A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Wade Boggs]

Is Pom the next Buch?

 

 

Yes. The deal should have not been made. DD could've backed out. He didn't do it. DD could have made two mistakes into one trade.

[moonslav59]

I suggested this near the end of last season but you and others objected.

 

Buch had runs of effectiveness and even dominance.

 

This guy is more like Henry Owens with a blip of success on his record.

 

Good thing we have so much starter depth!

 

Losing Clay you can handle. With Pomeranz being damaged goods is not.

 

I objected?

 

I was one of the most outspoken posters against the Pom trade right from the start.

[User Name]

Oh man it's going to be so great once Pom gets his s*** together and becomes an All-Star caliber pitcher here, just like Porcello before him. Buying my popcorn right now.

[Nick]

We don't know if $31M arm is coming back this year but we're all worried about the $4M man. And now we long for a guy that's owed $12.5M who DISAPPEARED LAST YEAR DURING CRITICAL STRETCH THAT FORCED THE SOX TO LOOK FOR EXACT STARTING PITCHING HELP.

 

Bunch of Monday morning quarterbacks.

 

DD was hired to win.

 

2016 Division Champs

2017 Why not wait and see what happens before you jump off the ledge.

[Fisk]

Oh man it's going to be so great once Pom gets his s*** together and becomes an All-Star caliber pitcher here, just like Porcello before him. Buying my popcorn right now.

 

There is a big recency bias among redsox fans.

[Fisk]

We don't know if $31M arm is coming back this year but we're all worried about the $4M man. And now we long for a guy that's owed $12.5M who DISAPPEARED LAST YEAR DURING CRITICAL STRETCH THAT FORCED THE SOX TO LOOK FOR EXACT STARTING PITCHING HELP.

 

Bunch of Monday morning quarterbacks.

 

DD was hired to win.

 

2016 Division Champs

2017 Why not wait and see what happens before you jump off the ledge.

 

No reason to jump off the ledge if worst case scenario with both pitchers, which I doubt. We still have 4 solid starters.

[moonslav59]

There is a big recency bias among redsox fans.

 

True 'nuff!

[mvp 78]

Oh man it's going to be so great once Pom gets his s*** together and becomes an All-Star caliber pitcher here, just like Porcello before him. Buying my popcorn right now.

 

Don't pop your kernels until the rollercoaster ride ends. He's only thrown over 100 innings as a starter once. Comparing him to Porcello is a huge slap in the face to Porcello's pedigree.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P&season=0&split=8.1

[mvp 78]

There is a big recency bias among redsox fans.

 

The recency bias with Pom is the first half of 2016.

[Fisk]

The recency bias with Pom is the first half of 2016.

 

The recency bias is just not Pom it's any player who is struggling.

[mvp 78]

The recency bias is just not Pom it's any player who is struggling.

 

I agree. However, in the case of Pom, his career has been so wild that it's not fair to suggest that Sox fans are down on Pom just because of his bad 2nd half. If he had a longer track record of success than just 3 months, maybe there would be a point to the argument.

 

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[Fisk]

I think the biggest reason they are down on him is because of Espinoza. If he stays healthy( which is a big if ) I think he will be solid. Very good for a number 5 starter, but you don't trade a prospect like Espi for a number 5.

[jacksonianmarch]

Porcello's issue was performance. Pomeranz has a major health history

[Kimmi]

Yes. The deal should have not been made. DD could've backed out. He didn't do it. DD could have made two mistakes into one trade.

 

I didn't like giving up Espinoza for Pom, but that trade had to be done, IMO. We needed some stability in the 4 and 5 spots of our rotation, and Pom provided that.

 

That said, once reports came out about Pom's arm issues, whatever they were, Dombrowski perhaps should have backed out of the trade.

[harmony]

I didn't like giving up Espinoza for Pom, but that trade had to be done, IMO. We needed some stability in the 4 and 5 spots of our rotation, and Pom provided that.

 

That said, once reports came out about Pom's arm issues, whatever they were, Dombrowski perhaps should have backed out of the trade.

Should Dave Dombrowski have offered Michael Kopech instead of Anderson Espinoza when the Drew Pomeranz injury was revealed?

 

On July 11 Baseball America released its midseason prospect rankings with Espinoza at No. 15 and Kopech at No. 93:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#gjf5CCb1ZUj2EVO7.97

 

The Pomeranz trade came three days later.

 

BA's current preseason prospect rankings have Espinoza No. 21 and Kopech No. 32:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects/#HKLqw3BQFvUHjoK0.97

 

Baseball Prospectus has Espinoza No. 24 and Kopech No. 36:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160

 

MLB Prospect Watch has Espinoza No. 25 and Kopech No. 16:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

[Kimmi]

Should Dave Dombrowski have offered Michael Kopech instead of Anderson Espinoza when the Drew Pomeranz injury was revealed?

 

On July 11 Baseball America released its midseason prospect rankings with Espinoza at No. 15 and Kopech at No. 93:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#gjf5CCb1ZUj2EVO7.97

 

The Pomeranz trade came three days later.

 

BA's current preseason prospect rankings have Espinoza No. 21 and Kopech No. 32:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects/#HKLqw3BQFvUHjoK0.97

 

Baseball Prospectus has Espinoza No. 24 and Kopech No. 36:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160

 

MLB Prospect Watch has Espinoza No. 25 and Kopech No. 16:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

 

None of us knows for sure what was in those medical reports. Dombrowski and team obviously didn't think it was that big of a deal. We'll find out soon enough if it was a big deal or not.

 

At that time, Preller likely would not have accepted Kopech.

[harmony]

None of us knows for sure what was in those medical reports. Dombrowski and team obviously didn't think it was that big of a deal. We'll find out soon enough if it was a big deal or not.

 

At that time, Preller likely would not have accepted Kopech.

We'll never know but San Diego GM A.J. Preller was not in a great negotiating position after the injury was revealed.

[User Name]

Don't pop your kernels until the rollercoaster ride ends. He's only thrown over 100 innings as a starter once. Comparing him to Porcello is a huge slap in the face to Porcello's pedigree.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P&season=0&split=8.1

 

The point of the comparison is the tendency pitchers have to (for whatever reason) struggle when first arriving to Boston, then getting their s*** together. Lackey (health), Porcello (performance) are two recent cases.

[User Name]

Also, I will slap Porcello in his horse face whenever I damn well please!

[Nick]

The point of the comparison is the tendency pitchers have to (for whatever reason) struggle when first arriving to Boston, then getting their s*** together. Lackey (health), Porcello (performance) are two recent cases.

 

I'm pretty certain 90% of Sox fans at 2015 All Star break was wondering why in the hell we extended Porcello for 4 years at $80M.

[mvp 78]

The point of the comparison is the tendency pitchers have to (for whatever reason) struggle when first arriving to Boston, then getting their s*** together. Lackey (health), Porcello (performance) are two recent cases.

 

Porcello had a very strong 2nd half in 2015. Many Sox fans noticed that.

[moonslav59]

I didn't like giving up Espinoza for Pom, but that trade had to be done, IMO. We needed some stability in the 4 and 5 spots of our rotation, and Pom provided that.

 

That said, once reports came out about Pom's arm issues, whatever they were, Dombrowski perhaps should have backed out of the trade.

 

It didn't "have to be done".

 

Yes, we seemed to need a starter, but one, he wasn't the only starter out there, and two, it turned out we did fine without Pom doing much for us anyway.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty certain 90% of Sox fans at 2015 All Star break was wondering why in the hell we extended Porcello for 4 years at $80M.

 

I guess I've always been in that 10%.

[Nick]

It didn't "have to be done".

 

Yes, we seemed to need a starter, but one, he wasn't the only starter out there, and two, it turned out we did fine without Pom doing much for us anyway.

 

Again, after the fact. You just didn't like what we gave up. Something had to be done.

[Fisk]

Of course at that time we needed a starter, we had Porcello, Price and Wright and some really bad starts from everybody else. We stayed ahead of the market for Pom. The return on Rich Hill was even worse. Beane was also asking for Espi for Hill , an upcoming free agent who was injured. for it to work out for us Pom has to stay healthy, but Espi is a long way from being a major league pitcher and a lot of factors can impede his development.

[moonslav59]

Again, after the fact. You just didn't like what we gave up. Something had to be done.

 

No. Not "after the fact."

 

I hated the trade at the time, and said so repeatedly.

 

I do think we could have used another starter, but it was not essential. I said that at the time too.

 

When the league offered a give back, I said we should do it, even knowing we were past the trade deadline, and it meant we'd have to finish the season without Pom.

 

Something did not "have to be done", At worst, we could have traded for a 5th starter tyep for less of a bounty/

[User Name]

Porcello had a very strong 2nd half in 2015. Many Sox fans noticed that.

 

Wait, wasn't I the main Porcello defender on this site? Shut your face, I'm trying to make a point here.

[moonslav59]

Of course at that time we needed a starter, we had Porcello, Price and Wright and some really bad starts from everybody else. We stayed ahead of the market for Pom. The return on Rich Hill was even worse. Beane was also asking for Espi for Hill , an upcoming free agent who was injured. for it to work out for us Pom has to stay healthy, but Espi is a long way from being a major league pitcher and a lot of factors can impede his development.

 

At the time of the trade, we were 50-38 and 2 games up in the division.

 

Seems we were doing pretty good despite the fact that we had these numbers from our 4 through 9 starters:

 

3-9 5.91 Buch (13 GS)

2-0 8.46 Kelly (6)

1-3 8.59 ERod (6)

2-0 6.75 O'Sullivan (4)

0-0 5.11 Owens (3)

0-1 15.88 Elias (1)

 

No doubt, these numbers were frightening, while Pomeranz had put up great numbers in the first half of 2016, but we didn't "have to" do anything. Pomeranz's second half performance proved we didn't, and yes that is hindsight, but I still think we didn't need to try and find a number 3 type starter. A one year fifth starter rental was an option as well as doing nothing but hope Buch or ERod would rebound.

[moonslav59]

Wait, wasn't I the main Porcello defender on this site? Shut your face, I'm trying to make a point here.

 

I loved the Porcello extension from day one, but I was on another site defending the extension even through the rough patch of early 2015.

[Nick]

Let's give us five starters for now.

 

Is our option after those five really the WORST in MLB? Are we that bad?