A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Nick]

Abad's out of options. I think he'll be gone.

 

Moon projected $21.85 on his 9 arb players (see page 1...Abad and Holaday not included)....It turned out to be $22.7......that's pretty damn good Moon.

[moonslav59]

Moon projected $21.85 on his 9 arb players (see page 1...Abad and Holaday not included)....It turned out to be $22.7......that's pretty damn good Moon.

 

Thanks. This is the closest I've ever gotten. I'm no expert on arbs.

 

I think I remember someone saying Bogey would get $10M minimum. First year arb players are often way underpaid when compared to the "open market".

[moonslav59]

Updated

 

Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

 

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remain off the 40 man roster.)

__________________________________________________

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) 0 to $17.25M (giving both)

 

Let’s assume we say yes to Buch and no to Hanigan’s ($800K buyout):

Updated to

TOTAL: $137.65M

_________________________________________

Arbs (11players) ~$22.7M: Fernando Abad $2.0MM, Robbie Ross Jr.$1.8MM, Joe Kelly $2.6MM, Drew Pomeranz $4.7MM, Josh Rutledge $1.0MM, Brock Holt $1.7MM,

Xander Bogaerts $5.7MM, Bryan Holaday $900K (out of options- may be DFA'd or traded), Brandon Workman $600K, Jackie Bradley Jr.$3.3MM, Sandy Leon $1.3MM

 

TOTAL of 19 players: ~$160.4M (with Buch)

_______________________________________________________

 

The 21 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Benintendi, Scott, Moncada TOTAL: ~$12.6M

 

40 Player Total: ~ $173M

 

Now, add the estimated $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is...

 

TOTAL $185M

 

That leaves us with about $4M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M for 2017.

 

If we assume it will be about $210M next year, which leaves us with about $25 to spend and stay close to or under the luxury tax. It is my understanding that the Sox luxury tax will be 50% next year, so I think there is interest to reset that number.

 

Some of these players may be traded or DFA'd due to lack of options remaining:

Holaday, Abad, Elias & Brentz

 

Not taking Buch's $13.5M option and paying the $500K buyout would add $13M to the amount, but it would create another hole.

 

 

 

[Dojji]

I would be happy if the team put almost all the money fans are earmarking into expensive acquisitions of new talent, into buying out arb years for some of our top young stars, especially Bogaerts and Betts, both of which are already star level and both of which actually have the potential to develop further (especially Bogaerts). Buying out arb years on these players is almost certain to be a good investment and should be done as soon as practical.

 

I think it's very very likely that Bogaerts has at least a couple 30 HR seasons, and I'd like to see him accomplish this on a team friendly deal.

[oldtimer]

I would be happy if the team put almost all the money fans are earmarking into expensive acquisitions of new talent, into buying out arb years for some of our top young stars, especially Bogaerts and Betts, both of which are already star level and both of which actually have the potential to develop further (especially Bogaerts). Buying out arb years on these players is almost certain to be a good investment and should be done as soon as practical.

 

I think it's very very likely that Bogaerts has at least a couple 30 HR seasons, and I'd like to see him accomplish this on a team friendly deal.

 

At least one Boston sports writer is talking about the possibility of picking up another starter but not an ace. Some of the talk was about Pomeranz ineffectiveness at Fenway and some other about the possibility of signing Buchholz only to use him as trade bait. it sounds like the situation is pretty fluid and of course the competition for both starting pitchers and star quality relievers will be intense.

 

Putting money into our young stars is not a bad idea. I am still an advocate of fixing 3rd base and doing DH as a platoon job if need be.

[S5Dewey]

Updated

 

Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

 

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remain off the 40 man roster.)

__________________________________________________

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) 0 to $17.25M (giving both)

 

Let’s assume we say yes to Buch and no to Hanigan’s ($800K buyout):

Updated to

TOTAL: $137.65M

_________________________________________

Arbs (11players) ~$22.7M: Fernando Abad $2.0MM, Robbie Ross Jr.$1.8MM, Joe Kelly $2.6MM, Drew Pomeranz $4.7MM, Josh Rutledge $1.0MM, Brock Holt $1.7MM,

Xander Bogaerts $5.7MM, Bryan Holaday $900K (out of options- may be DFA'd or traded), Brandon Workman $600K, Jackie Bradley Jr.$3.3MM, Sandy Leon $1.3MM

 

TOTAL of 19 players: ~$160.4M (with Buch)

_______________________________________________________

 

The 21 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Benintendi, Scott, Moncada TOTAL: ~$12.6M

 

40 Player Total: ~ $173M

 

Now, add the estimated $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is...

 

TOTAL $185M

 

That leaves us with about $4M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M for 2017.

 

If we assume it will be about $210M next year, which leaves us with about $25 to spend and stay close to or under the luxury tax. It is my understanding that the Sox luxury tax will be 50% next year, so I think there is interest to reset that number.

 

Some of these players may be traded or DFA'd due to lack of options remaining:

Holaday, Abad, Elias & Brentz

 

Not taking Buch's $13.5M option and paying the $500K buyout would add $13M to the amount, but it would create another hole.

 

Here's how to add a quick ~$3M to our bottom line.

1) Cut ties with Fernando Abad (a/k/a Fernando Adreadful). Do we really need to sign a guy who has an ERA of >6.00?

2) Getting rid of Holaday will save us another $900,000. We have Leon, Vazquez and Swihart coming back and of the four Holaday is the most expendable. And don't we still have Butler in AAA as our super-emergency catcher? In fact, if I were making the decision I'd blow the entire $3M+ and sign Hanigan rather than pay Holiday $900,000.

[cp176]

I would be happy if the team put almost all the money fans are earmarking into expensive acquisitions of new talent, into buying out arb years for some of our top young stars, especially Bogaerts and Betts, both of which are already star level and both of which actually have the potential to develop further (especially Bogaerts). Buying out arb years on these players is almost certain to be a good investment and should be done as soon as practical.

 

I think it's very very likely that Bogaerts has at least a couple 30 HR seasons, and I'd like to see him accomplish this on a team friendly deal.

 

Already been mentioned

[cp176]

At least one Boston sports writer is talking about the possibility of picking up another starter but not an ace. Some of the talk was about Pomeranz ineffectiveness at Fenway and some other about the possibility of signing Buchholz only to use him as trade bait. it sounds like the situation is pretty fluid and of course the competition for both starting pitchers and star quality relievers will be intense.

 

Putting money into our young stars is not a bad idea. I am still an advocate of fixing 3rd base and doing DH as a platoon job if need be.

 

i guess that I might be the only one but I will keep saying - third base really is not a big deal. If that is a real problem for us right now, then we have it pretty good.

[Dojji]

Already been mentioned

 

If we can't talk about things that have already been talked about this is going to be a quiet Hot Stove season

[moonslav59]

Here's how to add a quick ~$3M to our bottom line.

1) Cut ties with Fernando Abad (a/k/a Fernando Adreadful). Do we really need to sign a guy who has an ERA of >6.00?

2) Getting rid of Holaday will save us another $900,000. We have Leon, Vazquez and Swihart coming back and of the four Holaday is the most expendable. And don't we still have Butler in AAA as our super-emergency catcher? In fact, if I were making the decision I'd blow the entire $3M+ and sign Hanigan rather than pay Holiday $900,000.

 

$900K + $900K is closer to $2M not 3, but I agree on both.

 

Once 3B is se6yttled, I could see us trading Rutledge ($1M)

[mvp 78]

They are not going to sign Buchholz just to trade him away before the season starts.

[cp176]

If we can't talk about things that have already been talked about this is going to be a quiet Hot Stove season

 

i don't care what is talked about. Just saying. How about we discuss why some think that a decent fielding third baseman who is good for between 15 and 20 h/runs and 70 plus rbis is such an extreme liability for us going forward.

[Nick]

$900K + $900K is closer to $2M not 3, but I agree on both.

 

Once 3B is se6yttled, I could see us trading Rutledge ($1M)

 

You must have extra long left index finger...lol

[mvp 78]

Cespedes is opting out. Any interest?

[Nick]

I'm pretty content with the team....needs tweaking

 

DD will quickly get the bullpen situation settled...FA signings (no big names)/trades

I can still see EE signing....that's just how DD rolls and I won't be suprised

Pablo will get a shot in spring training...at some point, it's on Pablo isn't it? Does he have any pride left or will he just be content collecting money and getting fat?

Shaw needs to quit whining and get his bat going.....they are not going to give it to him...he has to earn it.

DD needs to tell Swihart, what he wants from him

Benintendi should not be platooned....

Anxious to see Wright pitch again

I hope Clay is our 6th man and we don't need him..

 

It's a good time to be a Sox fan

[Eddy Ballgame]

Cespedes is opting out. Any interest?

 

Some people ard predicting he'll get 6/150. Even if the Sox traded Bradley or Benintendi, I'd still have no interest.

[Eddy Ballgame]

They are not going to sign Buchholz just to trade him away before the season starts.

 

Buchholz has plenty of value, especially with a week free agent starting pitcher class.

 

I'm sure they'll pick up the option and I have no doubt that they will at least listen if they receive any offers. I wouldn't be surprised if they shop him around, either.

[moonslav59]

They are not going to sign Buchholz just to trade him away before the season starts.

 

I doubt they will either, but if he's not part of their plans for next year, we might as well get something for him via trade rather than just not offer the option.

[moonslav59]

Cespedes is opting out. Any interest?

 

Only if we trade JBJ or Beni as part of a larger package for an ace.

[S5Dewey]

$900K + $900K is closer to $2M not 3, but I agree on both.

 

Once 3B is se6yttled, I could see us trading Rutledge ($1M)

 

Ughhh. This is MYbad (see what I did there? ) I somehow got the idea that it was going to cost us $2M to get rid of Abad. OOps. thanks for the correction.

[Dojji]

Cespedes is opting out. Any interest?

 

If I was in the market for the thing that Cespedes is, I'd be all in. The team could easily find some way to shoehorn Cespedes onto their roster. As much as I love Beni, I wouldn't mind Cespedes in left to compliment Betts and Bradley. But I think the team has more pressing needs.

[Spudboy]

Cespedes is "Me me me".

 

He is not what I see as a high character guy.

 

I think it would be a bad fit here in Boston. He did not want to be here the first time.

 

Let him rot in Queens.

[Kimmi]

It's a good time to be a Sox fan

 

It's been a good time to be a Sox fan since this ownership group took over.

[moonslav59]

Other than Jansen, Chapman and Melancon, is anybody else having difficulty seeing another free agent RP'er worth getting serious about?

 

Relief Pitchers

John Axford

Joaquin Benoit

Jonathan Broxton

Buddy Carlyle

Brett Cecil

Santiago Casilla

Aroldis Chapman

Jesse Chavez

Tim Collins

Aaron Crow

Wade Davis *

Michael Dunn

Dana Eveland

Neftali Feliz

Jason Grilli *

Luke Hochevar

Greg Holland

J.P. Howell

Kenley Jansen

Casey Janssen

Kevin Jepsen

Brandon League

Boone Logan

Javier Lopez

Brian Matusz

Mark Melancon

Joe Nathan

Josh Outman

Yusmeiro Petit

Cesar Ramos

Francisco Rodriguez *

Sergio Romo

Marc Rzepczynski

Fernando Salas

Sergio Santos

Joe Smith

Craig Stammen

Drew Storen

Josh Tomlin

Jordan Walden *

Brad Ziegler

 

 

 

[Dojji]

Hochevar, Axford, Tomlin, possibly Holland, possibly Lopez. Luke Hochevar is really flying under the radar right now, he might be a good smartball pickup.

[moonslav59]

Hochevar, Axford, Tomlin, possibly Holland, possibly Lopez. Luke Hochevar is really flying under the radar right now, he might be a good smartball pickup.

 

What are your thoughts on Logan?

[oldtimer]

Cespedes is "Me me me".

 

He is not what I see as a high character guy.

 

I think it would be a bad fit here in Boston. He did not want to be here the first time.

 

Let him rot in Queens.

 

I agree with you on this one Spudboy. We can do better than him, plus I hate the idea of trading away Beni.

[mvp 78]

What are your thoughts on Logan?

 

I'd rather Logan than Abad.

[mvp 78]

It's been a good time to be a Sox fan since this ownership group took over.

 

It's been a good time to be a Sox fan since 1901. FTFY.

 

The Sox have been a solid team for the most part since 67.

[Nick]

I agree with you on this one Spudboy. We can do better than him, plus I hate the idea of trading away Beni.

 

We have him for another six freaking years.....he's a keeper. Do not trade Beni.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Nick