A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[a700hitter]

My non-pitching roster roster would be:

 

Catchers;

 

Leon

Vasquez

Swihart (AAA)

 

Infield:

 

Hanley

Pedroia

Bogaerts

Pablo

Holt

Moreland

TBA (Hernandez, Travis, Ploufe)

 

Outfield

 

Bradley

Betts

Benitendi

Young

 

Edit: I see only 1 open pitching spot and 1 open bench spot.

Edited December 27, 2016 by a700hitter

[notin]

My non-pitching roster roster would be:

 

Catchers;

 

Leon

Vasquez

Swihart (AAA)

 

Infield:

 

Hanley

Pedroia

Bogaerts

Pablo

Holt

Moreland

TBA (Hernandez, Travis, Ploufe)

 

Outfield

 

Bradley

Betts

Benitendi

Young

 

Edit: I see only 1 open pitching spot and 1 open bench spot.

 

I don't think Travis has much of a chance at a bench spot.

 

I see the 4-man bench as Young (or Moreland), Vazquez, Holt and either Rutledge or Plouffe if the Sox actually sign him...

Edited December 27, 2016 by notin

[a700hitter]

I don't think Travis has much of a chance at a bench spot.

 

I see yhe 4-4man bench as Young, Vazquez, Holt and eeither Rutledge or Plugged....

Plugged?

[notin]

Plugged?

 

Yeah my auto correct sucks sometimes

[Kimmi]

So we can keep Abad?

 

I'd rather have Wright or Pom in the pen than have Abad remain on the roster. Our pen would be much stronger.

 

No, I'm not talking specifically about keeping Abad. I'm talking about keeping as many relief pitchers as possible and seeing who sticks.

[Kimmi]

To an extent, Run differential is exactly why I'm thinking Sox should be closer to 100 than 90. Runs Against in particular I expect improvement. Extent being that blow-out wins pad the overall offensive numbers that weren't necessary for the same result. Our offense doesn't need to score more on the year to be better. They just have to score more consistently from game to game. This could be the most balanced Red Sox team I've ever seen going in. I'm also not simply looking at our team, but the rest of the ALE. I'm going with a conservative 98 wins.

 

I like your optimism Emp.

 

According to our Pythagorean W-L last year, the Sox should have won 98 games, so I don't think 98 wins is unreasonable, at least on paper. I just think that 98 wins is difficult to reach no matter how good a team is, and our division always plays us tough. I would probably go more with 95-96 wins.

[notin]

No, I'm not talking specifically about keeping Abad. I'm talking about keeping as many relief pitchers as possible and seeing who sticks.

 

This is usually the exact strategy a lot teams employ...

[moonslav59]

No, I'm not talking specifically about keeping Abad. I'm talking about keeping as many relief pitchers as possible and seeing who sticks.

 

we can keep everyone we want by starting them in AAA, except one from Abad or Hembree, so to me it is just about Abad. Sending ERod to AAA would be a way to keep both Abad & Hembree. It's not worth it. Every one else has options remains so we're not saving their depth slot by sending anyone to AAA.

[Kimmi]

This is usually the exact strategy a lot teams employ...

 

Exactly, and it is usually the most successful strategy.

 

Relievers are so often up and down from one year to the next. You never know who is going to be the next diamond in the rough.

[Kimmi]

we can keep everyone we want by starting them in AAA, except one from Abad or Hembree, so to me it is just about Abad. Sending ERod to AAA would be a way to keep both Abad & Hembree. It's not worth it. Every one else has options remains so we're not saving their depth slot by sending anyone to AAA.

 

First, I'd like to see Dombrowski pick up another reliever (or two), which may or may not necessitate someone else starting in AAA.

 

Abad has very good numbers as a LOOGY, doesn't he? Not saying that he'll be anything special, but it's possible that he could help the team. It might not be worth it to send ERod down to keep Abad. Maybe we don't need a LOOGY in the pen. OTOH, if Pom and Wright are pitching as well as ERod is, what's the harm in having ERod in AAA for a month or two?

 

The benefits are that it allows the Sox to see what they have in their relievers, including Abad, before DFAing them, it gives the team more depth and flexibility, it allows ERod to manage his innings somewhat, which might be necessary after pitching in the WBC, and it gives us an awesome replacement pitcher when one of the other starters suffers an injury or underperforms.

 

I will state again that creating roster space is not as big an issue as it was before Buchholz and starting ERod in AAA likely won't happen, but it is most certainly worth consideration.

[Beantowne]

First, I'd like to see Dombrowski pick up another reliever (or two), which may or may not necessitate someone else starting in AAA.

 

Abad has very good numbers as a LOOGY, doesn't he? Not saying that he'll be anything special, but it's possible that he could help the team. It might not be worth it to send ERod down to keep Abad. Maybe we don't need a LOOGY in the pen. OTOH, if Pom and Wright are pitching as well as ERod is, what's the harm in having ERod in AAA for a month or two?

 

The benefits are that it allows the Sox to see what they have in their relievers, including Abad, before DFAing them, it gives the team more depth and flexibility, it allows ERod to manage his innings somewhat, which might be necessary after pitching in the WBC, and it gives us an awesome replacement pitcher when one of the other starters suffers an injury or underperforms.

 

I will state again that creating roster space is not as big an issue as it was before Buchholz and starting ERod in AAA likely won't happen, but it is most certainly worth consideration.

 

My take is the only reason to send Erod to AAA is if the Sox choose to keep Wright in the rotation and want Erod to pitch every 5 days. I don't see a scenario where they waste the kid by having him pitch out of the pen.

 

The bullpen will sort itself out between now and opening day and thereafter they can always acquire arms if a fatal flaw presents itself. As we saw with both the Cubs and Guardians last year, if you're willing to pay the price which Dombrowski has shown he's willing to do. Chances are he'll be aggressive and look to add the necessary pieces to address injury or underperformance...

Edited December 28, 2016 by Beantowne

[notin]

No, I'm not talking specifically about keeping Abad. I'm talking about keeping as many relief pitchers as possible and seeing who sticks.

 

Exactly.

 

I don't think this idea comes down to Rodriguez vs Abad or Rodriguez vs Hembree. There are plenty of bullpen improvements still available. The Sox could trade or release either or both of Abad or Hembree and sign a body or two from the set of Holland, Storen, Hochevar, Petit, Romo, or David Herandez and still have the same depth...

[moonslav59]

First, I'd like to see Dombrowski pick up another reliever (or two), which may or may not necessitate someone else starting in AAA.

 

Abad has very good numbers as a LOOGY, doesn't he? Not saying that he'll be anything special, but it's possible that he could help the team. It might not be worth it to send ERod down to keep Abad. Maybe we don't need a LOOGY in the pen. OTOH, if Pom and Wright are pitching as well as ERod is, what's the harm in having ERod in AAA for a month or two?

 

The benefits are that it allows the Sox to see what they have in their relievers, including Abad, before DFAing them, it gives the team more depth and flexibility, it allows ERod to manage his innings somewhat, which might be necessary after pitching in the WBC, and it gives us an awesome replacement pitcher when one of the other starters suffers an injury or underperforms.

 

I will state again that creating roster space is not as big an issue as it was before Buchholz and starting ERod in AAA likely won't happen, but it is most certainly worth consideration.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

We have plenty of pitchers who do very well vs LHPs, including RH'd Thornburg who has amazing reverse splits:

 

vs LHBs: .531

vs RHBs: .732

 

We could probably trade Abad for a decent RP'er with an option left...even more so with Hembree as he has 3 years of team control remaining.

 

I love having Wright or Pom in the pen. That's an addition that costs us no more money or prospects to trade for a pitcher of their caliber. To me, it's a waste to not use one of them in the pen. Sending ERod to AAA weakens the pen too much to offset any loss in depth we may encounter by having to trade Abad or HH. Plus, we can just create an injury and keep them on "rehab" to prolong any decision.

 

Again, we are talking about the current roster and assuming everyone is healthy, which probably won't happen, so all this debate would be about nothing.

 

We might trade for a pen arm, and then a debate could follow, but I really don't see sending down a healthy and productive ERod as a even a slight consideration for the small plus it might give us by allowing us to keep both ABad and Hembree on the team.

 

I respect your opinion, and maybe we view the word "consideration" in different ways, but I don't see it happening, unless we make a trade or signing and further crowd the pen.

 

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

I don't think this idea comes down to Rodriguez vs Abad or Rodriguez vs Hembree. There are plenty of bullpen improvements still available. The Sox could trade or release either or both of Abad or Hembree and sign a body or two from the set of Holland, Storen, Hochevar, Petit, Romo, or David Herandez and still have the same depth...

 

If we do acquire another RP'er, like I hope we do, maybe there would be a debate, but I still see Wright or Pom in the pen as a major addition that outweighs the added depth of one guy like Abad. We got Abad for Pat Light. That shows how easy it is to trade for some depth like Abad mid season.

 

What we lack in pen depth are pitchers with options remaining, preferably with ML experience. We have Workman and Scott and a bunch of guys like Noe Ramirez and Ysla, but we could use a couple more Scotts.

 

If we do sign a guy like Holland, I'd just trade Abad or Hembree or both, and still keep ERod in the rotation.

[Emp9]

I love having some wiggle room for when we're at the trade deadline. An injury cld happen. An upgrade cld be needed. Right now I cld foresee adding a RP. We'll see what shakes out and burn that bridge when we get to it.

[Emp9]

I like your optimism Emp.

 

According to our Pythagorean W-L last year, the Sox should have won 98 games, so I don't think 98 wins is unreasonable, at least on paper. I just think that 98 wins is difficult to reach no matter how good a team is, and our division always plays us tough. I would probably go more with 95-96 wins.

 

Not sure I'd call it optimism exactly. It's just where I see this team. We don't hit 98 wins... I might be concerned.

[moonslav59]

I love having some wiggle room for when we're at the trade deadline. An injury cld happen. An upgrade cld be needed. Right now I cld foresee adding a RP. We'll see what shakes out and burn that bridge when we get to it.

 

If we could trade Abad and save $2M, I think we could afford to add a RP'er making $4-6M and still have enough wiggle room to add a decent player at the deadline, as we'll only be on the hook for 1/3 of his salary at that point in the season. That means if we have $5M to spend at the deadline and still stay under the limit, we could acquire a player making about $15M on the season as a whole.

[moonslav59]

Ten bounce back pitchers still on the market:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/10-bounceback-pitcher-candidates-still-available-in-free-agency.html

 

[Kimmi]

My take is the only reason to send Erod to AAA is if the Sox choose to keep Wright in the rotation and want Erod to pitch every 5 days. I don't see a scenario where they waste the kid by having him pitch out of the pen.

 

The bullpen will sort itself out between now and opening day and thereafter they can always acquire arms if a fatal flaw presents itself. As we saw with both the Cubs and Guardians last year, if you're willing to pay the price which Dombrowski has shown he's willing to do. Chances are he'll be aggressive and look to add the necessary pieces to address injury or underperformance...

 

I agree that ERod will not pitch out of the pen. IMO, that is not a consideration.

 

I am confident that Dombrowski will add the pieces that we need during the season. Wouldn't it be a shame, though, if we end up paying a steep price for a reliever similar to one that we DFA'd earlier in the year because of roster constraints?

[Kimmi]

Exactly.

 

I don't think this idea comes down to Rodriguez vs Abad or Rodriguez vs Hembree. There are plenty of bullpen improvements still available. The Sox could trade or release either or both of Abad or Hembree and sign a body or two from the set of Holland, Storen, Hochevar, Petit, Romo, or David Herandez and still have the same depth...

 

There's still a long time before the season actually starts. Dombrowski may very well pick up another reliever or two. Injuries could (probably will) happen, and ERod has already retweaked his knee. Who knows if there will be any lasting effect of that?

 

The point, which you've already made, is that it seems kind of silly to set your rotation in December or to state so vehemently that ERod will not start the season in AAA.

[Kimmi]

Not sure I'd call it optimism exactly. It's just where I see this team. We don't hit 98 wins... I might be concerned.

 

I call it optimism, but I'm not saying that it's unrealistic optimism.

 

Either way, I think we have a very good team heading into the season and I think there's a lot of reason to be optimistic.

[S5Dewey]

If we could trade Abad and save $2M, I think we could afford to add a RP'er making $4-6M and still have enough wiggle room to add a decent player at the deadline, as we'll only be on the hook for 1/3 of his salary at that point in the season. That means if we have $5M to spend at the deadline and still stay under the limit, we could acquire a player making about $15M on the season as a whole.

 

IMO the LT priority might change if the team is in solid contention at the deadline. I can foresee a scenario where there's a need for a rental player at the deadline whose salary would put us over the cap. What I can't see is JH/DD passing on a player who might put the team over the top even if it meant slightly exceeding the LT ceiling. You strike while the iron is hot.

 

"Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It might rain tomorrow". - Leo Durocher

[moonslav59]

I call it optimism, but I'm not saying that it's unrealistic optimism.

 

Either way, I think we have a very good team heading into the season and I think there's a lot of reason to be optimistic.

 

I think 98 wins is pretty accurate. It would probably have been 103 had Papi not retired.

[S5Dewey]

 

I think 98 wins is pretty accurate. It would probably have been 103 had Papi not retired.

 

I'd want to know what the rest of the division is expected to do before making any predictions like that. If the AL East remains one of the toughest divisions in baseball 103 there could be equal to 110 in, say, the NL East.

 

Afterthought.. in looking this up I noticed that the AL East is the only division in which four teams had records better than .500. Wow.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox have had a lot of excellent teams since 1946, including 6 pennant winners, but not one of them has won 100 games. That's just one of the reasons I like to be conservative with the pre-season win projections.

[Nick]

IMO the LT priority might change if the team is in solid contention at the deadline. I can foresee a scenario where there's a need for a rental player at the deadline whose salary would put us over the cap. What I can't see is JH/DD passing on a player who might put the team over the top even if it meant slightly exceeding the LT ceiling. You strike while the iron is hot.

 

"Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It might rain tomorrow". - Leo Durocher

 

I don't think the issue is the dollar amount subject to tax THIS YEAR. The issue is resetting the penalty rate for Sox. What you don't want is 50% penalty for 2018 season.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Nick

[S5Dewey]

I don't think the issue is the dollar amount subject to tax THIS YEAR. The issue is resetting the penalty rate for Sox. What you don't want is 50% penalty for 2018 season.

 

I understand that and I agree. But it's still MO that if they're in a strong position and need to pick up one more player who "puts them over" they'll do what they have to do and worry about the LT next year. There's a lot of money to be made in winning the WS, or even going deep into the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

I'd want to know what the rest of the division is expected to do before making any predictions like that. If the AL East remains one of the toughest divisions in baseball 103 there could be equal to 110 in, say, the NL East.

 

Afterthought.. in looking this up I noticed that the AL East is the only division in which four teams had records better than .500. Wow.

 

I'm basing my projections on where teams stand right now.

 

I do think the al east will be the best again in 2017 but not like 2016.

[moonslav59]

I understand that and I agree. But it's still MO that if they're in a strong position and need to pick up one more player who "puts them over" they'll do what they have to do and worry about the LT next year. There's a lot of money to be made in winning the WS, or even going deep into the playoffs.

 

We should be able to acquire some top talent at the deadline, if needed, and we can still stay below the limit.

 

Resetting the tax this year makes too much sense to give up on. We will be able to extend our stars and or sign stars in a plentiful market next winter and beyond.

[Bellhorn04]

We should be able to acquire some top talent at the deadline, if needed, and we can still stay below the limit.

 

Resetting the tax this year makes too much sense to give up on. We will be able to extend our stars and or sign stars in a plentiful market next winter and beyond.

 

Just because we reset the rate for 2018 doesn't mean we'll be able to spend like drunken sailors though, right? The penalties will still be a deterrent to exceeding the threshold by a significant amount - plus if you sign some big contracts it'll be hard to get back under again.