A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Of course it's only my opinion, but I believe that Vazquez was rushed back due to the sense of urgency that management admitted to having.

 

Vazquez may have had plenty of time to develop. He did not have enough time to rehab after his injury. Calling him back too soon ended up hurting his progress in that regard.

 

Swihart did an admirable job in 2015 when he was called up before he was ready. That said, if memory serves me right, he was the worst defensive catcher that season. He could have benefited from more reps at catcher this past year once he was sent back down in lieu of Vazquez.

 

Rather than moving him to left field, which was another 'sense of urgency' move, they should have let him focus on honing his catching skills.

 

All my opinion, of course, but I think the FO acted rashly in many instances last season. I also thought they called up both Beni and Moncada too quickly. They were right with Beni, but not so with Moncada.

 

When you're in a pennant race, urgency does change some priorities.

 

The injuries to Young and Holt forced the need for a LF'er. Since Swihart's defense as a catcher seemed to be a major issue for the Sox brass, one can easily see why finding another position for him made sense. He may never be our catcher of the future, and we needed a LF'er badly. I can see the point being made about impeding his progress as a catcher, but we were looking to win, and I still think Swihart will never pass Vaz on the catching depth chart due to the defensive disparity.

 

We thought we had Beltran at the deadline, but a last minute change by the Yanks left us high and dry in LF. That's why Beni was "rushed". I had no issues with that call at the time.

 

Our putrid play at 3B through August and September did make calling Moncada up an easier choice. Yeah, he looked bad in his tiny sample size, but I think he learned some lessons. He's playing in the fall league, so I don't think we slowed his growth by calling him up.

[Spudboy]

And Moncada has clearly upped his game in the AFL.

 

After all, he did have a game in which he made 2 errors at 3rd and struck out 3 times.

 

PROGRESS!!!!!!!!1!!!

[moonslav59]

And Moncada has clearly upped his game in the AFL.

 

After all, he did have a game in which he made 2 errors at 3rd and struck out 3 times.

 

PROGRESS!!!!!!!!1!!!

 

He's got an .829 OPS in 24 ABs in the AFL. 10 Ks.

[Spudboy]

He's got an .829 OPS in 24 ABs in the AFL. 10 Ks.

 

Good.

 

I need to see him hit an MLB curve ball before I award him a job.

[moonslav59]

Good.

 

I need to see him hit an MLB curve ball before I award him a job.

 

I'm not penciling him in either.

[Emp9]

They're gonna say they believe3 in him as a catcher whether they do or not. Can't hurt that trade value. Still says everything you need to know that they went the path they did with Leon and Hanigan before going to Swhiart as the backstop again.

 

The path they took was backto Plan A. Swihart was Plan C in 2015.

[moonslav59]

The path they took was backto Plan A. Swihart was Plan C in 2015.

 

And, as of right now, he's plan C for 2017.

 

A- Leon (or Leon/Vazquez platoon)

B- Vazquez (or Vaz-Leon platoon)

C- Swihart as part of some sort of platoon.

[moonslav59]

Free Agent Options at Our Positions of Need

 

Relief Pitchers: John Axford, Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Broxton, Buddy Carlyle, Brett Cecil, Santiago Casilla, Aroldis Chapman, Jesse Chavez, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Wade Davis *, Michael Dunn, Dana Eveland, Neftali Feliz, Jason Grilli *, Luke Hochevar, Greg Holland, J.P. Howell, Kenley Jansen, Casey Janssen, Kevin Jepsen, Brandon League, Boone Logan, Javier Lopez, Brian Matusz, Mark Melancon, Joe Nathan, Josh Outman, Yusmeiro Petit, Cesar Ramos, Francisco Rodriguez *, Sergio Romo, Marc Rzepczynski, Fernando Salas, Sergio Santos, Joe Smith, Craig Stammen, Drew Storen, Josh Tomlin, Jordan Walden *, Brad Ziegler

 

Third Basemen: Daniel Descalso, Martin Prado, Justin Turner, Luis Valbuena

 

Catchers : Drew Butera, Jason Castro, A.J. Ellis, Ryan Hanigan*, Nick Hundley, Jonathan Lucroy *, Wilson Ramos, David Ross, Chris Stewart, Kurt Suzuki *, Josh Thole, Matt Wieters

 

DH: (not all listed) Edwin Encarnacion (1B), Jose Bautista (RF), Carlos Beltran (LF), Mark Trumbo (1B), Kendrys Morales* (1B), Adam Lind (1B), Matt Holiday *(LF), Michael Saunders (OF)

 

 

[moonslav59]

What MLB teams are in "rebuild mode" and may have players we need?

 

Here are the worst MLB teams by record (least wins):

 

59 MN

68 SDP, CIN, ATL & TBR

69 OAK & AZ

71 PHI

73 MIL

74 LAA

75 COL

78 CWS & PITT

79 MIA

81 KCR (apparently looking to cut salary)

 

 

[mvp 78]

What MLB teams are in "rebuild mode" and may have players we need?

 

Here are the worst MLB teams by record (least wins):

 

59 MN

68 SDP, CIN, ATL & TBR

69 OAK & AZ

71 PHI

73 MIL

74 LAA

75 COL

78 CWS & PITT

79 MIA

81 KCR (apparently looking to cut salary)

 

 

 

MN unload the guys they didn't want during the season.

No one will trade with SD this offseason.

Do the Sox really want Votto from CIN? I don't see them moving any of their young arms.

There aren't too many guys on ATL that I'd be interested in. Adonis Garcia for 3b?

TB won't trade within the division.

Sonny Gray is toast and the A's roster is meager at best.

With all the changes in the front, I don't see AZ dumping many players. Though maybe they would be inclined to grab some Sox prospects that they are fond of? Could have inner track on this one.

PHI has some great young arms, but I don't see them moving them at all.

Would MIL want to sell high on Hernan Perez? He would be good IF depth. Does Zach Davies have a lot of upside?

LAA only has Trout.

COL has some great bats, but not at the position we would need. This team is on the upswing and I don't think they'd trade any young guys.

CWS has two aces that we'll talk about all winter.

PTT has some intriguing pieces like Kang. I think they still see themselves as being in a window to win now with McCutchen.

Does MIA want to move Stanton? Would Sox want that contract at DH?

KC has some great arms, but I'm not sold on them dumping what brought them a title.

[Dojji]

I can't decide of KC is likely to marshal its forces for one last hurrah, or sell off the 1 year guys now to maximize prospect return and line up for a new window in 5 years. They don't have a deep young core right now, but they do still have Hosmer and Perez, and that's a good start at either a last hurrah or a full rebuild.

 

if I was GM I'd seriously consider the latter with a ring giving me the time and credibility to make that kind of longterm move now, but I could definitely understand KC trying for one last bite at the apple before the core falls apart entirely.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dojji, they're gonna deal off expensive redundancies and see if their current roster and win in 2017. If they falter out of the gate, Hosmer and Moustakas will be available for a HUGE price

[moonslav59]

MN unload the guys they didn't want during the season.

I guess they tried to move E Sanatan but wanted too much.

 

No one will trade with SD this offseason.

Not sure about that. They will be under a microscope.

 

Do the Sox really want Votto from CIN? I don't see them moving any of their young arms.

Agreed, but I would give Cincy Pablo as a salary balancer and a bunch of prospects for Votto.

 

There aren't too many guys on ATL that I'd be interested in. Adonis Garcia for 3B?

With Moncada and Devers, I think we may look for a shorter term 3B solution, if any.

 

TB won't trade within the division.

It's difficult but not impossible

 

Sonny Gray is toast and the A's roster is meager at best.

Gray may comeback, but I'd like to see it before we trade for him, and if we wait for that, his stock will go up.

 

With all the changes in the front, I don't see AZ dumping many players. Though maybe they would be inclined to grab some Sox prospects that they are fond of? Could have inner track on this one.

Jake Lamb will not be traded, but it's fun to dream. Goldschmidt is a dream, for sure. I don't see any pen pieces that jump out there. Greinke could be available, if they go rebuild mode, but can we afford him and Price? Do we want to pay that much? I think not.

 

PHI has some great young arms, but I don't see them moving them at all.

Well, maybe for some young bats like Moncada, Devers, Basabe, S Travis or Swihart.

 

Would MIL want to sell high on Hernan Perez? He would be good IF depth. Does Zach Davies have a lot of upside?

They do have some nice pen arms. I like Davies, but at 23, he'd be costly. Maybe if we take Garza off their books ($17.5M owed for 2017 and 2018 buyout), they'd lessen the return demanded.

 

LAA only has Trout.

Maybe Cam Bedrosian?

 

COL has some great bats, but not at the position we would need. This team is on the upswing and I don't think they'd trade any young guys.

I also don't trust offensive stats fro COL players, unless their road OPS care solid.

 

CWS has two aces that we'll talk about all winter.

They also have David Robertson and Todd Frazier, and if they go into rebuild mode, they'll look to trade their salaries and short-term commitments too.

 

PTT has some intriguing pieces like Kang. I think they still see themselves as being in a window to win now with McCutchen.

Too bad we couldn't get AM

 

Does MIA want to move Stanton? Would Sox want that contract at DH?

Probably No and No, but if we included JBj or Beni in the deal, he could play LF.

 

KC has some great arms, but I'm not sold on them dumping what brought them a title.

Word is they want to cut salary. Maybe Wade Davis?

[moonslav59]

If you look at our biggest three weak areas and the free agent market, which of these players has the best chance of being a Red Sox next year?

 

RP: Jansen, Chapman Melancon

3B: Turner

DH: Encarnacion, Beltran, Bautista

 

[Eddy Ballgame]

If you look at our biggest three weak areas and the free agent market, which of these players has the best chance of being a Red Sox next year?

 

RP: Jansen, Chapman Melancon

3B: Turner

DH: Encarnacion, Beltran, Bautista

 

I think it's one of the DHs in a landslide. The rumors are that the Sox won't go after Jansen, Chapman or Melancon and I don't think that there's a shot in hell that they are even involved with those guys. The Drew Storens and Boon Logan's of the world will be had at reasonable money and the upside is there. The Sox aren't going 4/65 on a reliever. Chapman and Jansen may get more.

 

Turner is a gamer and would seem to have the perfect makeup for Boston, but they have too much invested at 3rd and Turner supposedly loves LA. No chance.

 

The Sox will sign a DH. It's just a matter of who.

[moonslav59]

I think it's one of the DHs in a landslide. The rumors are that the Sox won't go after Jansen, Chapman or Melancon and I don't think that there's a shot in hell that they are even involved with those guys. The Drew Storens and Boon Logan's of the world will be had at reasonable money and the upside is there. The Sox aren't going 4/65 on a reliever. Chapman and Jansen may get more.

 

Turner is a gamer and would seem to have the perfect makeup for Boston, but they have too much invested at 3rd and Turner supposedly loves LA. No chance.

 

The Sox will sign a DH. It's just a matter of who.

 

You're probably right. The one way I can see us getting Turner is if we trade Moncada and or Devers as part of the blockbuster needed to get Sale or Quintana.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com has this on Kopech..

 

Kopech's strong Arizona Fall League performance has earned him a spot on the 2016 Fall Stars roster. Over his first three starts, Kopech has impressed, throwing 10 innings with a 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 12 strikeouts to one walk. He is coming off a 2016 regular season where he dominated to the tune of a 2.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 86 strikeouts to 33 walks over 56 1/3 innings.

 

It is no surprise he continues to receive national attention. Both Pleskoff and ESPN's Keith Law had very positive write-ups on Kopech's recent starts. Like everyone, Law was impressed by the upper-90s velocity and said he had "top-of-the-rotation" potential, but also stated that he needed to work on his command and his inconsistent secondaries. Pleskoff, a former Astros and Mariners scout, was much more glowing in his report, ultimately giving him a 60-grade ("all-star quality") grade.

[S5Dewey]

Soxprospects.com has this on Kopech..

 

Kopech's strong Arizona Fall League performance has earned him a spot on the 2016 Fall Stars roster. Over his first three starts, Kopech has impressed, throwing 10 innings with a 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 12 strikeouts to one walk. He is coming off a 2016 regular season where he dominated to the tune of a 2.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 86 strikeouts to 33 walks over 56 1/3 innings.

 

It is no surprise he continues to receive national attention. Both Pleskoff and ESPN's Keith Law had very positive write-ups on Kopech's recent starts. Like everyone, Law was impressed by the upper-90s velocity and said he had "top-of-the-rotation" potential, but also stated that he needed to work on his command and his inconsistent secondaries. Pleskoff, a former Astros and Mariners scout, was much more glowing in his report, ultimately giving him a 60-grade ("all-star quality") grade.

 

Pretty obviously I haven't seen Kopech pitch (have you? ) but here's something I learned from watching Kimbrel this year. It's not how many K's a pitcher has, it's whether he can find the strike zone with his pitches. In much of 2016 Kimbrel was able to get away with not finding the zone because he was a reliever and hitters didn't get a good chance to look at his pitches. If Kopech is going to be that TOTR pitcher that Plescoff says he can be he needs to be able to throw his heat for strikes or he's going to just be another Henry Owens.

 

I'm not saying that Kopech can't find the zone, I'm just saying that those 12/1 and 86/33 K/BB ratio may be misleading, especially when a respected scout says that he needs to work on his command.

[moonslav59]

Big surprise...

 

The Red Sox have declined catcher Ryan Hanigan’s $3.75MM option for 2017 in favor of an $800K buyout, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reported earlier Thursday that the Red Sox were likely to let Hanigan go.

 

-MLBTR

[moonslav59]

Royals give Wade Davis his $10M option.

[Wade Boggs]

You're probably right. The one way I can see us getting Turner is if we trade Moncada and or Devers as part of the blockbuster needed to get Sale or Quintana.

 

Desmond he can play a lot positions . They can put Bradley in a trade for Sale.

 

Desmond

Sale

Robertson

Beltran

 

It sounds like a plan. Sale gives you the #1 starter.. Desmond might set the loss of Bradley.... Beltran could DH maybe a 100 games and play some field. I would run this by Ramirez though . They will need the good Hanley at 1B. Robertson gives you a decent arm in the pen. His salary is high though. I like EE but I don't know. I'm stuck in the middle on that. I like the idea of it, but I don't know about the fit. The Desmond thought sounds good though IMO

[Bellhorn04]

Buch's option is picked up.

[moonslav59]

Buch's option is picked up.

 

Yup...

 

Drellich also writes that the Red Sox plan to pick up Clay Buchholz’s $13.5MM club option, and Heyman tweeted that the team will indeed do so. Buchholz had a $500K buyout on the option, so the decision boiled down to a $13MM call for Boston.

[moonslav59]

Here's how Sox pitchers rank by WAR. Remember, 30 teams x 12 pitchers per team = 360 pitchers. Starters and relievers...

 

6 Porcello 5.2

13 Price 4.5

40 Pomeranz 3.0

52 Wright 2.8

131 Ziegler 1,3

138 Kimbrel 1.2

139 ERod 1.2

192 Ross 0.7

218 Buch 0.5

227 Barnes 0.4

241 Hembree 0.3

 

 

.

[moonslav59]

Here's how Sox players rank in the "offense" category of fangraph's value page 150+ PAs min. (13 players x 30 teams=390)

 

8 Betts 40.7

9 Ortiz 37.1

41 JBJ 18.8

44 HanRam 18.6

47 Bogey 17.7

64 Pedey 12.7

99 Young 7.6

106 Leon 6.8

218 Holt -2.0

326 Shaw -9.5

353 Vaz -11.7

 

[S5Dewey]

Here's how Sox players rank in the "offense" category of fangraph's value page 150+ PAs min. (13 players x 30 teams=390)

 

8 Betts 40.7

9 Ortiz 37.1

41 JBJ 18.8

44 HanRam 18.6

47 Bogey 17.7

64 Pedey 12.7

99 Young 7.6

106 Leon 6.8

218 Holt -2.0

326 Shaw -9.5

353 Vaz -11.7

 

 

Hmmm... interesting stuff. So JBJ is ranked higher offensively than Bogaerts, and I think most of us would agree that JBJ is better defensively at his position that XBO is at SS. If we go by this then trading Bogaerts would weaken the team more than trading JBJ would.

 

And be clear, I'm not advocating trading either of them. I just finding it interesting that sometimes we like our 'stats' and sometimes we don't. We like them when they confirm what we think (XBo is more valuable than JBJ) but we don't like them as much when they show something we don't like (statistically JBJ is more vaulable than XBo).

[moonslav59]

Hmmm... interesting stuff. So JBJ is ranked higher offensively than Bogaerts, and I think most of us would agree that JBJ is better defensively at his position that XBO is at SS. If we go by this then trading Bogaerts would weaken the team more than trading JBJ would.

 

And be clear, I'm not advocating trading either of them. I just finding it interesting that sometimes we like our 'stats' and sometimes we don't. We like them when they confirm what we think (XBo is more valuable than JBJ) but we don't like them as much when they show something we don't like (statistically JBJ is more vaulable than XBo).

 

The offensive category also includes base running. Both JBJ and Bogey get good scores (Bogey 6.1 and JBJ 5.2), but Bogey is shown to be better. That means JBJ is even more of a better hitter:

 

Batting:

 

47.0 Ortiz

30.8 Betts

20.0 HanRam

17.2 Pedey

13.6 JBJ

11.6 Bogey

7.9 Leon

6.7 Young

2.9 Beni

-0.2 Hern

-0.3 Rutl

-0.5 Swi

-1.5 Brentz

-5.3 Holt

-8.1 Shaw

-8.4 Hill

-10.8 Vaz & Han

[oldtimer]

The offensive category also includes base running. Both JBJ and Bogey get good scores (Bogey 6.1 and JBJ 5.2), but Bogey is shown to be better. That means JBJ is even more of a better hitter:

 

Batting:

 

47.0 Ortiz

30.8 Betts

20.0 HanRam

17.2 Pedey

13.6 JBJ

11.6 Bogey

7.9 Leon

6.7 Young

2.9 Beni

-0.2 Hern

-0.3 Rutl

-0.5 Swi

-1.5 Brentz

-5.3 Holt

-8.1 Shaw

-8.4 Hill

-10.8 Vaz & Han

 

When you look at full season ratings it masks the weakness in some of the players second halfs. Who will we get next year, the full season stat player or the second half stat player? Certainly JBJ. Bogey and even more so Leon had weak second halfs. Shaw had a terrible second half offensively, so it dragged his overall down.

[moonslav59]

When you look at full season ratings it masks the weakness in some of the players second halfs. Who will we get next year, the full season stat player or the second half stat player? Certainly JBJ. Bogey and even more so Leon had weak second halfs. Shaw had a terrible second half offensively, so it dragged his overall down.

 

Here are the batting numbers for the second half:

 

21.2 Betts

14.0 HanRam

7.9 Ortiz

7.2 Pedey

3.7 Beni

2.9 Young

-0.8 Bogey

-1.3 Moncada

-1.5 leon

-1.6 Brentz

-1.7 JBJ

-2.8 Holt

-3.0 Holaday

-3.7 Hanigan

-7.0 AHill

-10.1 TShaw

 

Overall, our 3B group had a -21.8 Batting

 

-2.0 first half

-19.7 second half

 

We don't know for sure if the second half numbers are more indicative of 2017 projections than overall numbers. Some players, like Betts, always seem to do better in the second half. Some often do worse.

[Dojji]

Pretty obviously I haven't seen Kopech pitch (have you? ) but here's something I learned from watching Kimbrel this year. It's not how many K's a pitcher has, it's whether he can find the strike zone with his pitches.

 

Not just that. Curt Schilling demonstrated that it's the ability to throw a clutch strike whenever you need one that will keep getting starters out of trouble even when most of their best stuff has gone the way of the dinosaur. Pitching 3 wins in the 2007 playoffs with his arm held together by 2 fraying threads and about a gallon of Cortisone -- that happened because he was able to throw key strikes when he needed them, that's always been Schilling's calling card and the most important skill a starter can possibly have. Koji demonstrates that it isn't just starters, either.

 

So yeah, it's not necessarily just about finding the strike zone in general (strike/ball ratio) but about being able to make exactly the pitch you need exactly when you need it. A hard thrower will only go so far if he can't learn to do that (see also Beckett, Josh)