A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Kimmi]

I have always preferred a defensive catcher over an offensive one, to wit, I would love to have a tandem of Vazquez/Leon next year. I have nothing against Swihart, I just don't think offense is that important for a catcher.

 

Personally, I'd start Swihart in AAA to let him develop his defensive skills at catching. While it would be nice to give him reps at another position, like 3B, I think it would be more prudent to let him focus on his defensive game at catching to assess what we really have there.

[Kimmi]

CERA is not a valuable statistic. We're moving away from evaluating purely based on ERA for pitchers, I don't know why people think ERA for catchers is such a great idea.

 

It can be a valuable statistic. It's just that the stat is often used incorrectly and that the sample sizes are usually not large enough to make it meaningful. That said, you're right that there are other metrics that can and should be used to evaluate catchers.

[moonslav59]

And instead of give him that chance last year, when none of the other catchers were hitting and the team was flailing in May, they moved him off position to get his bat in the lineup

 

The fact of the matter is that for whatever reason, Swihart's bat is way ahead of his glove, to the point that despite possibly being the best option going forward, he's not the best fit here. Our rotation isn't strong enough to carry a raw defender at the dish and we're trying to win right now. If there's a single worst possible position to carry a "project" while you have championship ambitions, it's catcher. There were plenty of reports that our pitchers don't want to throw to him and don't trust his hands and judgment, especially if they could be throwing to Vazquez or Leon instead. Building trust with your pitchers is the single most important skillset of a catcher, more important than hitting and more important than athleticism, and Swihart doesn't have it right now. Also, FWIW, he seemed to struggle badly with Wright's knuckler, yet another indictment of his talents as a receiver. Since Steven Wright is looking like a major part of the rotation next year, maybe even the #3 starter, that's an issue -- hardly insurmountable, but something a manager playing Swihart regularly would have to cope with..

 

It's very clear the team is reluctant to trust him defensively or turn him loose full-time to learn the catcher's position at the big league level regardless of the fact that the bat is probably big league right now. He's either going to wind up playing at another position to shoehorn his bat into the lineup, or being traded to another team that's willing to give him the full time big league time he needs to straighten out his defensive game out. Moving to a small market that's willing to sink years of big league playing time into developing a potential star would probably be the best thing for Swihart's career right now.

 

That's what I've been saying all along.

 

Like Iggy, who I hated trading away, the fact was with Iggy and is now with Swihart, are not in Sox management's plans at their highest value position. Like moving Iggy to 3B, moving Swihart to LF when our catcher hitting was under a .550 OPS was extremely telling.

 

My other big point has been that with the state of catching in MLB today, many GMs, some on winning teams, are dying to add a promising catcher to their roster- risks and all and defensive issues and all. I think Swihart has a very high trade value, and that his value to another team rates to be higher than his value to us as a third string catcher and possible utility type player in 2017.

[moonslav59]

CERA is not a valuable statistic. We're moving away from evaluating purely based on ERA for pitchers, I don't know why people think ERA for catchers is such a great idea.

 

CERA's value is when comparing only catchers on the same team AND pitcher by pitcher with significant sample sizes. I'm not sure the sample sizes are large enough to compare, plus Vaz wasn't playing last year and Swihart wasn't really playing this year. Comparing how Vaz did with Porcello this year vs how Swihart did with Porcello last year might not be fair. It's hard to fully blame the catcher for Porcello's Jekyll and Hyde show.

 

The sample sizes are all whacked out, but here they are:

 

Porcello:

2016: Leon 2.52 (107 innings), Han 3.45 (16), Vaz 3.64 (94), Swi 6.00 (6)

2015: Han 4.15 (39), Swi 4.47 (107), Leon 7.86 (26)

Career: Leon 3.57 (134), Vaz 3.64 (94), Han 3.95 (55), Swi 4.55 (113)

 

Price:

2016: Leon 3.23 (109), Hola 4.15 (13), Vaz 4.62 (97), Swi 5.73 (11)

 

Buchholz:

Career: Hola 2.25 (8), Leon 3.01 (155), Vaz 4.44 (130), Han 5.93 (27), Swi 10.00 (9)

 

ERod:

Career: Han 3.78 (50), Swi 4.08 (71), Vaz 4.50 (22), Leon 4.60 (86)

 

Wright:

Career: Swi 1.35 (7), Vaz 2.72 (36), Han 2.90 (90), Leon 6.46 (24)

 

Pom:

2016: Hola 3.32 (41), Leon 5.85 (20), Han 7.88 (8)

 

Barnes:

Career: Hola 0.00 (3), Vaz 2.02 (27), Swi 4.50 (30), Han 5.93 (27), Leon 6.14 (29)

 

Ross:

Career: Hola 0.00 (3), Leon 2.28 (47), Han 2.84 (32), Swi 4.94 (27), Vaz 12.86 (7)

 

Hembree:

Career: Swi 1.20 (15), Han 1.83 (20), Hola 3.00 (3), Vaz 3.08 (26), Leon 5.48 (21)

 

Uehara:

Career: Han 1.12 (24), Swi 2.60 (17), Leon 2.86 (28), Vaz 5.35 (35)

 

Tazawa:

Career: Vaz 3.06 (35), Leon 3.16 (26), Swi 3.86 (28), Han 4.10 (37)

 

Kimbrel:

2016: Han 1.74 (10), Vaz 2.04 (18), Leon 3.20 (20)

 

Kelly:

Career: Vaz 3.06 (35), Han 4.83 (91), Swi 5.10 (60), Han 5.23 (10)

 

Ziegler:

2016: Han 0,00 (3), Vaz 0.00 (2), Leon 2.01 (22), Hola 3.38 (3)

 

It's hard to draw any conclusions from these wildly unbalanced sample sizes over 1-2 years.

 

[Soxdog67]

Not sure if this has been brought up by anyone at this point, since I have not read through all 33 pages of this post, but I wonder if Dombrowski would consider reaching out to the Reds and give up a few top prospects for Joey Votto? I believe it would make sense to get another strong lefty bat in the line-up to retain balance, plus it would move Hanley into a full-time DH role which might be what he wants at this stage.

 

Assuming this happened the line-up would be:

- Pedroia 2B

- Benintendi/Young -LF

- Betts RF

- Votto 1B

- Ramirez DH

- Bogaerts - SS

- Sandoval/Shaw 3B

- Swihart/Leon C

- Bradley Jr CF (if not included in deal for Votto)

 

So the key question is whether Cincinnati decides to move Votto and what package would be fair in a deal...without selling the farm?

[Nick]

Not sure if this has been brought up by anyone at this point, since I have not read through all 33 pages of this post, but I wonder if Dombrowski would consider reaching out to the Reds and give up a few top prospects for Joey Votto? I believe it would make sense to get another strong lefty bat in the line-up to retain balance, plus it would move Hanley into a full-time DH role which might be what he wants at this stage.

 

Assuming this happened the line-up would be:

- Pedroia 2B

- Benintendi/Young -LF

- Betts RF

- Votto 1B

- Ramirez DH

- Bogaerts - SS

- Sandoval/Shaw 3B

- Swihart/Leon C

- Bradley Jr CF (if not included in deal for Votto)

 

So the key question is whether Cincinnati decides to move Votto and what package would be fair in a deal...without selling the farm?

 

If we simply sign EE, we lose our draft pick, valued around mid 20's 1st round. Why would I give up JBJ and someone else when I can simply sign EE?

[Dojji]

Have you guys seen Votto's contract? It's a much heavier commitment than I'm comfortable taking on on top of an additional price in top prospects. The Reds owe Votto 8/172 if all options vest. That's a lot of money for a player we technically don't need.

[Soxdog67]

If we simply sign EE, we lose our draft pick, valued around mid 20's 1st round. Why would I give up JBJ and someone else when I can simply sign EE?

 

The line-up is too righthanded in the power slots and bringing in Votto would help balance things. Although Hanley did well at 1B last year he is perfect for the DH role and Votto would be a gold glover at 1B. Plus, it is highly unlikely all their prospects make it so moving some of them n a deal should not be out of the question!

[Nick]

Team Control through # of years for position players

 

Young 1

Hanley 3

Holt 3

Xander 3

Betts 4

JBJ 4

Leon 4

Vazquez 4

Pablo 4

Swihart 5

Pedy 5

Shaw 5

Moncada 6

Benintendi 6

Hernandez 6

 

Position players are set...only Young will be gone after 2017, 0 in 2018, Betts, Hanley and Holt after 2019....Basically we have 3 year window to win a world series with only Young gone.

Edited November 7, 2016 by Nick

[Nick]

For pitchers

 

Clay B 1

Price 2

Kimbrel 2

Kelly 2

Pomeraz 2

Ross Jr 2

Porcello 3

C Smith 4

S Wright 4

E Rod 5

M Barnes 5

H Hembree 5

B Johnson 6

H Owens 6

Kopech 6

 

will need reinforcements earlier than the position players

Edited November 7, 2016 by Nick

[Nick]

The line-up is too righthanded in the power slots and bringing in Votto would help balance things. Although Hanley did well at 1B last year he is perfect for the DH role and Votto would be a gold glover at 1B. Plus, it is highly unlikely all their prospects make it so moving some of them n a deal should not be out of the question!

 

You don't think Reds wont ask for Bradley? E Rod? Moncada? Swihart? Again why would you give up any of them when you can go after FA?

[S5Dewey]

How did this conversation get from "the lineup is too right handed in the power slots" to trading Bradley, who bats lefty with an OPS of .835?

[moonslav59]

If we really want to get a DH who hits well vs RHPs (and LHPs, I might add), then maybe Beltran is the answer.

[Nick]

How did this conversation get from "the lineup is too right handed in the power slots" to trading Bradley, who bats lefty with an OPS of .835?

 

Looking from Reds' perspective, Bradley would replace a left handed bat, with four more years of team control. It would cost far less for him than for Votto. I suspect they'd want couple of minor leaguers to boot.

Edited November 7, 2016 by Nick

[Nick]

Kopech having a great AFL....one walk in 14 innings. He and E Rod maybe our future 1/2. I hope the Sox will have a long look at him as a starter and not convert him into a reliever.

[moonslav59]

Looking from Reds' perspective, Bradley would replace a left handed bat, with four more years of team control. They'd pay far less for him than for Votto. I suspect they'd want couple of minor leaguers to boot.

 

If they take Pablo with JBJ, then I'd maybe do it.

 

Votto's contract is so high that even though he is doing great, he's tipped the balance to being a salary dump.

[moonslav59]

Kopech having a great AFL....one walk in 14 innings. He and E Rod maybe our future 1/2. I hope the Sox will have a long look at him as a starter and not convert him into a reliever.

 

Eventually Groome may join the top of the rotation.

 

Maybe we won't miss Espi.

[Nick]

Eventually Groome may join the top of the rotation.

 

Maybe we won't miss Espi.

 

Just hearing good things about Kopech. Control issues are minimal. Ball movement is excellent, tight spin, can't set on his fast ball any longer, etc. Swing and miss pitcher. Fastball, slider, change. Got rid of curve ball. Just going by memory on what I've read. Apparently he used his suspension time well to develop and work on his pitches. Hopefully Grooome won't be too far behind, but he is only 18.

 

Looking at team controllable years on several players on our current roster, I'm really okay with tweaking the bullpen and just sitting back. I don't want to trade away young players with high ceiling potential. Don't get me wrong, I would love to get Votto, but with his salary, we can simply get a FA with less contract length.

 

Betts, Xander, Bradley, Beni, Swihart, Moncada, Devers, E Rod, Kopech, Groome, Ownens, Johnson, Travis, Hernandez, Dalbech, Chatham, Shawaryn just to name a few...keepers.

Edited November 7, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I don't want to trade away young players with high ceiling potential.

 

That's the main reason the Pomeranz trade kills me.

 

If we do trade away high ceiling potential, then if better be for something big.

Edited November 7, 2016 by moonslav59

[Nick]

I don't want to trade away young players with high ceiling potential.

 

That's the main reason the Pomeranz trade kills me.

 

If we do trade away high ceiling potential, then if better be for something big.

 

For me, the difference this winter is we now have a team that's capable of competing for the division title with bullpen additions. If we don't do anything else, we may not be dominant but we're probably good enough to win the division. Just want to see Wright repeat his first half, Pomeranz improve, E Rod stays healthy and continues to improve, Beni become a solid fixture in outfield, Betts repeat or come close to what he did last year, Xander get out of his funk, Pedy just needs to be on the field, Swihart given a chance to catch, Kelly continue to improve and be consistent, Buchholtz return to his odd year performance.....well you know where I'm going with this....

 

I think DD will kick the tire on EE situation, gentlly, but he'd probably find the tire too hard. Plan B is to add little pieces or big dollar short term contracts.

[cp176]

I don't want to trade away young players with high ceiling potential.

 

That's the main reason the Pomeranz trade kills me.

 

If we do trade away high ceiling potential, then if better be for something big.

 

Yes - Espinoza is no longer in our system. Pomeranz is. How old is Espinoza again (i do know the answer) and how has he actually performed to date? Don't get me wrong, no one likes to see potential pitching traded away but in this case being somewhat realistic is also a good thing. You are not the only one here who has been grievously upset over this (or any) of DD's deals but what do you or Espi's most ardent supporters see as his potential timeline to break in to any ml rotation? 4-5-6 years or ever? Who can tell. Like it or not, the Pomeranz deal was necessary and has a much greater chance of helping us for the next 5 years than hanging on to the teenager would have. As a fan of this team, I am as concerned about our future teams as anyone. I just think that the future plan encompasses a shorter period of time - say 5 years - as opposed to others.

[moonslav59]

Yes - Espinoza is no longer in our system. Pomeranz is. How old is Espinoza again (i do know the answer) and how has he actually performed to date? Don't get me wrong, no one likes to see potential pitching traded away but in this case being somewhat realistic is also a good thing. You are not the only one here who has been grievously upset over this (or any) of DD's deals but what do you or Espi's most ardent supporters see as his potential timeline to break in to any ml rotation? 4-5-6 years or ever? Who can tell. Like it or not, the Pomeranz deal was necessary and has a much greater chance of helping us for the next 5 years than hanging on to the teenager would have. As a fan of this team, I am as concerned about our future teams as anyone. I just think that the future plan encompasses a shorter period of time - say 5 years - as opposed to others.

 

And, that's exactly the mindset Theo criticized himself for getting away from in Boston.

 

If Espi is the next Pedro, and I'm not saying he will be, I can wait 4-5-6 years.

 

I get that when you are talking about a pitcher who turns 19 in March, it's near total speculation, but how often to 18 year old pitchers climb that high on the rankings lists?

 

There's a reason for it. His potential is enormous, and caring too much about his "numbers" at age 18 is being short-sighted.

[cp176]

I do not care at all about Theo - how he felt - what his mindset was - 0. I do not know him. He does not play for us. He does not pay the bills.

 

I would not sacrifice the next 4-5-6 years in hopes that in the 7th Pedro might reappear. It is a waste of time. There will be others.

 

I am not being short-sighted with respect to his numbers. Whether they be his performance to date or what in the opinions of many they might be in the future. I get the fact that he does have great potential.

[moonslav59]

I do not care at all about Theo - how he felt - what his mindset was - 0. I do not know him. He does not play for us. He does not pay the bills.

 

I would not sacrifice the next 4-5-6 years in hopes that in the 7th Pedro might reappear. It is a waste of time. There will be others.

 

I am not being short-sighted with respect to his numbers. Whether they be his performance to date or what in the opinions of many they might be in the future. I get the fact that he does have great potential.

 

Wow! "A waste of time".

 

I'd have been fine trading Espi (with others) for a real ace in the "here and now", but to trade such talent for a promise of a #3 starter, and yes, that's all Pom was and is was a mistake.

 

The future is now- 4-5-6 years ago.

 

If we had taken this route 3-4-5 years ago, we'd have traded away Betts for Hammel, Bogey for who knows who, and maybe we wouldn't have finished in last place so much recently. Whopp-dee-freakin-doo!

[cp176]

Wow! "A waste of time".

 

I'd have been fine trading Espi (with others) for a real ace in the "here and now", but to trade such talent for a promise of a #3 starter, and yes, that's all Pom was and is was a mistake.

 

The future is now- 4-5-6 years ago.

 

If we had taken this route 3-4-5 years ago, we'd have traded away Betts for Hammel, Bogey for who knows who, and maybe we wouldn't have finished in last place so much recently. Whopp-dee-freakin-doo!

 

Yes - a waste of time in this case.

This is what you do. I get it. You aren't alone. You assume that because an 18 year old kid was traded for a 27 year old kid with some upside as well, that whoever suggests that this still is good idea then those people would of course have traded Betts, Bogaerts, etc. for immediate wins. It is a sad way to characterize people who just don't agree with you but I guess it is what people do these days. I happen to believe that it is still possible to look at this franchise with an eye toward the future be it the immediate future or 5 years down the line. It is a balancing act and to date I have seen nothing from our management that even looks remotely like selling off the future for today.

Keep the faith though - maybe in a few years you will be able to hindsight DD's views to death.

[Bellhorn04]

The bottom line is, nothing can be done about what's been done.

[Dojji]

The other bottom line is that we won the division this year, we're reasonably well set up for the short-to-intermediate future, and it's stupid to try to project anything more than about 3 years out in this sport.

 

It's entirely possible that Anderson Espinosa never makes the majors.

 

It's entirely possible he does, is a fantastic player, and Pomeranz helps us win a ring in the meantime and nobody cares.

 

It's entirely possible that Pomeranz is hurt by next opening day, never pitches again, and certain people whose motivations I comprehend but don't understand get to validate their existence by playing the told-you-so game on an Internet forum.

 

All of these are possibilities but none is more than a possibility. None of these outcomes have happened yet, so posting as if anything is a foregone conclusion is an exercise in self-delusion.

[a700hitter]

The bottom line is, nothing can be done about what's been done.

Have you given up all hope of having a better past?

[cp176]

The bottom line is, nothing can be done about what's been done.

 

Oh come on Bell - Don't rain on the current King of Hindsight's parade. Don't spoil the moment.

[cp176]

The other bottom line is that we won the division this year, we're reasonably well set up for the short-to-intermediate future, and it's stupid to try to project anything more than about 3 years out in this sport.

 

It's entirely possible that Anderson Espinosa never makes the majors.

 

It's entirely possible he does, is a fantastic player, and Pomeranz helps us win a ring in the meantime and nobody cares.

 

It's entirely possible that Pomeranz is hurt by next opening day, never pitches again, and certain people whose motivations I comprehend but don't understand get to validate their existence by playing the told-you-so game on an Internet forum.

 

All of these are possibilities but none is more than a possibility. None of these outcomes have happened yet, so posting as if anything is a foregone conclusion is an exercise in self-delusion.

 

short term - intermediate - long term

 

I circle intermediate if I have to choose. lol