesn't concern some people that's fine....it concerns me and it concerns moon and I'm sure others are as well. But as I said earlier, I doubt we are losing any sleep over it and I'm sure I'll be rocking a Sale jersey at some point next year.

Edited December 15, 2016 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[harmony]

I like WAR, even with the problems it has, but there are always cases that come up that just make me shake my head.

 

I get that IP matters a lot, but look at the first half WARs of Price (2.6) and Wright (2.1).

 

Should ten extra innings make that much of a difference?

 

Price 124

Wright 114

 

ERA-

Wright 61 (3rd in MLB)

Price 98 (53rd in MLB)

(Note: ERA- is an adjusted stat)

 

WHIP

Price 1.19

Wright 1.21

 

To me, WAR over-emphasizes Ks (FIP).

I suspect fWAR is not that simplistic. fWAR probably takes into account BABIP and HR/FB where in the first half last year David Price posted .321 and 15.2 while Steven Wright posted .271 and 6.5:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=30&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=

 

Somewhat unrelated, but here is an explanation of descriptive and predictive statistics:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-beginners-guide-to-understanding-descriptive-and-predictive-stats/#more-2807

Edited December 15, 2016 by harmony

[moonslav59]

it concerns me and it concerns moon and I'm sure others are as well. But as I said earlier, I doubt we are losing any sleep over it and I'm sure I'll be rocking a Sale jersey at some point next year.

 

Well said. We all want the Sox to win now and until our last breath.

[moonslav59]

I suspect fWAR is not that simplistic. fWAR probably takes into account BABIP and HR/FB where in the first half last year David Price posted .321 and 15.2 while Steven Wright posted .271 and 6.5:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=30&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=

 

Somewhat unrelated, but here is an explanation of descriptive and predictive statistics:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-beginners-guide-to-understanding-descriptive-and-predictive-stats/#more-2807

 

Thanks for the links.

 

I have a better understanding of the predictive part of WAR, but I disagree with its usage. There are some pitchers that never have been high K pitchers, or they let up a lot of solo HRs (like knuckleballers), but they are penalized because there numbers predict worse results than they continually get.

[Foe-Jarmer]

Thanks for the links.

 

I have a better understanding of the predictive part of WAR, but I disagree with its usage. There are some pitchers that never have been high K pitchers, or they let up a lot of solo HRs (like knuckleballers), but they are penalized because there numbers predict worse results than they continually get.

 

I've also never understood why DHs get negative WAR points for fielding when it should be neutral?

[moonslav59]

I've also never understood why DHs get negative WAR points for fielding when it should be neutral?

 

What gets me is why some DH's get more negatives than others.

 

It doesn't seem to be linked to PAs as a DH.

 

Better look at just the batting or offensive category on fangraphs to judge DHs.

 

Here's how Sox player ranked in the top 270 (30 teams x 9 players) MLBs in batting (300+ PAs):

 

1) Trout 58.3

2) Votto 48.4

3) Ortiz 47.0

14) Betts 30.8

33) Ramirez 20.0

42 Pedroia 17.2

58) Bradley 13.6

71) Bogaerts 11.6

 

When you factor in base running, here are the rankings for overall offense:

8 Betts

9 Ortiz

41 JBJ

44 HanRam

46 Bogey

63 Pedey

 

Papi and Pedey decline, but the others move up a lot.

 

Also, even with losing Ortiz, we will have 5 of the top 62 2016 batters in MLB. The norm should be about 2.

 

[southpaw777]

it concerns me and it concerns moon and I'm sure others are as well. But as I said earlier, I doubt we are losing any sleep over it and I'm sure I'll be rocking a Sale jersey at some point next year.

 

Well said. We all want the Sox to win now and until our last breath.

 

Fair enough. I know you both are, and always will be sox fans. In the end we all want the same thing even if we believe in going about it different ways...

[harmony]

From today's chat with MLB Trade Rumors columnist Jeffrey Todd:

 

SI

2:58 Mariners need another Starting Pitcher.... best guess of who.

 

Jeffrey Todd

2:59 I like them for Hammel, seems a solid place for him. Otherwise, a Buchholz type via trade? Heck, I wonder if the Sox would have interest in Seth Smith.

https://www.jotcast.com/chat?id=1776

 

I hope the Mariners shoot higher than Clay Buchholz.

[moonslav59]

From today's chat with MLB Trade Rumors columnist Jeffrey Todd:

 

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat?id=1776

 

I hope the Mariners shoot higher than Clay Buchholz.

 

I hope they overpay for him.

[Eddy Ballgame]

From today's chat with MLB Trade Rumors columnist Jeffrey Todd:

 

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat?id=1776

 

I hope the Mariners shoot higher than Clay Buchholz.

 

After the Sox signed Mitch Moreland, my guess is that the Sox have absolutely no interest in Seth Smith whatsoever. If the Sox do decide to trade Buchholz prior to spring training, I'll also guess that they'll wan't some type of prospect in return.

[moonslav59]

After the Sox signed Mitch Moreland, my guess is that the Sox have absolutely no interest in Seth Smith whatsoever. If the Sox do decide to trade Buchholz prior to spring training, I'll also guess that they'll wan't some type of prospect in return.

 

I just posted this on another thread....

 

MLBTR Chat...

 

Todd Frazier?

3:11 Where does he land?

 

Jeffrey Todd

3:12 I feel like they ought to be plenty motivated to deal him... Giants could still make sense, or maybe even the Red Sox if they clear Buchholz salary?

Maybe a 3 team deal?

 

We send Buch and Abad to a contender.

 

We send Owens and Elias to the CWS.

 

The contender sends a prospect to the CWS.

 

We get Frazier and free up luxury tax space.

 

[harmony]

I hope they overpay for him.

Not likely, according to this information a Seattle blogger attributed to Mariner GM Jerry Dipoto from a conversation last week:

Biggest one first. I asked him about looking for a starting pitcher, and specifically if they had asked Boston about their surplus of pitchers. I mentioned Drew Pomeranz, and he said they called Boston after the Sale trade and asked about him. Dombrowski said they are 100% not trading him. First of all, I'm surprised Jerry was that willing to talk about something like that, I wasn't expecting much of an answer. We both agreed Bucholz isn't where they want to look, so no Red Sox trade it seems. I would have liked Pomeranz, but oh well.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/12/10/13906272/dipotos-ll-christmas-gift

[harmony]

Working off Baseball America's midseason Top 100 list, if Drew Pomeranz last July was worth 15th-ranked prospect Anderson Espinoza, would the lefthander now be worth the 45th-ranked prospect, Seattle outfield prospect Tyler O'Neill, given Pomeranz's exposed medicals, lackluster post-trade performance and diminished duration of team control?

 

The Mariners are in no position to weaken a rebuilding farm system, but I'm trying to get a handle on relative value.

 

O'Neill might be a better fit for the less-contending Tampa Bay Rays, who could offer healthier lefthander Drew Smyly, who about matches Pomeranz in age, projected WAR and years of team control.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11760&position=P

Edited December 16, 2016 by harmony

[Kimmi]

Fair enough. I know you both are, and always will be sox fans. In the end we all want the same thing even if we believe in going about it different ways...

 

Do you agree that building a strong franchise begins with building and maintaining a strong farm system?

[jacksonianmarch]

That deal sounds awful

[moonslav59]

That deal sounds awful

 

Agreed.

 

To me, my disgust over the Espi trade was never about Pomeranz. I like him and think he'll bounce back nicely.

[harmony]

Agreed.

 

To me, my disgust over the Espi trade was never about Pomeranz. I like him and think he'll bounce back nicely.

Does Drew Pomeranz have more or less trade value than he did when the lefthander was traded to the Red Sox two days after his appearance in the All Star Game?

 

Keep in mind Pomeranz's exposed medicals, lackluster post-trade performance and diminished duration of team control. In the offseason prospective trade partners are not operating in a pennant race under the pressure of an approaching trade deadline.

[moonslav59]

Does Drew Pomeranz have more or less trade value than he did when the lefthander was traded to the Red Sox two days after his appearance in the All Star Game?

 

Keep in mind Pomeranz's exposed medicals, lackluster post-trade performance and diminished duration of team control. In the offseason prospective trade partners are not operating in a pennant race under the pressure of an approaching trade deadline.

 

His trade value if lower, but why would we want to trade him when his stock is low?

 

I trust the Sox medical team checked out Pom's injury condition, when they decided not to nix the deal. The post-trade low performance was likely injury related, so to me those two are the same side of the coin.

 

They traded for 2.5 years of Pom and have 2 years left. That's 20%, but it's also 1 out of 3 playoff cycles or 33%. I can see diminished value on that point, but not from Espi to O'Neill. Remember, I probably value Espi more than just about anyone else on this site, so there's that when weighing my opinion.