A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[oldtimer]

We've traded a lot of youth, but Papi, Uehara, Ziegler, Hill and Tazawa are gone. That makes us younger right off the top.

 

Ages under team control

28-30 Sale

31-32 or 36 Price (opt out)

28-30 Porcello

24-28 ERod

28-30 Pomeranz

32- 35Wright

32 Buchholz

(Owens, Johnson, Groome)

 

29-30 Kimbrel

28-30 Thornburg

27-30 C Smith

29- 30 J Kelly

28- 29 R Ross

27- 31 Barnes

(Elias, Abad, Hembree, Scott)

 

28-31 Leon

26-29 Vazquez

25- 29 Swihart

 

33-34 or 35 Ramirez

31 Moreland

(Sam Tavis/Ockimey)

 

33-38 Pedroia

29-31 Holt

 

24-26 Bogaerts

24-29 Hernandez

(Chatham)

 

30-32 or 33 Sandoval

(Rafael Devers/Bobby Dalbec)

 

22-27 Benintendi

33 C Young

 

27-30 Bradley

 

24-27 Betts

 

Not only d we have a roster with just about nobody past prime- hardly anyone is under team control beyond age 31 or 32!

 

I'm concerned about losing a lot of prospects, but it's not like we have a bunch of 34-37 year old players with 1-2 years left on their contracts.

 

 

One thing pretty noticeable is our starting pitching lineup includes 4 lefties at Fenway, which is not known to be friendly to lefties. Just a consideration of our SPing.

[Jack Flap]

Money really isn't much good if you don't use it. Whatever floats your boat I guess but that is a fact. Many of the most wealthy people on the planet had the nuts to go out on many limbs taking many chances. John Henry is a very fortunate businessman for sure to have so many people worrying for him with respect to how much money he has and how much he can spend. Most of us have to face the tax man for sure. I honestly believe that we have people here on talksox who are more concerned with our beloved Red Sox payroll than our owner is.

 

Well, we have to be concerned with it because the team's ability/willingness to spend is finite and the luxury tax threshold is something they pay attention to...like it or not, but that is just a fact. Giving a big contract to Player A means you have less of the pie to allocate for Players B, C, and D that you may also want down the line. It will be interesting to see what people say if we're not able to keep all of the B's or enter the bidding for someone like Otani in a year or two because of some of the other contracts we have on the books.

[moonslav59]

Besides, at the end of the day it is all about the money. JH didn't get rich by being an idiot. I'm confident that there are bean counters on Yawkey way who know how much more money they make with each progression into the playoffs and if they can spend $4.6M to make $8M they're going to do it.

 

Not to mention other profits that come from winning: TV revenue, concessions money, Sox gear...

[moonslav59]

I'm more concerned about what's going to happen in July of '17 than I am right now in terms of salary vs. LT. If the Sox are in the race as deeply as it seems they will be, come July they're going to be looking for one more player to push them over the top. When that happens the money that player earns is going to go toward our LT so it would be nice to have a bit of a cushion going into the season.

 

I've been a big proponent of Clay but he's the obvious choice to give us that cushion. Sometimes we have to make choices we don't want to make and that would be one of them for me.

 

I've probably been Buch's biggest defender over the last few years, but I have to think clearing cap space by trading him would set us up nicely for making a serious acquisition at the deadline (or before).

[moonslav59]

One thing pretty noticeable is our starting pitching lineup includes 4 lefties at Fenway, which is not known to be friendly to lefties. Just a consideration of our SPing.

 

I'm not worried. All of our lefty starters are great at getting righties out. Sometimes, Fenway can help a crafty lefty as hitters keep trying to pull everything- and the pitcher knows it.

[Bellhorn04]

Resetting the luxury tax will "come in handy" for years to come.

 

Please explain exactly why resetting the tax rate this year will benefit us for 'years to come'.

[moonslav59]

Please explain exactly why resetting the tax rate this year will benefit us for 'years to come'.

 

I do not think Henry is willing to spend, spend, spend to no end.

 

He probably really hates paying a hefty tax (up to 50% plus 12% for anything over $20M and under $40M) on every dollar going over the limit PLUS, now we lose revenue sharing by going over. The extra cost and loss of revenue could be enormous.

 

For example, let's say we do or we don't reset this year, and next season's free agent class comes around- a much nicer one, I might add- and we decide we need a couple big named players that puts us over the limit by $40M.

 

Example A (where we reset this year): we pay a 20% tax. That's $8M total.

 

Example B (where we stayed over this year and are now at year 4: we pay a 50% tax of $20M plus a 12% tax on $20M ($2.4M) for a total of $22.4M.

 

It's easy to explain away a $14.4M differential as pocket change for a guy like Henry, but $14.4M to any budget that is not limitless could bring us a very very nice free agent.

 

I'm not sure how to compute the loss of revenue sharing, so there's that to add to the picture as well.

 

I do not see us becoming the Dodgers of the East or the Yankees of the past.

[moonslav59]

I'm reposting this, because it really blows me away. The lack of hardly anyone signed beyond their prime years is amazing!

 

I bolded any years over 32.

 

Ages under team control

28-30 Sale

31-32 or 36 Price (opt out)> 33, 34, 35, 36

28-30 Porcello

24-28 ERod

28-30 Pomeranz

32- 35 Wright 33, 34, 35

32 Buchholz

(Owens, Johnson, Groome)

 

29-30 Kimbrel

28-30 Thornburg

27-30 C Smith

29- 30 J Kelly

28- 29 R Ross

27- 31 Barnes

(Elias, Abad, Hembree, Scott)

 

28-31 Leon

26-29 Vazquez

25- 29 Swihart

 

33-34 or 35 Ramirez 33, 34 & maybe 35

31 Moreland

(Sam Tavis/Ockimey)

 

33-38 Pedroia

29-31 Holt

 

24-26 Bogaerts

24-29 Hernandez

(Chatham)

 

30-32 or 33 Sandoval-option

(Rafael Devers/Bobby Dalbec)

 

22-27 Benintendi

33 C Young

 

27-30 Bradley

 

24-27 Betts

 

When you look at the few we have, none are for beyond 38, and only Pedey is beyond 36. If price opts out, only Wright and HanRam could go to age 35 depending on options and arb choices.

 

I know it sucks losing so many prospects, but it's not like this is an old team with high need openings coming up in the next year or two.

[Bellhorn04]

I do not think Henry is willing to spend, spend, spend to no end.

 

He probably really hates paying a hefty tax (up to 50% plus 12% for anything over $20M and under $40M) on every dollar going over the limit PLUS, now we lose revenue sharing by going over. The extra cost and loss of revenue could be enormous.

 

For example, let's say we do or we don't reset this year, and next season's free agent class comes around- a much nicer one, I might add- and we decide we need a couple big named players that puts us over the limit by $40M.

 

Example A (where we reset this year): we pay a 20% tax. That's $8M total.

 

Example B (where we stayed over this year and are now at year 4: we pay a 50% tax of $20M plus a 12% tax on $20M ($2.4M) for a total of $22.4M.

 

It's easy to explain away a $14.4M differential as pocket change for a guy like Henry, but $14.4M to any budget that is not limitless could bring us a very very nice free agent.

 

I'm not sure how to compute the loss of revenue sharing, so there's that to add to the picture as well.

 

I do not see us becoming the Dodgers of the East or the Yankees of the past.

 

In your example, if we go over the limit by $40 million, how the heck do we ever get back under again? How do we keep Betts and Bogaerts?

 

I think it makes more sense to be around the threshold or a little over it every year, just as we've been doing, pretty much.

[S5Dewey]

 

When you look at the few we have, none are for beyond 38, and only Pedey is beyond 36. If price opts out, only Wright and HanRam could go to age 35 depending on options and arb choices.

 

I know it sucks losing so many prospects, but it's not like this is an old team with high need openings coming up in the next year or two.

 

I had the feeling we were becoming a young team from eyeballing the roster but I didn't realize the extent. Thanks, Moon. With the Sale trade DD was able to set the team up for the next few years.

 

DD has done his job. Now it's incumbent on the scouting group to draft the right people to allow us to replenish the team when/if our current players opt for Free Agency. If the scouting group comes through we could be in for a long run of success.

[S5Dewey]

In your example, if we go over the limit by $40 million, how the heck do we ever get back under again? How do we keep Betts and Bogaerts?

 

I think it makes more sense to be around the threshold or a little over it every year, just as we've been doing, pretty much.

 

I don't think there's any doubt that we're going to have to be around it every year, but we have to be under occasionally to because the tax rate escalates every consecutive year that we're over. IIRC it maxes out after 3 years @ 50%. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong in that.

 

Also, starting in 2017, each year a team exceeds the LT limit they are penalized by not receiving Revenue Sharing that year.

[iortiz]

According to Forbes, the Red Sox is the 3rd most valuable franchise in baseball. It is worth 2.3 B and made around 400 M in 2015. A 200+ payroll is pretty affordable. If a couple of millions is the gap to win it all, IMO they won't hesitate.

[jopete19]

Sorry, to take this thread in a different direction... But with Shaw and Moancada gone, our only third base option as of now is Holt or Pablo... thoughts on this?

[iortiz]

Sorry, to take this thread in a different direction... But with Shaw and Moancada gone, our only third base option as of now is Holt or Pablo... thoughts on this?

 

Seems like Pablo is in great shape and 100% healthy. Give him a shot.

[Emp9]

Sorry, to take this thread in a different direction... But with Shaw and Moancada gone, our only third base option as of now is Holt or Pablo... thoughts on this?

 

My hope is that Pablo has gotten his act together enough to help the team win next season and build his trade value, while Devers takes major steps on becoming our next 3B by 2018 or mid 2018.

[S5Dewey]

Sorry, to take this thread in a different direction... But with Shaw and Moancada gone, our only third base option as of now is Holt or Pablo... thoughts on this?

 

IMO the FO has put most of their eggs in Pablo's basket. In a worst-case scenario where he's unable to play at even a decent level there may be enough talent around him to carry the team, or if not there's always Brock Holt. Holt's not THE answer at 3B but given the people around him he should be AN answer while either Devers develops or we find a mediocre 3B at a reasonable price to take his place. Whatever happens, we shouldn't be any worse at 3B in 2017 than we were at 2016.

[sk7326]

Pablo is the bet. Now, obviously Holt can play it too. If you really get itchy, you can make a mistake for mistake deal with the ChiSox for Todd Frazier.

[a700hitter]

Pablo is the bet. Now, obviously Holt can play it too. If you really get itchy, you can make a mistake for mistake deal with the ChiSox for Todd Frazier.

Who platoons against LHP?

[moonslav59]

In your example, if we go over the limit by $40 million, how the heck do we ever get back under again? How do we keep Betts and Bogaerts?

 

I think it makes more sense to be around the threshold or a little over it every year, just as we've been doing, pretty much.

 

I'm not sure about the lost revenue sharing aspect, but you are right, if we only go over by $2-8M a year, then a 20% or 50% tax is not much of a difference.

[moonslav59]

I had the feeling we were becoming a young team from eyeballing the roster but I didn't realize the extent. Thanks, Moon. With the Sale trade DD was able to set the team up for the next few years.

 

DD has done his job. Now it's incumbent on the scouting group to draft the right people to allow us to replenish the team when/if our current players opt for Free Agency. If the scouting group comes through we could be in for a long run of success.

 

I've never seen a Sox team so set-up and locked in with virtually every major player for 2 or more years AND the vast majority with all or most contract years within prime years!

 

We only lose Buch and Young next winter.

 

Losing Kimbrel after 2018 could hurt. Also losing Kelly, Pomeranz and Ross should be substantial. HanRam has a vesting option as well, but man-O-man, we are set up nicely for a 2-3 year window.

 

[moonslav59]

Sorry, to take this thread in a different direction... But with Shaw and Moancada gone, our only third base option as of now is Holt or Pablo... thoughts on this?

 

Scary.

 

We also have Hernandez and maybe Devers by 2018.

[moonslav59]

IMO the FO has put most of their eggs in Pablo's basket. In a worst-case scenario where he's unable to play at even a decent level there may be enough talent around him to carry the team, or if not there's always Brock Holt. Holt's not THE answer at 3B but given the people around him he should be AN answer while either Devers develops or we find a mediocre 3B at a reasonable price to take his place. Whatever happens, we shouldn't be any worse at 3B in 2017 than we were at 2016.

 

I think Hernandez could surprise some people at 3B next year.

 

Devers took a huge step forward on defense this year, so maybe he could be ready earlier than we hope.

[mvp 78]

Pablo is going to have his best season since 2011.

[sk7326]

Who platoons against LHP?

 

I guess if you wanted to carry a 13th position player like Hernandez fine. I could also see a scenario where the Red Sox tinker with Swihart trying out a corner as well as catching (in whatever capacity). It is a gap right now - but "part time corner infielder" is the one shopping list item, wonderful.

[Emp9]

I don't see Sox being able extend anyone too early with out trading Pablo. So I hope he has a great year.

[moonslav59]

Who platoons against LHP?

 

That's a good question. Pablo is one of baseball's worst hitters vs lefties. Holt and Hernandez both bat LH'd.

 

We do have a few things working in our favor:

 

1) We only faced a LH'd starter 23% of the time this year. Maybe that happens again next year. (Just 37 games for a platoon are needed.)

2) Holt has a better OPS vs LHPs (.709) than RHPs (.704), and while it's not great by any means, it's way better than Pablo's the last 3 years combined (.651).

3) While Hernadez only has 9 PAs vs LHPs in MLB career (1.055 OPS), he hit lefties at .328 in AAA this year (.736 OPS) and .315 in 2017 (.710 OPS) both better than vs RHPs! (He had a .731 OPS vs LHPs in AA last year (.315 BA).

[moonslav59]

I guess if you wanted to carry a 13th position player like Hernandez fine. I could also see a scenario where the Red Sox tinker with Swihart trying out a corner as well as catching (in whatever capacity). It is a gap right now - but "part time corner infielder" is the one shopping list item, wonderful.

 

I'm pretty sure most teams carry 12 pitchers during the season not 13. Maybe even more carry 11 than 13 for the playoffs, but I'm not sure about that.

[moonslav59]

I don't see Sox being able extend anyone too early with out trading Pablo. So I hope he has a great year.

 

Depends if going over the luxury limit matters.

[moonslav59]

On International signings:

The details of the new bonus pool system for the 2017-18 July 2 class of international prospects has been reported by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, who provides a recap of how the July 2 market has been altered under the new collective bargaining agreement. All teams have been assigned bonus pools of either $5.75MM, $5.25MM or $4.75MM, based on their revenues and market size.

[moonslav59]

Today’s acquisition of Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers will end Boston’s foray into the relief market for the winter, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Most notably, this would seem to end any chance of the Sox re-signing Koji Uehara or Brad Ziegler.

 

-MLBTR