A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Kimmi]

I think that's where I was going with my post. The pressure is now all on the Cubs to win the next game - the simply CANNOT allow themselves to get into the position where they need to sweep three games from the Dodgers with the Dodger's pitching staff being what it is.

 

IMO the Jays have a better chance of coming back from 3-1 than do the Cubs.

 

All the pressure is on the Cubs now. You're right how that one game can change the whole complexion of the series.

 

Go Cubs!

[Kimmi]

f*** the Cubs. f*** the Cubs. f*** the Cubs. f*** yeah yeah...

 

Go Cubs!

[S5Dewey]

Go Cubs!

 

I'll tell ya what.. I'm betting that there are a bunch of TV executives who are saying "Go Cubs!". Without the Cubbies a WS of Cleveland vs. Los Angeles could be a ratings disaster.

[Nick]

As a 11 year old from Japan, Rico Petrocelli was my favorite American player.

[moonslav59]

I was at a game. Rico ran once and someone hit a libe drive off Dick Pole's face. The ball rolled towards 3B and Rico ran right past it on his way to check on Dick. He was a classy player.

 

I also remember, Rick Burleson (maybe?) running into foul territory to grab the ball and keep the runner at 2B.

 

Maybe my memory is faulty, but I think it happened that way. Anyone else remember that game?

 

[moonslav59]

How did our positions rank with fielding this year?

 

4th Catching

others by UZR/150

1st second base

3rd right field

10th first Base

11th center field

15th third base

17th short stop

26th left field

 

How about offense (using fangraph's offense score on value page):

2nd RF

4th CF

4th SS

11th 2B

11th LF

15th 1B

19th Catcher

30th 3B

[S5Dewey]

How did our positions rank with fielding this year?

 

4th Catching

others by UZR/150

1st second base

3rd right field

10th first Base

11th center field

15th third base

17th short stop

26th left field

 

How about offense (using fangraph's offense score on value page):

2nd RF

4th CF

4th SS

11th 2B

11th LF

15th 1B

19th Catcher

30th 3B

 

My quick take-away from this:

 

JBJ is 4th on offense, but 11th defensively???

And all this time I thought defense was his strength.

 

The rest of them I can buy into pretty easily.

[moonslav59]

My quick take-away from this:

 

JBJ is 4th on offense, but 11th defensively???

And all this time I thought defense was his strength.

 

The rest of them I can buy into pretty easily.

 

I was thinking the same thing, but UZR/150 suggests using larger sample sizes than just 1 year, esecially for positions that don't get as much action as the IF.

 

JBJ places 8th out of 45 in UZR/150 since 2014. (5th out of 17 with 2500 innings)...a little better.

[moonslav59]

I've touched on this before, but looking at our starting pitchers by first half and second half, we can see some remarkable rankings.

 

MLB Rank in ERA-

 

3) Wright 61 (1st half)

5) Porcello 59 (2nd half)

6) Pomeranz 62 (1st half)

17) ERod 73 (2nd half)

18) Buch 73 (2nd half)

29) Price 81 (2nd half)

33) Porcello 83 (1st half)

53) Price 98 (1st half)

 

That's 6 starters with a top 30 ERA- in MLB over half a season.

 

That may be an overly optimistic view of what we might have in 2017, but it is pretty amazing.

[S5Dewey]

I've touched on this before, but looking at our starting pitchers by first half and second half, we can see some remarkable rankings.

 

MLB Rank in ERA-

 

3) Wright 61 (1st half)

5) Porcello 59 (2nd half)

6) Pomeranz 62 (1st half)

17) ERod 73 (2nd half)

18) Buch 73 (2nd half)

29) Price 81 (2nd half)

33) Porcello 83 (1st half)

53) Price 98 (1st half)

 

That's 6 starters with a top 30 ERA- in MLB over half a season.

 

That may be an overly optimistic view of what we might have in 2017, but it is pretty amazing.

 

My guess is that some of that might be due to the improvement in the bullpen and not letting inherited runners score.

[moonslav59]

My guess is that some of that might be due to the improvement in the bullpen and not letting inherited runners score.

 

Well, the pen didn't stop Wright from having the best half out of any of our starters, but I do think it probably helped the second half numbers somewhat.

 

If you think of a top 30 starter as a number one starter (30 teams have a number 1), then we had 6 different starters have a number one type half season. Porcello nearly had two halves ads a number one, and Price had one as a low number one and one as a low number two.

 

Pretty impressive!

[Nick]

Well, the pen didn't stop Wright from having the best half out of any of our starters, but I do think it probably helped the second half numbers somewhat.

 

If you think of a top 30 starter as a number one starter (30 teams have a number 1), then we had 6 different starters have a number one type half season. Porcello nearly had two halves ads a number one, and Price had one as a low number one and one as a low number two.

 

Pretty impressive!

 

This is why I don't see DD making a play for White Sox pitchers. Now if they come to us with a reasonable player requests, then you'd have to listen. Even solidifying our bullpen looks not to be daunting as originally looked.

 

We are in much better shape than last winter.

[Dojji]

I'll tell ya what.. I'm betting that there are a bunch of TV executives who are saying "Go Cubs!". Without the Cubbies a WS of Cleveland vs. Los Angeles could be a ratings disaster.

Umm... you do realize LA is a much larger media market than Chitown, and much less likely to tune into baseball anyway regardless of who's playing than a stereotypical Cubs fan would be..

[S5Dewey]

Umm... you do realize LA is a much larger media market than Chitown, and much less likely to tune into baseball anyway regardless of who's playing than a stereotypical Cubs fan would be..

 

I can't decide if you're agreeing with me, or disagreeing.

[Dojji]

Disagreeing. From a ratings standpoint, LA winning would be superior in all likelihood.

[sk7326]

My quick take-away from this:

 

JBJ is 4th on offense, but 11th defensively???

And all this time I thought defense was his strength.

 

The rest of them I can buy into pretty easily.

 

His metrics got off to a slow start ... and after all, one's season defensive data is not enough to make a conclusion about the player. He had a rough start to the year - but he is clearly a plus CF.

[sk7326]

I was thinking the same thing, but UZR/150 suggests using larger sample sizes than just 1 year, esecially for positions that don't get as much action as the IF.

 

JBJ places 8th out of 45 in UZR/150 since 2014. (5th out of 17 with 2500 innings)...a little better.

 

UZR says to use multi-season samples to make an assessment on the player ... but the small sample can accurately depict what happened during that time. i.e. while an 0 for 10 stretch does not reflect on whether a hitter is good, it does accurately show that the 10 at bats did not go well.

[sk7326]

I'll tell ya what.. I'm betting that there are a bunch of TV executives who are saying "Go Cubs!". Without the Cubbies a WS of Cleveland vs. Los Angeles could be a ratings disaster.

 

Perhaps - but really ratings will probably be mildly disappointing ... in this day and age most of the sports outside the NFL are regional in interest.

 

The four LCS participants were all great stories - all have long championship droughts. I mean the Guardians made only their 6th World Series ever - only the White Sox have fewer among the original American League teams. And while they are going to on-paper underdogs against whomever - if they keep allowing under 2 runs a game, nobody is beating them.

[S5Dewey]

Disagreeing. From a ratings standpoint, LA winning would be superior in all likelihood.

 

Uh-uh. Nobody outside of LA cares if LA wins. The Cubs OTOH currently have a nationwide following due to their ineptness in the past and their immediate success. I mean, how can you NOT like the Cubs better than the Dodgers???

[S5Dewey]

Perhaps - but really ratings will probably be mildly disappointing ... in this day and age most of the sports outside the NFL are regional in interest.

 

The four LCS participants were all great stories - all have long championship droughts. I mean the Guardians made only their 6th World Series ever - only the White Sox have fewer among the original American League teams. And while they are going to on-paper underdogs against whomever - if they keep allowing under 2 runs a game, nobody is beating them.

 

There certainly is THAT!!

[illinoisredsox]

Perhaps - but really ratings will probably be mildly disappointing ... in this day and age most of the sports outside the NFL are regional in interest.

 

The four LCS participants were all great stories - all have long championship droughts. I mean the Guardians made only their 6th World Series ever - only the White Sox have fewer among the original American League teams. And while they are going to on-paper underdogs against whomever - if they keep allowing under 2 runs a game, nobody is beating them.

 

Actually, the Guardians (1920, 1948, 1954, 1995, 1997, 2016) are now tied with the White Sox (1901, 1906, 1917, 1919, 1959, 2005) and the Senators/Twins (1924, 1925, 1933, 1965, 1987, 1991) for the fewest pennants among the AL original teams at 6.

[moonslav59]

Uh-uh. Nobody outside of LA cares if LA wins. The Cubs OTOH currently have a nationwide following due to their ineptness in the past and their immediate success. I mean, how can you NOT like the Cubs better than the Dodgers???

 

I'm not even sure that many people in LA care.

[moonslav59]

Let's look at our 2017 player splits from this year and their career and the average of the two:

 

OPS vs RHPs

AVG--Career/2016

.889-- .861/.917 Betts

.823-- .745/.902 Bradley

.820-- .844/.796 Ramirez

.812-- .797/.827 Pedroia

.791-- .835/.744 ('15) Sandoval

.756-- .751/.762 T Shaw

.751-- .717/.785 Bogaerts

.737-- .707/.766 Young

.733-- .704/.762 Holt

.727 (career) Swihart

.704-- .653/.764 Leon

.584 (career) Vazquez

 

OPS vs LHPs

Career/2016

1.005-- .913/1.097 Ramirez

.912-- .846/.999 Young

.906-- .750/1.062 Leon

.860-- .847/.873 Bogaerts

.842-- .761/.599 T Shaw

.823-- .832/.814 Betts

.818-- .847/.812 Pedroia

.673-- .681/.665 Bradley

.673 (career) Swihart

.667 (career) Vazquez

.569-- .673/.465 ('15) Sandoval

.529-- .709/.350 Holt

 

Some big differentials here!

 

[Kimmi]

My quick take-away from this:

 

JBJ is 4th on offense, but 11th defensively???

And all this time I thought defense was his strength.

 

The rest of them I can buy into pretty easily.

 

The stats that Moon quoted are team stats, not player stats. The team stats at CF include Castillo's 9 innings, for which he had a whopping 127 UZR/150, Benintendi's 30 innings with a -35 UZR/150, and Young's 25 innings with a -27.7 UZR/150.

 

Bradley's individual defensive stats place him 4th among qualifying CFs with a 5.1 UZR/150 and also 4th in DRS with +11 runs.

[moonslav59]

The stats that Moon quoted are team stats, not player stats. The team stats at CF include Castillo's 9 innings, for which he had a whopping 127 UZR/150, Benintendi's 30 innings with a -35 UZR/150, and Young's 25 innings with a -27.7 UZR/150.

 

Bradley's individual defensive stats place him 4th among qualifying CFs with a 5.1 UZR/150 and also 4th in DRS with +11 runs.

 

4th out of the 17th that "qualify", so that is not the same as saying 4th out of 30 teams starters. If you lower the innings to 500 in order to get a sample size of 30, then JBJ finishes 10th out of 30 individually.

 

DRS is a stat greatly influenced by innings played, if we had a DRS/150, JBJ would sink in the rankings. For example, he has 11 runs saaved in 1375 innings, while these guys would surely pass him in DRS/150:

Broxton 9/511

Marisnik 9/570

Cain 8/615'

 

This would place JBJ 8th.

 

These rankings don't seem to jive with the eye test. Maybe the way JBJ makes hard plays look easy influences some of the scoring, but UZR/150 is not supposed to work that way.

 

The 2014-2016 numbers place JBJ at 7th in UZR/150 (+11.3). IN DRS, he ranks 8th, but he'd move up one, if he had the same innings and down 2 as welll, so he's be ninth. Those numbers still seem a little low.

 

He was 3rd in UZR/150 from 2014 to 2015, so obviously something changed this year. (He would have ranked 5th in DRS/150.) I didn't see it with my eyes.

[oldtimer]

Let's look at our 2017 player splits from this year and their career and the average of the two:

 

OPS vs RHPs

AVG--Career/2016

.889-- .861/.917 Betts

.823-- .745/.902 Bradley

.820-- .844/.796 Ramirez

.812-- .797/.827 Pedroia

.791-- .835/.744 ('15) Sandoval

.756-- .751/.762 T Shaw

.751-- .717/.785 Bogaerts

.737-- .707/.766 Young

.733-- .704/.762 Holt

.727 (career) Swihart

.704-- .653/.764 Leon

.584 (career) Vazquez

 

OPS vs LHPs

Career/2016

1.005-- .913/1.097 Ramirez

.912-- .846/.999 Young

.906-- .750/1.062 Leon

.860-- .847/.873 Bogaerts

.842-- .761/.599 T Shaw

.823-- .832/.814 Betts

.818-- .847/.812 Pedroia

.673-- .681/.665 Bradley

.673 (career) Swihart

.667 (career) Vazquez

.569-- .673/.465 ('15) Sandoval

.529-- .709/.350 Holt

 

Some big differentials here!

 

 

Maybe leon should give up switch hitting?

[oldtimer]

4th out of the 17th that "qualify", so that is not the same as saying 4th out of 30 teams starters. If you lower the innings to 500 in order to get a sample size of 30, then JBJ finishes 10th out of 30 individually.

 

DRS is a stat greatly influenced by innings played, if we had a DRS/150, JBJ would sink in the rankings. For example, he has 11 runs saaved in 1375 innings, while these guys would surely pass him in DRS/150:

Broxton 9/511

Marisnik 9/570

Cain 8/615'

 

This would place JBJ 8th.

 

These rankings don't seem to jive with the eye test. Maybe the way JBJ makes hard plays look easy influences some of the scoring, but UZR/150 is not supposed to work that way.

 

The 2014-2016 numbers place JBJ at 7th in UZR/150 (+11.3). IN DRS, he ranks 8th, but he'd move up one, if he had the same innings and down 2 as welll, so he's be ninth. Those numbers still seem a little low.

 

He was 3rd in UZR/150 from 2014 to 2015, so obviously something changed this year. (He would have ranked 5th in DRS/150.) I didn't see it with my eyes.

 

To my eyes, JBJ has looked great defensively. He gets a great jump, has the speed to reach most balls and has a very strong and accurate arm. Maybe what hurts some of his ratings is his tendency to try to make a great throw when no chance exits.

[Bellhorn04]

I read a number of comments late in the year about JBJ making bad or ill-advised throws.

[S5Dewey]

I read a number of comments late in the year about JBJ making bad or ill-advised throws.

 

Yeah. And if that's what someone can find "wrong" with him that's fine. I saw Kris Bryant hit a ball to deep CF where the CF misplayed what would have been a routine fly ball for JBJ into a double that scored two runs.

 

I'll take JBJ's ability to run down balls in exchange for a couple of errant throws every day, and three times on Sunday!

 

I find it amazing that some of us now expect JBJ to make a perfect throw every time on throws that most OF's wouldn't even attempt. And when it doesn't work out it's defined as a "weakness".

Edited October 22, 2016 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

Maybe leon should give up switch hitting?

 

Maybe just don't start him vs RHPs.