A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Hugh2]

Last years draft was all about Groome, the other high ceiling picks didn't sign.

 

Dalbec had a nice start and I hope he turns into a diamond in the rough. This is a guy who struck out 32% of the time in college, he's got a TON of swing and miss in his swing and had a good year against lesser competition in Lowell.

 

Word on the street was the Sox liked him better as a pitcher but he really wanted to play 3rd base. It's a lot easier to switch to pitching from hitting than the other way around so why not let him hit and see what he can do.

 

I'm not trying to take anything away from him. And I'm hoping he proves people wrong but I'd take his first season with a huge grain of salt. Guys who hit for power but have a big hole in their swing in the lower minors have 100 times more ways to fail than to succeed on their way to the majors.

 

The guys I really wanted after Groome were Nick Quintana, and Jeff Belge. After Groome, we probably have a future reliever or two and thats it. Chatham could develop but he's probably more likely a utility role.

 

In hindsight, a lot of the high upside picks like Quintana were guys they had no chance in signing but would make a run at with some more money if Groome failed to sign. the 2015 draft is really a one man show.

 

I trust your analysis of young prospects more than my own.

 

I'm hopeful that one or two from Dalbec, Chatham, Shawaryn and Nogosek move up more than expected.

 

What are your thoughts on 17 year old Bryan Mata (not a draft pick but still a recent international signing)?

 

 

I asked a question about this on the Soxprospects forum. They deduced that Mata was very likely the guy the Red Sox turned down in the Sale trade. Here is a response I got from Chris Hatfield:

 

"So, a) His scouting report has been updated. Ian saw him at Instructs and came back very impressed. He put him in his top 30 right away and convinced us to push him up past where he sat after we all voted. Then, after the trades, Dave Dombrowski was on WEEI talking about them and the process. He referred to a player in the process that another team asked for who was 1. Venezuelan, 2. had played in the DSL, and 3. had pitched at Fall Instructs, and the Red Sox had refused to trade him. Presuming that these were the negotiations for either the Thornburg or Sale trade, that means that they at least liked this player more than Victor Diaz (21 before the trade) or Josh Pennington (27 before the trade). The only two players who fit the description Dombrowski gave were Mata and Ritzi Mendoza. Now, Mendoza also had a very good year in the DSL... but he was 21 and repeating the league for the fourth time. So there's a 99% chance they refused to include Mata in a deal in which they did trade a player we had ranked higher.

 

Between Ian's report on him (which I'll let you all read), the numbers and other reports we've read, and the Dombrowski thing, it seemed pretty clear we had to move him into the Top 20."

 

It seems to me very little is still known from him but he had good numbers in the DSL, he impressed at fall instructs, and we can deduce from the Sox front office that they really really like him.

[Emp9]

I was gonna say, I wouldn't worry about 2 RHH in a row, 3 is a bit much though, but Moon beat me to it. I think Beni is our best LHH ( followed by JBJ ), even without much of a sample size. His minor league numbers and the sss last season leads me to think he'll prove me right. Could we see someday Beni batting 3rd and Betts batting 4th? Maybe not in '17. Either way, I think we see Beni leadoff or bat 2nd this coming season. I'm still hoping XB develops a bit more power, if he doesn't I could even see XB leadoff. Good thing is we definitely have a bunch of leadoff candidates.

[moonslav59]

I asked a question about this on the Soxprospects forum. They deduced that Mata was very likely the guy the Red Sox turned down in the Sale trade. Here is a response I got from Chris Hatfield:

 

"So, a) His scouting report has been updated. Ian saw him at Instructs and came back very impressed. He put him in his top 30 right away and convinced us to push him up past where he sat after we all voted. Then, after the trades, Dave Dombrowski was on WEEI talking about them and the process. He referred to a player in the process that another team asked for who was 1. Venezuelan, 2. had played in the DSL, and 3. had pitched at Fall Instructs, and the Red Sox had refused to trade him. Presuming that these were the negotiations for either the Thornburg or Sale trade, that means that they at least liked this player more than Victor Diaz (21 before the trade) or Josh Pennington (27 before the trade). The only two players who fit the description Dombrowski gave were Mata and Ritzi Mendoza. Now, Mendoza also had a very good year in the DSL... but he was 21 and repeating the league for the fourth time. So there's a 99% chance they refused to include Mata in a deal in which they did trade a player we had ranked higher.

 

Between Ian's report on him (which I'll let you all read), the numbers and other reports we've read, and the Dombrowski thing, it seemed pretty clear we had to move him into the Top 20."

 

It seems to me very little is still known from him but he had good numbers in the DSL, he impressed at fall instructs, and we can deduce from the Sox front office that they really really like him.

 

Thanks, Hugh.

 

As always, very informative stuff.

 

I realize he's a far away prospect, and some posters put little value on them, but we do.

[sk7326]

17 year old with a good strikeout rate is intriguing - too young to go to the AFL anyway. An 18 year old possibly in a full season league becomes a very interesting prospect.

[Spudboy]

Buttery hell sounds delicious though.

 

lulz. It does.

[moonslav59]

17 year old with a good strikeout rate is intriguing - too young to go to the AFL anyway. An 18 year old possibly in a full season league becomes a very interesting prospect.

 

So, our high ceiling farm now looks like this:

Age

17: Mata

18: Groome & Raudes

19:

20: Devers

21:

 

Possibles:

17:

18:

19: Y Aybar

20: D Herndnaez, Tyler Hill

21: Dalbec, Chatham, Ockimey, Bautista, Nogosek, K Washington

22: Lakins, Cosart

23: Travis

24: Hernandez, Ysla

25: Martin

26: Johnson, R Scott

 

Long shots: TBall 22, Chavis 21, Shepherd 24

 

[sk7326]

They traded a ton of upside - but got a lot out of it (Pomeranz deal aside). The question has always been whether this front office can keep the coffers full. I was hoping Buchholz could yield at least a low-probability high upside sort of dude.

[a700hitter]

Buttery hell sounds delicious though.

There should be a cocktail with that name.

[moonslav59]

They traded a ton of upside - but got a lot out of it (Pomeranz deal aside). The question has always been whether this front office can keep the coffers full. I was hoping Buchholz could yield at least a low-probability high upside sort of dude.

 

I was too, but $13.5M is a lot of money.

 

In theory, since the trade deadline is 2/3 through the season, we could trade for two players making $18M annually each and the cost would be $12M total.

[sk7326]

There should be a cocktail with that name.

 

What would it be? A good rum and ...

[moonslav59]

What would it be? A good rum and ...

 

Maybe butterscotch schnapps and Bacardi 151?

[a700hitter]

Maybe butterscotch schnapps and Bacardi 151?

I am sold. We should trademark it and share the royalties.

[Bellhorn04]

And you have to drink it bubbling hot for full hellish effect.

[Dojji]

Well now hold on...... the full expression is "holy flaming buttery hell."

[Spudboy]

Maybe butterscotch schnapps and Bacardi 151?

 

Good call Moon.

 

I invented a drink once.

 

I called it a "Stalingrad Stinger".

 

Stoli Vanil with Mountain Dew Code Red.

 

Like drinking a cherry Popsicle!

[cp176]

And very few things will turn someone into a fat slob any faster than eggnog.

 

yes and if he is drinking the egg nog that I think he is drinking, he is going to smell bad for a week as well.

[Kimmi]

Why the holy flaming buttery hell does that count against you as a baserunner? Makes no sense. Baserunning is about what you do once on, the mad scramble for first base after you've put the ball on the ground has zero to do with skill and even less to do with baserunning.

 

I don't believe hitting into a DP counts against your baserunning stat, but the ability or inability to stay out of the force or DP at 2nd base does.

 

Incidentally, Pedroia's GDP runs is a -2.7. A score of -2.5 is considered awful.

[moonslav59]

I am sold. We should trademark it and share the royalties.

 

I think it would sell, and with a name like that, how can we lose?

[moonslav59]

Good call Moon.

 

I invented a drink once.

 

I called it a "Stalingrad Stinger".

 

Stoli Vanil with Mountain Dew Code Red.

 

Like drinking a cherry Popsicle!

 

What about Stoli (My fave, but I admit I am a novice compared to you) Vanil & Fanta Orange for an orange creamsicle.

[Spudboy]

What about Stoli (My fave, but I admit I am a novice compared to you) Vanil & Fanta Orange for an orange creamsicle.

 

I've done this with orange juice.

 

Good idea.

 

By the way, Stoli can be one of the best Vodkas that you can purchase. It is produced in three distilleries.

 

You never know which one you will be getting but the ones made in the Moscow Kristall Distillery is the one to drink!

 

If you ever see a vodka called "Staraya Moscva" BUY IT!

 

Made in Kristall it is what I used to call the best $14. bottle of vodka available.

[Jack Flap]

Come for the baseball discussion, stay for the vodka recommendations. I love it.

[moonslav59]

I've done this with orange juice.

 

Good idea.

 

By the way, Stoli can be one of the best Vodkas that you can purchase. It is produced in three distilleries.

 

You never know which one you will be getting but the ones made in the Moscow Kristall Distillery is the one to drink!

 

If you ever see a vodka called "Staraya Moscva" BUY IT!

 

Made in Kristall it is what I used to call the best $14. bottle of vodka available.

 

Vodka is the only drink I can still alcoholic drink without a slight gag reflex... long story.

[Spudboy]

Vodka is the only drink I can still alcoholic drink without a slight gag reflex... long story.

 

Lol.

 

I think all of use has one of those stories!

 

Mine involves Zombies and a toilet.

[moonslav59]

Some roster issues related to players out of options:

 

Catcher: Since both Vaz and Leon are out of options, calling up Swihart would mean...

1) We go with 3 catchers (Swi could DH or play LF)

2) Vaz or Leon go on the DL.

3) We trade Vaz or Leon.

 

Starting Pitchers: with Buch no longer on the depth chart and Johnson/Owens having questionable skills, is keeping Roenis Elias on the 25 man roster a stronger consideration? He's out of options and may be our best SP'er option beyond the 6th starter (ERod, Pom or Wright). Pom & Wright have no options as well. ERod has 2, but I feel he's the best of this group. We could park Elias in the pen, so we could keep him around, but then we may squeeze out a RP'er without options as well (see below). The other alternative, assuming the other 6 starters are healthy would be to create a phantom DH scenario for Elias or a Rper or two.

 

Relief Pitchers: Carson Smith may not return until June or July, so that will put off one decision until later this season. Kimbrel, Thornburg and Kelly seem like sure bets, barring injury, but Kelly has been inconsistent and he has an option left . I think Ross is close to a lock as well, but he has one option. Barnes probably looks like he heads the list of bubble players, but he has 2 options remaining, unlike others. Here's how I order then by skill level (assuming a 7 man pen):

 

Kimbrel 0

Thornburg 0

Wright 0 or Pom 0 (Erod 2)

 

Kelly 1

Ross 1

 

Barnes 2

Hembree 0

Elias 0 (see SP'er above)

Abad 0

Scott 3

Workman 2

Martin 3

N Ramirez 1

Ysla 3

Jerez 2

Olmos 0

 

OF: Bryce Brentz is out of options. I see no way he makes the 25 man roster without an injury or two to our OF. No real competition here.

 

[a700hitter]

I've done this with orange juice.

 

Good idea.

 

By the way, Stoli can be one of the best Vodkas that you can purchase. It is produced in three distilleries.

 

You never know which one you will be getting but the ones made in the Moscow Kristall Distillery is the one to drink!

 

If you ever see a vodka called "Staraya Moscva" BUY IT!

 

Made in Kristall it is what I used to call the best $14. bottle of vodka available.

I took a blind taste test of vodkas a few years ago at my local liquor store. I was certain that I could ID Grey Goose, my vodka of choice. It was tested with Ketel One, Stoli and Absolut. I was certain that I made the right pick. Wrong. I picked the Absolut. That saved me some money as that is now my House Vodka.

[a700hitter]

Earlier today, I listened to John Farrell on the "Whatever It Takes" podcast from 12/16. He was asked if he thought that there was still a possibility that we will add another bat. Farrell had a long pause and then said that there probably would have to be some other moves before that could happen. He said that he thought something could happen as some of the FA hitters found landing spots if we could upgrade. He then went onto say that he didn't think there was a big chance that we would add a big middle of the order bat.

 

Buch is looking to me like the move that had to be made to add a bat.

[moonslav59]

Lol.

 

I think all of use has one of those stories!

 

Mine involves Zombies and a toilet.

 

Mine involves lots of stories involving lots of toilets and trash cans.

[moonslav59]

Earlier today, I listened to John Farrell on the "Whatever It Takes" podcast from 12/16. He was asked if he thought that there was still a possibility that we will add another bat. Farrell had a long pause and then said that there probably would have to be some other moves before that could happen. He said that he thought something could happen as some of the FA hitters found landing spots if we could upgrade. He then went onto say that he didn't think there was a big chance that we would add a big middle of the order bat.

 

Buch is looking to me like the move that had to be made to add a bat.

 

If it's Moreland's $5.5M that keeps us from signing one of these "left out" sluggers (EE, Bautista or Trumbo), there's going to have to be some "splaining" to be done!

[a700hitter]

If it's Moreland's $5.5M that keeps us from signing one of these "left out" sluggers (EE, Bautista or Trumbo), there's going to have to be some "splaining" to be done!

I am still hopeful that it gets done. If DD wants the guy, he will get him. He always seems to get his man.

[moonslav59]

I am still hopeful that it gets done. If DD wants the guy, he will get him. He always seems to get his man.

 

I know they've said resetting the luxury tax is just a priority not a necessity, so I do think it could happen, if DD really wants the guy, but I have to think they saw the Buch trade and $13.5M freed up coming when they signed Moreland.

 

I still think the Moreland signing shows DD has not been interested in EE enough think of him as a serious option.

 

Maybe, he didn't foresee his contract numbers and years demanded falling, if indeed they are falling, so a re-evaluation could be happening, but I doubt it.

 

Next year's FA market is loaded, and resetting the luxury tax will allow us to sign a younger star, if going over the limit is something we are now comfortable doing..