A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Bellhorn04]

As I said before, I thought the value from Kelly/Craig would be greater than that of Lackey, but I get what you're saying.

 

I really do have to wonder if there is any truth to the speculation that Lackey would not have played for the Sox at league minimum, and more or less forced his trade. Either way, it still goes back to the FO screwing up the Lester negotiations big time.

 

We'll probably never know why they felt they should trade Lackey, but it does seem that he must have given some indications of wanting to leave, threatening not to honor the deal etc.

[S5Dewey]

As I said before, I thought the value from Kelly/Craig would be greater than that of Lackey, but I get what you're saying.

 

I really do have to wonder if there is any truth to the speculation that Lackey would not have played for the Sox at league minimum, and more or less forced his trade. Either way, it still goes back to the FO screwing up the Lester negotiations big time.

 

The only quote I ever saw regarding that came from his agent. He said only that if the Sox insisted on holding Lackey to that contract that he (Lackey) could consider retirement. The radio wags then translated that into "Lackey will retire next year if the Sox try to hold him to his contract". [paraphrased] And it took off from there.

 

Lackey also said after being traded to St. Louis that he'd honor that contract, something the Cards didn't hold him to.

[Spudboy]

We'll probably never know why they felt they should trade Lackey, but it does seem that he must have given some indications of wanting to leave, threatening not to honor the deal etc.

 

Hmm. All types of speculation about why he was shown the door.

 

I can't get past the idea that if the Sox had offered an extension approximately in line with his current contract that he would have stayed in Boston. Mr. Ed smile and all.

 

Money has a way of fixing things.

 

I've seen plenty of FO f***-ups in Boston over the years. Red drafting Clarence Glover and Acie Earl were doozies.

 

Purging Lester and Lackey take the cake in recent years.

[Spudboy]

The only quote I ever saw regarding that came from his agent. He said only that if the Sox insisted on holding Lackey to that contract that he (Lackey) could consider retirement. The radio wags then translated that into "Lackey will retire next year if the Sox try to hold him to his contract". [paraphrased] And it took off from there.

 

Lackey also said after being traded to St. Louis that he'd honor that contract, something the Cards didn't hold him to.

 

This is consistent with what I remember. The radio and nightly show talking heads made a big deal of this when it seemed that Lackey was mum on the subject.

[Bellhorn04]

Hmm. All types of speculation about why he was shown the door.

 

I can't get past the idea that if the Sox had offered an extension approximately in line with his current contract that he would have stayed in Boston. Mr. Ed smile and all.

 

Money has a way of fixing things.

 

I've seen plenty of FO f***-ups in Boston over the years. Red drafting Clarence Glover and Acie Earl were doozies.

 

Purging Lester and Lackey take the cake in recent years.

 

And I agree with that.

[S5Dewey]

Hmm. All types of speculation about why he was shown the door.

 

I can't get past the idea that if the Sox had offered an extension approximately in line with his current contract that he would have stayed in Boston. Mr. Ed smile and all.

 

Money has a way of fixing things.

 

I've seen plenty of FO f***-ups in Boston over the years. Red drafting Clarence Glover and Acie Earl were doozies.

 

Purging Lester and Lackey take the cake in recent years.

 

Agree, Spud. I can remember saying, "I can't believe this is happening".

 

The Sox gutted their pitching staff, signed a bunch of mediocre pitchers, and then sold it to the fans as having improved the team. They persuaded the fans that Porcillo was every bit as good as the three guys at the top of the Tiger's order - he just didn't get a chance to pitch, Wade Miley was an 'innings eater', and Masterson was going to morph from being mediocre to being a legitimate #2. Even more incredible to me is how many fans bought into it!

[moonslav59]

Purging Lester and Lackey take the cake in recent years.

 

When you add to this the horrible signings like Crawford, Pablo and Castillo (maybe Price too), you really put yourself in a hole.

 

Had we used all this money to sign Scherzer, Andrew Miller, Cueto or JA Happ, and a better bat than Pablo, we might not be talking about Lester & Lackey very much.

[moonslav59]

Agree, Spud. I can remember saying, "I can't believe this is happening".

 

The Sox gutted their pitching staff, signed a bunch of mediocre pitchers, and then sold it to the fans as having improved the team. They persuaded the fans that Porcillo was every bit as good as the three guys at the top of the Tiger's order - he just didn't get a chance to pitch, Wade Miley was an 'innings eater', and Masterson was going to morph from being mediocre to being a legitimate #2. Even more incredible to me is how many fans bought into it!

 

Not many fans thought our staff was going to be as good, but they (not me) might have thought HanRam and Pablo would boost the offense enough to make it up.

 

[S5Dewey]

Purging Lester and Lackey take the cake in recent years.

 

When you add to this the horrible signings like Crawford, Pablo and Castillo (maybe Price too), you really put yourself in a hole.

 

Had we used all this money to sign Scherzer, Andrew Miller, Cueto or JA Happ, and a better bat than Pablo, we might not be talking about Lester & Lackey very much.

 

The thing is, these things were all predictable, too.

 

The day they signed Crawford I said, "Ok.. but why?" We had a CF and had no place for Crawford to play. IMO Crawford was signed so the Yankees wouldn't get him. Consequently they overpaid for him.

 

Sandoval never was anything more than a slightly better than mediocre 3B who had a good World Series. I believe he was signed so the Sox could make a splash.

 

I never understood signing Castillo, at least not for the money it cost them. Why would you sign a guy who hadn't played baseball in over a year, and even then he wasn't playing at the ML level? I mean, I don't doubt that Cuban baseball is nice, but simply the talent pool from which Cuba had to choose would lead you to believe that the Cuban "stars" would be as good as the MLB stars? And Castillo did get "star' money.

[S5Dewey]

Not many fans thought our staff was going to be as good, but they (not me) might have thought HanRam and Pablo would boost the offense enough to make it up.

 

 

I think the more serious fans (like the ones who post here! lol) saw it coming, but the more casual fans believed that these trades/acquisitions had to be a good idea - because the FO did them! And they kept coming to the ballpark even when it became obvious that our Titanic was sinking.

[moonslav59]

The thing is, these things were all predictable, too.

 

The day they signed Crawford I said, "Ok.. but why?" We had a CF and had no place for Crawford to play. IMO Crawford was signed so the Yankees wouldn't get him. Consequently they overpaid for him.

 

Sandoval never was anything more than a slightly better than mediocre 3B who had a good World Series. I believe he was signed so the Sox could make a splash.

 

I never understood signing Castillo, at least not for the money it cost them. Why would you sign a guy who hadn't played baseball in over a year, and even then he wasn't playing at the ML level? I mean, I don't doubt that Cuban baseball is nice, but simply the talent pool from which Cuba had to choose would lead you to believe that the Cuban "stars" would be as good as the MLB stars? And Castillo did get "star' money.

 

I'm not trying to defend these moves, and the CC signing really angered me. I said at the time, he was a "glorified platoon player" with numbers vs LHPs that would have made him a platoon player with Boston all those years in TB. I hated the deal. I think they knew Ellsbury was going to get paid by someone else more than what we planned to offer.

 

Castillo was highly regarded by many scouts and baseball people. Several Cubans were having good seasons out of the gate, and I think Boston wanted to "cash in" on the new craze.

 

Maybe they thought Pablo would be like a lesser Papi. Big in big moments and average in others. I didn't get it. I thought we should have put HanRam at 3B, when we signed him.

 

When you let big named players go, who end up having great years afterwards, you at least have to make some sort of sense with what you used the money for. Porcello would have been a great replacement for Lackey, but not for Lester. Scherzer might have been a good replacement for Lester, but at much more of a cost.

 

The CC signing forced us to trade AGon, which to me wasn't as bad as many felt it was.

 

We have a mighty hill to climb now that Papi is gone.

 

There's nobody left from the 2004 championship. Only Pedey and Buch are left over from the 2007 season, and Buch only pitched 23 innings that season. The next most senior players on this team are Wright, Vazquez and Holt added to the 40 man roster back in 2012. There is a lot of work to be done, but I do think we have an excellent core of young players and vets to build on. No big player is leaving after 2017 (just Young & Buch) and not many after 20.18 either (Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross). This alone can be very helpful, although I wish Pablo, Castillo and Craig's contracts were already over with.

 

We ave some duplicated values and some tough choices to make. We absolutely have to get these choices right to have a good chance at winning another ring real soon.

 

Do we keep Swihart or Vazquez? I doubt we can keep both, if we really want to upgrade elsewhere, but guessing wrong here could be catastrophic.

 

Do we sign EE for 4-5 years, Beltran for 2 years or let some sort of in-house solution formulate?

 

How do we address the loss of Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa to a pen that was already very shaky for much of 2016?

 

Do we stand pat with the 6 starters we have and hope 4-5 caan pitch like they did for a half season this year?

 

Porcello's second half (first half was good too)

Buch's second half

Price's second half

ERod's second half

Wright's first half

Pomeranz's first half

 

Lot's of question marks, but to me, fewer than last winter. Fewer but more pronounced- replace Papi, fix 3B and fix the pen.

 

 

[Spudboy]

The thing is, these things were all predictable, too.

 

The day they signed Crawford I said, "Ok.. but why?" We had a CF and had no place for Crawford to play. IMO Crawford was signed so the Yankees wouldn't get him. Consequently they overpaid for him.

 

Sandoval never was anything more than a slightly better than mediocre 3B who had a good World Series. I believe he was signed so the Sox could make a splash.

 

I never understood signing Castillo, at least not for the money it cost them. Why would you sign a guy who hadn't played baseball in over a year, and even then he wasn't playing at the ML level? I mean, I don't doubt that Cuban baseball is nice, but simply the talent pool from which Cuba had to choose would lead you to believe that the Cuban "stars" would be as good as the MLB stars? And Castillo did get "star' money.

 

Another post I agree with entirely.

 

I will add that back when Crawford was about to be signed, the consensus here on Talksox was that Jason Werth would have been close to an ideal fit. I add this because I want those who were not here to know the pulse of this board back then. I have to admit that getting Crawford made me happy as I saw him as an exciting world class athlete that could change games.

 

Sometimes I am wrong.

 

Another reason the signing and commitment to long term big money to Castillo was dumb was his age. They must have known that he would need some work in the minor leagues. How does that work when a guy is his age? He had very little exposure to MLB type pitching so his failure to immediately hit well should have surprised no one.

 

I don't buy that Castillo was a good idea that just did not work out. As with Fatboy, the commitment to this guy is hard to justify.

[Bellhorn04]

Lot's of question marks, but to me, fewer than last winter. Fewer but more pronounced- replace Papi, fix 3B and fix the pen.

 

And fixing 3B and fixing the pen aren't really that onerous.

 

Replacing Papi is a big deal.

 

Maybe the biggest concern is still the starting rotation though. Porcello is probably not going to duplicate 2016. Price-who knows what the deal is with this guy.

 

And our rotation still has that postseason monkey on their backs. We still have no starters that have ever won a postseason game as a starter. That's kind of weird. Some folks shrug it off, but I think it's a concern.

[a700hitter]

Another post I agree with entirely.

 

I will add that back when Crawford was about to be signed, the consensus here on Talksox was that Jason Werth would have been close to an ideal fit. I add this because I want those who were not here to know the pulse of this board back then. I have to admit that getting Crawford made me happy as I saw him as an exciting world class athlete that could change games.

 

Sometimes I am wrong.

 

Another reason the signing and commitment to long term big money to Castillo was dumb was his age. They must have known that he would need some work in the minor leagues. How does that work when a guy is his age? He had very little exposure to MLB type pitching so his failure to immediately hit well should have surprised no one.

 

I don't buy that Castillo was a good idea that just did not work out. As with Fatboy, the commitment to this guy is hard to justify.

Castillo was a mystery man. Very little was known about him except that he had no major tool. It was too much money to commit to an unknown who hadn't played competitively in more than a year.

[moonslav59]

The 40 man roster arranged by years of team control remaining:

last year of team control....

 

2017: Young, Buchholz & Abad (Hanigan if option is taken this winter)

 

2018: Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross (Price has an opt out & Ramirez a vesting option)

 

2019: Bogaerts, Porcello, Ramirez, Holt, Leon, Rutledge, Holaday & Workman

 

2020: Betts, Bradley, Wright, C Smith, Vazquez & Elias

 

2021: Pedroia

 

2022: Price (assuming he does not opt out after 2018)

 

Unknown last year due to arb schedule not being set yet:

ERod, Swihart, Benintendi, Moncada, Hernandez, Shaw, Barnes, Hembree, Scott, Owens, Johnson, Marrero, N Ramirez, Brentz, Jerez

 

Free Agents or retirees this year (5): Ortiz, Uehara, Ziegler, Tazawa & Hill

Options (2): Buchholz & Hanigan

60-Day DL (5): Swihart, C Smith, Sandoval, Rutledge & Workman

 

All the five 60 day DL players would take the place of the five departing players, and if we let Hanigan's option go, we'll have 39 players. Adding new players would mean trading or DFA'ing someone. Here's my list of those players, assuming no trades of better players:

 

1) Brentz (out of options)

2) Holaday (out of options)

3) Jerez

4) Noe Ramirez

5) Workman

 

Other marginal players out of options: Abad & Elias

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

And fixing 3B and fixing the pen aren't really that onerous.

 

Replacing Papi is a big deal.

 

Maybe the biggest concern is still the starting rotation though. Porcello is probably not going to duplicate 2016. Price-who knows what the deal is with this guy.

 

And our rotation still has that postseason monkey on their backs. We still have no starters that have ever won a postseason game as a starter. That's kind of weird. Some folks shrug it off, but I think it's a concern.

 

The FA market for good pen arms evaporates after Jansen, Chapman and Melancon. We may have to go the trade route to upgrade the pen.

 

3B is hard to figure out, because it was our worst position last year (by WAR, it was the worst in MLB) and screams for fixing. However, two of our best prospects play 3B: Moncada & Devers; we're already paying a 3Bman $19M a year (Pablo); we have Shaw, Hernandez, Holt, Marrero and Rutledge in the system; and even the thought of moving Bogey to 3B when Dubon is ready is not an outlandish idea. Further down the road are possibilities like Dalbec & Chavis. This all makes it hard to go out and acquire a mulit-year 3B soultion, and one year, capable bridge players don't grow on trees.

 

Replacing Papi also runs into a similar position as 3B. We have so many promising and questionable players that might end up being blocked by adding a long contract at DH.

 

I do think getting an ace might be the best idea this winter. that would put us in a strong position to trade a Sp'er for whatever hole needs filling in July.

 

 

 

[Spudboy]

Why are we hung up on getting one of the big name relievers? Don't we have enough of those already?

 

I think the key to building a good pen is scouting and finding guys that have the stuff or are about to have the stuff to get the job done.

 

Every year we see tons of these types. I don't think that dropping a ton of money on even more Rps is a good idea. I say grab a few non-name types and see who pans out.

 

I would be surprised if DD made a big move or just about any move at 3rd base. You can't have 3-6 WAR players in the entire lineup. I'd love to have a Machado at third but I don't see that happening with Fatboy's contract hovering. I think that this team has enough inventory of corner IFs to cover that spot.

 

If DD is the type who does not make a move to replace the Ortiz production with a solid to comparable power bat or high OBP type because he worries about blocking a prospect then he is not qualified to run my team. The need is now, not one, two, or three years from now. I certainly don't want to wait for a prospect to come up and be Middlbrooks or Brentz types if I could have had a proven MLB bat doing the job and helping to strive toward a ring in 2017.

[moonslav59]

Why are we hung up on getting one of the big name relievers? Don't we have enough of those already?

 

We have one, Kimbrel, and he looks shaky.

 

 

I think the key to building a good pen is scouting and finding guys that have the stuff or are about to have the stuff to get the job done.

 

Easier said than done.

 

 

Every year we see tons of these types.

 

Yeah, on other teams.

 

 

I don't think that dropping a ton of money on even more Rps is a good idea.

 

Id' rather trade for one (like Robertson) than spend big on a closer and risk creating a pouting Kimbrel.

 

 

I say grab a few non-name types and see who pans out.

 

Name names.

 

 

I would be surprised if DD made a big move or just about any move at 3rd base. You can't have 3-6 WAR players in the entire lineup. I'd love to have a Machado at third but I don't see that happening with Fatboy's contract hovering. I think that this team has enough inventory of corner IFs to cover that spot.

 

I could see us waiting until midway through winter, check in on Pablo's weight, and if he's still bloated, maybe trade for a one year bridge to Moncada/Devers (maybe Frazier?).

 

 

If DD is the type who does not make a move to replace the Ortiz production with a solid to comparable power bat or high OBP type because he worries about blocking a prospect then he is not qualified to run my team. The need is now, not one, two, or three years from now. I certainly don't want to wait for a prospect to come up and be Middlbrooks or Brentz types if I could have had a proven MLB bat doing the job and helping to strive toward a ring in 2017.

 

There are other options than just trying to replace the irreplaceable. You can improve the team in other areas to make up for the loss at DH.

[Kimmi]

The only quote I ever saw regarding that came from his agent. He said only that if the Sox insisted on holding Lackey to that contract that he (Lackey) could consider retirement. The radio wags then translated that into "Lackey will retire next year if the Sox try to hold him to his contract". [paraphrased] And it took off from there.

 

Lackey also said after being traded to St. Louis that he'd honor that contract, something the Cards didn't hold him to.

 

I agree, there was never any direct quote from Lackey stating that he would not honor the contract. OTOH, he never came out and said that he would either, which I thought was a little odd. Yet, when he went to the Cards, he publicly stated that he would honor the contract with them.

 

It may have been nothing more than the media making a mountain out of a molehill, but I got the sense that there was something to the story. I fully admit that it's pure speculation on my part.

[Kimmi]

Agree, Spud. I can remember saying, "I can't believe this is happening".

 

The Sox gutted their pitching staff, signed a bunch of mediocre pitchers, and then sold it to the fans as having improved the team. They persuaded the fans that Porcillo was every bit as good as the three guys at the top of the Tiger's order - he just didn't get a chance to pitch, Wade Miley was an 'innings eater', and Masterson was going to morph from being mediocre to being a legitimate #2. Even more incredible to me is how many fans bought into it!

 

I was good with the team that the FO put together that offseason. And I was far from the only one. The Sox were the large favorites to win the division by both computer projection systems and by baseball analysts. I realize that the games still have to be played on the field, but when virtually all the projections had the Sox winning the division, that means that the FO put together a team that looks good on paper. And that is really what their job is - assemble a team that looks good on paper. They can't control what takes place on the field.

 

The pitching staff was not supposed to be stellar. They were supposed to be mediocre, but decent enough to keep the team in games to allow the offense to come through. The defense was supposed to be good enough to make the pitching better. The team fell short in all areas, but really should have been much better.

[Kimmi]

Sandoval never was anything more than a slightly better than mediocre 3B who had a good World Series. I believe he was signed so the Sox could make a splash.

 

Pablo should have been a fairly good upgrade over our 3B production from 2014. I didn't like the signing, but I honestly think that anyone who says they could foresee a negative WAR year from him is kidding themselves. Should we have expected some decline from him? Sure. But not anything to the degree that he had.

[Kimmi]

Why are we hung up on getting one of the big name relievers? Don't we have enough of those already?

 

I think the key to building a good pen is scouting and finding guys that have the stuff or are about to have the stuff to get the job done.

 

Every year we see tons of these types. I don't think that dropping a ton of money on even more Rps is a good idea. I say grab a few non-name types and see who pans out.

 

I would be surprised if DD made a big move or just about any move at 3rd base. You can't have 3-6 WAR players in the entire lineup. I'd love to have a Machado at third but I don't see that happening with Fatboy's contract hovering. I think that this team has enough inventory of corner IFs to cover that spot.

 

If DD is the type who does not make a move to replace the Ortiz production with a solid to comparable power bat or high OBP type because he worries about blocking a prospect then he is not qualified to run my team. The need is now, not one, two, or three years from now. I certainly don't want to wait for a prospect to come up and be Middlbrooks or Brentz types if I could have had a proven MLB bat doing the job and helping to strive toward a ring in 2017.

 

On this, you and I completely agree. Dombrowski should not spend big bucks on a reliever.

[S5Dewey]

I was good with the team that the FO put together that offseason. And I was far from the only one. The Sox were the large favorites to win the division by both computer projection systems and by baseball analysts. I realize that the games still have to be played on the field, but when virtually all the projections had the Sox winning the division, that means that the FO put together a team that looks good on paper. And that is really what their job is - assemble a team that looks good on paper. They can't control what takes place on the field.

 

The pitching staff was not supposed to be stellar. They were supposed to be mediocre, but decent enough to keep the team in games to allow the offense to come through. The defense was supposed to be good enough to make the pitching better. The team fell short in all areas, but really should have been much better.

 

Couldda, shoudda, wouldda. Thank you for pointing out - and reminding me - why I'm so skeptical of stat geeks and projections. IIRC we were supposed to have beaten the Guardians with two of their top pitchers gone and the Rangers were supposed to have beaten Toronto too.

 

All of these statistics and projections are just wonderful, just don't forget that they're frequently wrong.

[Kimmi]

Couldda, shoudda, wouldda. Thank you for pointing out - and reminding me - why I'm so skeptical of stat geeks and projections. IIRC we were supposed to have beaten the Guardians with two of their top pitchers gone and the Rangers were supposed to have beaten Toronto too.

 

All of these statistics and projections are just wonderful, just don't forget that they're frequently wrong.

 

True, but you missed the part about the baseball analysts, the non-stat geeks, the 'guys who actually watch the games', the 'guys who understand the human element' also largely favoring the Sox.

 

In other words, a whole bunch of people who know a whole lot about baseball, many who use stats and many who do not, agreed that the Sox had a team that should win the division.

 

You disagreed with their opinion, and it turns out that you were right, but I don't think you can fairly take away from the opinions of so many baseball savvy people who thought otherwise.

[Kimmi]

All of these statistics and projections are just wonderful, just don't forget that they're frequently wrong.

 

And yes, I understand that they are often wrong. But that doesn't change the fact that the team assembled looked good on paper, which means that the GM did his offseason job.

[Bellhorn04]

And yes, I understand that they are often wrong. But that doesn't change the fact that the team assembled looked good on paper, which means that the GM did his offseason job.

 

The 2015 pitching staff was an absolute crapshoot. Any projections were total guesses. The guesses that were made erred on the side of optimism. That can happen a lot, of course. That doesn't really exonerate Ben for putting together such a truly shaky staff.

[S5Dewey]

True, but you missed the part about the baseball analysts, the non-stat geeks, the 'guys who actually watch the games', the 'guys who understand the human element' also largely favoring the Sox.

 

In other words, a whole bunch of people who know a whole lot about baseball, many who use stats and many who do not, agreed that the Sox had a team that should win the division.

 

You disagreed with their opinion, and it turns out that you were right, but I don't think you can fairly take away from the opinions of so many baseball savvy people who thought otherwise.

 

Then what we're saying is that both the stat geeks and the baseball people can be wrong. I can buy into that. IMO there's room for both and we shouldn't diminish the input from either of them.

 

And BTW, I didn't disagree with their opinion. When you say "win their division" I'm not sure if you're referring to the regular season or the ALDS. The Sox outperfomed what I thought they'd do. I had them for 87 wins +/-2 and I'm pleased to be wrong. OTOH, I agreed with the analysts who said the Sox would get by Cleveland relatively easily and... look how that worked out.

[S5Dewey]

And yes, I understand that they are often wrong. But that doesn't change the fact that the team assembled looked good on paper, which means that the GM did his offseason job.

 

There's so much more to it than what's on paper though. As an extreme example, Albert Belle. This guy had a career OPS of >.900 but toward the end he was a keg of dynamite looking to explode. A terrible influence in the clubhouse. An extreme example on the reverse side of the coin is our own David Ortiz. Although he didn't play on the defensive side of the ball IMO he probably contributed more to the clubhouse and the development of our young players than anyone I can remember. But that part of his contribution doesn't show up in the stats. It's something the GM's have to "feel".

 

For a good GM there's much more to it than stats.

[Kimmi]

The 2015 pitching staff was an absolute crapshoot. Any projections were total guesses. The guesses that were made erred on the side of optimism. That can happen a lot, of course. That doesn't really exonerate Ben for putting together such a truly shaky staff.

 

Absolute crapshoot is a bit of an exaggeration, though I will concede that there were question marks. Still, I don't think the overall projections, which did not project greatness, only an average pitching staff, were not unrealistically optimistic. I have long since exonerated Ben, since I was good with the team he put together.

[Kimmi]

Then what we're saying is that both the stat geeks and the baseball people can be wrong. I can buy into that. IMO there's room for both and we shouldn't diminish the input from either of them.

 

And BTW, I didn't disagree with their opinion. When you say "win their division" I'm not sure if you're referring to the regular season or the ALDS. The Sox outperfomed what I thought they'd do. I had them for 87 wins +/-2 and I'm pleased to be wrong. OTOH, I agreed with the analysts who said the Sox would get by Cleveland relatively easily and... look how that worked out.

 

I am talking about the projections for the 2015 season. The Sox finished in last place and many people have posted that they knew that we did not have enough pitching or whatnot. My point is that there was a consensus among very knowledgeable baseball people that the team was good enough to win the division.

 

Yes, these people are often wrong in their predictions making predictions. I guess I just take exception to your statement that some fans fell for what the FO was trying to sell them. It was not a far fetched idea that the 2015 team could contend for the division.