A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Spudboy]

When Young is spelling one of our OFers against a LHP, we have Pablo and Moreland in the lineup? Not liking that.

 

You old fool. The Sox went out and got so much new WAR Ortiz will not be missed.

 

How many times do I have to tell you this?

[a700hitter]

You old fool. The Sox went out and got so much new WAR Ortiz will not be missed.

 

How many times do I have to tell you this?

I keep forgetting WAR! Ugh!

[Bellhorn04]

There always has to be some rain on the parade.

 

[Wade Boggs]

Who is our DH against LHP?

Young. Beni will get 500AB's if healthy. Ramirez will play 1B

[moonslav59]

When Young is spelling one of our OFers against a LHP, we have Pablo and Moreland in the lineup? Not liking that.

 

Young doesn't affect Pablo. Hernandez and Holt might.

 

When Young is in the OF, we'll have to either settle on Moreland or someone else at DH/1B.

[a700hitter]

Young doesn't affect Pablo. Hernandez and Holt might.

 

When Young is in the OF, we'll have to either settle on Moreland or someone else at DH/1B.

Hernandez and Holt are both Lefties, so I still don't lie the lineup versus lefties.

[moonslav59]

Hernandez and Holt are both Lefties, so I still don't lie the lineup versus lefties.

 

1) Both Holt and Hernandez hit lefties (barely) better than righties. They are both just barely over .700, but that's way better than what Pablo has done ve lefties. Believe me, I'm not happy with our 3B situation.

 

2) Young can't play 3B, so there's no connection between Young and Pablo at 3B.

[a700hitter]

1) Both Holt and Hernandez hit lefties (barely) better than righties. They are both just barely over .700, but that's way better than what Pablo has done ve lefties. Believe me, I'm not happy with our 3B situation.

 

2) Young can't play 3B, so there's no connection between Young and Pablo at 3B.

I am not happy about 3B or DH against lefties.

[notin]

Young doesn't affect Pablo. Hernandez and Holt might.

 

When Young is in the OF, we'll have to either settle on Moreland or someone else at DH/1B.

 

3b will be either a lefty bat (Sandoval, Holt, Hernandez) or a non-bat (Marrero, if he actually makes the team). I'm hoping Benintendi plays against everyone and Young only spells Moreland...

[moonslav59]

A provocative Instagram post from David Ortiz following news of the trade of Chris Sale to Boston yesterday had some Red Sox fans wondering if their team planned to talk the retired slugger into returning for 2017. But the team has no such plans, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes.

 

“My boy Sale to Btown? You guys got me thinking,” Ortiz wrote on Instagram yesterday.

 

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says he thinks Ortiz was joking, and adds that the team will not initiate talks designed to lead to his return. “I wouldn’t want to reach out to him,” says Dombrowski. “I know David well enough — and I know that if he really had sincere interest, that he would call.”

 

MacPherson notes that, regardless of Ortiz’s intentions, he cannot come off the voluntary retired list for the first 60 days of the season. It’s easy to see why Red Sox fans would have interest in his return, however — the Red Sox have had a high-profile offseason without making a high-profile acquisition to fill Ortiz’s spot in the lineup (although they did add Mitch Moreland earlier this week). Ortiz departed last season at the top of his game, having batted .315/.401/.620 while leading the AL or tying for the AL lead in doubles, RBIs, slugging percentage and OPS in 2016.

[moonslav59]

3b will be either a lefty bat (Sandoval, Holt, Hernandez) or a non-bat (Marrero, if he actually makes the team). I'm hoping Benintendi plays against everyone and Young only spells Moreland...

 

As much as it makes sense to rest Beni and JBJ vs LHPs, you might be right. Playing Moreland vs a LHP is probably worse.

 

[notin]

As much as it makes sense to rest Beni and JBJ vs LHPs, you might be right. Playing Moreland vs a LHP is probably worse.

 

 

It really doesn't make sense to rest either vs LHP.

 

Bradley may never hit LHP all that well, but still contributes with excellent defense. Benintendi doesn't have so much of s history against LHP that we need to worry about him just yet...

[moonslav59]

It really doesn't make sense to rest either vs LHP.

 

Bradley may never hit LHP all that well, but still contributes with excellent defense. Benintendi doesn't have so much of s history against LHP that we need to worry about him just yet...

 

I meant the 2-4 games of rest they get over a full season. It might as well come vs LHPs.

 

We faced 34 LH'd starters lthis year, so if JBJ and Beni each sit 3 games all year, that's 6 out of 34 where Young might play in the OF not at DH. That's 18% of the platoon for Young.

 

One way to get more PAs for Young is to play him vs some selected righties, either in the OF or possibly at DH, at least when HanRam is resting or injured.

[Nick]

Can Ortiz be that guy that just plays for couple of months? Start working out after the all start break and return in August for the playoff run. How hard can that be?

[Spudboy]

That is a dumb idea that will not happen.

 

Time to move on.

[southpaw777]

I do not think Henry is willing to spend, spend, spend to no end.

 

He probably really hates paying a hefty tax (up to 50% plus 12% for anything over $20M and under $40M) on every dollar going over the limit PLUS, now we lose revenue sharing by going over. The extra cost and loss of revenue could be enormous.

 

For example, let's say we do or we don't reset this year, and next season's free agent class comes around- a much nicer one, I might add- and we decide we need a couple big named players that puts us over the limit by $40M.

 

Example A (where we reset this year): we pay a 20% tax. That's $8M total.

 

Example B (where we stayed over this year and are now at year 4: we pay a 50% tax of $20M plus a 12% tax on $20M ($2.4M) for a total of $22.4M.

 

It's easy to explain away a $14.4M differential as pocket change for a guy like Henry, but $14.4M to any budget that is not limitless could bring us a very very nice free agent.

 

I'm not sure how to compute the loss of revenue sharing, so there's that to add to the picture as well.

 

I do not see us becoming the Dodgers of the East or the Yankees of the past.

 

Im guessing he likes the tens of millions that come with making the WS and even more if they win. Then he can use that extra $$ to pay said taxes....he wont go crazy, hes not stupid. But im sure he wont hesitate to go over a little if it makes sense.

Cleveland got an extra 48m for being in the WS

[southpaw777]

I don't see Moreland playing against lefties. We will already have one blackhole against lefties in Pablo at 3B. Not a good plan.

 

Young

[southpaw777]

As much as it makes sense to rest Beni and JBJ vs LHPs, you might be right. Playing Moreland vs a LHP is probably worse.

 

 

It makes zero sense with Beni since he can hit both R and LHP. JBJ struggles more with LHP.

[cp176]

I keep forgetting WAR! Ugh!

 

What did I miss? Who is going to war? What about all that other stuff with the letters we added?

obip

pis

wol

bhip

don't forget the whoop ass in a can either.

plus don't forget all those other abbreviations that mean so much to true talent evaluators.

[cp176]

Seriously now - the problem that wasn't that so many people thought was now is. Third base - Holt and Hernandez are not third basemen. They very well might get it down for a game or two at a time but they aren't solutions for a season in any way at third base. We better keep banging the Sandoval drum and hope for the best. Lets go Devers! I think taking Ortiz out of this lineup will hurt the offense more than we know.

[moonslav59]

Im guessing he likes the tens of millions that come with making the WS and even more if they win. Then he can use that extra $$ to pay said taxes....he wont go crazy, hes not stupid. But im sure he wont hesitate to go over a little if it makes sense.

Cleveland got an extra 48m for being in the WS

 

I'm sure he weighs the costs and revenues against each other in multiple scenarios. Surely, winning not only brings in more money, but it also helps his pride and sense of well-being.

 

Henry has already shown he's willing to pay some taxes, but with the loss of revenue sharing may give him added incentive to stay under, especially if we are very close, as we usually are. Henry paid a 100% tax on the $30M he paid for Moncada, then agreed to have him traded away. The most luxury tax we ever paid was $6M in 2007. We maid $3.4M in 2011, but those two times are the only times we paid over $2M in luxury tax since 2005, and those were all before loss of revenue sharing took effect.

 

My feeling is this, if Henry is thinking that resetting the tax from 50% to 20% is meaningful, and making some money from revenue sharing adds more incentive to reset, it seems like resetting this year makes more sense than next year. I'm not an accountant, and I'm not in on the inner workings of Sox finances, but on the surface, trading Buch for a more reliable pitcher helps us by getting under the limit, making money off revenue sharing, and allowing us to spend big in next winters higher quality FA market, I'm all for it.

[moonslav59]

It makes zero sense with Beni since he can hit both R and LHP. JBJ struggles more with LHP.

 

Zero sense?

 

Beni hits RHPs better than LHPs.

 

We're not going to rest JBJ and Beni on the same day, so it's very easy to schedule Young to give both Beni and JBJ their normal rest days vs LHPs. With Betts, it doesn't matter as much. I'd rather have Betts "rested" vs RHPs, so maybe that's when Holt can get in a game or two in the OF, or we just play Young vs a few righties.

[a700hitter]

What did I miss? Who is going to war? What about all that other stuff with the letters we added?

obip

pis

wol

bhip

don't forget the whoop ass in a can either.

plus don't forget all those other abbreviations that mean so much to true talent evaluators.

LOL! Whoop ass in a can.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox lose Justin Haley and Aneury Tavarez to the rule 5 draft and take back Josh Rutledge from the Rockies.

 

Josh could just be insurance against Pablo at 3B, and/or he could beat out Hernandez for the utility slot on the 25 man roster. That would force Holt to be the primary back-up at SS.

[Emp9]

What did I miss? Who is going to war? What about all that other stuff with the letters we added?

obip

pis

wol

bhip

don't forget the whoop ass in a can either.

plus don't forget all those other abbreviations that mean so much to true talent evaluators.

 

Well see, CWA+ (Opened Can of Woop Ass) has much more meaning than the old CWA (non-opened). It takes into other considerations like park factor, sea level, and whether there's a line of dirt from the pitcher's mound to home plate or if it's all just grass. [sighs..] f*** man, keep up.

[Emp9]

Not funny? geez, tough crowd:D

[a700hitter]

Some people are Just humorless

[Jack Flap]

Well see, CWA+ (Opened Can of Woop Ass) has much more meaning than the old CWA (non-opened). It takes into other considerations like park factor, sea level, and whether there's a line of dirt from the pitcher's mound to home plate or if it's all just grass. [sighs..] f*** man, keep up.

 

I just saw this and it did bring a smile to my face. lol.

[Bellhorn04]

Not funny? geez, tough crowd:D

 

I liked it.

[Spudboy]

I liked it too.