A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Kimmi]

I'm sure guys don't like to be moved in the batting order. Wade Boggs ate chicken every day too, and most players won't step on the white lines coming off the field. Whether as a manager you should cater to these silly superstitions--that's a different question.

 

Baseball players are very much creatures of habit and superstitious. That said, I'm sure many players can also move around comfortably and not be bothered by it one bit.

 

IMO, a manager should cater to those with superstitions, within reason, because having a player feeling comfortable and confident likely benefits the team more than tweaking the lineup according to splits, etc. OTOH, players also have to be willing to do what is in the best interest of the team.

 

It is Farrell's job to know his players well enough to know how to best set the line up.

[Kimmi]

Solid outing for E Rod......

 

Lets look back. All of us had our panties in a wad when we heard he 'tweaked' his knee in winter ball. He did tell us not to worry.

 

He simply looks comfortable out there. I am glad that he's focusing on the season. This is HIS comparable year to Lester's break out year.

 

I predict Price will be fine. Just need to see Wright and Pom get on the mound next week.

 

Sandoval with couple hits including a homer to dead center today. I've trashed him as much as anyone else but I'm glad he's healthy and playing well.

 

Swihart with his second hit. I'm sorry but offensively, I'd take Swihart over the other two. He needs to stay behind the plate. We'll have a catcher with speed that can hit .300. Not too many of those out there.

 

To be fair, Erod and the team also told us that the first injury was not serious, and the initial report was that he would be back in 72 hours. Three days turned into 3 months.

 

As far as Swihart is concerned, my top priority for a catcher is his work behind the plate. I don't care how good his offense is if he's not a good receiver and the pitchers don't like throwing to him. I'm not saying that's the case, just saying that his .300 BA and his speed won't matter to me without the defense.

[Kimmi]

Would not be surprised to see Swihart win the job out of spring training, I know it hurts our flexibility, but have no faith in Leon.

 

I would be very surprised if Swihart wins the job out of spring training, barring injury to Leon or Vazquez. It would also be a very stupid decision, IMO.

[Nick]

To be fair, Erod and the team also told us that the first injury was not serious, and the initial report was that he would be back in 72 hours. Three days turned into 3 months.

 

As far as Swihart is concerned, my top priority for a catcher is his work behind the plate. I don't care how good his offense is if he's not a good receiver and the pitchers don't like throwing to him. I'm not saying that's the case, just saying that his .300 BA and his speed won't matter to me without the defense.

 

He has to be an average defensive catcher for sure. But there's no reason not to think he will get there. He essentially lost a whole year's development last year with position switch (injury occurred because of the position change.)

[Nick]

Same old Kimbrel.

 

Walks the first hitter after getting ahead 0-2. That in a nutshell is essence of Kimbrel. Oh by the way he surrendered 3 runs without the benefit of a home run.

 

I hope someone else comes through this year so we don't have to pick up his option for $12.5M in 2018.

 

I will root for him but its frustrating. Closer should be able to locate.

Edited March 12, 2017 by Nick

[Kimmi]

He has to be an average defensive catcher for sure. But there's no reason not to think he will get there. He essentially lost a whole year's development last year with position switch (injury occurred because of the position change.)

 

Agreed, I think he will get there. I strongly believe that he needs to start the season in AAA and that he needs to focus on catching only.

[Fisk]

I would be very surprised if Swihart wins the job out of spring training, barring injury to Leon or Vazquez. It would also be a very stupid decision, IMO.

 

I obviously don't find it stupid, already Farrell mentioned his framing

with an adjustment has improved. Again I know it will hurt depth but do not like Leon's bat at all and not going to be hard to find a replacement level catcher available to stash in Pawtucket.

I believe Norris was designated for assignment by Washington yesterday.

[Fisk]

Can't wait for Harmony to post Swiharts projections.

[moonslav59]

Thats a scary potential black hole v RHP with the last three guys in that lineup.

 

It might not look pretty on paper, but I bet those bottom 3 slots outperform at least 20 other teams in MLB this year.

 

It's hard for me to view it as a weakness in this context.

[Kimmi]

I obviously don't find it stupid, already Farrell mentioned his framing

with an adjustment has improved. Again I know it will hurt depth but do not like Leon's bat at all and not going to be hard to find a replacement level catcher available to stash in Pawtucket.

I believe Norris was designated for assignment by Washington yesterday.

 

Did not mean to disrespect your opinion, which I do respect. I really think it would be a bad decision, however, to lose one of Leon or Vazquez based off of spring training results. JMO

[Fisk]

It might not look pretty on paper, but I bet those bottom 3 slots outperform at least 20 other teams in MLB this year.

 

It's hard for me to view it as a weakness in this context.

 

Agree Moonslav

[Fisk]

Did not mean to disrespect your opinion, which I do respect. I really think it would be a bad decision, however, to lose one of Leon or Vazquez based off of spring training results. JMO

 

Thank you. But for me I'm not basing it on spring results, m basing it on Leon's history except for that 2 month period last year. Do not think he can come close to that. Hope I'm wrong.

[Wade Boggs]

Same old Kimbrel.

 

Walks the first hitter after getting ahead 0-2. That in a nutshell is essence of Kimbrel. Oh by the way he surrendered 3 runs without the benefit of a home run.

 

I hope someone else comes through this year so we don't have to pick up his option for $12.5M in 2018.

 

I will root for him but its frustrating. Closer should be able to locate.

 

I'm just the opposite if he doesn't pitch good, we just gave up three good prospects for nothing. I think he will be fine. But yes sometimes he has everyone on edge. I agree.

[moonslav59]

Baseball players are very much creatures of habit and superstitious. That said, I'm sure many players can also move around comfortably and not be bothered by it one bit.

 

IMO, a manager should cater to those with superstitions, within reason, because having a player feeling comfortable and confident likely benefits the team more than tweaking the lineup according to splits, etc. OTOH, players also have to be willing to do what is in the best interest of the team.

 

It is Farrell's job to know his players well enough to know how to best set the line up.

 

I think only the very best players get upset when they are jerked around in a line-up. Look at the four to five guys I'm talking about.

 

1) Pablo lost his FT job last year. I'm not sure how upset he can feel, if he is playing FT but batting 6th vs RHPs and 8th vs LHPs. It's better than being platooned like he probably should be. In some ways, he should feel lucky to have the inside track on a FT job right now.

 

2) Moreland must be resigned to the fact that he's going to platoon this year, unless someone gets hurt.

 

3) Young has been platooned a lot in his career. I think he's comfortable moving around and spot starting.

 

4) Bogaerts is still young. He may improve on his splits to a point where we don't even think about it. In his short career, he's already batted in 5 different slots more than 170 PAs:

2nd 844 PAs (where I think he's best, at least until his power increases)

1st 494 PAs

7th 211 PAs

6th 189 PAs

8th 171 PAs

others 108 PAs

 

5) Beni is a rookie who is probably just happy playing FT. He's handled change very well over his short professional career.. He's changed levels 4 times in 2 years and switched from CF to LF. I doubt he'd be bothered by batting 1st vs RHPs and 6th or 7th vs LHPs.

 

[Wade Boggs]

I would be very surprised if Swihart wins the job out of spring training, barring injury to Leon or Vazquez. It would also be a very stupid decision, IMO.

 

It might no matter anyway. He is the only one that can be sent down ( Paw Sox) the other two can't. They may risk losing Leon or Vazquez. The only way Swihart makes it , if they carry three catchers.. Unlikely. Vazquez is a lock, he's in. A scout the other day says he's throwing well like he did before. He may have some of that arm strength back. It takes a good year for that type of injury recovering time.

[cp176]

If I had to bet, I would bet that many in upper level management truly expect that Swihart will be our number one eventually. Maybe sometime this year. I would be stunned though if he didn't go to Pawtucket for at least a little while. Have to find out whether he can actually get the jib done this time around behind the plate. No sense of urgency at all. We have two pretty good defensive catchers ahead of him at least for now. It won't hurt us at all to go with what we got for awhile. i also think that Leon deserves a chance to show which Leon we are going to have going forward also. If he hits coming out of the gate, then it is going to get interesting.

[Nick]

Question for Moon

 

Swihart has 1 year 133 days of service.....will a September call up keep him below 2 years service and give the Sox 5 more years beginning 2018?

 

Also for a catcher, will Swihart get better defensively playing all the time in the minors or can he get better with major league ball club with limited number of games behind the plate.

 

My question is can he get better on his off days at the major league level practicing?

 

Is catching minor league pitchers just as beneficial as major league pitchers? Can he get more instructions in a major league setting?

Edited March 12, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

It might no matter anyway. He is the only one that can be sent down ( Paw Sox) the other two can't. They may risk losing Leon or Vazquez. The only way Swihart makes it , if they carry three catchers.. Unlikely. Vazquez is a lock, he's in. A scout the other day says he's throwing well like he did before. He may have some of that arm strength back. It takes a good year for that type of injury recovering time.

 

There's other ways Swihart makes the 25 man roster:

 

1) We trade Vaz or Leon.

2) Swihart beats our Moreland for a starting line up slot. (HanRam back to 1B & Swihart DHs vs RHPs and catches vs LHPs.)

3) Vaz or Leon gets hurt or goes on the phantom DL.

[moonslav59]

Question for Moon

 

Swihart has 1 year 133 days of service.....will a September call up keep him below 2 years service and give the Sox 5 more years beginning 2018?

 

Nick, I'm not expert on years of service and years of team control determinations. I do think that if we can gain another year of team control for Swi, it would be a factor in the timing of a possible call-up. Persdnally, I think Vaz and Leon deserve to make the 25 man roster and then show they belong there. Swi is not the only one with something to prove.

 

Let all three play things out and see where the dust settles this year.

 

 

Also for a catcher, will Swihart get better defensively playing all the time in the minors or can he get better with major league ball club with limited number of games behind the plate.

 

My question is can he get better on his off days at the major league level practicing?

 

I think, yes, but I think playing everyday in AAA is a better way to improve.

 

I like Swihart alot and think he may play into a C/DH role by June or July.

 

Is catching minor league pitchers just as beneficial as major league pitchers? Can he get more instructions in a major league setting?

 

Playing more is the best practice, IMO.

[Kimmi]

Thank you. But for me I'm not basing it on spring results, m basing it on Leon's history except for that 2 month period last year. Do not think he can come close to that. Hope I'm wrong.

 

Leon will almost certainly not hit like he did during those two months, but I really think that he can be at least league average offensively for a catcher.

 

Though I think Swihart can get there with more reps, I am not confident that he is ready to be a starting catcher defensively.

[Kimmi]

I think only the very best players get upset when they are jerked around in a line-up. Look at the four to five guys I'm talking about.

 

1) Pablo lost his FT job last year. I'm not sure how upset he can feel, if he is playing FT but batting 6th vs RHPs and 8th vs LHPs. It's better than being platooned like he probably should be. In some ways, he should feel lucky to have the inside track on a FT job right now.

 

2) Moreland must be resigned to the fact that he's going to platoon this year, unless someone gets hurt.

 

3) Young has been platooned a lot in his career. I think he's comfortable moving around and spot starting.

 

4) Bogaerts is still young. He may improve on his splits to a point where we don't even think about it. In his short career, he's already batted in 5 different slots more than 170 PAs:

2nd 844 PAs (where I think he's best, at least until his power increases)

1st 494 PAs

7th 211 PAs

6th 189 PAs

8th 171 PAs

others 108 PAs

 

5) Beni is a rookie who is probably just happy playing FT. He's handled change very well over his short professional career.. He's changed levels 4 times in 2 years and switched from CF to LF. I doubt he'd be bothered by batting 1st vs RHPs and 6th or 7th vs LHPs.

 

 

I don't think it's so much that they'd be 'upset', but that they would prefer the consistency. Honestly, I don't think any of our guys would express unhappiness with being moved around. They would say that they'll do whatever Farrell thinks is best for the team and I think they would mean it. But I still believe that some would prefer the same spot.

 

I don't trust any manager to set the optimal line up, but I trust Farrell to know what his players are comfortable and confident with.

[Kimmi]

It might no matter anyway. He is the only one that can be sent down ( Paw Sox) the other two can't. They may risk losing Leon or Vazquez. The only way Swihart makes it , if they carry three catchers.. Unlikely. Vazquez is a lock, he's in. A scout the other day says he's throwing well like he did before. He may have some of that arm strength back. It takes a good year for that type of injury recovering time.

 

Completely agree Boggs. I would hate to lose either Vazquez or Leon without really getting a good feel for where any of our catchers are at this point.

[Kimmi]

If I had to bet, I would bet that many in upper level management truly expect that Swihart will be our number one eventually. Maybe sometime this year. I would be stunned though if he didn't go to Pawtucket for at least a little while. Have to find out whether he can actually get the jib done this time around behind the plate. No sense of urgency at all. We have two pretty good defensive catchers ahead of him at least for now. It won't hurt us at all to go with what we got for awhile. i also think that Leon deserves a chance to show which Leon we are going to have going forward also. If he hits coming out of the gate, then it is going to get interesting.

 

Completely agree with this also. I really hope that management does not try to move Swihart to another position again before he's had a real chance to show what he can do as a catcher.

[Emp9]

If I had to bet, I would bet that many in upper level management truly expect that Swihart will be our number one eventually. Maybe sometime this year. I would be stunned though if he didn't go to Pawtucket for at least a little while. Have to find out whether he can actually get the jib done this time around behind the plate. No sense of urgency at all. We have two pretty good defensive catchers ahead of him at least for now. It won't hurt us at all to go with what we got for awhile. i also think that Leon deserves a chance to show which Leon we are going to have going forward also. If he hits coming out of the gate, then it is going to get interesting.

 

Even if Leon continues to be streaky and say gets demoted to backup at some point down the road, having a backup catcher that could hit the cover off the ball at times can be a pretty nice thing. I tend to agree with you about Swihart, there's no huge rush as far as I'm concerned.

[moonslav59]

I don't think it's so much that they'd be 'upset', but that they would prefer the consistency. Honestly, I don't think any of our guys would express unhappiness with being moved around. They would say that they'll do whatever Farrell thinks is best for the team and I think they would mean it. But I still believe that some would prefer the same spot.

 

I don't trust any manager to set the optimal line up, but I trust Farrell to know what his players are comfortable and confident with.

 

I understand.

 

I think Beni would be happy to start in the 6 or 7 slot everyday, and he';d be happier still to be moved up to 1 or 2 vs righties only.

 

I'd prefer to bat 1 or 2 vs righties and 7th vs lefties than 6th everyday.

[FredLynn]

I obviously don't find it stupid, already Farrell mentioned his framing

with an adjustment has improved. Again I know it will hurt depth but do not like Leon's bat at all and not going to be hard to find a replacement level catcher available to stash in Pawtucket.

I believe Norris was designated for assignment by Washington yesterday.

 

I agree with you about Swihart possibly winning the job in spring training. Its possible, but not likely-and its not because he may well prove to be the best choice. I think he has options left, but Vasquez and Leon do not (I am sure someone here knows those numbers better than I). Therefore, if Swihart is on the 25 man roster to start the season, assuming we do not keep three catchers, one of Vasquez or Leon will leave the team. If I am wrong about this then Swihart should be on the roster and one of Vasquez or Leon should start in AAA ball. Problem is, if we lose one catcher, there is really no one else who could fill in. A lot of it depends on how well Moreland and Sandoval hit. If they aren't producing then we will need more offense from the catcher's position.

[moonslav59]

I agree with you about Swihart possibly winning the job in spring training. Its possible, but not likely-and its not because he may well prove to be the best choice. I think he has options left, but Vasquez and Leon do not (I am sure someone here knows those numbers better than I). Therefore, if Swihart is on the 25 man roster to start the season, assuming we do not keep three catchers, one of Vasquez or Leon will leave the team. If I am wrong about this then Swihart should be on the roster and one of Vasquez or Leon should start in AAA ball. Problem is, if we lose one catcher, there is really no one else who could fill in. A lot of it depends on how well Moreland and Sandoval hit. If they aren't producing then we will need more offense from the catcher's position.

 

Vaz and Leon are out of options, but Swihart has options.

 

I doubt we trade a catcher before opening day, unless someone makes us a very good offer. We need to let this play out, so we can have a better understanding of what we have. That only happens if we start Swi in AAA or go with 3 catchers but use Swi at DH from time ti time.

Edited March 13, 2017 by moonslav59

[Fisk]

Definitely not going with 3 catchers, if Swihart makes the team out of spring trainining it would be as the starting catcher. If the Sox deem his defense ready and don't have faith Leoncan come close to duplicating last years numbers, I can see them letting him go. I fully realize this could compromise there depth, but finding a defensive minded catcher who struggles to hit is not that hard. They can stash that catcher at Pawtucket.

[FredLynn]

Vaz and Leon are out of options, but Swihart has otpions.

 

I doubt we trade a catcher before opening dau, unless someone makes us a very good offer. We need to let this play out, so we can have a better understanding of what we have. That only happens if we start Swi in AAA or go with 3 catchers but use Swi at DH from time ti time.

 

"An Inconvenient Truth"....as the movie by the same name says. Unfortunately, there really is no option. Best choice it seems is to allow Leon to show us what he has with the bat. Vasquez, unfortunately, has already done that. His OPS last year was .585, which placed him 29th (of 36) among catchers with at least 100 ABs. Thats just not good enough. His career OPS of .602 is not much better. If Leon can hit at least as well as the average catcher by, say, July, and Vasquez keeps not hitting, and Swihart learns to be an average defensive catcher, its then time to get rid of Christian Vasquez. A lot of "ifs"....but it might be a realistic plan

[moonslav59]

"An Inconvenient Truth"....as the movie by the same name says. Unfortunately, there really is no option. Best choice it seems is to allow Leon to show us what he has with the bat. Vasquez, unfortunately, has already done that. His OPS last year was .585, which placed him 29th (of 36) among catchers with at least 100 ABs. Thats just not good enough. His career OPS of .602 is not much better. If Leon can hit at least as well as the average catcher by, say, July, and Vasquez keeps not hitting, and Swihart learns to be an average defensive catcher, its then time to get rid of Christian Vasquez. A lot of "ifs"....but it might be a realistic plan

 

I wouldn't give up on Vaz after 2-3 months of poor offense, assuming he starts slowly.

 

However, if Swihart is doing very well in AAA, we may have to make a choice. I might trade Leon.